Sevilla v Alaves — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 14 February 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
4 – 12
On target
2 – 1
Shots in box
2 – 10
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.75
Goals − xG
+0.65 – -0.40
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sevilla win
40.1%
Draw
29.1%
Alaves win
30.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sevilla are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWWWLLWWLD last 10
scored 14
from 10.1 xG
conceded 13
from 13.4 xG
Alaves are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDWWLWDWW last 10
scored 18
from 15.5 xG
conceded 11
from 9.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.26–1.07 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.29–1.29 | 1-1 13% | 48% | 53% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sevilla 0.35 xGAlaves 1.40 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sevilla attacking right
Alaves attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Neal Maupay |
| 12' |
Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nianzou Kouassi |
| 26' |
 Alaves |
Facundo Garcés | 0.41 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Alaves |
Youssef Lekhedim | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Sevilla |
Djibril Sow | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 46' |
Alaves |
Carles Aleñá | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antonio Martínez |
| 46' |
Alaves |
Facundo Garcés | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kike Salas |
| 50' |
Alaves |
Carles Aleñá | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Youssef Lekhedim |
| 57' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nahuel Tenaglia |
| 59' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.33 | From Corner | — | Goal | Carles Aleñá |
| 64' |
Alaves |
Carles Aleñá | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carles Aleñá |
| 75' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 79' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Ibáñez |
| 79' |
Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Alaves
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Martínez FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.05 | 0.42 |
| Facundo Garcés DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Lucas Boyé FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Youssef Lekhedim DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.27 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| Antonio Sivera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jon Pacheco Dozagarat DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Carles Aleñá ML | 88 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| Denis Suárez MC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Calebe MR | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Blanco MC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Ibáñez Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| Ángel Pérez Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ander Guevara Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Jon Guridi Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Suazo DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nemanja Gudelj DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Odisseas Vlachodimos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Kike Salas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| Akor Adams FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Lucien Agoume MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nianzou Kouassi DC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| Neal Maupay FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| Djibril Sow MC | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| César Azpilicueta DMR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| José Ángel Carmona Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Batista Mendy Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Isaac Romero Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chidera Ejuke Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juanlu Sanchez MC | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Federico Gattoni Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Peque Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |