Sevilla v Barcelona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 5 October 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 17
On target
5 – 8
Shots in box
12 – 14
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.89 – 0.81
Goals − xG
+1.10 – -1.48
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sevilla win
13.0%
Draw
16.4%
Barcelona win
70.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sevilla are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWWWLLWWLD last 10
scored 14
from 10.1 xG
conceded 13
from 13.4 xG
Barcelona are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWWLWLWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 24.5 xG
conceded 8
from 9.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.01–2.55 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.08–2.44 | 1-2 10% | 68% | 60% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sevilla 2.90 xGBarcelona 2.48 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sevilla attacking right
Barcelona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 Sevilla |
Alexis Sánchez | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 14' |
 Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pedri |
| 21' |
Sevilla |
José Ángel Carmona | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Isaac Romero |
| 24' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alexis Sánchez |
| 26' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Djibril Sow |
| 31' |
Barcelona |
Jules Koundé | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 34' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lucien Agoume |
| 36' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ruben Vargas |
| 42' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.25 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pau Cubarsí |
| 45' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Eric Garcia |
| 49' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dani Olmo |
| 51' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.25 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Pedri |
| 52' |
Sevilla |
Alexis Sánchez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 54' |
Sevilla |
Marcão | 0.10 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Sevilla |
Marcão | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 63' |
Barcelona |
Eric Garcia | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 63' |
Barcelona |
Pedri | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 67' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jules Koundé |
| 67' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dani Olmo |
| 70' |
Barcelona |
Pau Cubarsí | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Roony Bardghji |
| 71' |
Barcelona |
Pedri | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Roony Bardghji |
| 75' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.74 | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — | |
| 78' |
Barcelona |
Roony Bardghji | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedri |
| 80' |
Barcelona |
Roony Bardghji | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 89' |
Barcelona |
Roony Bardghji | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Robert Lewandowski |
| 89' |
Sevilla |
José Ángel Carmona | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lucien Agoume |
| 95' |
Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Chidera Ejuke |
| 97' |
Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adnan Januzaj |
| 100' |
Barcelona |
Roony Bardghji | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Sánchez AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.10 | 0.39 |
| José Ángel Carmona DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Marcão DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Odisseas Vlachodimos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Lucien Agoume DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 1.75 |
| César Azpilicueta DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriel Suazo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.62 |
| Ruben Vargas AML | 81 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| Batista Mendy DMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Isaac Romero FW | 69 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1.39 | 0.08 | 1.45 |
| Djibril Sow AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.72 |
| Akor Adams Sub | 21 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Nemanja Gudelj Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Peque Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Adnan Januzaj Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Chidera Ejuke Sub | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.42 |
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Lewandowski FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.91 | 0.31 | 0.90 |
| Marcus Rashford AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.54 | 0.11 | 0.75 |
| Pedri DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.29 | 0.78 |
| Pau Cubarsí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.25 | 0.76 |
| Jules Koundé DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.72 |
| Dani Olmo AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.55 |
| Wojciech Szczesny GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Frenkie de Jong DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Ferrán Torres AML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Ronald Araújo DC | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Gerard Martín DL | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Eric Garcia Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.90 |
| Álex Balde Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Roony Bardghji Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.78 | 0.13 | 0.91 |
| Andreas Christensen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |