Sevilla v Espanyol — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 9 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 9
On target
6 – 5
Shots in box
11 – 5
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.12 – 0.03
Goals − xG
+0.54 – +0.60
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sevilla win
48.1%
Draw
24.8%
Espanyol win
27.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sevilla have scored 14 from 12.7 expected and conceded 17 from 16.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWLDWWLDL last 10
scored 14
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 16.3 xG
Espanyol have scored 12 from 13.4 expected and conceded 13 from 13.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWLLDL last 10
scored 12
from 13.4 xG
conceded 13
from 13.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.60–1.14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.37–1.10 | 1-1 13% | 45% | 50% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sevilla 1.46 xGEspanyol 0.40 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sevilla attacking right
Espanyol attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 4' |
 Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 4' |
Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 5' |
Sevilla |
Neal Maupay | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nemanja Gudelj |
| 5' |
Sevilla |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 9' |
Sevilla |
Ruben Vargas | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Neal Maupay |
| 14' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ruben Vargas |
| 24' |
Espanyol |
Edu Expósito | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 26' |
Sevilla |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 26' |
Sevilla |
Ruben Vargas | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Isaac Romero |
| 41' |
Sevilla |
Ruben Vargas | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | José Ángel Carmona |
| 45' |
Sevilla |
José Ángel Carmona | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Neal Maupay |
| 45' |
Sevilla |
Ruben Vargas | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | José Ángel Carmona |
| 47' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Sevilla |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kike Salas |
| 54' |
Espanyol |
Tyrhys Dolan | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ramón Terrats |
| 55' |
Espanyol |
Tyrhys Dolan | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 55' |
Espanyol |
Tyrhys Dolan | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Roberto Fernández |
| 61' |
Espanyol |
Rubén Sánchez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
Sevilla |
José Ángel Carmona | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 68' |
Sevilla |
Oso | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Neal Maupay |
| 69' |
Sevilla |
Andrés Castrín | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alexis Sánchez |
| 69' |
Sevilla |
Juanlu Sanchez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Chidera Ejuke |
| 76' |
Sevilla |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oso |
| 79' |
Sevilla |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Chidera Ejuke |
| 81' |
Sevilla |
Andrés Castrín | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Djibril Sow |
| 84' |
Sevilla |
Chidera Ejuke | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alexis Sánchez |
| 95' |
Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Omar El Hilali |
| 98' |
Espanyol |
José Salinas | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neal Maupay FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.58 | 0.14 | 0.81 |
| Nemanja Gudelj MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.58 | 1.00 |
| Kike Salas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.29 |
| Andrés Castrín DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Chidera Ejuke ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.22 |
| Odisseas Vlachodimos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ruben Vargas MR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 0.25 |
| José Ángel Carmona DR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.32 |
| Gabriel Suazo DL | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Lucien Agoume MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Isaac Romero FW | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Alexis Sánchez Sub | 40 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| Djibril Sow Sub | 28 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Oso Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| Juanlu Sanchez Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Akor Adams Sub | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrhys Dolan AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Fernando Calero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Urko Gonzalez DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omar El Hilali DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Edu Expósito DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| Roberto Fernández FW | 87 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Carlos Romero DL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ramón Terrats AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Rubén Sánchez AMR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Charles Pickel Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| José Salinas Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jofre Carreras Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kike García Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pol Lozano Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |