Sevilla v Getafe — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 25 August 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 9
On target
3 – 6
Shots in box
8 – 3
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.03
Goals − xG
+0.17 – +0.39
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sevilla win
35.8%
Draw
26.1%
Getafe win
38.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sevilla are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWWWLLWWLD last 10
scored 14
from 10.1 xG
conceded 13
from 13.4 xG
Getafe are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLDWLWLWLD last 10
scored 6
from 9.3 xG
conceded 11
from 12.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.03–1.08 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–0.87 | 1-0 15% | 38% | 43% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sevilla 0.83 xGGetafe 1.61 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sevilla attacking right
Getafe attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Sevilla |
Juanlu Sanchez | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dodi Lukebakio |
| 11' |
Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucien Agoume |
| 14' |
 Getafe |
Adrián Liso | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Luis Milla |
| 29' |
Getafe |
Juan Iglesias | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Milla |
| 38' |
Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.40 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Dodi Lukebakio |
| 40' |
Getafe |
Christantus Uche | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Milla |
| 44' |
Getafe |
Juan Iglesias | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 49' |
Getafe |
Diego Rico | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Getafe |
Adrián Liso | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mario Martín |
| 50' |
Getafe |
Adrián Liso | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Luis Milla |
| 50' |
Getafe |
Christantus Uche | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 55' |
Sevilla |
Andrés Castrín | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Dodi Lukebakio |
| 58' |
Sevilla |
Andrés Castrín | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Dodi Lukebakio |
| 58' |
Sevilla |
Chidera Ejuke | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 61' |
Sevilla |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dodi Lukebakio |
| 70' |
Sevilla |
Andrés Castrín | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Dodi Lukebakio |
| 70' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Andrés Castrín |
| 74' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Juanlu Sanchez |
| 86' |
Sevilla |
Peque | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dodi Lukebakio |
| 93' |
Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Adrià Pedrosa |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrián Liso FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Christantus Uche FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Mauro Arambarri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Juan Iglesias DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Diego Rico DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mario Martín MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Luis Milla MC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| Domingos Duarte DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djené Dakonam DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Davinchi DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ismael Bekhoucha Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akor Adams FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Andrés Castrín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.54 |
| Juanlu Sanchez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.51 |
| Nemanja Gudelj DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Lucien Agoume DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.52 |
| Kike Salas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Ørjan Nyland GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| José Ángel Carmona DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Dodi Lukebakio AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| Chidera Ejuke AML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ruben Vargas AMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Peque Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Isaac Romero Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Adrià Pedrosa Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.06 |