Sevilla v Girona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 8 February 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 15
On target
3 – 6
Shots in box
6 – 10
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 1.19
Goals − xG
+0.04 – -1.62
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sevilla win
48.8%
Draw
26.3%
Girona win
24.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sevilla have scored 14 from 12.7 expected and conceded 17 from 16.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWLDWWLDL last 10
scored 14
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 16.3 xG
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.57–1.05 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.59–1.19 | 1-1 12% | 53% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sevilla 0.96 xGGirona 2.62 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sevilla attacking right
Girona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Girona |
Thomas Lemar | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Hugo Rincón |
| 12' |
Girona |
Thomas Lemar | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 16' |
 Sevilla |
Peque | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 18' |
Girona |
Bryan Gil Salvatierra | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 22' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vladyslav Vanat |
| 28' |
Sevilla |
José Ángel Carmona | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Akor Adams |
| 30' |
Girona |
Fran Beltrán | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thomas Lemar |
| 30' |
Girona |
Fran Beltrán | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Vitor Reis |
| 33' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bryan Gil Salvatierra |
| 39' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arnau Martinez |
| 40' |
Sevilla |
José Ángel Carmona | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Neal Maupay |
| 46' |
Girona |
Claudio Echeverri | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Daley Blind |
| 53' |
Sevilla |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Girona |
Bryan Gil Salvatierra | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Thomas Lemar |
| 59' |
Girona |
Arnau Martinez | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Thomas Lemar |
| 59' |
Girona |
Hugo Rincón | 0.26 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Arnau Martinez |
| 59' |
Girona |
Thomas Lemar | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Sevilla |
Neal Maupay | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 63' |
Sevilla |
Oso | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Chidera Ejuke |
| 65' |
Sevilla |
Neal Maupay | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Juanlu Sanchez |
| 72' |
Sevilla |
Oso | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Neal Maupay |
| 82' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Axel Witsel |
| 83' |
Sevilla |
Alexis Sánchez | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Oso |
| 85' |
Sevilla |
Neal Maupay | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Oso |
| 91' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 97' |
Girona |
Cristhian Stuani | 0.74 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Tsygankov AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.77 | 0.05 | 0.77 |
| Hugo Rincón DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Arnau Martinez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.80 | 0.56 |
| Paulo Gazzaniga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Vitor Reis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Iván Martín DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Daley Blind DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.21 |
| Thomas Lemar AMC | 75 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.57 | 0.17 | 1.18 |
| Bryan Gil Salvatierra AML | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 1.16 |
| Fran Beltrán DMC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Vladyslav Vanat FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Claudio Echeverri Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Axel Witsel Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Alejandro Francés Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joel Roca Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cristhian Stuani Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neal Maupay FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.62 | 0.04 | 0.66 |
| Nemanja Gudelj DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Kike Salas DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Odisseas Vlachodimos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Lucien Agoume MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Gabriel Suazo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Akor Adams FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Batista Mendy MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| José Ángel Carmona DR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Peque MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| César Azpilicueta DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oso Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| Chidera Ejuke Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Juanlu Sanchez Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Djibril Sow Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Alexis Sánchez Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.07 |