Sevilla v Levante — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 4 January 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 6
On target
7 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 4
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.28
Set-piece xG
1.28 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-1.94 – +1.35
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sevilla win
50.9%
Draw
22.8%
Levante win
26.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sevilla are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWWWLLWWLD last 10
scored 14
from 10.1 xG
conceded 13
from 13.4 xG
Levante are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DLWWWLLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 17.8 xG
conceded 16
from 14.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.76–1.20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.80–1.33 | 1-1 10% | 61% | 61% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sevilla 1.94 xGLevante 1.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sevilla attacking right
Levante attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Sevilla |
Alexis Sánchez | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Juanlu Sanchez |
| 18' |
 Levante |
Iker Losada | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kareem Tunde |
| 37' |
Levante |
Carlos Álvarez | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 38' |
Sevilla |
Oso | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucien Agoume |
| 44' |
Sevilla |
Djibril Sow | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Peque |
| 46' |
Levante |
Iker Losada | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Iván Romero |
| 48' |
Sevilla |
Juanlu Sanchez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Djibril Sow |
| 50' |
Sevilla |
Batista Mendy | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Juanlu Sanchez |
| 50' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.09 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 51' |
Sevilla |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adnan Januzaj |
| 64' |
Sevilla |
Lucien Agoume | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adnan Januzaj |
| 66' |
Sevilla |
Adnan Januzaj | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Batista Mendy |
| 66' |
Sevilla |
José Ángel Carmona | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adnan Januzaj |
| 69' |
Levante |
Pablo Martínez | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.53 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Morales |
| 81' |
Sevilla |
Adnan Januzaj | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Batista Mendy |
| 84' |
Sevilla |
Alexis Sánchez | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Adnan Januzaj |
| 91' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.74 | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 91' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.37 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 93' |
Levante |
Carlos Álvarez | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Kervin Arriaga |
Players
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Sánchez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Djibril Sow MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.27 |
| Kike Salas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lucien Agoume MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| Batista Mendy MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.39 |
| Oso DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| José Ángel Carmona DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Nemanja Gudelj DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Odisseas Vlachodimos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Juanlu Sanchez DMR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| Peque FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| Adnan Januzaj Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.06 | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| Isaac Romero Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.17 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
Levante
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Álvarez AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 1.21 |
| Adrián De la Fuente DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeremy Toljan DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| Matías Moreno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Mat Ryan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Kervin Arriaga DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.68 |
| Pablo Martínez DMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Iván Romero FW | 82 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.93 |
| Iker Losada AML | 73 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Diego Pampín DL | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kareem Tunde AMR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.77 |
| Carlos Espí Sub | 23 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Morales Sub | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| Alan Matturro Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Unai Vencedor Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |