Sevilla v Mallorca — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 24 February 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 13
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
11 – 12
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.91 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-0.58 – -0.65
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sevilla win
53.1%
Draw
24.0%
Mallorca win
22.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sevilla are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWWWLLWWLD last 10
scored 14
from 10.1 xG
conceded 13
from 13.4 xG
Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLWDLLW last 10
scored 14
from 14.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.73–1.06 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sevilla 1.58 xGMallorca 1.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sevilla attacking right
Mallorca attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Mallorca |
Johan Mojica | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Maffeo |
| 14' |
 Sevilla |
Dodi Lukebakio | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Juanlu Sanchez |
| 18' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.11 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Saúl Ñíguez |
| 23' |
Sevilla |
Dodi Lukebakio | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Adrià Pedrosa |
| 28' |
Sevilla |
Ruben Vargas | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Maffeo |
| 37' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Dani Rodríguez |
| 41' |
Sevilla |
Djibril Sow | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ruben Vargas |
| 46' |
Mallorca |
Omar Mascarell | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Dani Rodríguez |
| 46' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Loic Bade |
| 46' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.49 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 47' |
Sevilla |
Ruben Vargas | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Sevilla |
Saúl Ñíguez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Mallorca |
Takuma Asano | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Mallorca |
Raíllo | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Dani Rodríguez |
| 55' |
Sevilla |
Saúl Ñíguez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Isaac Romero |
| 57' |
Sevilla |
Dodi Lukebakio | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Saúl Ñíguez |
| 60' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Ruben Vargas |
| 60' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.08 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Isaac Romero |
| 63' |
Sevilla |
Adrià Pedrosa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Djibril Sow |
| 66' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Juanlu Sanchez |
| 67' |
Sevilla |
Adrià Pedrosa | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Saúl Ñíguez |
| 67' |
Sevilla |
José Ángel Carmona | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Mallorca |
Roberto Navarro | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vedat Muriqi |
| 77' |
Mallorca |
Roberto Navarro | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 79' |
Mallorca |
Cyle Larin | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 83' |
Mallorca |
Cyle Larin | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 84' |
Mallorca |
Johan Mojica | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Abdón Prats |
| 84' |
Mallorca |
Raíllo | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Antonio Sánchez |
| 86' |
Sevilla |
Chidera Ejuke | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adrià Pedrosa |
| 90' |
Mallorca |
Martin Valjent | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 93' |
Sevilla |
Lucien Agoume | 0.08 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kike Salas DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.78 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Dodi Lukebakio AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Isaac Romero FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| Saúl Ñíguez DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| Adrià Pedrosa DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| José Ángel Carmona DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Loic Bade DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Ørjan Nyland GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Juanlu Sanchez AMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| Ruben Vargas AML | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| Djibril Sow DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Lucien Agoume Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Chidera Ejuke Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Manu Bueno Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Mallorca
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Mojica DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.58 | 0.72 |
| Raíllo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omar Mascarell MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martin Valjent DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Dominik Greif GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Copete DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Maffeo DR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Vedat Muriqi FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.46 | 0.66 |
| Sergi Darder MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dani Rodríguez MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| Takuma Asano FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Roberto Navarro Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 1.10 |
| Cyle Larin Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Antonio Sánchez Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.49 |
| Abdón Prats Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Valery Fernández Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |