Sevilla v Osasuna — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Sevilla

16:00 UTC

Osasuna

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 1,136h before kick-off

Sevilla win

36.4%

model 36.4%

Draw

27.2%

model 27.9%

Osasuna win

36.4%

model 35.7%

362736

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (567 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.1%
1-0 11.2%
0-1 11.0%
0-0 9.4%
2-1 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	42.1%	Under 2.5	57.9%
BTTS yes	48.1%	BTTS no	51.9%
Sevilla 1+	69.6%	Sevilla 2+	33.4%
Osasuna 1+	69.1%	Osasuna 2+	32.8%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.18. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

92/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Sevilla to win neither half

Win either half · usually 37%

53.9% fair odds 1.86

strong signal · 1076 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Osasuna (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 79%

83.7% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 453 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Sevilla have created 1.01 xG a match over their last five while Osasuna have allowed 1.27.
At home Sevilla average 1.30 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Sevilla have an estimated 36.4% win probability, against 36.4% for Osasuna and 27.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.19 for Sevilla and 1.18 for Osasuna.

Why Sevilla

Sevilla have created 1.01 xG a match over their last five while Osasuna have allowed 1.27. At home Sevilla average 1.30 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.2%. A combined 2.37 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.19 to 1.18. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Osasuna can win

Osasuna have created 1.51 xG a match over their last five while Sevilla have allowed 1.34. Away from home Osasuna average 1.25 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Sevilla were missing 1.03 expected goal involvements a match against 0.45.

Key players

Sevilla's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Akor Adams (0.31), Neal Maupay (0.27), Robbie Ure (0.27). Osasuna's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ante Budimir (0.61), Víctor Muñoz (0.27), Rubén García (0.20).

Availability

2 of Sevilla's top three contributors did not start their last match. Sevilla had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.05 expected goal involvements a match. 45% of Sevilla's last eleven are new to the club this window. Reported unavailable for Sevilla: Arouna Sangante (suspended). 1 of Osasuna's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Sevilla: 43% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.12 xG a match from set pieces. Osasuna: 47% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 9.0 faced, 0.25 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Sevilla are the model's most likely outcome at 36.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.1%. Confidence 92/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Sevilla are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

LWWWLLWWLD last 10 scored 14 from 10.1 xG conceded 13 from 13.4 xG

Osasuna are finishing below their chances — 3.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WLLLLLDWWL last 10 scored 12 from 15.1 xG conceded 17 from 12.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	362836	1.19–1.18	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	332938	1.07–1.15	1-1 13%	38%	45%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla to win	36.4%	37.0%	46.8%	0.79×	2.70
Osasuna to win	35.7%	36.9%	28.1%	1.31×	2.71
Draw	27.9%	27.6%	25.2%	1.10×	3.62

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla & not both score	21.5%	22.6%	25.3%	0.89×	4.43
Osasuna & not both score	21.0%	22.6%	14.6%	1.55×	4.43
Draw & both teams score	18.5%	17.8%	20.2%	0.88×	5.63
Sevilla & both teams score	14.9%	12.2%	21.7%	0.56×	8.20
Osasuna & both teams score	14.7%	12.2%	13.7%	0.89×	8.21
Draw & not both score	9.4%	7.3%	5.1%	1.44×	13.63

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla & under 3.5	28.3%	25.5%	33.0%	0.77×	3.92
Osasuna & under 3.5	27.8%	25.5%	21.7%	1.18×	3.92
Sevilla & over 1.5	25.2%	25.5%	34.1%	0.75×	3.93
Osasuna & over 1.5	24.7%	21.5%	21.2%	1.02×	4.65
Draw & under 2.5	22.5%	21.5%	20.1%	1.07×	4.65
Draw & under 3.5	22.5%	21.5%	20.1%	1.07×	4.65
Sevilla & over 2.5	18.6%	17.6%	28.0%	0.63×	5.69
Draw & over 1.5	18.5%	17.6%	20.2%	0.87×	5.69
Osasuna & over 2.5	18.2%	17.6%	16.7%	1.05×	5.69
Sevilla & under 2.5	17.8%	17.6%	18.9%	0.93×	5.69
Osasuna & under 2.5	17.5%	17.6%	11.6%	1.52×	5.69
Sevilla & under 1.5	11.2%	12.7%	12.8%	0.99×	7.87
Osasuna & under 1.5	11.0%	12.7%	7.1%	1.79×	7.87
Draw & under 1.5	9.4%	7.5%	5.1%	1.46×	13.40
Sevilla & over 3.5	8.1%	7.5%	13.9%	0.53×	13.41
Osasuna & over 3.5	7.9%	7.5%	6.6%	1.13×	13.41
Draw & over 2.5	5.4%	7.5%	5.2%	1.42×	13.42
Draw & over 3.5	5.4%	7.5%	5.2%	1.42×	13.42

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla (1UP)	51.5%	52.4%	63.2%	0.83×	1.91
Osasuna (1UP)	50.9%	52.3%	47.1%	1.11×	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla (2UP)	36.4%	40.4%	48.7%	0.83×	2.48
Osasuna (2UP)	35.7%	40.4%	29.7%	1.36×	2.48

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	37.0%	37.5%	33.0%	1.14×	2.67
Sevilla to win 2nd half	35.3%	37.4%	39.5%	0.95×	2.67
Osasuna to win 2nd half	27.7%	27.5%	27.7%	0.99×	3.64

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna (+2.5)	95.0%	92.4%	90.0%	1.03×	1.08
Osasuna (+1.5)	84.6%	82.4%	79.2%	1.04×	1.21
Sevilla (+0.5)	64.3%	64.1%	71.9%	0.89×	1.56
Osasuna (+0.5)	63.6%	64.1%	53.2%	1.21×	1.56
Sevilla (-0.5)	36.4%	35.9%	46.8%	0.77×	2.79
Osasuna (-0.5)	35.7%	35.9%	28.1%	1.27×	2.79
Sevilla (-1.5)	15.4%	17.6%	20.8%	0.85×	5.67
Sevilla (-2.5)	5.0%	7.6%	10.0%	0.77×	13.12

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna to concede	69.6%	71.4%	80.4%	0.89×	1.40
Osasuna clean sheet	30.4%	28.6%	19.6%	1.46×	3.50

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna clean sheet in 1st half	67.9%	68.4%	51.9%	1.32×	1.46
Osasuna to concede in 1st half	32.1%	31.6%	48.1%	0.66×	3.17

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna under 6.5 corners	91.9%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Osasuna under 5.5 corners	84.9%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Osasuna under 4.5 corners	73.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Osasuna over 2.5 corners	61.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Osasuna under 3.5 corners	58.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Osasuna over 3.5 corners	42.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Osasuna under 2.5 corners	38.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Osasuna over 4.5 corners	26.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Osasuna over 5.5 corners	15.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Osasuna over 6.5 corners	8.1%	10.0%	—	—	9.98

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna under 3.5 goals	96.8%	97.3%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Osasuna under 2.5 goals	88.5%	89.0%	90.0%	0.99×	1.12
Osasuna over 0.5 goals	69.1%	67.3%	69.7%	0.96×	1.49
Osasuna under 1.5 goals	67.2%	67.2%	68.1%	0.99×	1.49
Osasuna over 1.5 goals	32.8%	32.8%	31.9%	1.03×	3.05
Osasuna under 0.5 goals	30.9%	32.7%	30.3%	1.08×	3.06
Osasuna over 2.5 goals	11.5%	11.0%	10.0%	1.11×	9.07
Osasuna over 3.5 goals	3.2%	2.7%	2.7%	0.98×	37.30

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna under 1.5 in 1st half	90.9%	93.2%	93.3%	1.00×	1.07
Osasuna under 0.5 in 1st half	60.5%	63.5%	63.4%	1.00×	1.58
Osasuna over 0.5 in 1st half	39.5%	36.5%	36.6%	1.00×	2.74
Osasuna over 1.5 in 1st half	9.1%	6.8%	6.7%	1.01×	14.68

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla (away no bet)	56.6%	58.9%	65.1%	0.91×	1.70
Draw (away no bet)	43.4%	41.1%	34.9%	1.18×	2.43

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna even goals	54.8%	52.5%	53.9%	0.97×	1.91
Osasuna odd goals	45.2%	47.5%	46.1%	1.03×	2.10

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	90.3%	92.0%	86.9%	1.06×	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	9.7%	8.0%	13.1%	0.61×	12.47

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	56.1%	55.7%	62.4%	0.89×	1.80
Both halves under 1.5 goals	43.9%	44.3%	37.6%	1.18×	2.26

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	48.1%	47.7%	52.3%	0.91×	2.09
Sevilla to score 2+ in a row	26.5%	25.1%	34.3%	0.73×	3.98
Osasuna to score 2+ in a row	26.0%	25.1%	23.6%	1.06×	3.98
Either team to score 3+ in a row	14.8%	12.2%	18.9%	0.65×	8.17
Sevilla to score 3+ in a row	7.6%	7.3%	13.0%	0.57×	13.63
Osasuna to score 3+ in a row	7.3%	7.3%	6.4%	1.15×	13.64

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla corners (+3.5)	94.3%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Sevilla corners (+2.5)	90.0%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Sevilla corners (+1.5)	83.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Osasuna corners (+3.5)	70.3%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Osasuna corners (+2.5)	59.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Sevilla corners (-1.5)	52.1%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Osasuna corners (+1.5)	47.9%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Sevilla corners (-2.5)	40.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Sevilla corners (-3.5)	29.7%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Osasuna corners (-1.5)	16.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Osasuna corners (-2.5)	10.0%	15.5%	—	—	6.46
Osasuna corners (-3.5)	5.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.57

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	53.6%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
9-11 corners	27.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	18.8%	22.7%	—	—	4.40

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	87.1%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	81.2%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	73.7%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	64.4%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	58.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	53.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	46.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	42.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	35.6%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	26.3%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 11.5 corners	18.8%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Over 12.5 corners	12.9%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.1%	11.6%	15.1%	0.77×	8.63
1-0	11.2%	11.6%	12.8%	0.90×	8.64
0-1	11.0%	11.6%	7.1%	1.63×	8.64
0-0	9.4%	7.3%	5.1%	1.43×	13.74
1-2	7.7%	7.3%	8.3%	0.87×	13.74
2-1	7.8%	7.3%	9.7%	0.75×	13.74
2-0	6.6%	7.3%	6.2%	1.17×	13.75
0-2	6.5%	7.3%	4.6%	1.58×	13.75
2-2	4.6%	1.8%	4.4%	0.41×	55.39
0-3	2.5%	1.8%	2.0%	0.91×	55.45
1-3	3.0%	1.8%	1.9%	0.97×	55.43
3-0	2.6%	1.8%	4.6%	0.39×	55.44
3-1	3.1%	1.8%	3.6%	0.50×	55.43
2-3	1.8%	1.8%	2.2%	0.80×	55.46
3-2	1.8%	1.8%	3.2%	0.56×	55.46
Any other score	1.5%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.47
0-4	0.7%	1.8%	0.9%	2.07×	55.49
1-4	0.9%	1.8%	0.5%	3.62×	55.49
2-4	0.5%	1.8%	0.5%	3.62×	55.50
3-3	0.7%	1.8%	1.0%	1.81×	55.49
3-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.4%	4.82×	55.50
4-0	0.8%	1.8%	1.6%	1.11×	55.49
4-1	0.9%	1.8%	2.0%	0.90×	55.49
4-2	0.5%	1.8%	1.4%	1.32×	55.50
4-3	0.2%	1.8%	0.7%	2.41×	55.50
4-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.1%	14.47×	55.51

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna leading at HT (DNB)	57.9%	56.8%	37.7%	1.51×	1.76
Sevilla leading at HT (DNB)	42.1%	43.2%	62.3%	0.69×	2.32

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla or Osasuna (12)	72.1%	72.4%	74.8%	0.97×	1.38
Sevilla or draw (1X)	64.3%	63.1%	71.9%	0.88×	1.59
Osasuna or draw (X2)	63.6%	63.0%	53.2%	1.18×	1.59

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna or draw at HT	78.7%	78.8%	64.5%	1.22×	1.27
Sevilla or draw at HT	70.7%	71.4%	78.5%	0.91×	1.40
Sevilla or Osasuna at HT	50.5%	51.9%	56.8%	0.91×	1.93

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla or draw (1UP)	64.3%	67.8%	78.2%	0.87×	1.48
Osasuna or draw (1UP)	63.6%	67.8%	60.1%	1.13×	1.48

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla or draw in 2nd half	72.3%	72.5%	72.3%	1.00×	1.38
Osasuna or draw in 2nd half	64.7%	62.6%	60.5%	1.03×	1.60
Sevilla or Osasuna in 2nd half	63.0%	62.5%	67.0%	0.93×	1.60

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	68.2%	66.2%	62.2%	1.06×	1.51
Neither half drawn	31.8%	33.8%	37.8%	0.89×	2.96

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla (DNB)	50.5%	52.3%	62.5%	0.84×	1.91
Osasuna (DNB)	49.5%	47.7%	37.5%	1.27×	2.10

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla to score first	45.6%	46.1%	55.4%	0.83×	2.17
Osasuna to score first	45.0%	46.0%	39.6%	1.16×	2.17
No goal scored	9.4%	6.3%	5.1%	1.23×	15.86

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	51.9%	52.9%	44.7%	1.18×	1.89
Both teams to score	48.1%	47.1%	55.3%	0.85×	2.12

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	44.8%	42.4%	35.4%	1.20×	2.36
Both score & over 2.5	35.0%	34.5%	40.3%	0.86×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	13.1%	11.7%	15.1%	0.78×	8.52
Not both score & over 2.5	7.2%	8.7%	9.5%	0.92×	11.49

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	89.0%	85.6%	86.2%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	11.0%	14.4%	13.8%	1.04×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	73.0%	70.5%	71.4%	0.99×	1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.0%	29.5%	28.6%	1.03×	3.38

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	63.7%	59.6%	60.3%	0.99×	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	23.6%	24.4%	23.1%	1.06×	4.10
Both score 1st half only	9.3%	6.6%	11.2%	0.58×	15.26
Both score in both halves	3.4%	4.8%	5.6%	0.85×	20.85

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	87.3%	85.5%	83.3%	1.03×	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	12.7%	14.5%	16.7%	0.87×	6.91

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	54.6%	54.7%	45.2%	1.21×	1.83
A goal in each half	45.4%	45.3%	54.8%	0.83×	2.21

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.0%	45.9%	49.8%	0.92×	2.18
0-1 goals	31.6%	31.6%	24.8%	1.27×	3.17
4-6 goals	20.3%	22.7%	23.4%	0.97×	4.40
7+ goals	1.1%	1.9%	2.2%	0.86×	51.92

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna to score exactly 1	36.3%	34.6%	38.0%	0.91×	2.89
Osasuna to score exactly 0	30.9%	33.2%	30.3%	1.10×	3.01
Osasuna to score exactly 2	21.3%	23.9%	22.0%	1.09×	4.18
Osasuna to score 3+	11.5%	13.4%	10.0%	1.34×	7.48

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla to score exactly 1	36.2%	36.0%	38.4%	0.94×	2.78
Sevilla to score exactly 0	30.4%	30.5%	19.6%	1.56×	3.28
Sevilla to score exactly 2	21.5%	22.9%	22.7%	1.01×	4.36
Sevilla to score 3+	11.8%	13.4%	19.7%	0.68×	7.45

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	49.5%	48.1%	43.2%	1.11×	2.08
Osasuna leading at HT	29.3%	28.6%	21.5%	1.33×	3.49
Sevilla leading at HT	21.3%	21.2%	35.5%	0.60×	4.71

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla -1: 2	63.6%	60.9%	—	—	1.64
Sevilla -1: X	21.0%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
Sevilla -1: 1	15.4%	18.8%	—	—	5.31

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna (0:1)	63.6%	59.9%	53.2%	1.13×	1.67
Draw (0:1)	21.0%	24.4%	26.2%	0.93×	4.10
Sevilla (0:1)	15.4%	18.2%	20.8%	0.88×	5.49

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna (0:2)	84.6%	83.7%	79.2%	1.06×	1.19
Draw (0:2)	10.3%	11.7%	11.0%	1.06×	8.57
Sevilla (0:2)	5.0%	7.1%	10.0%	0.71×	14.06

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna (0:3)	95.0%	92.7%	90.0%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	3.7%	2.3%	7.1%	0.33×	42.79
Sevilla (0:3)	1.3%	2.3%	3.0%	0.77×	43.31

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna (0:4)	98.7%	98.1%	97.0%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	2.4%	0.52×	80.82
Sevilla (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	0.7%	1.65×	81.21

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla (1:0)	64.3%	65.5%	71.9%	0.91×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	20.8%	22.9%	17.7%	1.29×	4.37
Osasuna (1:0)	14.9%	11.9%	10.6%	1.12×	8.44

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla (2:0)	85.1%	89.1%	89.4%	1.00×	1.12
Draw (2:0)	10.1%	12.0%	6.8%	1.75×	8.33
Osasuna (2:0)	4.8%	2.7%	3.9%	0.71×	36.64

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	50.9%	50.5%	51.3%	0.98×	1.98
Halves equal	26.4%	26.1%	22.5%	1.16×	3.83
1st half highest scoring	22.7%	23.2%	26.3%	0.88×	4.32

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla to concede	69.1%	67.0%	69.7%	0.96×	1.49
Sevilla clean sheet	30.9%	33.0%	30.3%	1.09×	3.03

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla clean sheet in 1st half	60.5%	63.3%	63.4%	1.00×	1.58
Sevilla to concede in 1st half	39.5%	36.7%	36.6%	1.00×	2.72

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla over 2.5 corners	83.1%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Sevilla under 6.5 corners	71.9%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Sevilla over 3.5 corners	69.6%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Sevilla under 5.5 corners	59.7%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Sevilla over 4.5 corners	54.6%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Sevilla under 4.5 corners	45.4%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Sevilla over 5.5 corners	40.3%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Sevilla under 3.5 corners	30.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Sevilla over 6.5 corners	28.1%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Sevilla under 2.5 corners	16.9%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla under 3.5 goals	96.7%	97.7%	92.7%	1.05×	1.02
Sevilla under 2.5 goals	88.2%	87.8%	80.3%	1.09×	1.14
Sevilla over 0.5 goals	69.6%	68.9%	80.4%	0.86×	1.45
Sevilla under 1.5 goals	66.6%	68.7%	57.8%	1.19×	1.46
Sevilla over 1.5 goals	33.4%	31.3%	42.2%	0.74×	3.20
Sevilla under 0.5 goals	30.4%	31.1%	19.6%	1.59×	3.21
Sevilla over 2.5 goals	11.8%	12.2%	19.7%	0.62×	8.21
Sevilla over 3.5 goals	3.3%	2.3%	7.3%	0.31×	44.05

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla under 1.5 in 1st half	94.2%	93.2%	86.0%	1.08×	1.07
Sevilla under 0.5 in 1st half	67.9%	69.1%	51.9%	1.33×	1.45
Sevilla over 0.5 in 1st half	32.1%	30.9%	48.1%	0.64×	3.23
Sevilla over 1.5 in 1st half	5.8%	6.8%	14.0%	0.48×	14.76

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna (home no bet)	56.1%	54.2%	52.8%	1.03×	1.84
Draw (home no bet)	43.9%	45.8%	47.2%	0.97×	2.19

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla even goals	54.6%	50.3%	47.4%	1.06×	1.99
Sevilla odd goals	45.4%	49.7%	52.6%	0.95×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	41.1%	40.4%	32.1%	1.26×	2.48
HT 0-1	20.6%	22.6%	16.2%	1.39×	4.43
HT 1-0	15.9%	18.9%	22.7%	0.83×	5.30
HT 1-1	8.0%	7.7%	10.1%	0.76×	12.99
HT 0-2	5.2%	7.7%	3.1%	2.46×	13.03
HT 2-0	3.1%	2.5%	6.2%	0.40×	39.82
Any other HT score	2.2%	2.5%	4.5%	0.56×	39.88
HT 1-2	2.0%	2.5%	1.5%	1.67×	39.89
HT 2-1	1.6%	2.5%	3.2%	0.77×	39.91
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.5%	1.2%	2.00×	39.98

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna at HT / Osasuna at FT	20.6%	21.4%	12.9%	1.66×	4.68
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	18.3%	16.8%	14.0%	1.20×	5.96
Draw at HT / Sevilla at FT	17.5%	16.8%	18.0%	0.93×	5.96
Sevilla at HT / Sevilla at FT	16.2%	16.8%	26.5%	0.63×	5.97
Draw at HT / Osasuna at FT	13.7%	12.0%	11.5%	1.04×	8.35
Osasuna at HT / Draw at FT	5.9%	6.6%	6.1%	1.07×	15.25
Sevilla at HT / Draw at FT	3.7%	3.4%	5.2%	0.65×	29.36
Osasuna at HT / Sevilla at FT	2.8%	3.4%	2.7%	1.24×	29.40
Sevilla at HT / Osasuna at FT	1.4%	3.4%	4.0%	0.85×	29.45

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla to score last	45.6%	49.0%	55.7%	0.88×	2.04
Osasuna to score last	45.0%	48.9%	39.3%	1.24×	2.04
No goal scored	9.4%	6.3%	5.1%	1.23×	15.86

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	90.6%	93.7%	94.9%	0.99×	1.07
Sevilla to lead by 1 at any time	51.5%	50.9%	63.2%	0.81×	1.96
Osasuna to lead by 1 at any time	50.9%	50.9%	47.1%	1.08×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	40.0%	37.4%	41.6%	0.90×	2.68
Sevilla to lead by 2 at any time	20.3%	19.7%	26.5%	0.75×	5.07
Osasuna to lead by 2 at any time	19.8%	17.7%	15.5%	1.14×	5.65
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	12.4%	11.3%	16.7%	0.68×	8.83
Sevilla to lead by 3 at any time	6.3%	7.0%	12.2%	0.57×	14.23
Osasuna to lead by 3 at any time	6.1%	7.0%	4.6%	1.52×	14.24

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla most corners	64.0%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Osasuna most corners	25.2%	31.0%	—	—	3.22
Corners level	10.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.2%	87.9%	89.2%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.5%	81.5%	81.2%	1.00×	1.23
1-3 goals	69.2%	68.4%	69.5%	0.98×	1.46
2-6 goals	67.3%	68.3%	73.1%	0.93×	1.46
2-5 goals	65.0%	68.3%	69.5%	0.98×	1.46
2-4 goals	59.2%	58.8%	61.5%	0.96×	1.70
1-2 goals	48.5%	48.0%	45.3%	1.06×	2.08
2-3 goals	47.0%	48.0%	49.8%	0.96×	2.08
3-6 goals	41.0%	43.6%	47.6%	0.92×	2.29
3-5 goals	38.8%	38.9%	44.0%	0.88×	2.57
3-4 goals	33.0%	34.1%	36.0%	0.95×	2.93
4-6 goals	20.3%	24.7%	23.4%	1.05×	4.05
4-5 goals	18.0%	18.1%	19.8%	0.91×	5.52
5-6 goals	8.1%	8.8%	11.7%	0.75×	11.33
7+ goals	1.1%	2.0%	2.2%	0.89×	49.87

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla never behind	39.7%	45.6%	52.9%	0.86×	2.20
Osasuna never behind	39.1%	45.5%	36.8%	1.24×	2.20

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.6%	50.1%	53.7%	0.93×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.4%	49.9%	46.3%	1.08×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.4%	55.4%	53.6%	1.03×	1.81
Odd goals in 1st half	41.6%	44.6%	46.4%	0.96×	2.24

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.6%	51.7%	49.7%	1.04×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.4%	48.3%	50.3%	0.96×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.6%	95.6%	94.1%	1.02×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	90.9%	92.9%	86.2%	1.08×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	90.6%	92.9%	94.9%	0.98×	1.08
Under 3.5 goals	78.6%	78.3%	74.5%	1.05×	1.28
Over 1.5 goals	68.4%	65.5%	75.2%	0.87×	1.53
Under 2.5 goals	57.9%	57.7%	50.3%	1.15×	1.73
Over 2.5 goals	42.1%	42.3%	49.7%	0.85×	2.37
Under 1.5 goals	31.6%	34.5%	24.8%	1.39×	2.90
Over 3.5 goals	21.4%	21.7%	25.5%	0.85×	4.60
Under 0.5 goals	9.4%	7.1%	5.1%	1.39×	14.13
Over 4.5 goals	9.2%	7.1%	13.8%	0.51×	14.14
Over 5.5 goals	3.4%	4.4%	5.9%	0.75×	22.92

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.9%	97.2%	97.7%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.4%	97.2%	93.6%	1.04×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	89.6%	88.2%	84.3%	1.05×	1.13
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	73.0%	72.1%	66.3%	1.09×	1.39
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	57.1%	55.3%	66.7%	0.83×	1.81
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	42.9%	44.7%	33.3%	1.34×	2.24
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	27.0%	27.9%	33.7%	0.83×	3.59
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	10.4%	11.8%	15.7%	0.76×	8.45
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.6%	2.8%	6.4%	0.44×	35.90
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.1%	2.8%	2.3%	1.18×	36.29

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	93.9%	92.3%	89.9%	1.03×	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	77.6%	78.1%	70.8%	1.10×	1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half	58.9%	60.2%	67.9%	0.89×	1.66
Under 0.5 in 1st half	41.1%	39.8%	32.1%	1.24×	2.51
Over 1.5 in 1st half	22.4%	21.9%	29.2%	0.75×	4.56
Over 2.5 in 1st half	6.1%	7.7%	10.1%	0.76×	12.96

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	81.5%	82.0%	79.7%	1.03×	1.22
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.1%	80.3%	81.8%	0.98×	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	56.6%	54.2%	53.7%	1.01×	1.85
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	43.4%	45.8%	46.3%	0.99×	2.18
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	22.9%	19.7%	18.2%	1.08×	5.06
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	18.5%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.57

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla not to score in both halves	82.3%	81.5%	73.7%	1.11×	1.23
Osasuna not to score in both halves	80.7%	81.4%	81.4%	1.00×	1.23
Osasuna to score in both halves	19.3%	18.6%	18.6%	1.00×	5.39
Sevilla to score in both halves	17.7%	18.5%	26.3%	0.70×	5.41

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	48.1%	49.5%	55.3%	0.90×	2.02
Only Sevilla scores	21.5%	22.8%	25.3%	0.90×	4.39
Only Osasuna scores	21.0%	22.8%	14.6%	1.56×	4.39
Neither team scores	9.4%	6.7%	5.1%	1.31×	14.96

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.3%	24.7%	25.7%	0.96×	4.05
Exactly 1 goals	22.2%	21.5%	19.8%	1.09×	4.64
Exactly 3 goals	20.7%	21.5%	24.3%	0.89×	4.64
Exactly 4 goals	12.2%	12.4%	11.8%	1.04×	8.09
Exactly 0 goals	9.4%	7.6%	5.1%	1.49×	13.11
Exactly 5 goals	5.8%	7.6%	8.1%	0.94×	13.16
6 or more goals	3.4%	4.4%	5.9%	0.74×	22.96

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	43.4%	46.4%	46.3%	1.00×	2.15
1 goal in 2nd half	33.7%	33.2%	35.6%	0.93×	3.01
No goals in 2nd half	22.9%	18.5%	18.2%	1.02×	5.40

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla not to win both halves	92.5%	93.4%	88.1%	1.06×	1.07
Osasuna not to win both halves	91.9%	93.4%	94.6%	0.99×	1.07
Osasuna to win both halves	8.1%	6.6%	5.4%	1.24×	15.05
Sevilla to win both halves	7.5%	6.6%	11.9%	0.56×	15.08

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna to win neither half	51.1%	53.9%	56.2%	0.96×	1.86
Sevilla to win neither half	50.9%	53.9%	37.0%	1.46×	1.86
Sevilla to win either half	49.1%	46.1%	63.0%	0.73×	2.17
Osasuna to win either half	48.9%	46.1%	43.8%	1.05×	2.17

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna not to win to nil	79.0%	77.2%	85.4%	0.90×	1.30
Sevilla not to win to nil	78.5%	77.2%	74.7%	1.03×	1.30
Sevilla to win to nil	21.5%	22.8%	25.3%	0.90×	4.39
Osasuna to win to nil	21.0%	22.8%	14.6%	1.56×	4.39

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.9%	28.0%	25.2%	1.11×	3.57
Sevilla by 1	21.0%	23.7%	26.2%	0.91×	4.22
Osasuna by 1	20.8%	23.7%	17.7%	1.34×	4.22
Sevilla by 2	10.3%	11.8%	11.0%	1.08×	8.45
Osasuna by 2	10.1%	11.8%	6.8%	1.73×	8.46
Sevilla by 3+	5.0%	7.1%	10.0%	0.71×	14.16
Osasuna by 3+	4.8%	2.9%	3.9%	0.74×	35.08