Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 15 August 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 6
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 5
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.32
Set-piece xG
1.49 – 0.59
Goals − xG
-0.02 – -0.93
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sevilla win
40.9%
Draw
28.8%
Rayo Vallecano win
30.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sevilla have scored 14 from 12.7 expected and conceded 17 from 16.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWLDWWLDL last 10
scored 14
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 16.3 xG
Rayo Vallecano are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLDLWLWDDL last 10
scored 14
from 14.3 xG
conceded 21
from 18.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.21–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.26–1.25 | 1-1 13% | 46% | 51% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sevilla 2.02 xGRayo Vallecano 1.93 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sevilla attacking right
Rayo Vallecano attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.80 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 6' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Randy Nteka | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Álvaro García |
| 14' |
 Sevilla |
Nico Guillén | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kike Salas |
| 35' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Sevilla |
Oso | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Miguel Sierra |
| 49' |
Sevilla |
Jon Guridi | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Miguel Sierra |
| 50' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Sevilla |
Jon Guridi | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 62' |
Sevilla |
Robbie Ure | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Sevilla |
Peque | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Robbie Ure |
| 66' |
Sevilla |
Miguel Sierra | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Peque |
| 68' |
Sevilla |
Oso | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Juan Iglesias |
| 71' |
Sevilla |
Ruben Vargas | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Juan Iglesias |
| 83' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Pedro Díaz |
| 85' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Alemão | 0.46 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 85' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Andrei Ratiu | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Díaz |
| 85' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 96' |
Sevilla |
Peque | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kike Salas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Arouna Sangante DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Gabriel Suazo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Juan Iglesias DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| Lucien Agoume DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Odisseas Vlachodimos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jon Guridi AMC | 87 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Oso AML | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Miguel Sierra AMR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| Isaac Romero FW | 51 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Nico Guillén DMC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Peque Sub | 39 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.83 | 0.03 | 0.19 |
| Robbie Ure Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| Ruben Vargas Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Chidera Ejuke Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manu Bueno Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrei Ratiu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.46 | 0.00 |
| Pathé Ciss DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iván Balliu DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Augusto Batalla GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jorge De Frutos AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Unai López DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Óscar Valentín DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Álvaro García AML | 75 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.80 | 0.54 | 1.34 |
| Randy Nteka FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Isi Palazón AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Sergio Camello Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alemão Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fran Pérez Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Díaz Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.00 |
| Pelayo Fernández Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |