Sevilla v Real Betis — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 30 November 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 9
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
4 – 8
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.38
Goals − xG
-0.74 – +0.81
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sevilla win
31.2%
Draw
24.3%
Real Betis win
44.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sevilla are finishing above their chances — 3.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWLDWWLDLW last 10
scored 16
from 12.8 xG
conceded 16
from 15.4 xG
Real Betis are finishing below their chances — 2.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLWWWDWLD last 10
scored 16
from 18.2 xG
conceded 14
from 17.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.25–1.55 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.14–1.35 | 1-1 13% | 46% | 51% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sevilla 0.74 xGReal Betis 1.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sevilla attacking right
Real Betis attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Real Betis |
Nelson Deossa | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 20' |
Real Betis |
Pablo García | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
 Sevilla |
José Ángel Carmona | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Sevilla |
Djibril Sow | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Peque |
| 36' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 36' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Sevilla |
Alfon | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Djibril Sow |
| 53' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 53' |
Sevilla |
Peque | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Batista Mendy |
| 56' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Valentín Gómez |
| 56' |
Real Betis |
Pablo García | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 57' |
Sevilla |
Chidera Ejuke | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Peque |
| 65' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Valentín Gómez |
| 67' |
Real Betis |
Sergi Altimira | 0.33 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 78' |
Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Sevilla |
Alexis Sánchez | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Peque |
| 92' |
Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Peque |
| 93' |
Sevilla |
Miguel Sierra | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Peque |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pablo Fornals AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.51 | 0.12 | 0.67 |
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Marc Bartra DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Marc Roca DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Natan DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Álvaro Vallés GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Valentín Gómez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| Aitor Ruibal DR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Pablo García AMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nelson Deossa DMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Sergi Altimira Sub | 27 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ángel Ortiz Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Riquelme Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ricardo Rodríguez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ezequiel Ávila Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akor Adams FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Peque AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.09 | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| José Ángel Carmona DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Juanlu Sanchez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| César Azpilicueta DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Odisseas Vlachodimos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Chidera Ejuke AMR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Djibril Sow DMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Alfon AML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Batista Mendy DMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| Marcão DC | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kike Salas Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexis Sánchez Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Isaac Romero Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Lucien Agoume Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Miguel Sierra Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |