Sevilla v Real Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 17 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 12
On target
6 – 1
Shots in box
7 – 9
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.15
Goals − xG
-0.68 – -0.48
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sevilla win
21.6%
Draw
22.9%
Real Madrid win
55.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sevilla are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWWWLLWWLD last 10
scored 14
from 10.1 xG
conceded 13
from 13.4 xG
Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWWWWWWL last 10
scored 20
from 21.0 xG
conceded 8
from 10.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.05–1.83 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.03–1.64 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 52% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sevilla 0.68 xGReal Madrid 1.48 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sevilla attacking right
Real Madrid attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Sevilla |
Oso | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Akor Adams |
| 3' |
Sevilla |
Neal Maupay | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Oso |
| 4' |
Sevilla |
Oso | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ruben Vargas |
| 8' |
 Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thiago Pitarch |
| 14' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 18' |
Sevilla |
Neal Maupay | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nemanja Gudelj |
| 22' |
Real Madrid |
Antonio Rüdiger | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Brahim Diaz |
| 22' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Brahim Diaz |
| 31' |
Sevilla |
Ruben Vargas | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | José Ángel Carmona |
| 33' |
Sevilla |
Neal Maupay | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ruben Vargas |
| 38' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thiago Pitarch |
| 42' |
Sevilla |
Neal Maupay | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ruben Vargas |
| 43' |
Real Madrid |
Thiago Pitarch | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aurelien Tchouameni |
| 50' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 63' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alexis Sánchez |
| 67' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.57 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 68' |
Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | José Ángel Carmona |
| 71' |
Real Madrid |
Franco Mastantuono | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Vinícius Júnior |
| 71' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Juanlu Sanchez |
| 82' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Akor Adams |
| 86' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Carvajal |
| 86' |
Sevilla |
Andrés Castrín | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Chidera Ejuke |
| 92' |
Sevilla |
Chidera Ejuke | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Djibril Sow |
| 92' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Sánchez |
Players
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kike Salas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Akor Adams FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.36 |
| Andrés Castrín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Odisseas Vlachodimos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Gabriel Suazo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Djibril Sow MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.43 |
| Oso ML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| José Ángel Carmona DR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.24 |
| Ruben Vargas MR | 55 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| Nemanja Gudelj MC | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Neal Maupay FW | 54 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Alexis Sánchez Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| Chidera Ejuke Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.17 |
| Lucien Agoume Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juanlu Sanchez Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| Isaac Romero Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.09 | 1.16 |
| Antonio Rüdiger DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Daniel Carvajal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| Fran García DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Thibaut Courtois GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jude Bellingham MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Vinícius Júnior FWL | 78 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.67 | 0.85 |
| Brahim Diaz FWR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Aurelien Tchouameni MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Thiago Pitarch MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| Franco Mastantuono Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Eduardo Camavinga Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gonzalo García Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álvaro Leiva Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |