Sevilla v Real Sociedad — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 4 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 6
On target
5 – 0
Shots in box
10 – 2
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.34 – -0.17
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sevilla win
35.1%
Draw
26.2%
Real Sociedad win
38.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sevilla have scored 14 from 12.7 expected and conceded 17 from 16.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWLDWWLDL last 10
scored 14
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 16.3 xG
Real Sociedad are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LLWDWLWWWW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 18
from 17.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.28–1.35 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.22–1.35 | 1-1 13% | 47% | 52% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sevilla 1.34 xGReal Sociedad 0.17 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sevilla attacking right
Real Sociedad attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 Sevilla |
Gabriel Suazo | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ruben Vargas |
| 15' |
Sevilla |
Chidera Ejuke | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ruben Vargas |
| 15' |
Sevilla |
Lucien Agoume | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
Sevilla |
Andrés Castrín | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ruben Vargas |
| 18' |
Sevilla |
Lucien Agoume | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Sevilla |
Neal Maupay | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucien Agoume |
| 21' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 22' |
Sevilla |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Neal Maupay |
| 29' |
Sevilla |
Ruben Vargas | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Chidera Ejuke |
| 30' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Neal Maupay |
| 35' |
Sevilla |
Neal Maupay | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucien Agoume |
| 39' |
 Real Sociedad |
Jon Gorrotxategi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 42' |
Sevilla |
José Ángel Carmona | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Sevilla |
Lucien Agoume | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Sevilla |
Neal Maupay | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Sevilla |
Chidera Ejuke | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 45' |
Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Orri Óskarsson |
| 49' |
Sevilla |
Alexis Sánchez | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Neal Maupay |
| 51' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 68' |
Sevilla |
Ruben Vargas | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alexis Sánchez |
| 76' |
Sevilla |
Chidera Ejuke | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Neal Maupay |
| 84' |
Sevilla |
Alexis Sánchez | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 87' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luka Sucic |
| 92' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luka Sucic |
| 92' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chidera Ejuke ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.01 | 0.54 |
| Neal Maupay FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.22 | 0.53 |
| Lucien Agoume MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.48 |
| Andrés Castrín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| José Ángel Carmona DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Gabriel Suazo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.46 | 0.68 |
| Odisseas Vlachodimos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Kike Salas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Nemanja Gudelj MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Ruben Vargas MR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 0.50 |
| Isaac Romero FW | 49 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Alexis Sánchez Sub | 41 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 0.37 |
| Juanlu Sanchez Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Batista Mendy Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Peque Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oso Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Soler AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Sergio Gómez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Duje Caleta-Car DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jon Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ander Barrenetxea AMR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Beñat Turrientes DMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Pablo Marín AML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jon Gorrotxategi DMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Orri Óskarsson Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Takefusa Kubo Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Yangel Herrera Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Wesley Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luka Sucic Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |