Shakhtar Donetsk v Fenerbahce — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 25 November 2026 · EUR-Champions League · 2627
Champions League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (176 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 0-2 10.0%
- 1-2 9.7%
- 0-1 8.5%
- 1-1 8.2%
- 0-3 7.8%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 64.6% | Under 2.5 | 35.4% |
| BTTS yes | 56.2% | BTTS no | 43.8% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ | 62.1% | Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ | 25.3% |
| Fenerbahce 1+ | 90.5% | Fenerbahce 2+ | 68.2% |
Expected goals 0.97 – 2.36. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Fenerbahce carry the stronger rating, 1761 Elo against 1488.
- Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 25/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Shakhtar Donetsk have only 9 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Fenerbahce have an estimated 69.7% win probability, against 19.2% for the draw and 11.1% for Shakhtar Donetsk. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.97 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 2.36 for Fenerbahce.
Why Shakhtar Donetsk
Nothing in the data singles out Shakhtar Donetsk.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 19.2%. Draws run at 15% in this competition.
Why Fenerbahce can win
Fenerbahce carry the stronger rating, 1761 Elo against 1488. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Shakhtar Donetsk, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Fenerbahce, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Shakhtar Donetsk: 43% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Fenerbahce: 59% possession, 20.8 shots a match, 9.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Fenerbahce are the model's most likely outcome at 69.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-2 at 10.0%. Confidence 42/100, data quality 25/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 0.97–2.36 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.