Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 3 November 2026 · EUR-Champions League · 2627

Champions League results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Shakhtar Donetsk

17:45 UTC

Sporting CP

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 27 Oct, 10:57 · 175h before kick-off

Shakhtar Donetsk win

22.2%

model 20.7%

Draw

22.2%

model 22.1%

Sporting CP win

55.7%

model 57.2%

222256

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

0-1 12.4%
1-1 10.5%
0-2 10.4%
1-2 9.8%
1-0 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	50.8%	Under 2.5	49.2%
BTTS yes	50.0%	BTTS no	50.0%
Shakhtar Donetsk 1+	61.1%	Shakhtar Donetsk 2+	24.4%
Sporting CP 1+	82.8%	Sporting CP 2+	52.5%

Expected goals 0.95 – 1.76. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

66/100

Data quality

45/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Draw (away no bet)

Away no bet · usually 23%

52.2% fair odds 1.92

strong signal · 350 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Shakhtar Donetsk not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 829 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Sporting CP carry the stronger rating, 1826 Elo against 1488.
Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Shakhtar Donetsk have only 9 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Sporting CP have an estimated 55.7% win probability, against 22.2% for the draw and 22.2% for Shakhtar Donetsk. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.94 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.76 for Sporting CP.

Why Shakhtar Donetsk

Nothing in the data singles out Shakhtar Donetsk.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 15% in this competition.

Why Sporting CP can win

Sporting CP carry the stronger rating, 1826 Elo against 1488. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Shakhtar Donetsk, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Sporting CP, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Shakhtar Donetsk: 43% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Sporting CP: 54% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 9.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Sporting CP are the model's most likely outcome at 55.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 12.4%. Confidence 66/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	212257	0.95–1.76	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	222355	0.96–1.68	0-1 13%	49%	50%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to win	55.0%	51.6%	33.7%	1.53×	1.94
Draw	22.8%	24.5%	15.6%	1.57×	4.09
Shakhtar Donetsk to win	22.2%	24.5%	51.0%	0.48×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP & not both score	31.8%	29.6%	15.6%	1.90×	3.38
Sporting CP & both teams score	23.2%	21.8%	18.4%	1.19×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	16.4%	18.0%	10.7%	1.68×	5.57
Shakhtar Donetsk & not both score	12.2%	13.3%	24.5%	0.54×	7.54
Shakhtar Donetsk & both teams score	10.0%	13.3%	26.8%	0.49×	7.54
Draw & not both score	6.4%	8.3%	5.1%	1.63×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP & over 1.5	42.3%	40.3%	28.1%	1.43×	2.48
Sporting CP & under 3.5	38.0%	34.9%	19.1%	1.82×	2.87
Sporting CP & over 2.5	32.3%	30.8%	23.7%	1.30×	3.25
Sporting CP & under 2.5	22.7%	21.6%	10.2%	2.12×	4.63
Shakhtar Donetsk & under 3.5	17.4%	18.0%	26.8%	0.67×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	17.2%	18.0%	10.5%	1.72×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	17.2%	18.0%	10.5%	1.72×	5.56
Sporting CP & over 3.5	17.0%	18.0%	14.8%	1.22×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.4%	18.0%	10.7%	1.68×	5.56
Shakhtar Donetsk & over 1.5	14.7%	12.8%	42.9%	0.30×	7.79
Sporting CP & under 1.5	12.6%	12.8%	5.9%	2.19×	7.79
Shakhtar Donetsk & over 2.5	11.4%	12.8%	36.7%	0.35×	7.79
Shakhtar Donetsk & under 2.5	10.8%	12.8%	14.5%	0.88×	7.79
Shakhtar Donetsk & under 1.5	7.5%	7.9%	8.4%	0.94×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.4%	7.9%	5.1%	1.55×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.6%	7.9%	5.4%	1.48×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.6%	7.9%	5.4%	1.48×	12.63
Shakhtar Donetsk & over 3.5	4.8%	4.8%	24.5%	0.20×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (1UP)	67.7%	70.3%	—	—	1.42
Shakhtar Donetsk (1UP)	38.9%	34.3%	—	—	2.92

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (2UP)	55.0%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Shakhtar Donetsk (2UP)	22.2%	23.8%	—	—	4.21

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to win 2nd half	46.2%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
2nd half drawn	34.0%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
Shakhtar Donetsk to win 2nd half	19.9%	18.0%	—	—	5.54

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP under 1.5 in 2nd half	73.2%	75.6%	—	—	1.32
Sporting CP over 0.5 in 2nd half	63.6%	60.4%	—	—	1.66
Sporting CP under 0.5 in 2nd half	36.4%	39.6%	—	—	2.52
Sporting CP over 1.5 in 2nd half	26.8%	24.4%	—	—	4.10

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk under 1.5 in 2nd half	89.5%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Shakhtar Donetsk under 0.5 in 2nd half	57.8%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Shakhtar Donetsk over 0.5 in 2nd half	42.2%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Shakhtar Donetsk over 1.5 in 2nd half	10.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.10

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (+2.5)	98.0%	96.3%	81.6%	1.18×	1.04
Sporting CP (+1.5)	92.5%	92.1%	68.4%	1.35×	1.09
Sporting CP (+0.5)	77.8%	78.5%	49.0%	1.60×	1.27
Sporting CP (-0.5)	55.0%	52.4%	33.7%	1.56×	1.91
Shakhtar Donetsk (+0.5)	45.0%	47.6%	66.3%	0.72×	2.10
Shakhtar Donetsk (-0.5)	22.2%	21.5%	51.0%	0.42×	4.65
Shakhtar Donetsk (-1.5)	7.5%	7.9%	31.6%	0.25×	12.70
Shakhtar Donetsk (-2.5)	2.0%	3.7%	18.4%	0.20×	27.21

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to concede	61.8%	67.5%	79.6%	0.85×	1.48
Sporting CP clean sheet	38.2%	32.5%	20.4%	1.59×	3.08

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP clean sheet in 1st half	66.1%	71.1%	—	—	1.41
Sporting CP to concede in 1st half	33.9%	28.9%	—	—	3.46

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP clean sheet in 2nd half	57.8%	57.3%	—	—	1.75
Sporting CP to concede in 2nd half	42.2%	42.7%	—	—	2.34

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP under 3.5 goals	90.9%	92.3%	92.3%	1.00×	1.08
Sporting CP over 0.5 goals	81.4%	81.5%	70.7%	1.15×	1.23
Sporting CP under 2.5 goals	76.2%	76.2%	79.1%	0.96×	1.31
Sporting CP over 1.5 goals	50.1%	53.5%	40.1%	1.34×	1.87
Sporting CP under 1.5 goals	49.9%	46.5%	59.9%	0.78×	2.15
Sporting CP over 2.5 goals	23.8%	23.8%	20.9%	1.14×	4.21
Sporting CP under 0.5 goals	18.6%	18.5%	29.3%	0.63×	5.41
Sporting CP over 3.5 goals	9.1%	7.7%	7.7%	1.00×	13.06

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP under 1.5 in 1st half	85.3%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Sporting CP under 0.5 in 1st half	51.0%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Sporting CP over 0.5 in 1st half	49.0%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Sporting CP over 1.5 in 1st half	14.7%	10.9%	—	—	9.21

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP scores more in 2nd half	42.6%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Sporting CP scores equally in both	33.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Sporting CP scores more in 1st half	23.8%	21.8%	—	—	4.58

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	50.7%	51.6%	23.4%	2.21×	1.94
Shakhtar Donetsk (away no bet)	49.3%	48.4%	76.6%	0.63×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP even goals	51.7%	52.6%	53.6%	0.98×	1.90
Sporting CP odd goals	48.3%	47.4%	46.4%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.3%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.7%	12.2%	—	—	8.21

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	61.8%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals	38.2%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	55.5%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Sporting CP to score 2+ in a row	42.9%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.8%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Shakhtar Donetsk to score 2+ in a row	17.7%	16.2%	—	—	6.19
Sporting CP to score 3+ in a row	17.1%	16.1%	—	—	6.20
Shakhtar Donetsk to score 3+ in a row	3.9%	2.6%	—	—	38.62

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1	12.6%	11.5%	5.9%	1.96×	8.71
1-1	10.8%	11.5%	5.6%	2.04×	8.72
0-2	10.0%	11.5%	4.6%	2.50×	8.72
1-2	9.7%	7.4%	5.6%	1.32×	13.51
1-0	7.5%	7.4%	8.4%	0.88×	13.51
0-0	6.4%	7.4%	5.1%	1.45×	13.51
0-3	5.6%	7.4%	3.8%	1.93×	13.51
1-3	5.4%	7.4%	2.8%	2.64×	13.51
2-1	5.5%	7.4%	7.7%	0.97×	13.51
0-4	2.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.12×	58.31
1-4	2.3%	1.7%	1.5%	1.12×	58.31
2-0	3.3%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.30
2-2	4.7%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.29
2-3	2.6%	1.7%	5.4%	0.32×	58.30
2-4	1.1%	1.7%	1.0%	1.68×	58.31
3-0	1.1%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	58.31
3-1	1.8%	1.7%	6.1%	0.28×	58.31
3-2	1.5%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.31
3-3	0.8%	1.7%	1.5%	1.12×	58.31
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.5%	3.36×	58.32
4-0	0.3%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.32
4-1	0.4%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.32
4-2	0.4%	1.7%	1.3%	1.34×	58.32
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.24×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.36×	58.32
Any other score	3.1%	1.7%	11.5%	0.15×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (2nd half DNB)	69.9%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Shakhtar Donetsk (2nd half DNB)	30.1%	32.7%	—	—	3.06

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP leading at HT (DNB)	65.0%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Shakhtar Donetsk leading at HT (DNB)	35.0%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP or draw (X2)	77.8%	75.5%	49.0%	1.54×	1.32
Shakhtar Donetsk or Sporting CP (12)	77.2%	75.5%	84.4%	0.89×	1.32
Shakhtar Donetsk or draw (1X)	45.0%	48.4%	66.3%	0.73×	2.07

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP or draw at HT	80.2%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
Shakhtar Donetsk or draw at HT	63.3%	60.9%	—	—	1.64
Shakhtar Donetsk or Sporting CP at HT	56.4%	57.4%	—	—	1.74

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP or draw (1UP)	77.8%	83.6%	—	—	1.20
Shakhtar Donetsk or draw (1UP)	45.0%	52.8%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP or draw in 2nd half	80.1%	82.0%	—	—	1.22
Shakhtar Donetsk or Sporting CP in 2nd half	66.0%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Shakhtar Donetsk or draw in 2nd half	53.8%	54.9%	—	—	1.82

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.5%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	36.5%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (DNB)	71.2%	71.4%	39.8%	1.80×	1.40
Shakhtar Donetsk (DNB)	28.8%	28.6%	60.2%	0.48×	3.49

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to score first	59.5%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Shakhtar Donetsk to score first	34.1%	27.9%	—	—	3.59
No goal scored	6.4%	7.5%	—	—	13.27

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	50.4%	51.3%	44.6%	1.15×	1.95
Both teams to score	49.6%	48.7%	55.4%	0.88×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	39.9%	38.5%	29.3%	1.31×	2.60
Both score & over 2.5	38.8%	38.5%	50.0%	0.77×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	10.8%	12.4%	5.6%	2.20×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	10.5%	12.4%	15.6%	0.79×	8.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.4%	85.6%	80.9%	1.06×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	12.6%	14.4%	19.1%	0.75×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	73.4%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	26.6%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	61.4%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Both score 2nd half only	22.2%	21.2%	—	—	4.71
Both score 1st half only	12.0%	10.7%	—	—	9.32
Both score in both halves	4.5%	4.9%	—	—	20.24

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.5%	83.5%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	16.5%	16.5%	—	—	6.06

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	52.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
A half without a goal	48.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.1%	47.2%	37.2%	1.27×	2.12
0-1 goals	26.6%	26.6%	18.9%	1.41×	3.76
4-6 goals	25.5%	26.6%	37.5%	0.71×	3.76
7+ goals	1.9%	1.8%	6.9%	0.27×	54.38

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to score exactly 1	31.3%	33.8%	30.9%	1.10×	2.96
Sporting CP to score exactly 2	26.3%	27.4%	19.4%	1.42×	3.64
Sporting CP to score 3+	23.8%	22.3%	20.9%	1.07×	4.49
Sporting CP to score exactly 0	18.6%	19.5%	29.3%	0.67×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk to score exactly 0	38.2%	35.5%	20.4%	1.74×	2.81
Shakhtar Donetsk to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.5%	25.0%	1.42×	2.81
Shakhtar Donetsk to score exactly 2	17.7%	18.8%	23.7%	0.79×	5.32
Shakhtar Donetsk to score 3+	7.4%	10.3%	31.4%	0.33×	9.67

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.6%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Sporting CP leading at HT	36.7%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Shakhtar Donetsk leading at HT	19.8%	16.1%	—	—	6.22

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP -1: 1	45.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Sporting CP -1: 2	29.7%	26.6%	—	—	3.77
Sporting CP -1: X	25.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (0:1)	77.8%	73.8%	49.0%	1.51×	1.36
Draw (0:1)	14.8%	13.7%	19.6%	0.70×	7.28
Shakhtar Donetsk (0:1)	7.5%	9.2%	31.6%	0.29×	10.84

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (0:2)	92.5%	90.8%	68.4%	1.33×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	5.5%	7.6%	13.5%	0.57×	13.07
Shakhtar Donetsk (0:2)	2.0%	3.7%	18.4%	0.20×	26.79

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (0:3)	98.0%	96.6%	81.6%	1.18×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	1.6%	2.4%	8.9%	0.27×	42.07
Shakhtar Donetsk (0:3)	0.4%	2.4%	9.7%	0.24×	42.12

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (0:4)	99.6%	98.1%	90.3%	1.09×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	5.9%	0.21×	81.93
Shakhtar Donetsk (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	4.1%	0.30×	81.96

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk (1:0)	45.0%	49.0%	66.3%	0.74×	2.04
Sporting CP (1:0)	29.7%	25.1%	17.1%	1.47×	3.98
Draw (1:0)	25.3%	25.0%	16.8%	1.49×	4.00

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk (2:0)	70.3%	76.3%	82.9%	0.92×	1.31
Draw (2:0)	16.7%	15.8%	7.9%	2.00×	6.31
Sporting CP (2:0)	13.0%	10.3%	9.4%	1.09×	9.71

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.8%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
1st half highest scoring	27.0%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	24.3%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk to concede	81.4%	80.9%	70.7%	1.15×	1.24
Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet	18.6%	19.1%	29.3%	0.65×	5.24

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet in 1st half	51.0%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Shakhtar Donetsk to concede in 1st half	49.0%	44.3%	—	—	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk to concede in 2nd half	63.6%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet in 2nd half	36.4%	40.1%	—	—	2.49

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk under 3.5 goals	98.3%	96.4%	83.9%	1.15×	1.04
Shakhtar Donetsk under 2.5 goals	92.6%	92.2%	68.6%	1.34×	1.08
Shakhtar Donetsk under 1.5 goals	74.9%	74.2%	45.2%	1.64×	1.35
Shakhtar Donetsk over 0.5 goals	61.8%	63.6%	79.6%	0.80×	1.57
Shakhtar Donetsk under 0.5 goals	38.2%	36.4%	20.4%	1.78×	2.75
Shakhtar Donetsk over 1.5 goals	25.1%	25.8%	54.8%	0.47×	3.88
Shakhtar Donetsk over 2.5 goals	7.4%	7.8%	31.4%	0.25×	12.84
Shakhtar Donetsk over 3.5 goals	1.7%	3.6%	16.1%	0.23×	27.61

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk under 1.5 in 1st half	93.5%	94.8%	—	—	1.05
Shakhtar Donetsk under 0.5 in 1st half	66.1%	69.3%	—	—	1.44
Shakhtar Donetsk over 0.5 in 1st half	33.9%	30.7%	—	—	3.26
Shakhtar Donetsk over 1.5 in 1st half	6.5%	5.2%	—	—	19.35

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk scores equally in both	47.4%	47.3%	—	—	2.11
Shakhtar Donetsk scores more in 2nd half	30.9%	33.1%	—	—	3.02
Shakhtar Donetsk scores more in 1st half	21.7%	21.0%	—	—	4.77

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (home no bet)	70.7%	66.7%	68.4%	0.98×	1.50
Draw (home no bet)	29.3%	33.3%	31.6%	1.05×	3.01

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk even goals	57.3%	55.3%	53.3%	1.04×	1.81
Shakhtar Donetsk odd goals	42.7%	44.7%	46.7%	0.96×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	33.6%	33.5%	—	—	2.98
HT 0-1	22.8%	24.4%	—	—	4.10
HT 1-0	14.1%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 1-1	9.3%	6.9%	—	—	14.52
HT 0-2	7.6%	6.9%	—	—	14.54
Any other HT score	3.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.16
HT 1-2	3.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.21
HT 2-0	2.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.23
HT 2-1	1.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.29
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.38

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP at HT / Sporting CP at FT	31.3%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Draw at HT / Sporting CP at FT	20.5%	21.6%	—	—	4.64
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Shakhtar Donetsk at HT / Shakhtar Donetsk at FT	12.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Shakhtar Donetsk at FT	9.0%	6.1%	—	—	16.44
Shakhtar Donetsk at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Sporting CP at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.89
Shakhtar Donetsk at HT / Sporting CP at FT	3.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.92
Sporting CP at HT / Shakhtar Donetsk at FT	1.3%	3.4%	—	—	28.99

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to score last	59.4%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Shakhtar Donetsk to score last	34.2%	32.6%	—	—	3.07
No goal scored	6.4%	7.5%	—	—	13.27

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.6%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Sporting CP to lead by 1 at any time	67.7%	69.3%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	47.3%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Shakhtar Donetsk to lead by 1 at any time	38.9%	34.8%	—	—	2.87
Sporting CP to lead by 2 at any time	35.7%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.1%	14.8%	—	—	6.74
Sporting CP to lead by 3 at any time	15.2%	14.8%	—	—	6.76
Shakhtar Donetsk to lead by 2 at any time	11.7%	10.6%	—	—	9.45
Shakhtar Donetsk to lead by 3 at any time	2.9%	1.6%	—	—	62.48

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	88.4%	87.4%	81.4%	1.07×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.7%	83.4%	67.3%	1.24×	1.20
2-6 goals	71.6%	72.3%	74.5%	0.97×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.2%	68.8%	67.6%	1.02×	1.45
1-3 goals	66.2%	68.8%	51.0%	1.35×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.5%	63.3%	53.6%	1.18×	1.58
3-6 goals	47.4%	48.4%	58.7%	0.83×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.1%	48.4%	37.2%	1.30×	2.06
1-2 goals	44.3%	43.6%	29.8%	1.46×	2.29
3-5 goals	44.1%	43.6%	51.8%	0.84×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.4%	39.2%	37.8%	1.04×	2.55
4-6 goals	25.5%	30.2%	37.5%	0.81×	3.31
4-5 goals	22.2%	24.4%	30.6%	0.80×	4.09
5-6 goals	11.0%	14.8%	21.2%	0.70×	6.76
7+ goals	1.9%	2.6%	6.9%	0.37×	39.19

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP never behind	54.7%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Shakhtar Donetsk never behind	25.9%	29.7%	—	—	3.36

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	48.9%	50.9%	45.4%	1.12×	1.97
Odd number of goals	51.1%	49.1%	54.6%	0.90×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.4%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	44.6%	42.3%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.7%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.3%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.8%	92.3%	86.2%	1.07×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.6%	92.3%	94.9%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	87.1%	87.6%	72.2%	1.21×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	73.4%	72.5%	81.1%	0.89×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	72.6%	72.5%	55.9%	1.30×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	50.7%	52.5%	34.7%	1.51×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	49.3%	47.5%	65.3%	0.73×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	27.4%	27.5%	44.1%	0.62×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	26.6%	27.5%	18.9%	1.46×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	12.9%	12.4%	27.8%	0.45×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	6.4%	7.7%	5.1%	1.51×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	5.2%	7.7%	13.8%	0.56×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.1%	97.2%	92.6%	1.05×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.3%	92.4%	84.0%	1.10×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	84.9%	81.1%	66.8%	1.21×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	65.0%	61.9%	77.6%	0.80×	1.61
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	64.9%	61.9%	44.0%	1.41×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	35.1%	38.1%	56.0%	0.68×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	35.0%	38.1%	22.4%	1.70×	2.63
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	15.1%	18.9%	33.2%	0.57×	5.30
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.7%	7.6%	16.0%	0.47×	13.20
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.9%	2.8%	7.4%	0.38×	35.64

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.3%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	70.5%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	66.4%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	33.6%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	29.5%	28.7%	—	—	3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.7%	7.3%	—	—	13.61

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.4%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.2%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.8%	20.4%	—	—	4.91
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.6%	20.4%	—	—	4.91

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk not to score in both halves	85.7%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
Sporting CP not to score in both halves	68.9%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Sporting CP to score in both halves	31.1%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
Shakhtar Donetsk to score in both halves	14.3%	14.5%	—	—	6.89

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.6%	50.7%	55.4%	0.92×	1.97
Only Sporting CP scores	31.8%	33.3%	15.6%	2.14×	3.01
Only Shakhtar Donetsk scores	12.2%	11.0%	24.5%	0.45×	9.07
Neither team scores	6.4%	7.1%	5.1%	1.40×	14.01

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.1%	22.6%	16.1%	1.41×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	21.9%	22.6%	21.4%	1.05×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	20.1%	22.6%	14.0%	1.61×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	14.5%	12.1%	16.6%	0.73×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	7.7%	7.6%	14.3%	0.53×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	6.4%	7.6%	5.1%	1.49×	13.14
6 or more goals	5.2%	7.6%	13.8%	0.55×	13.15

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.9%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	33.6%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	19.8%	15.7%	—	—	6.35
3+ goals in 1st half	9.7%	7.3%	—	—	13.61

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	45.9%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	33.3%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	20.8%	22.8%	—	—	4.39

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk not to win both halves	96.1%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Sporting CP not to win both halves	83.2%	83.5%	—	—	1.20
Sporting CP to win both halves	16.8%	16.5%	—	—	6.06
Shakhtar Donetsk to win both halves	3.9%	2.8%	—	—	35.65

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to win either half	66.1%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Shakhtar Donetsk to win neither half	64.2%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Shakhtar Donetsk to win either half	35.8%	35.0%	—	—	2.86
Sporting CP to win neither half	33.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.11

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk not to win to nil	87.8%	88.1%	75.5%	1.17×	1.14
Sporting CP not to win to nil	68.2%	69.7%	84.4%	0.83×	1.44
Sporting CP to win to nil	31.8%	30.3%	15.6%	1.95×	3.30
Shakhtar Donetsk to win to nil	12.2%	11.9%	24.5%	0.49×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP by 1	25.3%	27.9%	16.8%	1.66×	3.59
Draw	22.8%	24.1%	15.6%	1.55×	4.15
Sporting CP by 2	16.7%	17.0%	7.9%	2.16×	5.87
Shakhtar Donetsk by 1	14.8%	11.8%	19.6%	0.60×	8.50
Sporting CP by 3+	13.0%	11.8%	9.4%	1.25×	8.50
Shakhtar Donetsk by 2	5.5%	7.2%	13.5%	0.53×	13.92
Shakhtar Donetsk by 3+	2.0%	2.7%	18.4%	0.15×	36.91