Shakhter Karagandy v Akademiya Ontustik — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 8 October 2026 · KAZ-First League · 2627
KAZ-First League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-0 12.9%
- 1-0 12.0%
- 3-0 10.1%
- 2-1 9.2%
- 3-1 7.2%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 59.0% | Under 2.5 | 41.0% |
| BTTS yes | 45.2% | BTTS no | 54.8% |
| Shakhter Karagandy 1+ | 90.4% | Shakhter Karagandy 2+ | 67.9% |
| Akademiya Ontustik 1+ | 51.2% | Akademiya Ontustik 2+ | 16.2% |
Expected goals 2.34 – 0.72. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Shakhter Karagandy have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Akademiya Ontustik have allowed 1.35.
- At home Shakhter Karagandy average 1.35 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 20/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Shakhter Karagandy have only 0 matches on record.
- Akademiya Ontustik have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Shakhter Karagandy have an estimated 74.8% win probability, against 14.5% for the draw and 10.7% for Akademiya Ontustik. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.34 for Shakhter Karagandy and 0.72 for Akademiya Ontustik.
Why Shakhter Karagandy
Shakhter Karagandy have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Akademiya Ontustik have allowed 1.35. At home Shakhter Karagandy average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 14.5%.
Why Akademiya Ontustik can win
Akademiya Ontustik have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Shakhter Karagandy have allowed 1.35. Away from home Akademiya Ontustik average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Shakhter Karagandy, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Akademiya Ontustik, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Shakhter Karagandy: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Akademiya Ontustik: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-10 15:23 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-10 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·
Shakhter Karagandy are the model's most likely outcome at 74.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 12.9%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 20/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 2.34–0.72 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 2.52–0.64 | 2-0 13% | 61% | 43% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.