Shakhter Karagandy v Taraz — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 17 September 2026 · KAZ-First League · 2627

KAZ-First League results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

Shakhter Karagandy

11:00 UTC

Taraz

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 10 Sep, 11:32 · 167h before kick-off

Shakhter Karagandy win

79.8%

model 80.5%

Draw

12.5%

model 12.4%

Taraz win

7.7%

model 7.1%

80128

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (297 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 15.1%
1-0 13.2%
3-0 12.4%
2-1 8.1%
4-0 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	57.5%	Under 2.5	42.5%
BTTS yes	37.2%	BTTS no	62.8%
Shakhter Karagandy 1+	91.4%	Shakhter Karagandy 2+	70.3%
Taraz 1+	41.7%	Taraz 2+	10.2%

Expected goals 2.46 – 0.54. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

22/100

Data quality

20/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Only Shakhter Karagandy scores

Teams to score · usually 27%

54.3% fair odds 1.84

strong signal · 7679 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Taraz (0:4)

Handicap 0:4 · usually 89%

84.2% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 590 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Shakhter Karagandy have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Taraz have allowed 1.35.
At home Shakhter Karagandy average 1.35 xG a match.

Risk factors

Data quality is 20/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Shakhter Karagandy have only 0 matches on record.
Taraz have only 0 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Shakhter Karagandy have an estimated 79.8% win probability, against 12.5% for the draw and 7.7% for Taraz. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.46 for Shakhter Karagandy and 0.54 for Taraz.

Why Shakhter Karagandy

Shakhter Karagandy have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Taraz have allowed 1.35. At home Shakhter Karagandy average 1.35 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 12.5%.

Why Taraz can win

Taraz have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Shakhter Karagandy have allowed 1.35. Away from home Taraz average 1.35 xG a match.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Shakhter Karagandy, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Taraz, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Shakhter Karagandy: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Taraz: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-10 15:23 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-10 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Shakhter Karagandy are the model's most likely outcome at 79.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 15.1%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 20/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	80127	2.46–0.54	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	82126	2.41–0.45	2-0 17%	54%	32%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy to win	81.8%	80.4%	47.7%	1.69×	1.24
Draw	12.2%	13.6%	15.2%	0.90×	7.35
Taraz to win	6.0%	8.6%	37.6%	0.23×	11.68

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy & not both score	59.0%	51.0%	27.0%	1.89×	1.96
Shakhter Karagandy & both teams score	22.8%	21.8%	21.1%	1.03×	4.60
Draw & both teams score	7.3%	8.4%	12.7%	0.66×	11.94
Draw & not both score	4.9%	4.9%	3.0%	1.67×	20.25
Taraz & not both score	4.1%	4.9%	19.0%	0.26×	20.27
Taraz & both teams score	1.9%	4.9%	19.0%	0.26×	20.33

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy & over 1.5	67.1%	66.5%	38.8%	1.71×	1.50
Shakhter Karagandy & under 3.5	52.2%	48.8%	23.6%	2.06×	2.05
Shakhter Karagandy & over 2.5	50.5%	48.7%	35.0%	1.39×	2.05
Shakhter Karagandy & under 2.5	31.4%	31.0%	13.1%	2.37×	3.22
Shakhter Karagandy & over 3.5	29.6%	25.9%	24.5%	1.06×	3.86
Shakhter Karagandy & under 1.5	14.7%	12.9%	9.3%	1.39×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	10.3%	12.9%	10.5%	1.22×	7.78
Draw & under 2.5	10.3%	12.9%	10.5%	1.22×	7.78
Draw & over 1.5	7.3%	8.0%	12.7%	0.63×	12.56
Taraz & under 3.5	5.4%	8.0%	24.1%	0.33×	12.57
Draw & under 1.5	4.9%	4.9%	3.0%	1.65×	20.52
Taraz & under 2.5	4.0%	4.9%	11.8%	0.41×	20.53
Taraz & under 1.5	3.4%	4.9%	6.8%	0.72×	20.53
Taraz & over 1.5	2.6%	4.9%	31.2%	0.16×	20.53
Draw & over 3.5	1.9%	4.9%	5.1%	0.96×	20.54
Taraz & over 2.5	2.0%	4.9%	26.2%	0.19×	20.54
Draw & over 2.5	1.9%	4.9%	5.1%	0.96×	20.54
Taraz & over 3.5	0.5%	4.9%	13.9%	0.35×	20.55

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy (1UP)	86.5%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Taraz (1UP)	16.4%	22.0%	—	—	4.54

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy (2UP)	81.8%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
Taraz (2UP)	6.0%	8.1%	—	—	12.29

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy to win 2nd half	66.0%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
2nd half drawn	26.6%	26.4%	—	—	3.79
Taraz to win 2nd half	7.4%	7.4%	—	—	13.47

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Taraz under 1.5 in 2nd half	97.0%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Taraz under 0.5 in 2nd half	76.5%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Taraz over 0.5 in 2nd half	23.5%	20.5%	—	—	4.87
Taraz over 1.5 in 2nd half	3.0%	5.9%	—	—	16.85

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy over 0.5 in 2nd half	74.7%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Shakhter Karagandy under 1.5 in 2nd half	60.1%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Shakhter Karagandy over 1.5 in 2nd half	39.9%	37.5%	—	—	2.66
Shakhter Karagandy under 0.5 in 2nd half	25.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy (+0.5)	94.0%	92.1%	62.4%	1.48×	1.09
Shakhter Karagandy (-0.5)	81.8%	82.6%	47.7%	1.73×	1.21
Taraz (+2.5)	65.3%	68.7%	79.7%	0.86×	1.46
Shakhter Karagandy (-1.5)	58.2%	56.9%	31.6%	1.80×	1.76
Taraz (+1.5)	41.8%	43.1%	68.4%	0.63×	2.32
Shakhter Karagandy (-2.5)	34.7%	31.3%	20.3%	1.55×	3.20
Taraz (+0.5)	18.2%	17.4%	52.3%	0.33×	5.74
Taraz (-0.5)	6.0%	7.9%	37.6%	0.21×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Taraz to concede	91.0%	91.0%	78.5%	1.16×	1.10
Taraz clean sheet	9.0%	9.0%	21.5%	0.42×	11.12

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Taraz to concede in 1st half	64.5%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Taraz clean sheet in 1st half	35.5%	35.0%	—	—	2.86

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Taraz to concede in 2nd half	74.7%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Taraz clean sheet in 2nd half	25.3%	29.4%	—	—	3.40

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Taraz under 3.5 goals	99.9%	97.4%	90.3%	1.08×	1.03
Taraz under 2.5 goals	98.9%	97.4%	78.9%	1.23×	1.03
Taraz under 1.5 goals	92.5%	92.2%	60.3%	1.53×	1.09
Taraz under 0.5 goals	64.0%	63.5%	29.5%	2.15×	1.58
Taraz over 0.5 goals	36.0%	36.5%	70.5%	0.52×	2.74
Taraz over 1.5 goals	7.5%	7.8%	39.7%	0.20×	12.79
Taraz over 2.5 goals	1.1%	2.6%	21.1%	0.12×	38.87
Taraz over 3.5 goals	0.1%	2.6%	9.7%	0.26×	38.92

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Taraz under 1.5 in 1st half	98.6%	96.1%	—	—	1.04
Taraz under 0.5 in 1st half	83.6%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Taraz over 0.5 in 1st half	16.4%	16.9%	—	—	5.92
Taraz over 1.5 in 1st half	1.4%	3.9%	—	—	25.55

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Taraz scores equally in both	67.1%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Taraz scores more in 2nd half	20.1%	22.3%	—	—	4.48
Taraz scores more in 1st half	12.8%	11.1%	—	—	8.97

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy (away no bet)	87.0%	84.0%	75.8%	1.11×	1.19
Draw (away no bet)	13.0%	16.0%	24.2%	0.66×	6.24

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Taraz even goals	70.5%	67.3%	54.0%	1.25×	1.49
Taraz odd goals	29.5%	32.7%	46.0%	0.71×	3.06

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	83.3%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	16.7%	17.0%	—	—	5.89

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.9%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.1%	31.6%	—	—	3.17

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	67.9%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Shakhter Karagandy to score 2+ in a row	65.7%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Either team to score 3+ in a row	38.3%	36.6%	—	—	2.74
Shakhter Karagandy to score 3+ in a row	37.9%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Taraz to score 2+ in a row	4.2%	2.6%	—	—	38.03
Taraz to score 3+ in a row	0.4%	2.5%	—	—	40.45

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	16.7%	13.6%	4.2%	3.21×	7.38
1-0	14.7%	11.4%	9.3%	1.22×	8.80
3-0	13.4%	11.4%	5.9%	1.92×	8.80
Any other score	9.7%	7.4%	12.2%	0.60×	13.53
2-1	7.5%	7.4%	5.5%	1.35×	13.54
4-0	8.1%	7.4%	5.5%	1.35×	13.54
1-1	5.4%	7.4%	8.0%	0.92×	13.54
3-1	6.0%	7.4%	7.6%	0.97×	13.54
0-0	4.9%	1.7%	3.0%	0.59×	57.55
0-1	3.4%	1.7%	6.8%	0.26×	57.56
0-2	0.6%	1.7%	5.5%	0.32×	57.58
0-3	0.1%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	57.58
0-4	0.0%	1.7%	3.0%	0.59×	57.58
1-2	1.4%	1.7%	8.9%	0.20×	57.57
1-3	0.2%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	57.58
1-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.8%	2.06×	57.58
2-2	1.7%	1.7%	3.0%	0.59×	57.57
2-3	0.2%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	57.58
2-4	0.0%	1.7%	1.3%	1.37×	57.58
3-2	1.3%	1.7%	1.3%	1.37×	57.57
3-3	0.2%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	57.58
3-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.8%	2.06×	57.58
4-1	3.6%	1.7%	3.0%	0.59×	57.56
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	0.8%	2.06×	57.58
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	57.58
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.4%	4.12×	57.58

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy (2nd half DNB)	90.0%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Taraz (2nd half DNB)	10.0%	12.0%	—	—	8.33

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy leading at HT (DNB)	90.0%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Taraz leading at HT (DNB)	10.0%	12.0%	—	—	8.33

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy or draw (1X)	94.0%	91.4%	62.4%	1.46×	1.09
Shakhter Karagandy or Taraz (12)	87.8%	86.4%	84.8%	1.02×	1.16
Taraz or draw (X2)	18.2%	19.6%	52.3%	0.37×	5.11

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy or draw at HT	93.5%	90.7%	—	—	1.10
Shakhter Karagandy or Taraz at HT	64.8%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Taraz or draw at HT	41.7%	42.3%	—	—	2.36

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy or draw (1UP)	94.0%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Taraz or draw (1UP)	18.2%	23.7%	—	—	4.22

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy or draw in 2nd half	92.6%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Shakhter Karagandy or Taraz in 2nd half	73.4%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Taraz or draw in 2nd half	34.0%	38.1%	—	—	2.63

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	46.6%	50.0%	—	—	2.00
A half drawn	53.4%	50.0%	—	—	2.00

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy (DNB)	93.2%	92.9%	55.9%	1.66×	1.08
Taraz (DNB)	6.8%	7.1%	44.1%	0.16×	14.03

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy to score first	80.2%	78.5%	—	—	1.28
Taraz to score first	14.9%	10.7%	—	—	9.34
No goal scored	4.9%	4.3%	—	—	23.13

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	68.0%	57.7%	48.1%	1.20×	1.73
Both teams to score	32.0%	42.3%	51.9%	0.81×	2.36

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	40.3%	41.7%	27.0%	1.54×	2.40
Not both score & over 2.5	27.7%	33.4%	21.5%	1.55×	3.00
Both score & over 2.5	26.6%	33.4%	44.3%	0.75×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	5.4%	8.4%	8.0%	1.04×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	94.8%	88.9%	86.1%	1.03×	1.13
Both teams to score 2+	5.2%	11.1%	13.9%	0.80×	9.02

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	82.7%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	17.3%	26.0%	—	—	3.84

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	74.2%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Both score 2nd half only	15.4%	15.6%	—	—	6.43
Both score 1st half only	8.6%	6.8%	—	—	14.70
Both score in both halves	1.9%	4.9%	—	—	20.38

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	89.6%	86.6%	—	—	1.16
Both teams to score by HT	10.4%	13.4%	—	—	7.47

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	56.3%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	43.7%	42.8%	—	—	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.0%	41.9%	39.7%	1.06×	2.39
4-6 goals	29.4%	27.0%	32.9%	0.82×	3.71
0-1 goals	23.0%	23.1%	18.1%	1.27×	4.34
7+ goals	2.6%	1.9%	10.1%	0.18×	53.87

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Taraz to score exactly 0	64.0%	50.7%	29.5%	1.72×	1.97
Taraz to score exactly 1	28.6%	27.6%	31.2%	0.88×	3.62
Taraz to score exactly 2	6.4%	8.8%	19.0%	0.46×	11.42
Taraz to score 3+	1.1%	4.6%	21.1%	0.22×	21.86

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy to score 3+	43.2%	35.5%	32.9%	1.08×	2.82
Shakhter Karagandy to score exactly 2	26.1%	26.1%	16.0%	1.63×	3.83
Shakhter Karagandy to score exactly 1	21.7%	23.3%	30.4%	0.77×	4.28
Shakhter Karagandy to score exactly 0	9.0%	10.5%	21.5%	0.49×	9.52

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy leading at HT	58.3%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Draw at HT	35.2%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Taraz leading at HT	6.5%	9.3%	—	—	10.73

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy -1: 1	58.2%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Shakhter Karagandy -1: X	23.6%	23.7%	—	—	4.23
Shakhter Karagandy -1: 2	18.2%	17.3%	—	—	5.79

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy (0:1)	58.2%	55.7%	31.6%	1.76×	1.80
Draw (0:1)	23.6%	24.4%	16.5%	1.48×	4.10
Taraz (0:1)	18.2%	17.7%	52.3%	0.34×	5.64

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Taraz (0:2)	41.8%	38.9%	68.4%	0.57×	2.57
Shakhter Karagandy (0:2)	34.7%	29.0%	20.3%	1.43×	3.45
Draw (0:2)	23.6%	20.0%	11.8%	1.70×	4.99

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Taraz (0:3)	65.3%	71.4%	79.7%	0.90×	1.40
Draw (0:3)	17.4%	16.0%	9.7%	1.65×	6.26
Shakhter Karagandy (0:3)	17.2%	16.0%	11.0%	1.46×	6.26

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Taraz (0:4)	82.8%	86.8%	89.0%	0.98×	1.15
Draw (0:4)	10.0%	4.9%	6.3%	0.77×	20.45
Shakhter Karagandy (0:4)	7.3%	4.8%	5.1%	0.96×	20.65

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy (1:0)	94.0%	92.4%	62.4%	1.48×	1.08
Draw (1:0)	5.0%	7.0%	17.3%	0.40×	14.33
Taraz (1:0)	0.9%	3.4%	20.7%	0.17×	29.10

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy (2:0)	99.1%	96.6%	79.3%	1.22×	1.04
Draw (2:0)	0.8%	2.4%	9.7%	0.25×	41.44
Taraz (2:0)	0.1%	2.4%	11.4%	0.21×	41.48

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.0%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
1st half highest scoring	28.8%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	23.2%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy clean sheet	64.0%	63.9%	29.5%	2.17×	1.56
Shakhter Karagandy to concede	36.0%	36.1%	70.5%	0.51×	2.77

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy clean sheet in 1st half	83.6%	85.1%	—	—	1.18
Shakhter Karagandy to concede in 1st half	16.4%	14.9%	—	—	6.72

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy clean sheet in 2nd half	76.5%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Shakhter Karagandy to concede in 2nd half	23.5%	17.4%	—	—	5.74

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy over 0.5 goals	91.0%	92.1%	78.5%	1.17×	1.09
Shakhter Karagandy under 3.5 goals	77.7%	77.4%	83.1%	0.93×	1.29
Shakhter Karagandy over 1.5 goals	69.3%	67.9%	48.5%	1.40×	1.47
Shakhter Karagandy under 2.5 goals	56.8%	58.6%	67.1%	0.87×	1.71
Shakhter Karagandy over 2.5 goals	43.2%	41.4%	32.9%	1.26×	2.41
Shakhter Karagandy under 1.5 goals	30.7%	32.1%	51.5%	0.62×	3.11
Shakhter Karagandy over 3.5 goals	22.3%	22.6%	16.9%	1.34×	4.43
Shakhter Karagandy under 0.5 goals	9.0%	7.9%	21.5%	0.37×	12.67

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy under 1.5 in 1st half	72.3%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Shakhter Karagandy over 0.5 in 1st half	64.5%	64.8%	—	—	1.54
Shakhter Karagandy under 0.5 in 1st half	35.5%	35.2%	—	—	2.84
Shakhter Karagandy over 1.5 in 1st half	27.7%	20.2%	—	—	4.96

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy scores more in 2nd half	44.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Shakhter Karagandy scores more in 1st half	28.3%	28.0%	—	—	3.57
Shakhter Karagandy scores equally in both	27.1%	28.0%	—	—	3.57

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	67.1%	63.3%	28.8%	2.20×	1.58
Taraz (home no bet)	32.9%	36.7%	71.2%	0.52×	2.72

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy even goals	50.4%	50.4%	48.5%	1.04×	1.98
Shakhter Karagandy odd goals	49.6%	49.6%	51.5%	0.96×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	30.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
HT 0-0	29.5%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
HT 2-0	15.9%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
Any other HT score	8.8%	7.1%	—	—	14.00
HT 0-1	5.4%	7.1%	—	—	14.05
HT 1-1	5.4%	7.1%	—	—	14.05
HT 2-1	2.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.49
HT 0-2	0.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.67
HT 1-2	0.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.67
HT 2-2	0.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.69

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy at HT / Shakhter Karagandy at FT	56.0%	58.0%	—	—	1.73
Draw at HT / Shakhter Karagandy at FT	23.8%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	8.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.64
Draw at HT / Taraz at FT	3.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.80
Taraz at HT / Taraz at FT	2.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Shakhter Karagandy at HT / Draw at FT	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
Taraz at HT / Shakhter Karagandy at FT	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
Taraz at HT / Draw at FT	1.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.85
Shakhter Karagandy at HT / Taraz at FT	0.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy to score last	79.9%	78.1%	—	—	1.28
Taraz to score last	15.2%	11.5%	—	—	8.71
No goal scored	4.9%	4.3%	—	—	23.13

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.1%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Shakhter Karagandy to lead by 1 at any time	86.5%	90.4%	—	—	1.11
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	63.9%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Shakhter Karagandy to lead by 2 at any time	61.8%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	36.9%	34.8%	—	—	2.87
Shakhter Karagandy to lead by 3 at any time	36.7%	34.8%	—	—	2.87
Taraz to lead by 1 at any time	16.4%	14.9%	—	—	6.73
Taraz to lead by 2 at any time	2.1%	1.6%	—	—	62.27
Taraz to lead by 3 at any time	0.2%	1.6%	—	—	64.23

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	88.1%	87.4%	81.4%	1.07×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.0%	78.5%	75.1%	1.05×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.4%	72.3%	72.2%	1.00×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.1%	72.2%	66.2%	1.09×	1.38
1-3 goals	63.1%	63.1%	54.9%	1.15×	1.58
2-4 goals	60.9%	63.1%	59.9%	1.05×	1.58
3-6 goals	51.7%	53.4%	55.7%	0.96×	1.87
3-5 goals	47.4%	48.5%	49.8%	0.97×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.0%	43.6%	39.7%	1.10×	2.29
1-2 goals	40.7%	43.6%	32.1%	1.36×	2.29
3-4 goals	38.3%	39.3%	43.5%	0.90×	2.55
4-6 goals	29.4%	30.6%	32.9%	0.93×	3.26
4-5 goals	25.1%	30.6%	27.0%	1.13×	3.27
5-6 goals	13.4%	15.1%	12.7%	1.19×	6.64
7+ goals	2.6%	2.6%	10.1%	0.25×	38.89

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy never behind	78.7%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Taraz never behind	8.6%	4.8%	—	—	20.71

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	48.5%	50.9%	46.8%	1.09×	1.96
Odd number of goals	51.5%	49.1%	53.2%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.1%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.9%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.3%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.7%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.1%	95.4%	97.0%	0.98×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	93.1%	92.2%	84.0%	1.10×	1.09
Under 4.5 goals	83.9%	82.1%	77.6%	1.06×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	77.0%	77.2%	81.9%	0.94×	1.30
Under 3.5 goals	68.0%	66.0%	57.4%	1.15×	1.52
Over 2.5 goals	54.3%	53.0%	65.4%	0.81×	1.89
Under 2.5 goals	45.7%	47.0%	34.6%	1.36×	2.13
Over 3.5 goals	32.0%	34.0%	42.6%	0.80×	2.94
Under 1.5 goals	23.0%	22.8%	18.1%	1.26×	4.39
Over 4.5 goals	16.1%	17.9%	22.4%	0.80×	5.60
Over 5.5 goals	6.9%	7.8%	16.0%	0.49×	12.82
Under 0.5 goals	4.9%	4.6%	3.0%	1.56×	21.70

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.3%	97.1%	89.2%	1.09×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.4%	92.4%	82.9%	1.11×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	80.9%	80.5%	72.0%	1.12×	1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	70.3%	72.2%	78.3%	0.92×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	58.8%	55.2%	44.8%	1.23×	1.81
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	41.2%	44.8%	55.2%	0.81×	2.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	29.7%	27.8%	21.7%	1.28×	3.60
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	19.1%	19.5%	28.0%	0.70×	5.12
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.6%	7.6%	17.1%	0.45×	13.13
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.7%	2.9%	10.8%	0.26×	35.08

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.6%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.5%	71.2%	—	—	1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.9%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.1%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.5%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.4%	11.0%	—	—	9.09

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.9%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	77.3%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	51.5%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.5%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.7%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.1%	17.3%	—	—	5.79

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Taraz not to score in both halves	96.1%	96.3%	—	—	1.04
Shakhter Karagandy not to score in both halves	51.8%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Shakhter Karagandy to score in both halves	48.2%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Taraz to score in both halves	3.9%	3.7%	—	—	27.26

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Only Shakhter Karagandy scores	59.0%	58.7%	27.0%	2.17×	1.71
Both teams score	32.0%	33.2%	51.9%	0.64×	3.02
Neither team scores	4.9%	4.7%	3.0%	1.58×	21.47
Only Taraz scores	4.1%	4.7%	19.0%	0.24×	21.51

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.7%	22.4%	16.9%	1.33×	4.46
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.4%	23.2%	0.97×	4.46
Exactly 1 goals	18.1%	17.6%	15.6%	1.12×	5.70
Exactly 4 goals	16.0%	17.5%	20.7%	0.85×	5.70
Exactly 5 goals	9.1%	7.8%	6.8%	1.15×	12.83
6 or more goals	6.9%	7.8%	16.0%	0.49×	12.83
Exactly 0 goals	4.9%	4.5%	3.0%	1.53×	22.18

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.3%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
No goals in 1st half	29.5%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
2 goals in 1st half	21.8%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
3+ goals in 1st half	12.4%	10.9%	—	—	9.18

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.5%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	32.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	19.1%	17.3%	—	—	5.78

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Taraz not to win both halves	99.6%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
Shakhter Karagandy not to win both halves	61.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Shakhter Karagandy to win both halves	38.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Taraz to win both halves	0.4%	2.7%	—	—	37.13

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Taraz to win neither half	86.6%	91.8%	—	—	1.09
Shakhter Karagandy to win either half	86.1%	91.6%	—	—	1.09
Shakhter Karagandy to win neither half	13.9%	8.4%	—	—	11.92
Taraz to win either half	13.4%	8.2%	—	—	12.18

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Taraz not to win to nil	95.9%	96.1%	81.0%	1.19×	1.04
Shakhter Karagandy to win to nil	59.0%	60.0%	27.0%	2.22×	1.67
Shakhter Karagandy not to win to nil	41.0%	40.0%	73.0%	0.55×	2.50
Taraz to win to nil	4.1%	3.9%	19.0%	0.20×	25.77

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhter Karagandy by 3+	34.7%	27.6%	20.3%	1.36×	3.62
Shakhter Karagandy by 1	23.6%	24.2%	16.5%	1.47×	4.14
Shakhter Karagandy by 2	23.6%	24.2%	11.8%	2.05×	4.14
Draw	12.2%	11.7%	15.2%	0.77×	8.52
Taraz by 1	5.0%	7.3%	17.3%	0.42×	13.75
Taraz by 2	0.8%	2.8%	9.7%	0.29×	35.59
Taraz by 3+	0.1%	2.8%	11.4%	0.25×	35.61