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Shandong Taishan v Shenzhen Xinpengcheng — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · CHN-Super League · 2627

CHN-Super League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Shandong Taishan win
62.4%
Draw
20.5%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win
17.1%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.17–1.06 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.41–1.17 2-1 9% 69% 63%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan to win 62.4% 63.5% 46.0% 1.38× 1.58
Draw 20.5% 22.1% 26.2% 0.84× 4.53
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to win 17.1% 19.1% 28.0% 0.68× 5.22
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan & both teams score 31.9% 32.7% 23.0% 1.42× 3.06
Shandong Taishan & not both score 30.5% 32.6% 23.2% 1.41× 3.06
Draw & both teams score 16.2% 17.7% 22.1% 0.80× 5.64
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng & both teams score 10.0% 7.3% 18.5% 0.40× 13.62
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng & not both score 7.1% 7.3% 9.8% 0.75× 13.68
Draw & not both score 4.3% 3.7% 4.3% 0.85× 27.07
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan & over 1.5 54.0% 49.3% 36.4% 1.35× 2.03
Shandong Taishan & over 2.5 44.7% 44.0% 29.4% 1.50× 2.27
Shandong Taishan & under 3.5 34.3% 33.2% 27.3% 1.21× 3.01
Shandong Taishan & over 3.5 28.0% 25.5% 18.9% 1.35× 3.92
Shandong Taishan & under 2.5 17.7% 17.6% 16.9% 1.04× 5.69
Draw & over 1.5 16.2% 17.6% 22.1% 0.79× 5.70
Draw & under 2.5 13.8% 12.7% 16.4% 0.78× 7.86
Draw & under 3.5 13.8% 12.7% 16.4% 0.78× 7.86
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng & over 1.5 13.3% 12.7% 23.7% 0.54× 7.86
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng & under 3.5 11.7% 12.7% 15.9% 0.80× 7.87
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng & over 2.5 11.0% 12.7% 21.0% 0.61× 7.87
Shandong Taishan & under 1.5 8.3% 7.5% 9.8% 0.76× 13.40
Draw & over 2.5 6.7% 7.5% 10.0% 0.74× 13.41
Draw & over 3.5 6.7% 7.5% 10.0% 0.74× 13.41
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng & under 2.5 6.1% 7.5% 7.3% 1.02× 13.42
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng & over 3.5 5.4% 7.5% 12.3% 0.61× 13.42
Draw & under 1.5 4.3% 4.6% 4.3% 1.05× 21.92
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng & under 1.5 3.9% 4.6% 4.6% 1.00× 21.94
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan (1UP) 75.3% 79.6% 1.26
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (1UP) 36.6% 38.1% 2.63
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan (2UP) 62.4% 67.0% 1.49
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (2UP) 17.1% 22.8% 4.38
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan to win 2nd half 50.7% 48.5% 2.06
2nd half drawn 30.3% 33.7% 2.97
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to win 2nd half 18.9% 20.2% 4.95
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan (+0.5) 82.9% 82.3% 72.0% 1.14× 1.22
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (+2.5) 79.3% 78.6% 89.3% 0.88× 1.27
Shandong Taishan (-0.5) 62.4% 64.1% 46.0% 1.39× 1.56
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (+1.5) 60.4% 64.0% 74.7% 0.86× 1.56
Shandong Taishan (-1.5) 39.6% 36.0% 25.3% 1.42× 2.78
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (+0.5) 37.7% 35.9% 54.0% 0.67× 2.78
Shandong Taishan (-2.5) 20.7% 21.4% 10.7% 2.00× 4.68
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (-0.5) 17.1% 17.7% 28.0% 0.63× 5.65
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to concede 88.5% 89.9% 86.1% 1.04× 1.11
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng clean sheet 11.5% 10.1% 13.9% 0.72× 9.95
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to concede in 1st half 60.6% 60.4% 1.66
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng clean sheet in 1st half 39.4% 39.6% 2.53
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng under 3.5 goals 97.7% 97.3% 92.9% 1.05× 1.03
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng under 2.5 goals 90.9% 92.6% 83.1% 1.11× 1.08
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng under 1.5 goals 71.6% 71.9% 60.8% 1.18× 1.39
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng over 0.5 goals 65.2% 67.1% 72.7% 0.92× 1.49
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng under 0.5 goals 34.8% 32.9% 27.3% 1.20× 3.04
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng over 1.5 goals 28.4% 28.1% 39.2% 0.72× 3.56
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng over 2.5 goals 9.1% 7.4% 16.9% 0.44× 13.52
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng over 3.5 goals 2.3% 2.7% 7.1% 0.38× 37.54
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng under 1.5 in 1st half 93.2% 93.3% 1.07
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng under 0.5 in 1st half 65.6% 67.0% 1.49
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng over 0.5 in 1st half 34.4% 33.0% 3.04
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng over 1.5 in 1st half 6.8% 6.7% 14.85
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan (away no bet) 75.2% 78.4% 63.7% 1.23× 1.28
Draw (away no bet) 24.8% 21.6% 36.3% 0.60× 4.63
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng even goals 56.1% 57.9% 54.7% 1.06× 1.73
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng odd goals 43.9% 42.1% 45.3% 0.93× 2.38
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 78.2% 79.7% 1.25
Both halves over 1.5 goals 21.8% 20.3% 4.94
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 73.2% 71.4% 1.40
Both halves under 1.5 goals 26.8% 28.6% 3.50
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 66.7% 64.8% 1.54
Shandong Taishan to score 2+ in a row 55.5% 59.1% 1.69
Either team to score 3+ in a row 30.4% 33.8% 2.96
Shandong Taishan to score 3+ in a row 26.7% 25.1% 3.98
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to score 2+ in a row 18.8% 17.8% 5.61
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to score 3+ in a row 4.1% 3.4% 29.34
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-1 9.9% 7.3% 7.5% 0.97× 13.73
1-1 9.5% 7.3% 12.3% 0.59× 13.74
2-0 9.4% 7.3% 7.3% 1.00× 13.74
1-0 8.3% 7.3% 9.8% 0.74× 13.74
3-1 7.1% 7.3% 6.2% 1.18× 13.75
Any other score 7.3% 7.3% 4.8% 1.52× 13.75
3-0 6.8% 7.3% 3.4% 2.13× 13.75
2-2 5.2% 7.3% 7.5% 0.97× 13.76
0-0 4.3% 1.8% 4.3% 0.42× 55.40
0-1 3.9% 1.8% 4.6% 0.40× 55.41
1-2 4.8% 1.8% 7.5% 0.24× 55.39
3-2 3.8% 1.8% 3.6% 0.50× 55.41
4-0 3.7% 1.8% 2.7% 0.66× 55.42
4-1 3.9% 1.8% 2.5% 0.72× 55.41
0-2 2.2% 1.8% 3.0% 0.61× 55.45
1-3 1.7% 1.8% 3.2% 0.57× 55.47
2-3 1.8% 1.8% 3.2% 0.57× 55.46
3-3 1.3% 1.8% 2.1% 0.88× 55.48
4-2 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.13× 55.46
0-3 0.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.13× 55.49
0-4 0.2% 1.8% 1.1% 1.58× 55.50
1-4 0.4% 1.8% 1.1% 1.58× 55.50
2-4 0.5% 1.8% 1.4% 1.32× 55.50
3-4 0.3% 1.8% 1.6% 1.13× 55.50
4-3 0.7% 1.8% 0.7% 2.64× 55.49
4-4 0.2% 1.8% 0.9% 1.98× 55.50
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan leading at HT (DNB) 74.3% 73.9% 1.35
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng leading at HT (DNB) 25.7% 26.1% 3.84
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan or draw (1X) 82.9% 80.9% 72.0% 1.12× 1.24
Shandong Taishan or Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (12) 79.5% 77.9% 73.8% 1.06× 1.28
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng or draw (X2) 37.7% 36.5% 54.0% 0.68× 2.74
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan or draw at HT 83.9% 81.8% 1.22
Shandong Taishan or Shenzhen Xinpengcheng at HT 62.9% 63.2% 1.58
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng or draw at HT 53.3% 52.1% 1.92
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan or draw (1UP) 82.9% 83.9% 1.19
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng or draw (1UP) 37.7% 45.6% 2.19
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan or draw in 2nd half 81.1% 79.8% 1.25
Shandong Taishan or Shenzhen Xinpengcheng in 2nd half 69.7% 66.3% 1.51
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng or draw in 2nd half 49.3% 51.5% 1.94
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 55.8% 57.8% 1.73
Neither half drawn 44.2% 42.2% 2.37
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan (DNB) 78.4% 78.2% 62.2% 1.26× 1.28
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (DNB) 21.6% 21.8% 37.8% 0.58× 4.58
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan to score first 64.3% 66.9% 1.49
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to score first 31.3% 31.8% 3.15
No goal scored 4.3% 4.1% 24.67
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 58.0% 56.7% 63.1% 0.90× 1.76
Not both teams to score 42.0% 43.3% 36.9% 1.17× 2.31
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 48.6% 45.4% 51.0% 0.89× 2.20
Not both score & under 2.5 28.1% 31.5% 28.0% 1.12× 3.17
Not both score & over 2.5 13.9% 11.7% 9.1% 1.29× 8.51
Both score & under 2.5 9.5% 8.7% 12.3% 0.71× 11.43
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 81.9% 81.2% 78.4% 1.04× 1.23
Both teams to score 2+ 18.1% 18.8% 21.6% 0.87× 5.32
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 66.6% 69.4% 1.44
Both teams to score in 2nd half 33.4% 30.6% 3.27
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 52.7% 54.9% 1.82
Both score 2nd half only 26.4% 24.7% 4.05
Both score 1st half only 14.0% 11.6% 8.63
Both score in both halves 6.9% 6.5% 15.43
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 79.1% 79.9% 1.25
Both teams to score by HT 20.9% 20.1% 4.98
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 62.9% 63.1% 1.59
A half without a goal 37.1% 36.9% 2.71
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 43.3% 43.2% 41.2% 1.05× 2.32
4-6 goals 35.6% 35.3% 36.9% 0.96× 2.84
0-1 goals 16.5% 20.7% 18.2% 1.13× 4.84
7+ goals 4.6% 2.0% 4.1% 0.48× 50.46
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to score exactly 1 36.7% 34.6% 33.7% 1.03× 2.89
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to score exactly 0 34.8% 33.3% 27.3% 1.22× 3.00
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to score exactly 2 19.4% 18.4% 22.6% 0.82× 5.44
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to score 3+ 9.1% 7.7% 16.9% 0.46× 13.00
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan to score 3+ 36.8% 36.0% 26.2% 1.37× 2.78
Shandong Taishan to score exactly 2 26.9% 27.1% 26.2% 1.03× 3.70
Shandong Taishan to score exactly 1 24.8% 23.0% 34.2% 0.67× 4.35
Shandong Taishan to score exactly 0 11.5% 13.4% 13.9% 0.97× 7.45
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan leading at HT 46.7% 47.9% 2.09
Draw at HT 37.1% 36.8% 2.72
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng leading at HT 16.1% 18.2% 5.48
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan -1: 1 39.6% 33.0% 3.03
Shandong Taishan -1: 2 37.7% 32.8% 3.05
Shandong Taishan -1: X 22.8% 23.9% 4.18
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan (0:1) 39.6% 30.8% 25.3% 1.22× 3.25
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (0:1) 37.7% 30.6% 54.0% 0.57× 3.27
Draw (0:1) 22.8% 24.4% 21.0% 1.17× 4.10
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (0:2) 60.4% 69.1% 74.7% 0.92× 1.45
Shandong Taishan (0:2) 20.7% 21.5% 10.7% 2.01× 4.66
Draw (0:2) 18.9% 16.4% 14.8% 1.11× 6.11
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (0:3) 79.3% 76.4% 89.3% 0.86× 1.31
Draw (0:3) 11.6% 12.4% 5.9% 2.09× 8.07
Shandong Taishan (0:3) 9.1% 7.0% 5.0% 1.39× 14.36
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (0:4) 90.9% 93.9% 95.0% 0.99× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 5.7% 7.0% 3.9% 1.81× 14.24
Shandong Taishan (0:4) 3.4% 1.3% 1.4% 0.92× 79.62
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan (1:0) 82.9% 80.6% 72.0% 1.12× 1.24
Draw (1:0) 10.9% 11.7% 16.4% 0.71× 8.53
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (1:0) 6.2% 8.5% 11.8% 0.72× 11.75
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan (2:0) 93.8% 91.7% 88.2% 1.04× 1.09
Draw (2:0) 4.5% 2.7% 7.1% 0.39× 36.72
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (2:0) 1.7% 2.7% 5.0% 0.53× 37.38
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.3% 48.7% 2.05
1st half highest scoring 27.7% 26.1% 3.83
Halves equal 23.1% 23.2% 4.32
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan to concede 65.2% 66.7% 72.7% 0.92× 1.50
Shandong Taishan clean sheet 34.8% 33.3% 27.3% 1.22× 3.01
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan clean sheet in 1st half 65.6% 67.2% 1.49
Shandong Taishan to concede in 1st half 34.4% 32.8% 3.05
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan over 0.5 goals 88.5% 87.8% 86.1% 1.02× 1.14
Shandong Taishan under 3.5 goals 82.6% 82.4% 89.5% 0.92× 1.21
Shandong Taishan over 1.5 goals 63.7% 62.7% 52.2% 1.20× 1.60
Shandong Taishan under 2.5 goals 63.2% 62.7% 73.8% 0.85× 1.60
Shandong Taishan over 2.5 goals 36.8% 37.3% 26.2% 1.42× 2.68
Shandong Taishan under 1.5 goals 36.3% 37.3% 47.8% 0.78× 2.68
Shandong Taishan over 3.5 goals 17.4% 17.6% 10.5% 1.68× 5.69
Shandong Taishan under 0.5 goals 11.5% 12.2% 13.9% 0.88× 8.22
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan under 1.5 in 1st half 76.1% 79.0% 1.27
Shandong Taishan over 0.5 in 1st half 60.6% 60.3% 1.66
Shandong Taishan under 0.5 in 1st half 39.4% 39.7% 2.52
Shandong Taishan over 1.5 in 1st half 23.9% 21.0% 4.76
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (home no bet) 45.5% 51.2% 51.7% 0.99× 1.95
Draw (home no bet) 54.5% 48.8% 48.3% 1.01× 2.05
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan even goals 50.7% 50.2% 48.3% 1.04× 1.99
Shandong Taishan odd goals 49.3% 49.8% 51.7% 0.96× 2.01
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 25.9% 28.0% 3.57
HT 1-0 24.0% 22.7% 4.41
HT 2-0 11.2% 11.2% 8.95
HT 0-1 10.8% 11.2% 8.95
HT 1-1 10.2% 11.2% 8.96
Any other HT score 7.7% 7.7% 13.00
HT 2-1 4.7% 2.5% 39.73
HT 0-2 2.3% 2.5% 39.87
HT 1-2 2.1% 2.5% 39.88
HT 2-2 1.0% 2.5% 39.94
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan at HT / Shandong Taishan at FT 40.4% 42.2% 2.37
Draw at HT / Shandong Taishan at FT 18.6% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 11.6% 12.0% 8.36
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng at HT / Shenzhen Xinpengcheng at FT 8.7% 6.6% 15.18
Draw at HT / Shenzhen Xinpengcheng at FT 6.9% 6.6% 15.23
Shandong Taishan at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.4% 29.31
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng at HT / Draw at FT 4.1% 3.4% 29.34
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng at HT / Shandong Taishan at FT 3.3% 3.4% 29.37
Shandong Taishan at HT / Shenzhen Xinpengcheng at FT 1.6% 3.4% 29.45
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan to score last 64.4% 60.4% 1.66
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to score last 31.3% 35.7% 2.80
No goal scored 4.3% 4.1% 24.67
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.7% 95.9% 1.04
Shandong Taishan to lead by 1 at any time 75.3% 78.3% 1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 57.7% 59.6% 1.68
Shandong Taishan to lead by 2 at any time 46.9% 46.1% 2.17
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to lead by 1 at any time 36.6% 37.2% 2.69
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 26.9% 26.0% 3.85
Shandong Taishan to lead by 3 at any time 24.1% 19.8% 5.04
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to lead by 2 at any time 11.1% 11.3% 8.85
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to lead by 3 at any time 2.8% 2.6% 38.33
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 84.9% 81.6% 84.7% 0.96× 1.23
2-6 goals 78.9% 78.9% 77.9% 1.01× 1.27
1-4 goals 73.4% 73.6% 74.7% 0.99× 1.36
2-5 goals 72.7% 73.6% 70.8% 1.04× 1.36
2-4 goals 61.2% 62.3% 60.8% 1.02× 1.61
3-6 goals 57.9% 58.8% 56.0% 1.05× 1.70
1-3 goals 55.5% 58.7% 55.1% 1.06× 1.70
3-5 goals 51.7% 52.3% 49.0% 1.07× 1.91
2-3 goals 43.3% 43.6% 41.2% 1.06× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.1% 43.6% 39.0% 1.12× 2.29
4-6 goals 35.6% 38.8% 36.9% 1.05× 2.58
1-2 goals 33.2% 34.1% 36.0% 0.95× 2.93
4-5 goals 29.4% 30.5% 29.8% 1.02× 3.28
5-6 goals 17.7% 18.1% 17.3% 1.05× 5.52
7+ goals 4.6% 2.1% 4.1% 0.50× 48.55
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan never behind 59.1% 63.2% 1.58
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng never behind 20.4% 23.8% 4.21
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.3% 50.1% 46.2% 1.08× 2.00
Even number of goals 50.7% 49.9% 53.8% 0.93× 2.01
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.5% 51.9% 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 46.5% 48.1% 2.08
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.4% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.6% 48.3% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.7% 95.6% 95.7% 1.00× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 89.2% 88.8% 88.8% 1.00× 1.13
Over 1.5 goals 83.5% 81.0% 81.8% 0.99× 1.24
Under 4.5 goals 77.7% 78.3% 78.8% 0.99× 1.28
Over 2.5 goals 62.4% 61.5% 59.9% 1.03× 1.63
Under 3.5 goals 59.8% 57.8% 59.2% 0.98× 1.73
Over 3.5 goals 40.2% 42.2% 40.8% 1.04× 2.37
Under 2.5 goals 37.6% 38.5% 40.1% 0.96× 2.60
Over 4.5 goals 22.3% 21.7% 21.2% 1.03× 4.60
Under 1.5 goals 16.5% 19.0% 18.2% 1.04× 5.26
Over 5.5 goals 10.8% 11.2% 11.2% 1.00× 8.92
Under 0.5 goals 4.3% 4.4% 4.3% 1.01× 22.81
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 95.1% 97.2% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 87.8% 88.1% 87.6% 1.01× 1.14
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 79.1% 76.6% 76.7% 1.00× 1.31
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 72.8% 72.1% 73.7% 0.98× 1.39
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 51.7% 53.0% 50.4% 1.05× 1.89
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 48.3% 47.0% 49.6% 0.95× 2.13
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 27.2% 27.9% 26.3% 1.06× 3.59
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 20.9% 23.4% 23.3% 1.00× 4.27
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 12.2% 11.9% 12.4% 0.96× 8.41
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 4.9% 2.8% 4.4% 0.64× 35.70
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 84.5% 83.8% 1.19
Over 0.5 in 1st half 74.1% 72.5% 1.38
Under 1.5 in 1st half 60.7% 63.0% 1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half 39.3% 37.0% 2.70
Under 0.5 in 1st half 25.9% 27.5% 3.63
Over 2.5 in 1st half 15.5% 16.2% 6.18
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 84.4% 82.1% 1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 71.3% 76.2% 1.31
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 55.8% 54.1% 1.85
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 44.2% 45.9% 2.18
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 28.7% 23.8% 4.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 15.6% 17.9% 5.59
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng not to score in both halves 83.9% 81.6% 1.23
Shandong Taishan not to score in both halves 57.0% 59.9% 1.67
Shandong Taishan to score in both halves 43.0% 40.1% 2.50
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to score in both halves 16.1% 18.4% 5.43
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 58.0% 57.8% 63.1% 0.92× 1.73
Only Shandong Taishan scores 30.5% 35.9% 23.2% 1.55× 2.78
Only Shenzhen Xinpengcheng scores 7.1% 6.7% 9.8% 0.68× 15.04
Neither team scores 4.3% 3.9% 4.3% 0.91× 25.51
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.2% 21.5% 19.4% 1.11× 4.64
Exactly 2 goals 21.0% 21.5% 22.1% 0.97× 4.64
Exactly 4 goals 17.9% 18.6% 19.8% 0.94× 5.39
Exactly 1 goals 12.2% 12.4% 14.1% 0.88× 8.09
Exactly 5 goals 11.5% 12.4% 10.3% 1.21× 8.10
6 or more goals 10.8% 12.3% 11.2% 1.11× 8.10
Exactly 0 goals 4.3% 4.4% 4.3% 1.01× 22.85
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 55.8% 54.8% 1.83
1 goal in 2nd half 28.6% 28.5% 3.51
No goals in 2nd half 15.6% 18.3% 5.48
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng not to win both halves 96.9% 96.7% 1.03
Shandong Taishan not to win both halves 76.2% 79.9% 1.25
Shandong Taishan to win both halves 23.8% 20.1% 4.98
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to win both halves 3.1% 3.3% 30.09
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan to win either half 73.7% 72.4% 1.38
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to win neither half 68.0% 67.2% 1.49
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to win either half 32.0% 32.8% 3.05
Shandong Taishan to win neither half 26.3% 27.6% 3.62
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng not to win to nil 92.9% 92.3% 90.2% 1.02× 1.08
Shandong Taishan not to win to nil 69.5% 65.0% 76.8% 0.85× 1.54
Shandong Taishan to win to nil 30.5% 35.0% 23.2% 1.51× 2.85
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to win to nil 7.1% 7.7% 9.8% 0.78× 13.07
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shandong Taishan by 1 22.8% 23.7% 21.0% 1.13× 4.21
Shandong Taishan by 3+ 20.7% 23.7% 10.7% 2.22× 4.22
Draw 20.5% 23.7% 26.2% 0.91× 4.22
Shandong Taishan by 2 18.9% 17.0% 14.8% 1.15× 5.89
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng by 1 10.9% 11.8% 16.4% 0.72× 8.45
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng by 2 4.5% 2.8% 7.1% 0.40× 35.13
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng by 3+ 1.7% 2.8% 5.0% 0.56× 35.53
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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