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Shanghai Shenhua v Qingdao West Coast — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · CHN-Super League · 2627

CHN-Super League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Shanghai Shenhua win
47.1%
model 48.9%
Draw
26.4%
model 25.0%
Qingdao West Coast win
26.5%
model 26.1%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 11.8%
  2. 2-1 9.6%
  3. 1-0 9.4%
  4. 2-0 8.2%
  5. 1-2 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.553.9% Under 2.546.1%
BTTS yes56.2% BTTS no43.8%
Shanghai Shenhua 1+81.3% Shanghai Shenhua 2+49.9%
Qingdao West Coast 1+68.7% Qingdao West Coast 2+32.4%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.16. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
24/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
100%
★ Best pick
1-3 goals
Multi goal · usually 55%
62.1% fair odds 1.61
moderate signal · 3852 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Shanghai Shenhua over 0.5 goals
Home goals O/U · usually 86%
82.6% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1431 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0107 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Shanghai Shenhua have an estimated 47.1% win probability, against 26.5% for Qingdao West Coast and 26.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.67 for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.16 for Qingdao West Coast.

Why Shanghai Shenhua

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.4%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Qingdao West Coast can win

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Shanghai Shenhua, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Qingdao West Coast, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Shanghai Shenhua: 49% possession, 17.8 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Qingdao West Coast: 47% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Shanghai Shenhua are the model's most likely outcome at 47.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%. Confidence 24/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.67–1.16 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.68–1.16 1-1 12% 54% 56%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua to win 49.0% 47.4% 46.0% 1.03× 2.11
Qingdao West Coast to win 26.0% 27.9% 27.9% 1.00× 3.59
Draw 25.0% 27.9% 26.3% 1.06× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua & not both score 25.1% 25.2% 23.4% 1.08× 3.97
Shanghai Shenhua & both teams score 23.9% 21.8% 22.9% 0.95× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 18.7% 18.0% 22.2% 0.81× 5.56
Qingdao West Coast & both teams score 13.5% 13.3% 18.4% 0.72× 7.54
Qingdao West Coast & not both score 12.4% 13.3% 9.8% 1.36× 7.54
Draw & not both score 6.3% 8.3% 4.3% 1.93× 12.01
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua & over 1.5 39.6% 34.9% 36.3% 0.96× 2.87
Shanghai Shenhua & under 3.5 31.9% 30.7% 27.4% 1.12× 3.25
Shanghai Shenhua & over 2.5 31.3% 30.7% 29.3% 1.05× 3.25
Draw & over 1.5 18.7% 18.0% 22.2% 0.81× 5.55
Qingdao West Coast & over 1.5 19.6% 18.0% 23.6% 0.76× 5.55
Shanghai Shenhua & under 2.5 17.7% 18.0% 17.0% 1.06× 5.55
Draw & under 2.5 18.1% 18.0% 16.6% 1.09× 5.55
Draw & under 3.5 18.1% 18.0% 16.6% 1.09× 5.55
Qingdao West Coast & under 3.5 18.5% 18.0% 15.9% 1.13× 5.55
Shanghai Shenhua & over 3.5 17.2% 18.0% 18.8% 0.96× 5.56
Qingdao West Coast & over 2.5 15.6% 18.0% 20.9% 0.86× 5.56
Qingdao West Coast & under 2.5 10.3% 12.8% 7.3% 1.77× 7.79
Shanghai Shenhua & under 1.5 9.4% 7.9% 10.0% 0.79× 12.62
Qingdao West Coast & over 3.5 7.5% 7.9% 12.2% 0.65× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 6.3% 7.9% 4.3% 1.84× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 6.9% 7.9% 10.0% 0.79× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 6.9% 7.9% 10.0% 0.79× 12.63
Qingdao West Coast & under 1.5 6.4% 7.9% 4.5% 1.75× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua (1UP) 64.3% 63.0% — — 1.59
Qingdao West Coast (1UP) 44.4% 38.8% — — 2.58
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua (2UP) 49.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Qingdao West Coast (2UP) 26.0% 25.1% — — 3.98
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua to win 2nd half 40.1% 41.8% — — 2.39
2nd half drawn 34.5% 34.0% — — 2.94
Qingdao West Coast to win 2nd half 25.4% 26.0% — — 3.84
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao West Coast under 1.5 in 2nd half 84.6% 84.2% — — 1.19
Qingdao West Coast over 0.5 in 2nd half 50.1% 52.4% — — 1.91
Qingdao West Coast under 0.5 in 2nd half 49.9% 47.6% — — 2.10
Qingdao West Coast over 1.5 in 2nd half 15.4% 15.8% — — 6.34
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua under 1.5 in 2nd half 75.2% 75.1% — — 1.33
Shanghai Shenhua over 0.5 in 2nd half 61.5% 63.1% — — 1.59
Shanghai Shenhua under 0.5 in 2nd half 38.5% 36.9% — — 2.71
Shanghai Shenhua over 1.5 in 2nd half 24.8% 24.9% — — 4.01
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao West Coast (+2.5) 88.7% 88.5% 89.3% 0.99× 1.13
Shanghai Shenhua (+0.5) 74.0% 73.7% 72.1% 1.02× 1.36
Qingdao West Coast (+1.5) 73.6% 73.7% 74.8% 0.98× 1.36
Qingdao West Coast (+0.5) 51.0% 52.4% 54.0% 0.97× 1.91
Shanghai Shenhua (-0.5) 49.0% 47.6% 46.0% 1.03× 2.10
Shanghai Shenhua (-1.5) 26.4% 26.3% 25.2% 1.05× 3.80
Qingdao West Coast (-0.5) 26.0% 26.3% 27.9% 0.94× 3.80
Shanghai Shenhua (-2.5) 11.3% 11.5% 10.7% 1.08× 8.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao West Coast to concede 81.3% 81.4% 86.2% 0.95× 1.23
Qingdao West Coast clean sheet 18.7% 18.6% 13.8% 1.34× 5.39
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao West Coast to concede in 1st half 51.3% 50.9% — — 1.97
Qingdao West Coast clean sheet in 1st half 48.7% 49.1% — — 2.04
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao West Coast to concede in 2nd half 61.5% 61.8% — — 1.62
Qingdao West Coast clean sheet in 2nd half 38.5% 38.2% — — 2.62
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao West Coast under 6.5 corners 87.1% 85.2% — — 1.17
Qingdao West Coast under 5.5 corners 78.0% 76.0% — — 1.32
Qingdao West Coast over 2.5 corners 70.3% 71.6% — — 1.40
Qingdao West Coast under 4.5 corners 64.8% 61.8% — — 1.62
Qingdao West Coast over 3.5 corners 52.0% 53.1% — — 1.88
Qingdao West Coast under 3.5 corners 48.0% 46.9% — — 2.13
Qingdao West Coast over 4.5 corners 35.2% 38.2% — — 2.61
Qingdao West Coast under 2.5 corners 29.7% 28.4% — — 3.52
Qingdao West Coast over 5.5 corners 22.0% 24.0% — — 4.18
Qingdao West Coast over 6.5 corners 12.9% 14.8% — — 6.77
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao West Coast under 3.5 goals 97.0% 97.5% 93.0% 1.05× 1.03
Qingdao West Coast under 2.5 goals 88.8% 87.8% 83.2% 1.06× 1.14
Qingdao West Coast over 0.5 goals 68.6% 68.0% 72.6% 0.94× 1.47
Qingdao West Coast under 1.5 goals 67.8% 68.0% 61.0% 1.11× 1.47
Qingdao West Coast over 1.5 goals 32.2% 32.0% 39.0% 0.82× 3.13
Qingdao West Coast under 0.5 goals 31.4% 32.0% 27.4% 1.17× 3.13
Qingdao West Coast over 2.5 goals 11.2% 12.2% 16.8% 0.73× 8.21
Qingdao West Coast over 3.5 goals 3.0% 2.5% 7.0% 0.36× 39.81
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao West Coast under 1.5 in 1st half 92.1% 93.9% — — 1.07
Qingdao West Coast under 0.5 in 1st half 62.9% 63.2% — — 1.58
Qingdao West Coast over 0.5 in 1st half 37.1% 36.8% — — 2.72
Qingdao West Coast over 1.5 in 1st half 7.9% 6.1% — — 16.42
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao West Coast scores equally in both 42.4% 43.6% — — 2.29
Qingdao West Coast scores more in 2nd half 36.2% 37.3% — — 2.68
Qingdao West Coast scores more in 1st half 21.4% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua (away no bet) 66.2% 66.4% 63.6% 1.04× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 33.8% 33.6% 36.4% 0.92× 2.98
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao West Coast even goals 54.9% 52.6% 54.6% 0.96× 1.90
Qingdao West Coast odd goals 45.1% 47.4% 45.4% 1.04× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 83.7% 83.2% — — 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 16.3% 16.8% — — 5.96
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 66.2% 67.8% — — 1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals 33.8% 32.2% — — 3.10
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 58.1% 55.0% — — 1.82
Shanghai Shenhua to score 2+ in a row 41.4% 38.7% — — 2.59
Qingdao West Coast to score 2+ in a row 23.4% 19.5% — — 5.12
Either team to score 3+ in a row 21.6% 19.5% — — 5.13
Shanghai Shenhua to score 3+ in a row 15.9% 16.1% — — 6.21
Qingdao West Coast to score 3+ in a row 6.0% 5.5% — — 18.28
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua corners (+3.5) 95.9% 95.7% — — 1.05
Shanghai Shenhua corners (+2.5) 93.0% 89.6% — — 1.12
Shanghai Shenhua corners (+1.5) 88.7% 84.5% — — 1.18
Shanghai Shenhua corners (-1.5) 66.0% 65.9% — — 1.52
Shanghai Shenhua corners (-2.5) 56.0% 57.2% — — 1.75
Qingdao West Coast corners (+3.5) 54.1% 52.4% — — 1.91
Shanghai Shenhua corners (-3.5) 45.9% 47.6% — — 2.10
Qingdao West Coast corners (+2.5) 44.0% 42.8% — — 2.33
Qingdao West Coast corners (+1.5) 34.1% 34.1% — — 2.93
Qingdao West Coast corners (-1.5) 11.3% 15.5% — — 6.45
Qingdao West Coast corners (-2.5) 7.0% 10.4% — — 9.60
Qingdao West Coast corners (-3.5) 4.1% 4.3% — — 23.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 42.4% 38.3% — — 2.61
9-11 corners 29.3% 31.2% — — 3.21
0-8 corners 28.3% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 80.3% 80.7% — — 1.24
Over 8.5 corners 71.7% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 12.5 corners 66.5% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 9.5 corners 62.0% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 11.5 corners 57.6% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 10.5 corners 52.1% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 10.5 corners 47.9% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 11.5 corners 42.4% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 9.5 corners 38.0% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 12.5 corners 33.5% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 8.5 corners 28.3% 27.5% — — 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 19.7% 19.3% — — 5.17
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 11.8% 11.5% 12.5% 0.92× 8.71
1-0 9.4% 7.4% 10.0% 0.74× 13.51
2-1 9.6% 7.4% 7.5% 0.99× 13.51
1-2 6.6% 7.4% 7.5% 0.99× 13.51
2-0 8.3% 7.4% 7.3% 1.02× 13.51
0-0 6.3% 7.4% 4.3% 1.72× 13.51
0-1 6.4% 7.4% 4.5% 1.63× 13.51
2-2 5.5% 7.4% 7.5% 0.99× 13.51
3-1 5.3% 7.4% 6.1% 1.21× 13.51
0-2 3.9% 1.7% 2.9% 0.58× 58.30
0-3 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.31
0-4 0.4% 1.7% 1.1% 1.51× 58.32
1-3 2.6% 1.7% 3.2% 0.54× 58.30
1-4 0.7% 1.7% 1.1% 1.51× 58.32
2-3 2.1% 1.7% 3.2% 0.54× 58.31
2-4 0.6% 1.7% 1.4% 1.26× 58.32
3-0 4.6% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.29
3-2 3.1% 1.7% 3.6% 0.47× 58.30
3-3 1.2% 1.7% 2.0% 0.84× 58.31
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.32
4-0 1.9% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.31
4-1 2.2% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.31
4-2 1.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.31
4-3 0.5% 1.7% 0.7% 2.52× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 58.32
Any other score 3.4% 1.7% 4.8% 0.36× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua (2nd half DNB) 61.2% 62.8% — — 1.59
Qingdao West Coast (2nd half DNB) 38.8% 37.2% — — 2.69
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua leading at HT (DNB) 64.0% 66.7% — — 1.50
Qingdao West Coast leading at HT (DNB) 36.0% 33.4% — — 3.00
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua or Qingdao West Coast (12) 75.0% 72.1% 73.7% 0.98× 1.39
Shanghai Shenhua or draw (1X) 74.0% 72.1% 72.1% 1.00× 1.39
Qingdao West Coast or draw (X2) 51.0% 52.6% 54.0% 0.97× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua or draw at HT 79.1% 79.7% — — 1.26
Qingdao West Coast or draw at HT 62.8% 61.0% — — 1.64
Shanghai Shenhua or Qingdao West Coast at HT 58.1% 57.5% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua or draw (1UP) 74.0% 79.7% — — 1.26
Qingdao West Coast or draw (1UP) 51.0% 58.5% — — 1.71
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua or draw in 2nd half 74.6% 74.0% — — 1.35
Shanghai Shenhua or Qingdao West Coast in 2nd half 65.5% 66.0% — — 1.52
Qingdao West Coast or draw in 2nd half 59.9% 58.2% — — 1.72
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 61.5% 61.3% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 38.5% 38.7% — — 2.58
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua (DNB) 65.4% 67.4% 62.3% 1.08× 1.48
Qingdao West Coast (DNB) 34.6% 32.6% 37.7% 0.86× 3.07
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua to score first 55.4% 62.3% — — 1.61
Qingdao West Coast to score first 38.3% 32.8% — — 3.05
No goal scored 6.3% 7.5% — — 13.27
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 56.2% 55.0% 63.0% 0.87× 1.82
Not both teams to score 43.8% 45.0% 37.0% 1.22× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 44.3% 41.6% 50.8% 0.82× 2.40
Not both score & under 2.5 34.3% 34.6% 28.1% 1.23× 2.89
Both score & under 2.5 11.8% 12.4% 12.5% 0.99× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 9.5% 8.3% 9.1% 0.91× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 83.9% 82.7% 78.5% 1.05× 1.21
Both teams to score 2+ 16.1% 17.3% 21.5% 0.81× 5.77
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 69.1% 67.3% — — 1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half 30.9% 32.7% — — 3.06
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 55.8% 60.0% — — 1.67
Both score 2nd half only 25.1% 26.8% — — 3.73
Both score 1st half only 13.2% 10.8% — — 9.29
Both score in both halves 5.9% 6.8% — — 14.81
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 80.9% 83.4% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 19.1% 16.6% — — 6.01
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 56.3% 56.9% — — 1.76
A half without a goal 43.8% 43.1% — — 2.32
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.3% 47.2% 41.3% 1.14× 2.12
4-6 goals 29.0% 26.6% 36.7% 0.72× 3.76
0-1 goals 22.1% 22.9% 18.4% 1.25× 4.36
7+ goals 2.6% 1.8% 4.1% 0.45× 54.30
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao West Coast to score exactly 1 36.4% 35.9% 33.8% 1.06× 2.78
Qingdao West Coast to score exactly 0 31.4% 33.8% 27.4% 1.23× 2.96
Qingdao West Coast to score exactly 2 21.1% 22.3% 22.4% 0.99× 4.49
Qingdao West Coast to score 3+ 11.2% 12.9% 16.8% 0.77× 7.76
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua to score exactly 1 31.4% 32.6% 34.5% 0.94× 3.07
Shanghai Shenhua to score exactly 2 26.3% 26.5% 26.1% 1.02× 3.77
Shanghai Shenhua to score 3+ 23.6% 23.3% 26.1% 0.89× 4.29
Shanghai Shenhua to score exactly 0 18.7% 18.8% 13.8% 1.36× 5.32
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 41.9% 42.5% — — 2.35
Shanghai Shenhua leading at HT 37.2% 39.0% — — 2.57
Qingdao West Coast leading at HT 20.9% 20.3% — — 4.92
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua -1: 2 51.0% 52.1% — — 1.92
Shanghai Shenhua -1: 1 26.4% 26.5% — — 3.77
Shanghai Shenhua -1: X 22.6% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao West Coast (0:1) 51.0% 51.3% 54.0% 0.95× 1.95
Shanghai Shenhua (0:1) 26.4% 27.0% 25.2% 1.07× 3.70
Draw (0:1) 22.6% 24.2% 21.1% 1.15× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao West Coast (0:2) 73.6% 75.7% 74.8% 1.01× 1.32
Draw (0:2) 15.1% 15.2% 14.7% 1.03× 6.57
Shanghai Shenhua (0:2) 11.3% 11.0% 10.7% 1.03× 9.10
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao West Coast (0:3) 88.7% 90.6% 89.3% 1.01× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 7.3% 5.8% 5.9% 0.98× 17.24
Shanghai Shenhua (0:3) 4.0% 2.4% 5.0% 0.48× 41.96
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao West Coast (0:4) 96.0% 98.1% 95.0% 1.03× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.8% 1.2% 3.9% 0.32× 81.59
Shanghai Shenhua (0:4) 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 0.90× 81.77
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua (1:0) 74.0% 72.5% 72.1% 1.01× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 15.5% 17.1% 16.3% 1.05× 5.85
Qingdao West Coast (1:0) 10.4% 12.7% 11.8% 1.08× 7.88
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua (2:0) 89.6% 88.5% 88.2% 1.00× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 7.2% 6.4% 7.0% 0.91× 15.66
Qingdao West Coast (2:0) 3.2% 2.3% 5.0% 0.46× 43.72
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.9% 48.7% — — 2.06
1st half highest scoring 27.1% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 25.0% 24.5% — — 4.08
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua to concede 68.6% 66.7% 72.6% 0.92× 1.50
Shanghai Shenhua clean sheet 31.4% 33.3% 27.4% 1.21× 3.00
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua clean sheet in 1st half 62.9% 63.2% — — 1.58
Shanghai Shenhua to concede in 1st half 37.1% 36.8% — — 2.72
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua to concede in 2nd half 50.1% 52.5% — — 1.91
Shanghai Shenhua clean sheet in 2nd half 49.9% 47.5% — — 2.10
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua over 2.5 corners 93.9% 89.2% — — 1.12
Shanghai Shenhua over 3.5 corners 86.9% 86.2% — — 1.16
Shanghai Shenhua over 4.5 corners 77.2% 76.5% — — 1.31
Shanghai Shenhua over 5.5 corners 65.6% 66.7% — — 1.50
Shanghai Shenhua over 6.5 corners 53.4% 52.6% — — 1.90
Shanghai Shenhua under 6.5 corners 46.6% 47.4% — — 2.11
Shanghai Shenhua under 5.5 corners 34.4% 33.3% — — 3.00
Shanghai Shenhua under 4.5 corners 22.8% 23.5% — — 4.26
Shanghai Shenhua under 3.5 corners 13.1% 13.8% — — 7.26
Shanghai Shenhua under 2.5 corners 6.1% 10.8% — — 9.29
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua under 3.5 goals 91.1% 92.2% 89.6% 1.03× 1.09
Shanghai Shenhua over 0.5 goals 81.3% 82.2% 86.2% 0.95× 1.22
Shanghai Shenhua under 2.5 goals 76.4% 77.8% 73.9% 1.05× 1.29
Shanghai Shenhua under 1.5 goals 50.1% 53.2% 48.1% 1.11× 1.88
Shanghai Shenhua over 1.5 goals 49.9% 46.8% 51.9% 0.90× 2.14
Shanghai Shenhua over 2.5 goals 23.6% 22.3% 26.1% 0.85× 4.49
Shanghai Shenhua under 0.5 goals 18.7% 17.8% 13.8% 1.29× 5.62
Shanghai Shenhua over 3.5 goals 8.9% 7.8% 10.4% 0.75× 12.82
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua under 1.5 in 1st half 83.7% 84.1% — — 1.19
Shanghai Shenhua over 0.5 in 1st half 51.3% 50.6% — — 1.98
Shanghai Shenhua under 0.5 in 1st half 48.7% 49.4% — — 2.03
Shanghai Shenhua over 1.5 in 1st half 16.3% 15.9% — — 6.31
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua scores more in 2nd half 39.6% 38.2% — — 2.62
Shanghai Shenhua scores equally in both 34.0% 33.3% — — 3.00
Shanghai Shenhua scores more in 1st half 26.4% 27.8% — — 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao West Coast (home no bet) 50.9% 51.4% 51.5% 1.00× 1.95
Draw (home no bet) 49.1% 48.6% 48.5% 1.00× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua even goals 51.8% 50.7% 48.1% 1.06× 1.97
Shanghai Shenhua odd goals 48.2% 49.3% 51.9% 0.95× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 30.7% 33.5% — — 2.99
HT 1-0 22.0% 24.3% — — 4.11
HT 0-1 14.1% 11.0% — — 9.08
HT 1-1 10.3% 11.0% — — 9.12
HT 2-0 7.9% 6.9% — — 14.53
Any other HT score 4.8% 2.4% — — 42.09
HT 2-1 3.7% 2.4% — — 42.16
HT 0-2 3.3% 2.4% — — 42.19
HT 1-2 2.4% 2.4% — — 42.25
HT 2-2 0.9% 2.4% — — 42.35
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua at HT / Shanghai Shenhua at FT 29.8% 27.5% — — 3.64
Draw at HT / Shanghai Shenhua at FT 16.5% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 14.9% 12.7% — — 7.88
Qingdao West Coast at HT / Qingdao West Coast at FT 13.5% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Qingdao West Coast at FT 10.4% 12.6% — — 7.91
Shanghai Shenhua at HT / Draw at FT 5.4% 6.0% — — 16.54
Qingdao West Coast at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.5% — — 28.85
Qingdao West Coast at HT / Shanghai Shenhua at FT 2.7% 3.5% — — 28.92
Shanghai Shenhua at HT / Qingdao West Coast at FT 2.0% 3.5% — — 28.95
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua to score last 55.4% 56.5% — — 1.77
Qingdao West Coast to score last 38.3% 38.7% — — 2.58
No goal scored 6.3% 7.5% — — 13.27
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.7% 92.6% — — 1.08
Shanghai Shenhua to lead by 1 at any time 64.3% 61.3% — — 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 48.8% 44.4% — — 2.25
Qingdao West Coast to lead by 1 at any time 44.4% 39.3% — — 2.55
Shanghai Shenhua to lead by 2 at any time 33.2% 29.8% — — 3.36
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 18.3% 14.8% — — 6.74
Qingdao West Coast to lead by 2 at any time 15.9% 14.8% — — 6.76
Shanghai Shenhua to lead by 3 at any time 13.8% 10.6% — — 9.41
Qingdao West Coast to lead by 3 at any time 4.6% 1.6% — — 60.86
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua most corners 75.0% 74.1% — — 1.35
Qingdao West Coast most corners 17.3% 19.3% — — 5.19
Corners level 7.7% 8.3% — — 11.99
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.9% 87.4% 84.8% 1.03× 1.14
1-4 goals 78.0% 78.7% 74.8% 1.05× 1.27
2-6 goals 75.3% 78.7% 77.8% 1.01× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.1% 72.3% 70.7% 1.02× 1.38
1-3 goals 62.2% 63.3% 55.3% 1.14× 1.58
2-4 goals 62.1% 63.3% 60.8% 1.04× 1.58
3-6 goals 51.3% 53.2% 55.8% 0.95× 1.88
3-5 goals 47.0% 48.4% 48.8% 0.99× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.3% 48.4% 41.3% 1.17× 2.06
1-2 goals 39.9% 39.2% 36.3% 1.08× 2.55
3-4 goals 38.1% 39.2% 38.8% 1.01× 2.55
4-6 goals 29.0% 30.2% 36.7% 0.82× 3.31
4-5 goals 24.7% 24.5% 29.7% 0.82× 4.09
5-6 goals 13.2% 14.8% 17.2% 0.86× 6.75
7+ goals 2.6% 2.6% 4.1% 0.63× 39.15
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua never behind 49.3% 56.9% — — 1.76
Qingdao West Coast never behind 29.4% 30.0% — — 3.34
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.0% 50.9% 46.3% 1.10× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.0% 49.1% 53.7% 0.91× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.8% 51.8% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 45.2% 48.3% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.1% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.9% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 93.7% 92.3% 95.7% 0.96× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 93.2% 92.3% 88.9% 1.04× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 84.3% 82.3% 78.9% 1.04× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 77.9% 77.3% 81.6% 0.95× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 68.5% 66.3% 59.4% 1.12× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 53.8% 52.5% 59.6% 0.88× 1.90
Under 2.5 goals 46.2% 47.5% 40.4% 1.18× 2.11
Over 3.5 goals 31.5% 33.7% 40.6% 0.83× 2.97
Under 1.5 goals 22.1% 22.7% 18.4% 1.24× 4.40
Over 4.5 goals 15.7% 17.7% 21.1% 0.84× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 6.8% 7.7% 11.1% 0.70× 12.94
Under 0.5 goals 6.3% 7.7% 4.3% 1.79× 12.94
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.3% 97.2% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 92.5% 92.4% 87.7% 1.05× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 81.3% 81.1% 73.8% 1.10× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 70.9% 72.3% 76.5% 0.95× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 59.4% 55.8% 49.9% 1.12× 1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 40.6% 44.2% 50.1% 0.88× 2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 29.1% 27.7% 23.5% 1.17× 3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 18.7% 18.9% 26.2% 0.72× 5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 7.5% 7.6% 12.3% 0.61× 13.19
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.7% 2.8% 4.4% 0.64× 35.60
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.3% 89.0% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 69.3% 68.6% — — 1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half 66.8% 68.5% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half 33.2% 31.5% — — 3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half 30.7% 31.4% — — 3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.7% 11.0% — — 9.13
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 80.6% 82.9% — — 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 77.1% 79.5% — — 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 50.8% 53.1% — — 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 49.2% 46.9% — — 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 22.9% 20.5% — — 4.88
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 19.4% 17.1% — — 5.85
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao West Coast not to score in both halves 81.4% 84.3% — — 1.19
Shanghai Shenhua not to score in both halves 68.4% 70.1% — — 1.43
Shanghai Shenhua to score in both halves 31.6% 29.9% — — 3.34
Qingdao West Coast to score in both halves 18.6% 15.7% — — 6.36
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 56.2% 58.5% 63.0% 0.93× 1.71
Only Shanghai Shenhua scores 25.1% 26.0% 23.4% 1.11× 3.84
Only Qingdao West Coast scores 12.4% 11.0% 9.8% 1.13× 9.06
Neither team scores 6.3% 7.1% 4.3% 1.66× 14.01
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.0% 22.6% 22.2% 1.02× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 22.6% 19.3% 1.17× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 15.8% 17.5% 14.3% 1.22× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 15.8% 17.5% 19.7% 0.88× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 8.9% 7.6% 10.2% 0.75× 13.13
6 or more goals 6.8% 7.6% 11.1% 0.69× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 6.3% 7.6% 4.3% 1.77× 13.14
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.1% 37.2% — — 2.69
No goals in 1st half 30.7% 35.7% — — 2.80
2 goals in 1st half 21.5% 21.4% — — 4.68
3+ goals in 1st half 11.7% 10.9% — — 9.21
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 49.2% 44.9% — — 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 31.4% 33.9% — — 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 19.4% 16.8% — — 5.95
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao West Coast not to win both halves 94.6% 94.2% — — 1.06
Shanghai Shenhua not to win both halves 85.0% 87.9% — — 1.14
Shanghai Shenhua to win both halves 15.0% 12.1% — — 8.24
Qingdao West Coast to win both halves 5.4% 5.8% — — 17.27
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shanghai Shenhua to win either half 62.3% 65.0% — — 1.54
Qingdao West Coast to win neither half 59.0% 59.1% — — 1.69
Qingdao West Coast to win either half 41.0% 40.9% — — 2.44
Shanghai Shenhua to win neither half 37.7% 35.0% — — 2.85
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao West Coast not to win to nil 87.6% 88.1% 90.2% 0.98× 1.14
Shanghai Shenhua not to win to nil 74.9% 75.3% 76.6% 0.98× 1.33
Shanghai Shenhua to win to nil 25.1% 24.7% 23.4% 1.06× 4.05
Qingdao West Coast to win to nil 12.4% 11.9% 9.8% 1.22× 8.42
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 25.0% 27.9% 26.3% 1.06× 3.59
Shanghai Shenhua by 1 22.6% 24.1% 21.1% 1.14× 4.15
Qingdao West Coast by 1 15.5% 17.0% 16.3% 1.04× 5.87
Shanghai Shenhua by 2 15.1% 17.0% 14.7% 1.16× 5.87
Shanghai Shenhua by 3+ 11.3% 11.8% 10.7% 1.10× 8.51
Qingdao West Coast by 2 7.2% 7.2% 7.0% 1.02× 13.91
Qingdao West Coast by 3+ 3.2% 2.7% 5.0% 0.54× 36.87
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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