Sheffield United v Burnley — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 20 April 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 16
On target
11 – 9
Shots in box
14 – 14
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.24 – 0.22
Goals − xG
-0.98 – +1.57
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sheffield United win
42.2%
Draw
26.2%
Burnley win
31.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sheffield United are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 9.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLDLLLLLLL last 10
scored 11
from 13.8 xG
conceded 30
from 21.1 xG
Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLLLLLDLD last 10
scored 6
from 10.4 xG
conceded 19
from 20.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.42–1.19 | 1-1 12% | 48% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sheffield United 1.98 xGBurnley 2.43 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sheffield United attacking right
Burnley attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Sheffield United |
Oliver McBurnie | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | James McAtee |
| 15' |
Sheffield United |
Ben Brereton Díaz | 0.19 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 15' |
Sheffield United |
James McAtee | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Anel Ahmedhodzic |
| 17' |
Sheffield United |
Ben Brereton Díaz | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 17' |
Sheffield United |
Vinicius Souza | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | James McAtee |
| 19' |
 Burnley |
Lyle Foster | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vitinho |
| 19' |
Burnley |
Vitinho | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
Burnley |
Vitinho | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jacob Bruun Larsen |
| 23' |
Burnley |
Jacob Bruun Larsen | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sander Berge |
| 25' |
Sheffield United |
Auston Trusty | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | James McAtee |
| 29' |
Burnley |
Lyle Foster | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Lorenz Assignon |
| 32' |
Sheffield United |
Oliver McBurnie | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gustavo Hamer |
| 36' |
Sheffield United |
Gustavo Hamer | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ben Brereton Díaz |
| 37' |
Burnley |
Jacob Bruun Larsen | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 37' |
Burnley |
Wilson Odobert | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maxime Estève |
| 39' |
Burnley |
Lorenz Assignon | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Vitinho |
| 44' |
Burnley |
Lyle Foster | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Josh Cullen |
| 48' |
Sheffield United |
James McAtee | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gustavo Hamer |
| 50' |
Burnley |
Lorenz Assignon | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Charlie Taylor |
| 51' |
Sheffield United |
Gustavo Hamer | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | James McAtee |
| 54' |
Sheffield United |
Ben Brereton Díaz | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 57' |
Burnley |
Lyle Foster | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lorenz Assignon |
| 59' |
Sheffield United |
Vinicius Souza | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | James McAtee |
| 60' |
Sheffield United |
Ben Brereton Díaz | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ben Osborn |
| 62' |
Sheffield United |
Oliver McBurnie | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gustavo Hamer |
| 66' |
Burnley |
Vitinho | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Wilson Odobert |
| 68' |
Sheffield United |
Oliver McBurnie | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cameron Archer |
| 70' |
Burnley |
Johann Berg Gudmundsson | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Josh Cullen |
| 72' |
Burnley |
Josh Brownhill | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Burnley |
Johann Berg Gudmundsson | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Charlie Taylor |
| 89' |
Sheffield United |
Jayden Bogle | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anel Ahmedhodzic |
| 90' |
Sheffield United |
Jayden Bogle | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oliver Arblaster |
| 92' |
Burnley |
Johann Berg Gudmundsson | 0.57 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 93' |
Sheffield United |
James McAtee | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Burnley
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenz Assignon DR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Sander Berge MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.93 |
| Maxime Estève DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.29 |
| Josh Cullen MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1.25 |
| Dara O'Shea DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Charlie Taylor DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| Wilson Odobert FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 1.31 |
| Lyle Foster FW | 86 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 1.15 |
| Vitinho MR | 72 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.25 | 0.76 |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen ML | 61 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.03 | 1.29 |
| Josh Brownhill Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Johann Berg Gudmundsson Sub | 18 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.78 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| David Datro Fofana Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zeki Amdouni Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sheffield United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Brereton Díaz AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.03 | 0.93 |
| Jayden Bogle DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| James McAtee AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0.14 | 0.78 | 1.03 |
| Auston Trusty DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oliver Arblaster DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Ivo Grbic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Ben Osborn DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.45 |
| Anel Ahmedhodzic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| Oliver McBurnie FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Gustavo Hamer AMC | 80 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.28 | 0.80 |
| Vinicius Souza DMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Cameron Archer Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Oliver Norwood Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andre Brooks Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |