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Sheffield United v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Sheffield United win
42.5%
model 40.8%
Draw
21.5%
model 23.4%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
35.9%
model 35.7%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (555 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 9.3%
  2. 2-1 8.0%
  3. 1-2 7.5%
  4. 2-2 7.2%
  5. 3-1 5.2%

Goals

Over 2.572.0% Under 2.528.0%
BTTS yes72.4% BTTS no27.6%
Sheffield United 1+85.5% Sheffield United 2+57.5%
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1+83.5% Wolverhampton Wanderers 2+53.8%

Expected goals 1.93 – 1.80. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
51/100
Data quality
90/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Over 3.5 goals
Over/Under · usually 24%
53.5% fair odds 1.87
strong signal · 1225 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Sheffield United (2:0)
Handicap 2:0 · usually 88%
83.9% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 379 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Sheffield United carry the stronger rating, 1479 Elo against 1417.
  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Sheffield United have an estimated 42.5% win probability, against 35.9% for Wolverhampton Wanderers and 21.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.93 for Sheffield United and 1.80 for Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Why Sheffield United

Sheffield United carry the stronger rating, 1479 Elo against 1417. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.5%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.93 to 1.80. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Wolverhampton Wanderers can win

Nothing in the data singles out Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Key players

Sheffield United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ben Brereton Díaz (0.40), Oliver McBurnie (0.30), Cameron Archer (0.28). Wolverhampton Wanderers's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Adam Armstrong (0.34), Tolu Arokodare (0.24), Mateus Mané (0.19).

Availability

1 of Sheffield United's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of Wolverhampton Wanderers's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Sheffield United: 42% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.36 xG a match from set pieces. Wolverhampton Wanderers: 50% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.54 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Sheffield United are the model's most likely outcome at 42.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 9.3%. Confidence 51/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Sheffield United are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 9.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

DLDLLLLLLL last 10 scored 11 from 13.8 xG conceded 30 from 21.1 xG

Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWDLLLDLDD last 10 scored 9 from 12.7 xG conceded 17 from 19.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.93–1.80 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.30–2.04 2-2 7% 81% 79%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to win 40.8% 43.8% 43.5% 1.01× 2.29
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win 35.7% 37.0% 29.0% 1.27× 2.71
Draw 23.4% 22.2% 27.6% 0.80× 4.51
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United & both teams score 27.7% 26.4% 20.2% 1.31× 3.79
Wolverhampton Wanderers & both teams score 24.6% 22.6% 13.8% 1.64× 4.42
Draw & both teams score 20.1% 22.6% 20.4% 1.11× 4.43
Sheffield United & not both score 13.1% 12.2% 23.4% 0.52× 8.22
Wolverhampton Wanderers & not both score 11.1% 12.1% 15.3% 0.79× 8.24
Draw & not both score 3.4% 3.7% 7.3% 0.50× 27.39
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United & over 1.5 37.2% 37.5% 32.5% 1.16× 2.67
Sheffield United & over 2.5 32.7% 33.2% 26.4% 1.26× 3.02
Wolverhampton Wanderers & over 1.5 32.4% 33.2% 21.4% 1.55× 3.02
Wolverhampton Wanderers & over 2.5 28.5% 25.5% 16.2% 1.58× 3.92
Sheffield United & over 3.5 21.8% 21.5% 11.1% 1.94× 4.65
Draw & over 1.5 20.1% 21.5% 20.4% 1.06× 4.65
Sheffield United & under 3.5 19.0% 17.6% 32.5% 0.54× 5.69
Wolverhampton Wanderers & over 3.5 18.7% 17.6% 6.8% 2.59× 5.69
Wolverhampton Wanderers & under 3.5 17.1% 17.6% 22.3% 0.79× 5.69
Draw & under 2.5 12.7% 12.7% 21.6% 0.59× 7.86
Draw & under 3.5 12.7% 12.7% 21.6% 0.59× 7.86
Draw & over 2.5 10.7% 12.7% 6.0% 2.11× 7.87
Draw & over 3.5 10.7% 12.7% 6.0% 2.11× 7.87
Sheffield United & under 2.5 8.1% 7.5% 17.2% 0.43× 13.41
Wolverhampton Wanderers & under 2.5 7.2% 7.5% 13.0% 0.57× 13.41
Sheffield United & under 1.5 3.6% 4.6% 11.1% 0.41× 21.95
Draw & under 1.5 3.4% 4.6% 7.3% 0.62× 21.96
Wolverhampton Wanderers & under 1.5 3.3% 4.6% 7.7% 0.59× 21.96
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (1UP) 61.7% 63.9% 1.57
Wolverhampton Wanderers (1UP) 57.6% 62.3% 1.61
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (2UP) 40.8% 46.5% 2.15
Wolverhampton Wanderers (2UP) 35.7% 40.4% 2.48
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to win 2nd half 35.5% 37.4% 2.67
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win 2nd half 34.5% 33.8% 2.96
2nd half drawn 30.0% 27.6% 3.63
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (+2.5) 89.6% 89.1% 91.9% 0.97× 1.12
Wolverhampton Wanderers (+1.5) 77.1% 78.6% 80.7% 0.97× 1.27
Sheffield United (+0.5) 64.3% 64.1% 71.0% 0.90× 1.56
Wolverhampton Wanderers (+0.5) 59.2% 57.2% 56.5% 1.01× 1.75
Sheffield United (-0.5) 40.8% 42.8% 43.5% 0.98× 2.34
Wolverhampton Wanderers (-0.5) 35.7% 35.9% 29.0% 1.24× 2.79
Sheffield United (-1.5) 22.9% 21.4% 19.3% 1.11× 4.66
Sheffield United (-2.5) 10.4% 10.9% 8.1% 1.36× 9.14
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to concede 85.5% 89.6% 77.5% 1.16× 1.12
Wolverhampton Wanderers clean sheet 14.5% 10.4% 22.5% 0.46× 9.63
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to concede in 1st half 56.4% 60.2% 1.66
Wolverhampton Wanderers clean sheet in 1st half 43.6% 39.8% 2.51
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 6.5 corners 90.6% 90.0% 1.11
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 5.5 corners 84.0% 81.4% 1.23
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 4.5 corners 74.0% 71.6% 1.40
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 3.5 corners 60.0% 61.8% 1.62
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 2.5 corners 57.6% 57.1% 1.75
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 2.5 corners 42.4% 42.9% 2.33
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 3.5 corners 40.0% 38.2% 2.62
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 4.5 corners 26.0% 28.4% 3.52
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 5.5 corners 16.0% 18.6% 5.37
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 6.5 corners 9.4% 10.0% 9.97
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 3.5 goals 89.1% 89.0% 97.8% 0.91× 1.12
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 0.5 goals 83.5% 82.3% 69.4% 1.19× 1.22
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 2.5 goals 73.0% 72.0% 90.6% 0.79× 1.39
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 1.5 goals 53.8% 52.0% 30.1% 1.73× 1.92
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 1.5 goals 46.2% 48.0% 69.9% 0.69× 2.08
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 2.5 goals 27.0% 28.0% 9.5% 2.97× 3.57
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 0.5 goals 16.5% 17.7% 30.6% 0.58× 5.64
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 3.5 goals 10.9% 11.0% 2.2% 4.92× 9.09
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 1.5 in 1st half 83.7% 81.2% 1.23
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 0.5 in 1st half 51.4% 50.8% 1.97
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 0.5 in 1st half 48.6% 49.2% 2.03
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 1.5 in 1st half 16.3% 18.8% 5.33
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (away no bet) 63.6% 59.1% 61.2% 0.97× 1.69
Draw (away no bet) 36.5% 40.9% 38.8% 1.05× 2.45
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers even goals 51.4% 52.4% 52.6% 1.00× 1.91
Wolverhampton Wanderers odd goals 48.6% 47.6% 47.4% 1.00× 2.10
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 70.6% 73.5% 1.36
Both halves over 1.5 goals 29.4% 26.5% 3.77
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 81.1% 83.3% 1.20
Both halves under 1.5 goals 18.9% 16.7% 5.97
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 71.5% 71.3% 1.40
Sheffield United to score 2+ in a row 44.8% 45.2% 2.21
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score 2+ in a row 40.7% 44.9% 2.23
Either team to score 3+ in a row 31.1% 33.8% 2.96
Sheffield United to score 3+ in a row 17.5% 17.8% 5.61
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score 3+ in a row 14.7% 12.2% 8.17
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United corners (+3.5) 92.7% 89.5% 1.12
Sheffield United corners (+2.5) 88.2% 84.5% 1.18
Sheffield United corners (+1.5) 81.8% 79.8% 1.25
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (+3.5) 68.2% 65.8% 1.52
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (+2.5) 58.5% 57.1% 1.75
Sheffield United corners (-1.5) 52.2% 52.5% 1.91
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (+1.5) 47.8% 47.5% 2.10
Sheffield United corners (-2.5) 41.5% 42.9% 2.33
Sheffield United corners (-3.5) 31.8% 34.2% 2.93
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (-1.5) 18.2% 20.2% 4.95
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (-2.5) 11.8% 15.5% 6.45
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (-3.5) 7.3% 10.5% 9.57
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 54.7% 45.4% 2.20
9-11 corners 24.5% 25.6% 3.90
12+ corners 20.8% 25.6% 3.91
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 84.7% 80.7% 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 79.2% 76.5% 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 72.4% 72.6% 1.38
Under 9.5 corners 64.1% 63.3% 1.58
Over 7.5 corners 55.6% 57.9% 1.73
Under 8.5 corners 54.7% 53.2% 1.88
Over 8.5 corners 45.3% 46.8% 2.14
Under 7.5 corners 44.4% 42.1% 2.37
Over 9.5 corners 35.9% 36.7% 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 27.6% 27.4% 3.65
Over 11.5 corners 20.8% 23.5% 4.26
Over 12.5 corners 15.3% 19.3% 5.18
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 9.3% 7.3% 14.4% 0.50× 13.74
2-1 8.0% 7.3% 11.4% 0.64× 13.74
Any other score 8.1% 7.3% 2.9% 2.49× 13.74
1-2 7.5% 7.3% 7.9% 0.92× 13.75
2-2 7.2% 7.3% 5.2% 1.39× 13.75
3-1 5.2% 7.3% 4.3% 1.69× 13.76
0-2 3.9% 1.8% 5.3% 0.34× 55.41
1-3 4.5% 1.8% 3.1% 0.58× 55.40
2-0 4.5% 1.8% 6.2% 0.29× 55.40
2-3 4.4% 1.8% 1.6% 1.11× 55.40
3-2 4.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.00× 55.39
0-0 3.4% 1.8% 7.3% 0.25× 55.42
0-1 3.3% 1.8% 7.7% 0.23× 55.43
1-0 3.6% 1.8% 11.1% 0.16× 55.42
3-0 2.9% 1.8% 4.0% 0.45× 55.44
3-3 2.8% 1.8% 0.9% 2.10× 55.44
4-1 2.5% 1.8% 0.9% 2.10× 55.45
0-3 2.3% 1.8% 1.6% 1.10× 55.45
1-4 2.0% 1.8% 0.6% 3.00× 55.46
2-4 2.0% 1.8% 0.3% 7.00× 55.46
3-4 1.3% 1.8% 0.3% 6.99× 55.48
4-0 1.4% 1.8% 1.7% 1.05× 55.47
4-2 2.3% 1.8% 0.8% 2.33× 55.45
4-3 1.4% 1.8% 0.2% 10.49× 55.47
0-4 1.1% 1.8% 0.4% 4.20× 55.48
4-4 0.6% 1.8% 0.1% 20.98× 55.49
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United leading at HT (DNB) 55.0% 55.5% 1.80
Wolverhampton Wanderers leading at HT (DNB) 45.0% 44.5% 2.25
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United or Wolverhampton Wanderers (12) 76.6% 77.8% 72.4% 1.07× 1.29
Sheffield United or draw (1X) 64.3% 63.0% 71.0% 0.89× 1.59
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw (X2) 59.2% 56.2% 56.5% 1.00× 1.78
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United or draw at HT 71.3% 71.4% 1.40
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw at HT 65.0% 63.3% 1.58
Sheffield United or Wolverhampton Wanderers at HT 63.7% 63.2% 1.58
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United or draw (1UP) 64.3% 67.8% 1.48
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw (1UP) 59.2% 64.0% 1.56
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United or Wolverhampton Wanderers in 2nd half 70.1% 72.4% 1.38
Sheffield United or draw in 2nd half 65.5% 66.2% 1.51
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw in 2nd half 64.5% 62.6% 1.60
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 54.2% 52.2% 1.92
Neither half drawn 45.8% 47.8% 2.09
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (DNB) 53.3% 52.7% 60.0% 0.88× 1.90
Wolverhampton Wanderers (DNB) 46.7% 47.3% 40.0% 1.18× 2.11
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to score first 50.0% 46.3% 2.16
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score first 46.7% 46.1% 2.17
No goal scored 3.4% 4.0% 25.11
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 72.4% 74.5% 54.2% 1.37× 1.34
Not both teams to score 27.6% 25.5% 45.8% 0.56× 3.92
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 63.1% 59.8% 39.9% 1.50× 1.67
Not both score & under 2.5 18.7% 18.0% 37.3% 0.48× 5.55
Both score & under 2.5 9.3% 8.7% 14.4% 0.61× 11.44
Not both score & over 2.5 8.9% 8.7% 8.6% 1.02× 11.45
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 69.1% 70.1% 89.0% 0.79× 1.43
Both teams to score 2+ 30.9% 29.9% 11.0% 2.72× 3.34
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 55.6% 59.2% 1.69
Both teams to score in 2nd half 44.4% 40.8% 2.45
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 39.2% 40.2% 2.49
Both score 2nd half only 31.7% 30.1% 3.32
Both score 1st half only 16.4% 18.1% 5.52
Both score in both halves 12.8% 11.6% 8.64
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 70.9% 73.4% 1.36
Both teams to score by HT 29.1% 26.6% 3.76
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 70.4% 71.1% 1.41
A half without a goal 29.6% 28.9% 3.46
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
4-6 goals 42.8% 43.2% 22.4% 1.93× 2.32
2-3 goals 38.4% 35.5% 50.4% 0.70× 2.82
0-1 goals 10.3% 16.5% 25.9% 0.64× 6.06
7+ goals 8.5% 5.7% 1.4% 4.16× 17.49
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score exactly 1 29.7% 27.1% 39.4% 0.69× 3.68
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score 3+ 27.0% 27.1% 9.5% 2.86× 3.69
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score exactly 2 26.8% 27.1% 20.7% 1.31× 3.70
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score exactly 0 16.5% 18.3% 30.6% 0.60× 5.46
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to score 3+ 30.5% 30.5% 16.2% 1.89× 3.28
Sheffield United to score exactly 1 28.0% 27.1% 36.9% 0.73× 3.69
Sheffield United to score exactly 2 27.0% 27.1% 24.6% 1.10× 3.70
Sheffield United to score exactly 0 14.5% 13.5% 22.5% 0.60× 7.39
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 36.3% 36.8% 2.72
Sheffield United leading at HT 35.0% 36.7% 2.72
Wolverhampton Wanderers leading at HT 28.7% 28.6% 3.50
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United -1: 2 59.2% 56.2% 1.78
Sheffield United -1: 1 22.9% 23.9% 4.18
Sheffield United -1: X 18.0% 18.9% 5.28
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (0:1) 59.2% 55.6% 56.5% 0.98× 1.80
Sheffield United (0:1) 22.9% 24.4% 19.3% 1.26× 4.10
Draw (0:1) 18.0% 18.3% 24.2% 0.76× 5.46
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (0:2) 77.1% 77.5% 80.7% 0.96× 1.29
Draw (0:2) 12.5% 11.7% 11.3% 1.03× 8.52
Sheffield United (0:2) 10.4% 11.7% 8.1% 1.45× 8.57
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (0:3) 89.6% 88.5% 91.9% 0.96× 1.13
Draw (0:3) 6.4% 6.9% 4.8% 1.43× 14.51
Sheffield United (0:3) 4.0% 2.3% 3.4% 0.70× 42.73
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (0:4) 96.0% 98.0% 96.6% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.7% 1.3% 2.4% 0.52× 79.97
Sheffield United (0:4) 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% 1.20× 80.68
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (1:0) 64.3% 65.5% 71.0% 0.92× 1.53
Wolverhampton Wanderers (1:0) 19.0% 16.4% 11.9% 1.38× 6.10
Draw (1:0) 16.7% 16.3% 17.3% 0.95× 6.12
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (2:0) 81.0% 83.9% 88.1% 0.95× 1.19
Draw (2:0) 10.9% 12.0% 8.7% 1.39× 8.31
Wolverhampton Wanderers (2:0) 8.2% 6.6% 3.3% 2.03× 15.10
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 51.3% 50.6% 1.98
1st half highest scoring 26.7% 26.1% 3.83
Halves equal 22.0% 23.1% 4.32
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to concede 83.5% 84.9% 69.4% 1.22× 1.18
Sheffield United clean sheet 16.5% 15.1% 30.6% 0.49× 6.61
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to concede in 1st half 51.4% 50.8% 1.97
Sheffield United clean sheet in 1st half 48.6% 49.2% 2.03
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United over 2.5 corners 79.3% 76.6% 1.31
Sheffield United under 6.5 corners 70.3% 71.8% 1.39
Sheffield United over 3.5 corners 66.1% 66.7% 1.50
Sheffield United under 5.5 corners 59.8% 57.6% 1.74
Sheffield United over 4.5 corners 52.6% 52.6% 1.90
Sheffield United under 4.5 corners 47.4% 47.4% 2.11
Sheffield United over 5.5 corners 40.2% 42.4% 2.36
Sheffield United under 3.5 corners 33.9% 33.3% 3.01
Sheffield United over 6.5 corners 29.7% 28.2% 3.55
Sheffield United under 2.5 corners 20.7% 23.4% 4.27
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United under 3.5 goals 87.0% 87.8% 94.8% 0.93× 1.14
Sheffield United over 0.5 goals 85.5% 87.7% 77.5% 1.13× 1.14
Sheffield United under 2.5 goals 69.5% 68.9% 83.8% 0.82× 1.45
Sheffield United over 1.5 goals 57.5% 55.7% 40.6% 1.37× 1.80
Sheffield United under 1.5 goals 42.5% 44.3% 59.4% 0.75× 2.26
Sheffield United over 2.5 goals 30.5% 31.1% 16.2% 1.93× 3.21
Sheffield United under 0.5 goals 14.5% 12.3% 22.5% 0.54× 8.16
Sheffield United over 3.5 goals 13.0% 12.2% 5.2% 2.37× 8.19
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United under 1.5 in 1st half 79.8% 79.5% 1.26
Sheffield United over 0.5 in 1st half 56.4% 60.0% 1.67
Sheffield United under 0.5 in 1st half 43.6% 40.0% 2.50
Sheffield United over 1.5 in 1st half 20.2% 20.5% 4.87
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (home no bet) 60.4% 61.2% 51.3% 1.19× 1.64
Draw (home no bet) 39.6% 38.8% 48.7% 0.80× 2.58
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United even goals 51.1% 50.2% 50.5% 0.99× 1.99
Sheffield United odd goals 48.9% 49.8% 49.5% 1.01× 2.01
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 21.4% 22.6% 4.42
HT 1-0 17.4% 18.9% 5.29
HT 0-1 15.1% 18.9% 5.31
HT 1-1 12.9% 11.2% 8.93
Any other HT score 8.7% 7.7% 12.98
HT 2-0 7.3% 7.7% 13.00
HT 0-2 5.5% 7.7% 13.03
HT 2-1 5.3% 7.7% 13.03
HT 1-2 4.6% 2.5% 39.74
HT 2-2 1.9% 2.5% 39.89
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United at HT / Sheffield United at FT 25.3% 27.0% 3.70
Wolverhampton Wanderers at HT / Wolverhampton Wanderers at FT 20.2% 21.4% 4.68
Draw at HT / Sheffield United at FT 12.3% 12.0% 8.36
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 12.0% 12.0% 8.36
Draw at HT / Wolverhampton Wanderers at FT 11.9% 12.0% 8.36
Sheffield United at HT / Draw at FT 6.1% 6.6% 15.25
Wolverhampton Wanderers at HT / Draw at FT 5.3% 6.6% 15.27
Sheffield United at HT / Wolverhampton Wanderers at FT 3.6% 3.4% 29.36
Wolverhampton Wanderers at HT / Sheffield United at FT 3.2% 3.4% 29.38
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to score last 50.0% 49.2% 2.03
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score last 46.6% 49.0% 2.04
No goal scored 3.4% 4.0% 25.11
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 96.6% 96.0% 1.04
Sheffield United to lead by 1 at any time 61.7% 64.3% 1.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 59.6% 59.7% 1.68
Wolverhampton Wanderers to lead by 1 at any time 57.6% 59.6% 1.68
Sheffield United to lead by 2 at any time 32.3% 32.1% 3.12
Wolverhampton Wanderers to lead by 2 at any time 28.1% 26.0% 3.85
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 25.4% 25.9% 3.86
Sheffield United to lead by 3 at any time 14.0% 11.4% 8.81
Wolverhampton Wanderers to lead by 3 at any time 11.4% 11.3% 8.84
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United most corners 63.2% 60.5% 1.65
Wolverhampton Wanderers most corners 26.7% 31.1% 3.22
Corners level 10.1% 10.4% 9.60
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-6 goals 81.2% 81.5% 72.8% 1.12× 1.23
1-5 goals 79.2% 78.9% 88.8% 0.89× 1.27
2-5 goals 72.2% 73.6% 70.2% 1.05× 1.36
1-4 goals 64.7% 62.3% 83.4% 0.75× 1.61
3-6 goals 63.6% 62.3% 47.1% 1.32× 1.61
2-4 goals 57.8% 58.8% 64.8% 0.91× 1.70
3-5 goals 54.6% 52.4% 44.5% 1.18× 1.91
1-3 goals 45.4% 48.0% 69.1% 0.69× 2.08
4-6 goals 42.8% 43.6% 22.4% 1.95× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.1% 43.6% 39.1% 1.12× 2.29
2-3 goals 38.4% 38.9% 50.4% 0.77× 2.57
4-5 goals 33.8% 34.1% 19.8% 1.72× 2.93
1-2 goals 24.6% 24.8% 44.4% 0.56× 4.04
5-6 goals 23.5% 24.7% 8.1% 3.06× 4.04
7+ goals 8.5% 8.8% 1.4% 6.43× 11.32
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United never behind 39.0% 45.5% 2.20
Wolverhampton Wanderers never behind 34.9% 36.3% 2.75
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.0% 50.1% 49.4% 1.01× 2.00
Even number of goals 52.0% 49.9% 50.6% 0.99× 2.01
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 52.6% 51.9% 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 47.4% 48.1% 2.08
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.3% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.7% 48.3% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 96.6% 95.6% 92.7% 1.03× 1.05
Over 1.5 goals 89.7% 88.8% 74.1% 1.20× 1.13
Under 5.5 goals 82.6% 81.0% 96.0% 0.84× 1.24
Over 2.5 goals 72.0% 72.4% 48.4% 1.50× 1.38
Under 4.5 goals 68.1% 65.5% 90.6% 0.72× 1.53
Over 3.5 goals 51.3% 53.5% 23.7% 2.26× 1.87
Under 3.5 goals 48.7% 46.5% 76.3% 0.61× 2.15
Over 4.5 goals 31.9% 34.5% 9.4% 3.68× 2.90
Under 2.5 goals 28.0% 27.6% 51.6% 0.53× 3.62
Over 5.5 goals 17.4% 19.0% 4.0% 4.82× 5.26
Under 1.5 goals 10.3% 11.2% 25.9% 0.43× 8.93
Under 0.5 goals 3.4% 4.4% 7.3% 0.60× 22.92
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 90.7% 92.7% 98.6% 0.94× 1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 87.4% 88.1% 65.1% 1.35× 1.14
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 79.6% 76.6% 95.8% 0.80× 1.31
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 64.7% 62.5% 31.5% 1.99× 1.60
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 60.4% 62.3% 89.1% 0.70× 1.61
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 39.6% 37.7% 10.9% 3.45× 2.65
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 35.3% 37.5% 68.5% 0.55× 2.67
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 20.4% 23.4% 4.2% 5.60× 4.27
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 12.6% 11.9% 34.9% 0.34× 8.40
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 9.3% 7.3% 1.4% 5.19× 13.67
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 79.6% 78.2% 1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half 78.6% 78.1% 1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half 53.9% 57.9% 1.73
Over 1.5 in 1st half 46.1% 42.1% 2.38
Under 0.5 in 1st half 21.4% 21.9% 4.57
Over 2.5 in 1st half 20.4% 21.8% 4.59
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 88.4% 85.9% 1.16
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 64.4% 61.1% 1.64
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 62.8% 61.0% 1.64
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 37.2% 39.0% 2.56
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 35.6% 38.9% 2.57
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 11.6% 14.1% 7.11
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers not to score in both halves 66.0% 66.9% 1.50
Sheffield United not to score in both halves 62.4% 62.5% 1.60
Sheffield United to score in both halves 37.6% 37.5% 2.67
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score in both halves 34.0% 33.1% 3.02
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 72.4% 74.5% 54.2% 1.37× 1.34
Only Sheffield United scores 13.1% 10.8% 23.4% 0.46× 9.24
Only Wolverhampton Wanderers scores 11.1% 10.8% 15.3% 0.70× 9.28
Neither team scores 3.4% 3.9% 7.3% 0.53× 25.83
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 20.7% 21.5% 24.7% 0.87× 4.64
Exactly 4 goals 19.4% 18.6% 14.4% 1.29× 5.38
Exactly 2 goals 17.6% 18.6% 25.8% 0.72× 5.39
6 or more goals 17.4% 18.6% 4.0% 4.70× 5.39
Exactly 5 goals 14.5% 12.4% 5.5% 2.25× 8.07
Exactly 1 goals 7.0% 7.6% 18.7% 0.41× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 3.4% 4.4% 7.3% 0.60× 22.95
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 64.4% 61.2% 1.63
1 goal in 2nd half 24.0% 18.6% 5.38
No goals in 2nd half 11.6% 12.7% 7.88
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers not to win both halves 89.9% 87.7% 1.14
Sheffield United not to win both halves 87.4% 87.5% 1.14
Sheffield United to win both halves 12.6% 12.5% 8.03
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win both halves 10.1% 12.4% 8.10
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to win either half 57.9% 59.5% 1.68
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win either half 53.2% 54.0% 1.85
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win neither half 46.8% 46.0% 2.17
Sheffield United to win neither half 42.1% 40.5% 2.47
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers not to win to nil 88.9% 88.3% 84.7% 1.04× 1.13
Sheffield United not to win to nil 86.9% 88.3% 76.6% 1.15× 1.13
Sheffield United to win to nil 13.1% 11.7% 23.4% 0.50× 8.51
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win to nil 11.1% 11.7% 15.3% 0.76× 8.56
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 23.4% 23.8% 27.6% 0.86× 4.21
Sheffield United by 1 18.0% 17.0% 24.2% 0.70× 5.89
Wolverhampton Wanderers by 1 16.7% 17.0% 17.3% 0.98× 5.89
Sheffield United by 2 12.5% 11.9% 11.3% 1.05× 8.44
Wolverhampton Wanderers by 2 10.9% 11.8% 8.7% 1.36× 8.45
Sheffield United by 3+ 10.4% 11.8% 8.1% 1.47× 8.45
Wolverhampton Wanderers by 3+ 8.2% 7.1% 3.3% 2.17× 14.09
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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