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Sheffield United v Wrexham — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 30 October 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Sheffield United win
43.2%
model 41.2%
Draw
27.3%
model 26.4%
Wrexham win
29.5%
model 32.4%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.1%
  2. 2-1 8.9%
  3. 1-2 7.8%
  4. 2-2 6.4%
  5. 1-0 6.2%

Goals

Over 2.559.5% Under 2.540.5%
BTTS yes62.8% BTTS no37.2%
Sheffield United 1+80.7% Sheffield United 2+48.9%
Wrexham 1+76.3% Wrexham 2+42.2%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.44. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
48/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
3-6 goals
Multi goal · usually 47%
58.4% fair odds 1.71
strong signal · 2005 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Sheffield United not to win to nil
Win to nil · usually 77%
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Sheffield United have an estimated 43.2% win probability, against 29.5% for Wrexham and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.64 for Sheffield United and 1.44 for Wrexham.

Why Sheffield United

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.64 to 1.44. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Wrexham can win

Nothing in the data singles out Wrexham.

Key players

Sheffield United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ben Brereton Díaz (0.39), Oliver McBurnie (0.30), Cameron Archer (0.28).

Availability

1 of Sheffield United's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Wrexham, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Sheffield United: 40% possession, 8.2 shots a match, 16.8 faced, 0.36 xG a match from set pieces. Wrexham: 56% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Sheffield United are the model's most likely outcome at 43.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.1%. Confidence 48/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Sheffield United are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 9.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

DLDLLLLLLL last 10 scored 11 from 13.8 xG conceded 30 from 21.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.64–1.44 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.86–1.57 1-1 11% 67% 68%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to win 43.7% 42.9% 43.4% 0.99× 2.33
Wrexham to win 31.7% 30.4% 29.1% 1.05× 3.29
Draw 24.6% 24.5% 27.6% 0.89× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United & both teams score 27.3% 25.2% 20.2% 1.25× 3.97
Wrexham & both teams score 20.5% 21.8% 13.9% 1.56× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 20.2% 21.8% 20.4% 1.07× 4.59
Sheffield United & not both score 16.4% 18.0% 23.3% 0.77× 5.57
Wrexham & not both score 11.2% 13.3% 15.2% 0.87× 7.54
Draw & not both score 4.4% 4.9% 7.3% 0.67× 20.49
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United & over 1.5 38.8% 34.9% 32.5% 1.08× 2.87
Sheffield United & over 2.5 33.2% 30.8% 26.4% 1.16× 3.25
Wrexham & over 1.5 27.8% 26.1% 21.4% 1.22× 3.84
Wrexham & over 2.5 23.8% 21.6% 16.2% 1.33× 4.63
Sheffield United & under 3.5 22.8% 21.6% 32.4% 0.67× 4.63
Sheffield United & over 3.5 20.9% 21.6% 11.1% 1.94× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 20.2% 21.6% 20.4% 1.06× 4.63
Wrexham & under 3.5 17.5% 18.0% 22.3% 0.81× 5.55
Draw & under 2.5 15.0% 12.8% 21.8% 0.59× 7.79
Draw & under 3.5 15.0% 12.8% 21.8% 0.59× 7.79
Wrexham & over 3.5 14.3% 12.8% 6.8% 1.89× 7.79
Sheffield United & under 2.5 10.5% 12.8% 17.1% 0.75× 7.79
Draw & over 2.5 9.6% 7.9% 5.9% 1.33× 12.62
Draw & over 3.5 9.6% 7.9% 5.9% 1.33× 12.62
Wrexham & under 2.5 7.9% 7.9% 12.9% 0.61× 12.63
Sheffield United & under 1.5 4.9% 4.8% 11.0% 0.44× 20.81
Draw & under 1.5 4.4% 4.8% 7.3% 0.66× 20.81
Wrexham & under 1.5 3.9% 4.8% 7.7% 0.62× 20.82
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (1UP) 62.9% 62.9% — — 1.59
Wrexham (1UP) 53.0% 52.4% — — 1.91
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (2UP) 43.7% 47.1% — — 2.12
Wrexham (2UP) 31.7% 30.2% — — 3.31
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to win 2nd half 37.3% 36.5% — — 2.74
2nd half drawn 31.5% 34.0% — — 2.94
Wrexham to win 2nd half 31.1% 34.0% — — 2.94
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham under 1.5 in 2nd half 75.7% 79.3% — — 1.26
Wrexham over 0.5 in 2nd half 61.0% 60.2% — — 1.66
Wrexham under 0.5 in 2nd half 39.0% 39.8% — — 2.51
Wrexham over 1.5 in 2nd half 24.3% 20.7% — — 4.84
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United under 1.5 in 2nd half 71.4% 74.3% — — 1.35
Sheffield United over 0.5 in 2nd half 65.4% 70.6% — — 1.42
Sheffield United under 0.5 in 2nd half 34.6% 29.4% — — 3.40
Sheffield United over 1.5 in 2nd half 28.6% 25.7% — — 3.89
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham (+2.5) 89.0% 88.5% 91.9% 0.96× 1.13
Wrexham (+1.5) 75.5% 78.5% 80.7% 0.97× 1.27
Sheffield United (+0.5) 68.3% 68.7% 70.9% 0.97× 1.46
Wrexham (+0.5) 56.3% 57.1% 56.6% 1.01× 1.75
Sheffield United (-0.5) 43.7% 43.0% 43.4% 0.99× 2.33
Wrexham (-0.5) 31.7% 31.3% 29.1% 1.08× 3.19
Sheffield United (-1.5) 24.5% 21.5% 19.3% 1.12× 4.65
Sheffield United (-2.5) 11.0% 11.5% 8.1% 1.43× 8.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham to concede 84.4% 81.5% 77.6% 1.05× 1.23
Wrexham clean sheet 15.6% 18.5% 22.4% 0.82× 5.41
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham to concede in 1st half 55.1% 56.3% — — 1.78
Wrexham clean sheet in 1st half 44.9% 43.7% — — 2.29
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham to concede in 2nd half 65.4% 65.5% — — 1.53
Wrexham clean sheet in 2nd half 34.6% 34.5% — — 2.90
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham over 2.5 corners 79.8% 76.1% — — 1.32
Wrexham under 6.5 corners 69.6% 67.6% — — 1.48
Wrexham over 3.5 corners 66.8% 67.6% — — 1.48
Wrexham under 5.5 corners 59.0% 57.2% — — 1.75
Wrexham over 4.5 corners 53.4% 53.1% — — 1.88
Wrexham under 4.5 corners 46.6% 46.9% — — 2.13
Wrexham over 5.5 corners 41.0% 42.8% — — 2.34
Wrexham under 3.5 corners 33.2% 32.4% — — 3.09
Wrexham over 6.5 corners 30.4% 32.4% — — 3.09
Wrexham under 2.5 corners 20.2% 23.9% — — 4.18
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham under 3.5 goals 92.5% 92.3% 97.8% 0.94× 1.08
Wrexham over 0.5 goals 79.2% 76.3% 69.5% 1.10× 1.31
Wrexham under 2.5 goals 79.1% 76.3% 90.6% 0.84× 1.31
Wrexham under 1.5 goals 53.5% 53.5% 70.0% 0.76× 1.87
Wrexham over 1.5 goals 46.5% 46.5% 30.0% 1.55× 2.15
Wrexham over 2.5 goals 20.9% 23.7% 9.4% 2.52× 4.21
Wrexham under 0.5 goals 20.8% 23.7% 30.5% 0.78× 4.21
Wrexham over 3.5 goals 7.5% 7.7% 2.2% 3.46× 13.07
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham under 1.5 in 1st half 86.9% 89.2% — — 1.12
Wrexham under 0.5 in 1st half 53.4% 55.8% — — 1.79
Wrexham over 0.5 in 1st half 46.6% 44.2% — — 2.27
Wrexham over 1.5 in 1st half 13.1% 10.8% — — 9.28
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham scores more in 2nd half 41.5% 43.6% — — 2.29
Wrexham scores equally in both 35.1% 37.3% — — 2.68
Wrexham scores more in 1st half 23.5% 21.8% — — 4.58
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (away no bet) 64.0% 61.9% 61.1% 1.01× 1.61
Draw (away no bet) 36.0% 38.1% 38.9% 0.98× 2.63
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham even goals 52.2% 52.6% 52.4% 1.00× 1.90
Wrexham odd goals 47.8% 47.4% 47.6% 1.00× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 75.2% 80.8% — — 1.24
Both halves over 1.5 goals 24.8% 19.2% — — 5.22
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 77.0% 72.2% — — 1.39
Both halves under 1.5 goals 23.0% 27.8% — — 3.59
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 67.4% 62.5% — — 1.60
Sheffield United to score 2+ in a row 44.2% 38.8% — — 2.57
Wrexham to score 2+ in a row 34.5% 29.0% — — 3.45
Either team to score 3+ in a row 27.8% 25.0% — — 4.01
Sheffield United to score 3+ in a row 17.3% 16.1% — — 6.19
Wrexham to score 3+ in a row 11.2% 12.1% — — 8.25
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United corners (+3.5) 85.7% 84.5% — — 1.18
Sheffield United corners (+2.5) 80.5% 79.8% — — 1.25
Sheffield United corners (+1.5) 74.2% 70.8% — — 1.41
Wrexham corners (+3.5) 65.5% 65.9% — — 1.52
Wrexham corners (+2.5) 57.8% 57.2% — — 1.75
Sheffield United corners (-1.5) 50.4% 52.4% — — 1.91
Wrexham corners (+1.5) 49.6% 47.6% — — 2.10
Sheffield United corners (-2.5) 42.2% 42.8% — — 2.33
Sheffield United corners (-3.5) 34.5% 34.1% — — 2.93
Wrexham corners (-1.5) 25.8% 29.2% — — 3.42
Wrexham corners (-2.5) 19.5% 20.2% — — 4.94
Wrexham corners (-3.5) 14.3% 15.5% — — 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 51.5% 45.3% — — 2.21
0-8 corners 24.8% 25.7% — — 3.89
9-11 corners 23.7% 25.7% — — 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 82.1% 80.7% — — 1.24
Over 8.5 corners 75.2% 76.6% — — 1.31
Over 9.5 corners 67.5% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 10.5 corners 59.5% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 12.5 corners 56.2% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 11.5 corners 51.5% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 11.5 corners 48.5% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 12.5 corners 43.8% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 10.5 corners 40.5% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 9.5 corners 32.5% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 8.5 corners 24.8% 23.4% — — 4.27
Under 7.5 corners 17.9% 19.3% — — 5.17
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 10.6% 11.5% 14.5% 0.79× 8.72
2-1 8.8% 7.4% 11.5% 0.65× 13.51
1-2 7.4% 7.4% 8.0% 0.93× 13.51
2-2 6.9% 7.4% 5.2% 1.43× 13.51
2-0 5.6% 7.4% 6.1% 1.21× 13.51
3-1 5.5% 7.4% 4.3% 1.71× 13.51
Any other score 6.2% 7.4% 3.0% 2.49× 13.51
1-0 4.9% 1.7% 11.0% 0.16× 58.29
0-0 4.4% 1.7% 7.3% 0.23× 58.29
0-1 3.9% 1.7% 7.7% 0.22× 58.30
0-2 4.0% 1.7% 5.3% 0.33× 58.30
0-3 2.1% 1.7% 1.6% 1.06× 58.31
0-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.4% 4.04× 58.31
1-3 3.9% 1.7% 3.1% 0.56× 58.30
1-4 1.5% 1.7% 0.6% 2.88× 58.31
2-3 3.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.01× 58.30
2-4 1.4% 1.7% 0.3% 6.73× 58.31
3-0 3.5% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 58.30
3-2 4.3% 1.7% 1.8% 0.96× 58.30
3-3 2.2% 1.7% 0.9% 2.02× 58.31
3-4 0.9% 1.7% 0.3% 6.73× 58.31
4-0 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.01× 58.31
4-1 2.5% 1.7% 0.9% 2.02× 58.30
4-2 2.0% 1.7% 0.8% 2.24× 58.31
4-3 1.0% 1.7% 0.2% 10.09× 58.31
4-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.1% 20.18× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (2nd half DNB) 54.5% 54.8% — — 1.82
Wrexham (2nd half DNB) 45.5% 45.2% — — 2.21
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United leading at HT (DNB) 58.3% 55.7% — — 1.80
Wrexham leading at HT (DNB) 41.7% 44.4% — — 2.26
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United or Wrexham (12) 75.4% 75.5% 72.4% 1.04× 1.32
Sheffield United or draw (1X) 68.3% 69.6% 70.9% 0.98× 1.44
Wrexham or draw (X2) 56.3% 57.1% 56.6% 1.01× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United or draw at HT 74.1% 74.5% — — 1.34
Wrexham or draw at HT 63.9% 61.0% — — 1.64
Sheffield United or Wrexham at HT 62.0% 61.0% — — 1.64
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United or draw (1UP) 68.3% 76.5% — — 1.31
Wrexham or draw (1UP) 56.3% 62.9% — — 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United or draw in 2nd half 68.9% 66.0% — — 1.51
Sheffield United or Wrexham in 2nd half 68.5% 66.0% — — 1.52
Wrexham or draw in 2nd half 62.7% 63.5% — — 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 56.3% 58.8% — — 1.70
Neither half drawn 43.7% 41.2% — — 2.43
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (DNB) 57.9% 58.1% 59.9% 0.97× 1.72
Wrexham (DNB) 42.1% 41.9% 40.1% 1.04× 2.39
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to score first 51.9% 53.3% — — 1.88
Wrexham to score first 43.8% 41.7% — — 2.40
No goal scored 4.4% 4.4% — — 22.75
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 68.0% 58.4% 54.4% 1.07× 1.71
Not both teams to score 32.0% 41.6% 45.6% 0.91× 2.41
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 57.4% 47.5% 39.9% 1.19× 2.11
Not both score & under 2.5 22.8% 27.9% 37.1% 0.75× 3.59
Both score & under 2.5 10.6% 12.4% 14.5% 0.85× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 9.2% 8.3% 8.6% 0.97× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 74.2% 80.6% 89.0% 0.90× 1.24
Both teams to score 2+ 25.8% 19.4% 11.0% 1.77× 5.14
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 59.7% 65.9% — — 1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half 40.3% 34.1% — — 2.93
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 44.1% 50.6% — — 1.97
Both score 2nd half only 30.0% 28.3% — — 3.54
Both score 1st half only 15.6% 14.8% — — 6.74
Both score in both halves 10.2% 10.7% — — 9.34
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 74.1% 79.9% — — 1.25
Both teams to score by HT 25.9% 20.1% — — 4.98
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 66.3% 65.5% — — 1.53
A half without a goal 33.7% 34.5% — — 2.90
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 42.0% 42.2% 50.5% 0.84× 2.37
4-6 goals 38.8% 35.0% 22.4% 1.56× 2.85
0-1 goals 13.2% 17.0% 25.9% 0.65× 5.90
7+ goals 6.0% 7.6% 1.4% 5.59× 13.15
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham to score exactly 1 32.7% 33.8% 39.6% 0.85× 2.96
Wrexham to score exactly 2 25.6% 27.4% 20.6% 1.33× 3.65
Wrexham to score exactly 0 20.8% 22.3% 30.5% 0.73× 4.49
Wrexham to score 3+ 20.9% 22.3% 9.4% 2.36× 4.49
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to score exactly 1 29.0% 26.6% 37.0% 0.72× 3.77
Sheffield United to score 3+ 28.5% 26.6% 16.1% 1.65× 3.77
Sheffield United to score exactly 2 26.9% 26.6% 24.6% 1.08× 3.77
Sheffield United to score exactly 0 15.6% 18.8% 22.4% 0.84× 5.33
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 38.0% 39.0% — — 2.56
Sheffield United leading at HT 36.1% 39.0% — — 2.57
Wrexham leading at HT 25.9% 25.5% — — 3.93
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United -1: 2 56.3% 56.7% — — 1.76
Sheffield United -1: 1 24.5% 23.5% — — 4.25
Sheffield United -1: X 19.2% 17.5% — — 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham (0:1) 56.3% 55.8% 56.6% 0.99× 1.79
Sheffield United (0:1) 24.5% 24.2% 19.3% 1.26× 4.13
Draw (0:1) 19.2% 17.8% 24.2% 0.74× 5.61
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham (0:2) 75.5% 79.3% 80.7% 0.98× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 13.5% 11.0% 11.3% 0.97× 9.09
Sheffield United (0:2) 11.0% 11.0% 8.1% 1.36× 9.11
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham (0:3) 89.0% 90.6% 91.9% 0.99× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 6.9% 5.8% 4.8% 1.22× 17.25
Sheffield United (0:3) 4.1% 2.4% 3.4% 0.70× 41.96
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham (0:4) 95.9% 98.1% 96.6% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.8% 1.2% 2.4% 0.52× 81.59
Sheffield United (0:4) 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.11× 81.76
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (1:0) 68.3% 70.2% 70.9% 0.99× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 16.0% 17.1% 17.4% 0.98× 5.85
Wrexham (1:0) 15.7% 17.1% 11.7% 1.46× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (2:0) 84.3% 84.6% 88.3% 0.96× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 9.6% 6.4% 8.6% 0.75× 15.63
Wrexham (2:0) 6.1% 6.4% 3.2% 1.98× 15.67
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 50.0% 48.7% — — 2.05
1st half highest scoring 26.7% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 23.3% 24.5% — — 4.08
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to concede 79.2% 76.1% 69.5% 1.10× 1.31
Sheffield United clean sheet 20.8% 23.9% 30.5% 0.78× 4.18
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United clean sheet in 1st half 53.4% 55.8% — — 1.79
Sheffield United to concede in 1st half 46.6% 44.2% — — 2.27
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to concede in 2nd half 61.0% 59.7% — — 1.68
Sheffield United clean sheet in 2nd half 39.0% 40.3% — — 2.48
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United over 2.5 corners 89.0% 86.2% — — 1.16
Sheffield United over 3.5 corners 80.4% 81.0% — — 1.24
Sheffield United over 4.5 corners 70.1% 71.9% — — 1.39
Sheffield United over 5.5 corners 59.3% 57.5% — — 1.74
Sheffield United under 6.5 corners 51.2% 52.6% — — 1.90
Sheffield United over 6.5 corners 48.8% 47.4% — — 2.11
Sheffield United under 5.5 corners 40.7% 42.5% — — 2.35
Sheffield United under 4.5 corners 29.9% 28.1% — — 3.56
Sheffield United under 3.5 corners 19.6% 19.0% — — 5.26
Sheffield United under 2.5 corners 11.0% 13.8% — — 7.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United under 3.5 goals 88.2% 87.3% 94.8% 0.92× 1.15
Sheffield United over 0.5 goals 84.4% 82.2% 77.6% 1.06× 1.22
Sheffield United under 2.5 goals 71.5% 74.2% 83.9% 0.88× 1.35
Sheffield United over 1.5 goals 55.5% 58.6% 40.6% 1.44× 1.71
Sheffield United under 1.5 goals 44.5% 41.4% 59.4% 0.70× 2.42
Sheffield United over 2.5 goals 28.5% 25.8% 16.1% 1.60× 3.88
Sheffield United under 0.5 goals 15.6% 17.8% 22.4% 0.79× 5.62
Sheffield United over 3.5 goals 11.8% 12.7% 5.2% 2.46× 7.86
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United under 1.5 in 1st half 80.9% 84.0% — — 1.19
Sheffield United over 0.5 in 1st half 55.1% 56.1% — — 1.78
Sheffield United under 0.5 in 1st half 44.9% 43.9% — — 2.28
Sheffield United over 1.5 in 1st half 19.1% 16.0% — — 6.24
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United scores more in 2nd half 41.1% 41.6% — — 2.40
Sheffield United scores equally in both 31.8% 33.2% — — 3.01
Sheffield United scores more in 1st half 27.1% 27.8% — — 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham (home no bet) 56.3% 56.4% 51.3% 1.10× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 43.7% 43.6% 48.7% 0.90× 2.29
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United even goals 51.2% 50.7% 50.5% 1.01× 1.97
Sheffield United odd goals 48.8% 49.3% 49.5% 0.99× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 24.2% 24.4% — — 4.10
HT 1-0 19.0% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 0-1 14.9% 11.0% — — 9.07
HT 1-1 12.2% 11.0% — — 9.10
HT 2-0 7.7% 6.9% — — 14.54
Any other HT score 7.2% 6.9% — — 14.54
HT 0-2 4.7% 2.4% — — 42.09
HT 2-1 4.8% 2.4% — — 42.09
HT 1-2 3.8% 2.4% — — 42.16
HT 2-2 1.5% 2.4% — — 42.30
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United at HT / Sheffield United at FT 27.0% 27.3% — — 3.66
Wrexham at HT / Wrexham at FT 17.5% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Sheffield United at FT 13.5% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 13.3% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Wrexham at FT 11.2% 12.7% — — 7.90
Sheffield United at HT / Draw at FT 6.0% 6.1% — — 16.52
Wrexham at HT / Draw at FT 5.2% 6.0% — — 16.54
Wrexham at HT / Sheffield United at FT 3.1% 3.5% — — 28.91
Sheffield United at HT / Wrexham at FT 3.1% 3.5% — — 28.91
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to score last 51.9% 52.1% — — 1.92
Wrexham to score last 43.7% 40.1% — — 2.50
No goal scored 4.4% 4.4% — — 22.75
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.6% 95.5% — — 1.05
Sheffield United to lead by 1 at any time 62.9% 61.2% — — 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 56.1% 54.9% — — 1.82
Wrexham to lead by 1 at any time 53.0% 50.6% — — 1.98
Sheffield United to lead by 2 at any time 33.1% 29.8% — — 3.36
Wrexham to lead by 2 at any time 23.6% 19.5% — — 5.12
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 22.9% 19.5% — — 5.12
Sheffield United to lead by 3 at any time 14.3% 10.6% — — 9.40
Wrexham to lead by 3 at any time 8.6% 6.7% — — 14.99
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United most corners 58.8% 55.6% — — 1.80
Wrexham most corners 33.2% 34.4% — — 2.91
Corners level 8.1% 8.3% — — 11.99
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 82.3% 83.4% 88.8% 0.94× 1.20
2-6 goals 80.8% 83.4% 72.8% 1.15× 1.20
2-5 goals 73.5% 72.3% 70.2% 1.03× 1.38
1-4 goals 69.5% 68.8% 83.3% 0.83× 1.45
2-4 goals 60.7% 63.3% 64.7% 0.98× 1.58
3-6 goals 60.6% 63.3% 47.2% 1.34× 1.58
3-5 goals 53.3% 53.2% 44.5% 1.19× 1.88
1-3 goals 50.8% 53.2% 69.1% 0.77× 1.88
2-3 goals 42.0% 43.6% 50.5% 0.86× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.5% 43.6% 39.1% 1.12× 2.29
4-6 goals 38.8% 39.2% 22.4% 1.75× 2.55
4-5 goals 31.5% 35.2% 19.8% 1.78× 2.84
1-2 goals 29.0% 30.2% 44.4% 0.68× 3.31
5-6 goals 20.1% 24.4% 8.2% 3.00× 4.09
7+ goals 6.0% 8.9% 1.4% 6.53× 11.27
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United never behind 42.6% 48.7% — — 2.05
Wrexham never behind 32.7% 36.3% — — 2.75
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.7% 50.9% 49.4% 1.03× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.3% 49.1% 50.6% 0.97× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.3% 51.7% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 46.7% 48.3% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.7% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.3% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.6% 95.4% 92.7% 1.03× 1.05
Over 1.5 goals 86.8% 87.6% 74.1% 1.18× 1.14
Under 5.5 goals 86.7% 87.6% 96.0% 0.91× 1.14
Under 4.5 goals 73.9% 72.5% 90.6% 0.80× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 66.6% 66.3% 48.4% 1.37× 1.51
Under 3.5 goals 55.2% 58.6% 76.3% 0.77× 1.71
Over 3.5 goals 44.8% 41.4% 23.7% 1.75× 2.42
Under 2.5 goals 33.4% 33.7% 51.6% 0.65× 2.97
Over 4.5 goals 26.1% 27.5% 9.4% 2.92× 3.64
Over 5.5 goals 13.3% 12.4% 4.0% 3.11× 8.06
Under 1.5 goals 13.2% 12.4% 25.9% 0.48× 8.06
Under 0.5 goals 4.4% 4.6% 7.3% 0.63× 21.80
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 93.5% 92.4% 98.6% 0.94× 1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 84.7% 81.1% 95.8% 0.85× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 83.4% 81.1% 65.1% 1.24× 1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 67.9% 67.5% 89.0% 0.76× 1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 57.3% 55.8% 31.5% 1.77× 1.79
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 42.7% 44.2% 68.5% 0.65× 2.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 32.1% 32.5% 11.0% 2.95× 3.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 16.6% 18.9% 34.9% 0.54× 5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 15.3% 18.9% 4.2% 4.47× 5.29
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 6.5% 7.6% 1.4% 5.43× 13.20
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 82.7% 85.7% — — 1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half 75.8% 78.1% — — 1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half 58.0% 64.2% — — 1.56
Over 1.5 in 1st half 42.0% 35.8% — — 2.79
Under 0.5 in 1st half 24.2% 21.9% — — 4.57
Over 2.5 in 1st half 17.3% 14.3% — — 7.00
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 86.1% 85.3% — — 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 67.6% 68.5% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 59.8% 55.2% — — 1.81
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 40.2% 44.8% — — 2.23
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 32.4% 31.5% — — 3.17
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 13.9% 14.7% — — 6.79
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham not to score in both halves 71.5% 73.8% — — 1.35
Sheffield United not to score in both halves 64.0% 63.5% — — 1.58
Sheffield United to score in both halves 36.0% 36.5% — — 2.74
Wrexham to score in both halves 28.5% 26.2% — — 3.82
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 68.0% 59.9% 54.4% 1.10× 1.67
Only Sheffield United scores 16.4% 16.0% 23.3% 0.69× 6.24
Only Wrexham scores 11.2% 11.0% 15.2% 0.73× 9.07
Neither team scores 4.4% 4.6% 7.3% 0.64× 21.54
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 21.8% 22.6% 24.8% 0.91× 4.43
Exactly 2 goals 20.2% 22.6% 25.7% 0.88× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 18.7% 17.5% 14.4% 1.22× 5.73
6 or more goals 13.3% 12.1% 4.0% 3.03× 8.25
Exactly 5 goals 12.8% 12.1% 5.5% 2.19× 8.25
Exactly 1 goals 8.8% 7.6% 18.7% 0.41× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 4.4% 4.5% 7.3% 0.61× 22.33
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 33.9% 35.8% — — 2.79
2 goals in 1st half 24.6% 21.4% — — 4.67
No goals in 1st half 24.2% 21.4% — — 4.67
3+ goals in 1st half 17.3% 15.7% — — 6.36
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 59.8% 54.2% — — 1.84
1 goal in 2nd half 26.3% 29.0% — — 3.44
No goals in 2nd half 13.9% 14.6% — — 6.86
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham not to win both halves 91.8% 94.1% — — 1.06
Sheffield United not to win both halves 86.3% 87.9% — — 1.14
Sheffield United to win both halves 13.7% 12.1% — — 8.27
Wrexham to win both halves 8.2% 5.9% — — 17.06
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to win either half 59.7% 59.1% — — 1.69
Wrexham to win neither half 51.2% 54.3% — — 1.84
Wrexham to win either half 48.8% 45.7% — — 2.19
Sheffield United to win neither half 40.3% 40.9% — — 2.45
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham not to win to nil 88.8% 88.1% 84.8% 1.04× 1.14
Sheffield United not to win to nil 83.6% 83.1% 76.7% 1.08× 1.20
Sheffield United to win to nil 16.4% 16.9% 23.3% 0.73× 5.92
Wrexham to win to nil 11.2% 11.9% 15.2% 0.78× 8.42
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 24.6% 24.1% 27.6% 0.87× 4.15
Sheffield United by 1 19.2% 17.0% 24.2% 0.70× 5.87
Wrexham by 1 16.0% 17.0% 17.4% 0.98× 5.87
Sheffield United by 2 13.5% 11.8% 11.3% 1.04× 8.50
Sheffield United by 3+ 11.0% 11.8% 8.1% 1.46× 8.51
Wrexham by 2 9.6% 7.2% 8.6% 0.84× 13.90
Wrexham by 3+ 6.1% 7.2% 3.2% 2.23× 13.92
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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