Şi̇mal v Xankəndi — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 8 October 2026 · AZE-First Division · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 13.5%
- 0-1 11.9%
- 0-0 10.0%
- 0-2 9.8%
- 1-2 9.2%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 43.8% | Under 2.5 | 56.2% |
| BTTS yes | 48.4% | BTTS no | 51.6% |
| Şi̇mal 1+ | 61.0% | Şi̇mal 2+ | 24.3% |
| Xankəndi 1+ | 77.5% | Xankəndi 2+ | 43.9% |
Expected goals 0.94 – 1.49. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Xankəndi have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Şi̇mal have allowed 1.35.
- Away from home Xankəndi average 1.35 xG a match.
Risk factors
- The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.88).
- Data quality is 20/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Şi̇mal have only 0 matches on record.
- Xankəndi have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Xankəndi have an estimated 48.8% win probability, against 28.6% for the draw and 22.6% for Şi̇mal. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.94 for Şi̇mal and 1.49 for Xankəndi.
Why Şi̇mal
Şi̇mal have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Xankəndi have allowed 1.35. At home Şi̇mal average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 28.6%.
Why Xankəndi can win
Xankəndi have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Şi̇mal have allowed 1.35. Away from home Xankəndi average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Şi̇mal, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Xankəndi, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Şi̇mal: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Xankəndi: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·
Xankəndi are the model's most likely outcome at 48.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.5%. Confidence 20/100, data quality 20/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 0.94–1.49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 0.78–1.80 | 0-1 13% | 48% | 46% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.