Sochaux v Dunkerque — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 20 November 2026 · FRA-Ligue 2 · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 0-1 14.0%
- 1-1 13.6%
- 0-0 12.9%
- 1-0 12.2%
- 0-2 7.7%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 33.7% | Under 2.5 | 66.3% |
| BTTS yes | 41.1% | BTTS no | 58.9% |
| Sochaux 1+ | 61.6% | Sochaux 2+ | 24.9% |
| Dunkerque 1+ | 66.5% | Dunkerque 2+ | 29.9% |
Expected goals 0.96 – 1.09. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Dunkerque.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Sochaux have only 5 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Dunkerque have an estimated 38.3% win probability, against 31.3% for Sochaux and 30.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.96 for Sochaux and 1.09 for Dunkerque.
Why Sochaux
Sochaux carry the stronger rating, 1496 Elo against 1434.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 30.5%. A combined 2.05 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 0.96 to 1.09. Draws run at 28% in this competition.
Why Dunkerque can win
Nothing in the data singles out Dunkerque.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Sochaux, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Dunkerque, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Sochaux: 41% possession, 8.4 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Dunkerque: 56% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Dunkerque are the model's most likely outcome at 38.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 14.0%. Confidence 64/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 0.96–1.09 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 0.73–0.85 | 0-0 21% | 21% | 30% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.