Southampton v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 25 May 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 23
On target
2 – 7
Shots in box
5 – 16
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.26 – 0.52
Goals − xG
+0.40 – -0.43
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Southampton win
7.0%
Draw
14.3%
Arsenal win
78.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Southampton have scored 6 from 7.4 expected and conceded 18 from 18.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLDLLDLL last 10
scored 6
from 7.4 xG
conceded 18
from 18.4 xG
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.62–2.52 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.69–2.73 | 0-2 12% | 66% | 47% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Southampton 0.60 xGArsenal 2.43 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Southampton attacking right
Arsenal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Oleksandr Zinchenko |
| 3' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 6' |
Arsenal |
Raheem Sterling | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ethan Nwaneri |
| 9' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thomas Partey |
| 19' |
 Southampton |
Yukinari Sugawara | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 26' |
Arsenal |
Thomas Partey | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Declan Rice |
| 29' |
Southampton |
Ross Stewart | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mateus Fernandes |
| 40' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kieran Tierney |
| 41' |
Arsenal |
Oleksandr Zinchenko | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ethan Nwaneri |
| 42' |
Arsenal |
Kieran Tierney | 0.44 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Ben White |
| 46' |
Southampton |
Kamaldeen Sulemana | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Southampton |
Kamaldeen Sulemana | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Arsenal |
Ethan Nwaneri | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 54' |
Southampton |
Mateus Fernandes | 0.12 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Southampton |
Jay Robinson | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mateus Fernandes |
| 55' |
Southampton |
Ross Stewart | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Goal | Mateus Fernandes |
| 58' |
Arsenal |
Ethan Nwaneri | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 58' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ben White |
| 58' |
Arsenal |
Oleksandr Zinchenko | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ethan Nwaneri |
| 66' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mikel Merino |
| 66' |
Arsenal |
Oleksandr Zinchenko | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 67' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 68' |
Arsenal |
Oleksandr Zinchenko | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ethan Nwaneri |
| 75' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 75' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Leandro Trossard |
| 92' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kai Havertz |
| 92' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bukayo Saka |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Rice DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.44 | 0.14 | 1.17 |
| Mikel Merino FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.10 | 0.32 |
| Thomas Partey DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.77 |
| Ben White DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.43 |
| Jakub Kiwior DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Ethan Nwaneri AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.40 |
| Gabriel Martinelli AML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.57 | 0.22 | 0.95 |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko DL | 71 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.02 | 0.90 |
| Kieran Tierney DC | 64 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.29 | 0.78 |
| Raheem Sterling AMR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Bukayo Saka Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.21 | 0.41 |
| Leandro Trossard Sub | 26 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kai Havertz Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| Martin Odegaard Sub | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Southampton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateus Fernandes MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| Yukinari Sugawara DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Charlie Taylor DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Welington DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathan Wood DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aaron Ramsdale GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Flynn Downes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chimuanya Ugochukwu MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana ML | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jay Robinson MR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ross Stewart FW | 71 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Paul Onuachu Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| William Smallbone Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cameron Archer Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joachim Kayi-Sanda Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |