Southampton v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 February 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 18
On target
1 – 12
Shots in box
2 – 14
xG per shot
0.03 – 0.28
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.19
Goals − xG
-0.15 – -1.12
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Southampton win
15.0%
Draw
21.3%
Brighton and Hove Albion win
63.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Southampton have scored 6 from 7.4 expected and conceded 18 from 18.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLDLLDLL last 10
scored 6
from 7.4 xG
conceded 18
from 18.4 xG
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.96–2.14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.28–2.18 | 1-2 10% | 67% | 64% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Southampton 0.15 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 5.12 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Southampton attacking right
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 15' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.11 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 15' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Georginio Rutter |
| 18' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yasin Ayari |
| 19' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yasin Ayari |
| 22' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 36' |
 Southampton |
Mateus Fernandes | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyler Dibling |
| 36' |
Southampton |
Mateus Fernandes | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Baleba |
| 39' |
Southampton |
Welington | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mateus Fernandes |
| 55' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Yankuba Minteh |
| 67' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.76 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Diego Gómez |
| 68' |
Southampton |
Cameron Archer | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kamaldeen Sulemana |
| 68' |
Southampton |
Kamaldeen Sulemana | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Chimuanya Ugochukwu |
| 70' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | João Pedro |
| 75' |
Southampton |
Yukinari Sugawara | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyler Dibling |
| 77' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | João Pedro |
| 81' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Brajan Gruda |
| 84' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Baleba |
| 86' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jan Paul van Hecke | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Simon Adingra |
| 86' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Simon Adingra | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mats Wieffer |
| 91' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jan Paul van Hecke |
| 91' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Simon Adingra | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mats Wieffer |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankuba Minteh AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1.33 | 0.49 | 2.37 |
| Carlos Baleba DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1.08 | 0.55 | 2.00 |
| João Pedro FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.91 | 2.09 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.46 | 1.02 |
| Adam Webster DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.65 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Jack Hinshelwood DR | 85 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.97 |
| Georginio Rutter AMC | 81 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.14 | 0.01 | 1.56 |
| Kaoru Mitoma AML | 81 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.97 | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| Yasin Ayari DMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 1.20 |
| Tariq Lamptey DL | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Estupiñán Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.86 |
| Diego Gómez Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.76 | 2.13 |
| Simon Adingra Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.68 |
| Brajan Gruda Sub | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| Mats Wieffer Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.55 |
Southampton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateus Fernandes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Tyler Dibling FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| Kyle Walker-Peters DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joe Ayodele-Aribo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| James Bree DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aaron Ramsdale GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Armel Bella Kotchap Sub | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Cameron Archer FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Chimuanya Ugochukwu MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Welington DML | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yukinari Sugawara Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| William Smallbone Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Paul Onuachu Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan Bednarek DC | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Albert Grønbæk Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |