Southampton v Burnley — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 9 December 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Southampton

20:00 UTC

Burnley

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 1,089h before kick-off

Southampton win

57.9%

model 58.2%

Draw

23.1%

model 24.0%

Burnley win

19.1%

model 17.7%

582319

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.4%
2-1 10.0%
2-0 9.8%
1-0 8.8%
3-1 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	57.0%	Under 2.5	43.0%
BTTS yes	55.9%	BTTS no	44.1%
Southampton 1+	85.9%	Southampton 2+	58.3%
Burnley 1+	63.6%	Burnley 2+	26.8%

Expected goals 1.96 – 1.01. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

47/100

Data quality

80/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Southampton (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 43%

57.1% fair odds 1.75

strong signal · 1154 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Southampton or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Southampton carry the stronger rating, 1628 Elo against 1396.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Southampton have an estimated 57.9% win probability, against 23.1% for the draw and 19.1% for Burnley. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.96 for Southampton and 1.01 for Burnley.

Why Southampton

Southampton carry the stronger rating, 1628 Elo against 1396. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.1%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Burnley can win

Nothing in the data singles out Burnley.

Key players

Southampton's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mateus Fernandes (0.20), Paul Onuachu (0.20), Cameron Archer (0.17). Burnley's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Zian Flemming (0.35), Jaidon Anthony (0.24), Marcus Edwards (0.15).

Availability

2 of Southampton's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of Burnley's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Southampton: 57% possession, 16.8 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces. Burnley: 50% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.16 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Southampton are the model's most likely outcome at 57.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.4%. Confidence 47/100, data quality 80/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Southampton have scored 6 from 7.4 expected and conceded 18 from 18.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LDLLDLLDLL last 10 scored 6 from 7.4 xG conceded 18 from 18.4 xG

Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LDLLLLLDLD last 10 scored 6 from 10.4 xG conceded 19 from 20.9 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	582418	1.96–1.01	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	522623	1.83–1.16	1-1 12%	57%	59%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to win	51.8%	51.5%	43.4%	1.19×	1.94
Draw	25.5%	27.9%	27.6%	1.01×	3.59
Burnley to win	22.7%	24.5%	29.1%	0.84×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton & both teams score	26.6%	25.2%	20.2%	1.24×	3.98
Southampton & not both score	25.1%	25.1%	23.3%	1.08×	3.98
Draw & both teams score	19.1%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Burnley & both teams score	13.0%	13.3%	13.9%	0.95×	7.54
Burnley & not both score	9.7%	8.3%	15.2%	0.55×	12.00
Draw & not both score	6.4%	8.3%	7.3%	1.14×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton & over 1.5	43.8%	40.3%	32.5%	1.24×	2.48
Southampton & over 2.5	35.3%	34.9%	26.4%	1.32×	2.87
Southampton & under 3.5	31.4%	30.7%	32.4%	0.95×	3.25
Southampton & over 3.5	20.4%	21.6%	11.1%	1.94×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.1%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	18.4%	18.0%	21.8%	0.83×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.4%	18.0%	21.8%	0.83×	5.56
Burnley & over 1.5	18.1%	18.0%	21.4%	0.84×	5.56
Southampton & under 2.5	16.4%	18.0%	17.1%	1.05×	5.56
Burnley & under 3.5	15.4%	18.0%	22.3%	0.81×	5.56
Burnley & over 2.5	14.8%	12.8%	16.2%	0.79×	7.79
Southampton & under 1.5	8.0%	7.9%	11.0%	0.72×	12.63
Burnley & under 2.5	8.0%	7.9%	12.9%	0.61×	12.63
Burnley & over 3.5	7.3%	7.9%	6.8%	1.17×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.4%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.2%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.2%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63
Burnley & under 1.5	4.6%	4.8%	7.7%	0.62×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (1UP)	67.2%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Burnley (1UP)	42.3%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (2UP)	51.8%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Burnley (2UP)	22.7%	23.7%	—	—	4.22

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to win 2nd half	42.7%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
2nd half drawn	33.8%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Burnley to win 2nd half	23.5%	24.2%	—	—	4.13

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley under 1.5 in 2nd half	84.7%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Burnley under 0.5 in 2nd half	50.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Burnley over 0.5 in 2nd half	50.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Burnley over 1.5 in 2nd half	15.3%	15.6%	—	—	6.40

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton under 1.5 in 2nd half	72.1%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Southampton over 0.5 in 2nd half	64.7%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
Southampton under 0.5 in 2nd half	35.3%	37.0%	—	—	2.70
Southampton over 1.5 in 2nd half	27.9%	25.7%	—	—	3.89

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley (+2.5)	86.3%	88.5%	91.9%	0.96×	1.13
Southampton (+0.5)	77.3%	78.5%	70.9%	1.11×	1.27
Burnley (+1.5)	70.1%	73.6%	80.7%	0.91×	1.36
Southampton (-0.5)	51.8%	52.4%	43.4%	1.21×	1.91
Burnley (+0.5)	48.2%	47.6%	56.6%	0.84×	2.10
Southampton (-1.5)	29.9%	26.4%	19.3%	1.37×	3.79
Burnley (-0.5)	22.7%	21.5%	29.1%	0.74×	4.65
Southampton (-2.5)	13.7%	11.5%	8.1%	1.43×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley to concede	83.9%	81.6%	77.6%	1.05×	1.23
Burnley clean sheet	16.1%	18.4%	22.4%	0.82×	5.42

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley to concede in 1st half	54.4%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Burnley clean sheet in 1st half	45.6%	49.4%	—	—	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley to concede in 2nd half	64.7%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Burnley clean sheet in 2nd half	35.3%	38.5%	—	—	2.60

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley under 6.5 corners	92.8%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Burnley under 5.5 corners	87.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Burnley under 4.5 corners	78.2%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Burnley under 3.5 corners	64.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Burnley over 2.5 corners	53.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Burnley under 2.5 corners	47.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Burnley over 3.5 corners	35.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Burnley over 4.5 corners	21.8%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
Burnley over 5.5 corners	12.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
Burnley over 6.5 corners	7.2%	10.1%	—	—	9.89

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley under 3.5 goals	97.0%	97.5%	97.8%	1.00×	1.03
Burnley under 2.5 goals	88.9%	87.8%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
Burnley over 0.5 goals	68.5%	68.0%	69.5%	0.98×	1.47
Burnley under 1.5 goals	67.9%	68.0%	70.0%	0.97×	1.47
Burnley over 1.5 goals	32.1%	32.0%	30.0%	1.07×	3.13
Burnley under 0.5 goals	31.5%	32.0%	30.5%	1.05×	3.13
Burnley over 2.5 goals	11.1%	12.2%	9.4%	1.29×	8.21
Burnley over 3.5 goals	3.0%	2.5%	2.2%	1.13×	39.91

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley under 1.5 in 1st half	92.1%	93.8%	—	—	1.07
Burnley under 0.5 in 1st half	63.0%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Burnley over 0.5 in 1st half	37.0%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Burnley over 1.5 in 1st half	7.9%	6.2%	—	—	16.09

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley scores equally in both	42.4%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Burnley scores more in 2nd half	36.2%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Burnley scores more in 1st half	21.4%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (away no bet)	67.0%	66.3%	61.1%	1.09×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	33.0%	33.7%	38.9%	0.87×	2.97

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley even goals	55.0%	52.6%	52.4%	1.00×	1.90
Burnley odd goals	45.0%	47.4%	47.6%	1.00×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	81.7%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.3%	17.2%	—	—	5.80

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	69.5%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	30.5%	31.5%	—	—	3.18

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	61.2%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Southampton to score 2+ in a row	45.8%	46.0%	—	—	2.17
Either team to score 3+ in a row	24.2%	19.6%	—	—	5.09
Burnley to score 2+ in a row	22.7%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Southampton to score 3+ in a row	18.9%	16.2%	—	—	6.16
Burnley to score 3+ in a row	5.7%	5.5%	—	—	18.21

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton corners (+3.5)	93.6%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Southampton corners (+2.5)	89.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Southampton corners (+1.5)	82.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Burnley corners (+3.5)	69.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Burnley corners (+2.5)	59.5%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Southampton corners (-1.5)	51.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Burnley corners (+1.5)	48.3%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Southampton corners (-2.5)	40.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Southampton corners (-3.5)	30.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Burnley corners (-1.5)	17.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Burnley corners (-2.5)	10.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Burnley corners (-3.5)	6.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	60.9%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
9-11 corners	22.9%	25.7%	—	—	3.90
12+ corners	16.2%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	88.5%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	83.8%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	77.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	70.0%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 8.5 corners	60.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 7.5 corners	50.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 7.5 corners	49.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 8.5 corners	39.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 9.5 corners	30.0%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 10.5 corners	22.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 11.5 corners	16.2%	19.3%	—	—	5.17
Over 12.5 corners	11.5%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.0%	11.5%	14.5%	0.79×	8.72
2-0	8.5%	7.4%	6.1%	1.21×	13.51
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	11.5%	0.65×	13.51
1-0	8.0%	7.4%	11.0%	0.67×	13.51
0-0	6.4%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
1-2	6.2%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.51
2-2	5.6%	7.4%	5.2%	1.43×	13.51
3-0	5.2%	7.4%	4.0%	1.85×	13.51
3-1	5.9%	7.4%	4.3%	1.71×	13.51
0-1	4.6%	1.7%	7.7%	0.22×	58.29
0-2	3.4%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	58.30
0-3	1.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.31
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.4%	4.04×	58.32
1-3	2.4%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.31
1-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.6%	2.88×	58.32
2-3	2.2%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.32
3-2	3.4%	1.7%	1.8%	0.96×	58.30
3-3	1.3%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.31
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.32
4-0	2.4%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
4-1	2.7%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.30
4-2	1.6%	1.7%	0.8%	2.24×	58.31
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.2%	10.09×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.1%	20.18×	58.32
Any other score	4.5%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.29

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (2nd half DNB)	64.5%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
Burnley (2nd half DNB)	35.5%	37.0%	—	—	2.70

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton leading at HT (DNB)	66.9%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Burnley leading at HT (DNB)	33.1%	25.9%	—	—	3.86

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or draw (1X)	77.3%	75.5%	70.9%	1.06×	1.32
Southampton or Burnley (12)	74.5%	72.1%	72.4%	1.00×	1.39
Burnley or draw (X2)	48.2%	48.5%	56.6%	0.86×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or draw at HT	80.4%	83.8%	—	—	1.19
Burnley or draw at HT	60.2%	60.9%	—	—	1.64
Southampton or Burnley at HT	59.4%	57.7%	—	—	1.73

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or draw (1UP)	77.3%	83.7%	—	—	1.19
Burnley or draw (1UP)	48.2%	53.4%	—	—	1.87

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or draw in 2nd half	76.5%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Southampton or Burnley in 2nd half	66.2%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Burnley or draw in 2nd half	57.3%	58.1%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.2%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
Neither half drawn	40.8%	41.2%	—	—	2.43

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (DNB)	69.5%	67.4%	59.9%	1.13×	1.48
Burnley (DNB)	30.5%	32.6%	40.1%	0.81×	3.07

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to score first	57.4%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Burnley to score first	36.3%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
No goal scored	6.4%	7.4%	—	—	13.51

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.7%	55.0%	54.4%	1.01×	1.82
Not both teams to score	41.3%	45.0%	45.6%	0.99×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	46.8%	44.3%	39.9%	1.11×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	30.8%	34.5%	37.1%	0.93×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	12.0%	12.4%	14.5%	0.85×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	10.5%	12.4%	8.6%	1.44×	8.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	82.5%	82.6%	89.0%	0.93×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	17.5%	17.4%	11.0%	1.59×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	67.2%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	32.8%	32.9%	—	—	3.04

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	53.4%	54.5%	—	—	1.83
Both score 2nd half only	26.3%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
Both score 1st half only	13.8%	10.8%	—	—	9.26
Both score in both halves	6.5%	6.8%	—	—	14.71

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.7%	81.2%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.3%	18.8%	—	—	5.33

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	59.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	40.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.2%	47.2%	50.5%	0.94×	2.12
4-6 goals	31.6%	30.7%	22.4%	1.37×	3.26
0-1 goals	18.9%	20.2%	25.9%	0.78×	4.95
7+ goals	3.2%	1.8%	1.4%	1.36×	54.21

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley to score exactly 1	36.4%	35.9%	39.6%	0.91×	2.78
Burnley to score exactly 0	31.5%	33.8%	30.5%	1.11×	2.96
Burnley to score exactly 2	21.0%	22.3%	20.6%	1.08×	4.49
Burnley to score 3+	11.1%	12.9%	9.4%	1.37×	7.77

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to score exactly 1	29.4%	26.6%	37.0%	0.72×	3.77
Southampton to score 3+	27.6%	26.6%	16.1%	1.64×	3.77
Southampton to score exactly 2	26.9%	26.5%	24.6%	1.08×	3.77
Southampton to score exactly 0	16.1%	18.7%	22.4%	0.84×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	40.6%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Southampton leading at HT	39.8%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Burnley leading at HT	19.6%	16.2%	—	—	6.19

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton -1: 2	48.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Southampton -1: 1	29.9%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Southampton -1: X	21.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley (0:1)	48.2%	46.2%	56.6%	0.82×	2.17
Southampton (0:1)	29.9%	27.0%	19.3%	1.40×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	21.9%	24.2%	24.2%	1.00×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley (0:2)	70.1%	75.6%	80.7%	0.94×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	16.2%	15.3%	11.3%	1.35×	6.56
Southampton (0:2)	13.7%	11.0%	8.1%	1.36×	9.10

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley (0:3)	86.3%	90.6%	91.9%	0.99×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	8.5%	5.8%	4.8%	1.22×	17.21
Southampton (0:3)	5.2%	5.8%	3.4%	1.70×	17.26

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley (0:4)	94.8%	94.6%	96.6%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	3.5%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	81.78
Southampton (0:4)	1.7%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	81.99

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (1:0)	77.3%	78.6%	70.9%	1.11×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	13.4%	12.7%	17.4%	0.73×	7.87
Burnley (1:0)	9.4%	6.9%	11.7%	0.59×	14.45

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (2:0)	90.6%	94.0%	88.3%	1.06×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	6.5%	6.4%	8.6%	0.74×	15.68
Burnley (2:0)	2.9%	2.3%	3.2%	0.71×	43.71

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.8%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	26.7%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	25.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to concede	68.5%	66.7%	69.5%	0.96×	1.50
Southampton clean sheet	31.5%	33.3%	30.5%	1.09×	3.01

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton clean sheet in 1st half	63.0%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Southampton to concede in 1st half	37.0%	36.7%	—	—	2.73

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton clean sheet in 2nd half	50.0%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
Southampton to concede in 2nd half	50.0%	47.3%	—	—	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton over 2.5 corners	76.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Southampton under 6.5 corners	74.2%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Southampton under 5.5 corners	63.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Southampton over 3.5 corners	62.5%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Southampton under 4.5 corners	51.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Southampton over 4.5 corners	48.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Southampton under 3.5 corners	37.5%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Southampton over 5.5 corners	36.1%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Southampton over 6.5 corners	25.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Southampton under 2.5 corners	23.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton under 3.5 goals	88.7%	87.3%	94.8%	0.92×	1.15
Southampton over 0.5 goals	83.9%	82.2%	77.6%	1.06×	1.22
Southampton under 2.5 goals	72.4%	74.2%	83.9%	0.89×	1.35
Southampton over 1.5 goals	54.5%	53.2%	40.6%	1.31×	1.88
Southampton under 1.5 goals	45.5%	46.8%	59.4%	0.79×	2.14
Southampton over 2.5 goals	27.6%	25.8%	16.1%	1.60×	3.88
Southampton under 0.5 goals	16.1%	17.8%	22.4%	0.79×	5.63
Southampton over 3.5 goals	11.3%	12.7%	5.2%	2.46×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton under 1.5 in 1st half	81.4%	83.7%	—	—	1.19
Southampton over 0.5 in 1st half	54.4%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Southampton under 0.5 in 1st half	45.6%	49.6%	—	—	2.02
Southampton over 1.5 in 1st half	18.6%	16.3%	—	—	6.15

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton scores more in 2nd half	40.8%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Southampton scores equally in both	32.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Southampton scores more in 1st half	27.0%	27.8%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	52.9%	51.4%	48.7%	1.06×	1.95
Burnley (home no bet)	47.1%	48.6%	51.3%	0.95×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton even goals	51.3%	50.7%	50.5%	1.00×	1.97
Southampton odd goals	48.7%	49.3%	49.5%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.0%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
HT 1-0	22.3%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	13.1%	11.0%	—	—	9.10
HT 1-1	10.6%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 2-0	8.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.44
Any other HT score	5.6%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
HT 2-1	4.1%	2.4%	—	—	41.94
HT 0-2	3.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.01
HT 1-2	2.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.05
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.15

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton at HT / Southampton at FT	32.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Draw at HT / Southampton at FT	16.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Burnley at HT / Burnley at FT	11.9%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Draw at HT / Burnley at FT	8.8%	6.1%	—	—	16.39
Southampton at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.1%	—	—	16.49
Burnley at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.79
Burnley at HT / Southampton at FT	2.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.86
Southampton at HT / Burnley at FT	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.90

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to score last	57.5%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
Burnley to score last	36.1%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
No goal scored	6.4%	7.4%	—	—	13.51

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.6%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Southampton to lead by 1 at any time	67.2%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	51.6%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Burnley to lead by 1 at any time	42.3%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Southampton to lead by 2 at any time	37.1%	34.7%	—	—	2.89
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.7%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Southampton to lead by 3 at any time	16.5%	14.9%	—	—	6.72
Burnley to lead by 2 at any time	14.8%	10.6%	—	—	9.47
Burnley to lead by 3 at any time	4.2%	1.6%	—	—	60.93

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton most corners	63.3%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Burnley most corners	26.0%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Corners level	10.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.4%	87.4%	88.8%	0.98×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.8%	78.7%	72.8%	1.08×	1.27
1-4 goals	75.5%	78.7%	83.3%	0.94×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.9%	72.4%	70.2%	1.03×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.9%	63.3%	64.7%	0.98×	1.58
1-3 goals	58.8%	59.1%	69.1%	0.86×	1.69
3-6 goals	54.0%	53.2%	47.2%	1.13×	1.88
3-5 goals	49.1%	48.5%	44.5%	1.09×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.2%	48.5%	50.5%	0.96×	2.06
3-4 goals	39.1%	39.2%	39.1%	1.00×	2.55
1-2 goals	36.4%	39.2%	44.4%	0.88×	2.55
4-6 goals	31.6%	35.2%	22.4%	1.57×	2.84
4-5 goals	26.7%	30.2%	19.8%	1.53×	3.31
5-6 goals	14.9%	14.8%	8.2%	1.82×	6.75
7+ goals	3.2%	2.6%	1.4%	1.88×	39.11

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton never behind	51.4%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Burnley never behind	26.4%	29.9%	—	—	3.34

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.3%	50.9%	49.4%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	52.7%	49.1%	50.6%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.6%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.4%	48.2%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.4%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.6%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	93.6%	92.3%	92.7%	1.00×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	91.8%	92.3%	96.0%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	81.9%	82.3%	90.6%	0.91×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	81.1%	82.3%	74.1%	1.11×	1.22
Under 3.5 goals	65.2%	66.3%	76.3%	0.87×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	57.2%	58.6%	48.4%	1.21×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	42.8%	41.4%	51.6%	0.80×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	34.8%	33.7%	23.7%	1.42×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	18.9%	17.7%	25.9%	0.68×	5.65
Over 4.5 goals	18.1%	17.7%	9.4%	1.88×	5.66
Over 5.5 goals	8.2%	7.7%	4.0%	1.93×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	6.4%	7.7%	7.3%	1.06×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.6%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.9%	92.4%	95.8%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	78.2%	75.9%	89.0%	0.85×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	75.2%	75.9%	65.1%	1.16×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	55.1%	55.7%	68.5%	0.81×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	44.9%	44.3%	31.5%	1.41×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	24.8%	24.1%	34.9%	0.69×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	21.8%	24.1%	11.0%	2.19×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.1%	7.6%	4.2%	1.80×	13.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.4%	2.8%	1.4%	2.01×	35.57

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.9%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.0%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	64.3%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.7%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.0%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.1%	11.0%	—	—	9.09

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.9%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	74.8%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	52.2%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	47.8%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	25.2%	22.3%	—	—	4.48
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.1%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley not to score in both halves	81.5%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Southampton not to score in both halves	64.8%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Southampton to score in both halves	35.2%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Burnley to score in both halves	18.5%	15.8%	—	—	6.31

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	58.7%	58.7%	54.4%	1.08×	1.70
Only Southampton scores	25.1%	26.0%	23.3%	1.12×	3.85
Only Burnley scores	9.7%	7.1%	15.2%	0.47×	14.01
Neither team scores	6.4%	7.1%	7.3%	0.97×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.8%	22.6%	25.7%	0.88×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.7%	17.5%	14.4%	1.22×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	12.6%	12.1%	18.7%	0.65×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	10.0%	7.6%	5.5%	1.38×	13.13
6 or more goals	8.2%	7.6%	4.0%	1.91×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	6.4%	7.6%	7.3%	1.04×	13.15

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.4%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	29.0%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
2 goals in 1st half	22.6%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	13.1%	10.9%	—	—	9.17

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	52.2%	51.4%	—	—	1.94
1 goal in 2nd half	29.7%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
No goals in 2nd half	18.1%	16.7%	—	—	5.99

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley not to win both halves	95.2%	97.1%	—	—	1.03
Southampton not to win both halves	82.7%	83.8%	—	—	1.19
Southampton to win both halves	17.3%	16.2%	—	—	6.18
Burnley to win both halves	4.8%	2.9%	—	—	35.07

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to win either half	65.2%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Burnley to win neither half	61.6%	64.9%	—	—	1.54
Burnley to win either half	38.4%	35.1%	—	—	2.85
Southampton to win neither half	34.8%	32.4%	—	—	3.09

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley not to win to nil	90.3%	92.1%	84.8%	1.09×	1.09
Southampton not to win to nil	74.9%	75.4%	76.7%	0.98×	1.33
Southampton to win to nil	25.1%	24.6%	23.3%	1.06×	4.06
Burnley to win to nil	9.7%	7.9%	15.2%	0.52×	12.58

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.5%	27.9%	27.6%	1.01×	3.59
Southampton by 1	21.9%	24.1%	24.2%	1.00×	4.15
Southampton by 2	16.2%	17.0%	11.3%	1.51×	5.87
Southampton by 3+	13.7%	11.8%	8.1%	1.46×	8.51
Burnley by 1	13.4%	11.8%	17.4%	0.67×	8.51
Burnley by 2	6.5%	7.2%	8.6%	0.84×	13.91
Burnley by 3+	2.9%	2.7%	3.2%	0.84×	36.84