Southampton v Liverpool — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 24 November 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 27
On target
5 – 11
Shots in box
5 – 17
xG per shot
0.28 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
1.47 – 1.57
Goals − xG
+0.02 – -0.19
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Southampton win
11.2%
Draw
14.8%
Liverpool win
74.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Southampton have scored 6 from 7.4 expected and conceded 18 from 18.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLDLLDLL last 10
scored 6
from 7.4 xG
conceded 18
from 18.4 xG
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.03–2.79 | 1-2 9% | 73% | 60% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Southampton 1.98 xGLiverpool 3.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Southampton attacking right
Liverpool attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Southampton |
Mateus Fernandes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Taylor Harwood-Bellis |
| 5' |
 Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 8' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 14' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 24' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 26' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 27' |
Liverpool |
Curtis Jones | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 28' |
Liverpool |
Conor Bradley | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 29' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 32' |
Southampton |
Flynn Downes | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tyler Dibling |
| 41' |
Southampton |
Adam Armstrong | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 41' |
Southampton |
Adam Armstrong | 0.57 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 43' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 43' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Liverpool |
Curtis Jones | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Southampton |
Tyler Dibling | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Fraser |
| 54' |
Liverpool |
Darwin Núñez | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 55' |
Southampton |
Mateus Fernandes | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Adam Armstrong |
| 63' |
Liverpool |
Conor Bradley | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 64' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.25 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 66' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 67' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.67 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 70' |
Liverpool |
Conor Bradley | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 70' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Darwin Núñez |
| 73' |
Liverpool |
Darwin Núñez | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 73' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 82' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 84' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 87' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 92' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 94' |
Southampton |
Jack Stephens | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Mateus Fernandes |
Players
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah AMR | 90 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 1.67 | 0.04 | 1.01 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.67 | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| Conor Bradley DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.41 |
| Darwin Núñez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.36 |
| Andrew Robertson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.51 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Caoimhin Kelleher GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cody Gakpo AML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.27 | 0.61 |
| Curtis Jones DMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Luis Díaz Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| Alexis Mac Allister Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| Wataru Endo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Southampton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateus Fernandes MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.07 | 0.47 |
| Jack Stephens DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Flynn Downes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Tyler Dibling MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.48 |
| Taylor Harwood-Bellis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Alex McCarthy GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kyle Walker-Peters DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Armstrong ML | 83 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.33 | 0.45 | 0.47 |
| Ryan Fraser DL | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.50 |
| Paul Onuachu FW | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joe Ayodele-Aribo Sub | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Lallana MC | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Chimuanya Ugochukwu Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cameron Archer Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yukinari Sugawara Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |