Southampton v Middlesbrough — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 27 November 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Southampton

20:00 UTC

Middlesbrough

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 897h before kick-off

Southampton win

51.1%

model 51.0%

Draw

26.7%

model 25.4%

Middlesbrough win

22.2%

model 23.6%

512722

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.9%
2-1 9.7%
2-0 8.1%
1-0 7.6%
1-2 6.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	58.3%	Under 2.5	41.7%
BTTS yes	59.9%	BTTS no	40.1%
Southampton 1+	84.0%	Southampton 2+	54.7%
Middlesbrough 1+	69.8%	Middlesbrough 2+	33.6%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.20. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

43/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Southampton over 1.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 41%

52.7% fair odds 1.90

moderate signal · 884 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Southampton not to win both halves

Win both halves

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 590 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Southampton carry the stronger rating, 1628 Elo against 1516.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Southampton have an estimated 51.1% win probability, against 26.7% for the draw and 22.2% for Middlesbrough. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.83 for Southampton and 1.20 for Middlesbrough.

Why Southampton

Southampton carry the stronger rating, 1628 Elo against 1516. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.7%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Middlesbrough can win

Nothing in the data singles out Middlesbrough.

Key players

Southampton's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mateus Fernandes (0.20), Paul Onuachu (0.20), Cameron Archer (0.17).

Availability

2 of Southampton's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Middlesbrough, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Southampton: 57% possession, 16.8 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces. Middlesbrough: 64% possession, 16.6 shots a match, 9.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Southampton are the model's most likely outcome at 51.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9%. Confidence 43/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Southampton have scored 6 from 7.4 expected and conceded 18 from 18.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LDLLDLLDLL last 10 scored 6 from 7.4 xG conceded 18 from 18.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	512524	1.83–1.20	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	452728	1.65–1.26	1-1 13%	56%	59%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to win	45.1%	47.3%	43.4%	1.09×	2.11
Middlesbrough to win	28.0%	27.9%	29.1%	0.96×	3.58
Draw	26.9%	27.9%	27.6%	1.01×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton & both teams score	23.6%	21.8%	20.2%	1.08×	4.58
Southampton & not both score	21.5%	21.8%	23.3%	0.94×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	20.1%	21.8%	20.4%	1.07×	4.59
Middlesbrough & both teams score	15.6%	18.0%	13.9%	1.29×	5.57
Middlesbrough & not both score	12.4%	13.3%	15.2%	0.87×	7.54
Draw & not both score	6.8%	8.3%	7.3%	1.14×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton & over 1.5	37.5%	34.9%	32.5%	1.08×	2.87
Southampton & over 2.5	30.1%	30.8%	26.4%	1.16×	3.25
Southampton & under 3.5	28.4%	26.1%	32.4%	0.81×	3.84
Middlesbrough & over 1.5	22.5%	21.6%	21.4%	1.01×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	20.1%	21.6%	20.4%	1.06×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	19.5%	18.0%	21.8%	0.83×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	19.5%	18.0%	21.8%	0.83×	5.56
Middlesbrough & under 3.5	18.8%	18.0%	22.3%	0.81×	5.56
Middlesbrough & over 2.5	18.2%	18.0%	16.2%	1.11×	5.56
Southampton & over 3.5	16.7%	18.0%	11.1%	1.62×	5.56
Southampton & under 2.5	15.0%	12.8%	17.1%	0.75×	7.79
Middlesbrough & under 2.5	9.8%	7.9%	12.9%	0.61×	12.63
Middlesbrough & over 3.5	9.2%	7.9%	6.8%	1.17×	12.63
Southampton & under 1.5	7.6%	7.9%	11.0%	0.72×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.5%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.5%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.8%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63
Middlesbrough & under 1.5	5.5%	7.9%	7.7%	1.02×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (1UP)	61.9%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Middlesbrough (1UP)	47.3%	43.9%	—	—	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (2UP)	45.1%	49.9%	—	—	2.00
Middlesbrough (2UP)	28.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.96

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to win 2nd half	37.7%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
2nd half drawn	34.8%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
Middlesbrough to win 2nd half	27.5%	25.8%	—	—	3.88

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough under 1.5 in 2nd half	82.4%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Middlesbrough over 0.5 in 2nd half	53.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Middlesbrough under 0.5 in 2nd half	46.8%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Middlesbrough over 1.5 in 2nd half	17.6%	15.7%	—	—	6.39

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton under 1.5 in 2nd half	75.7%	75.4%	—	—	1.33
Southampton over 0.5 in 2nd half	61.0%	63.1%	—	—	1.58
Southampton under 0.5 in 2nd half	39.0%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
Southampton over 1.5 in 2nd half	24.3%	24.6%	—	—	4.06

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (+2.5)	89.8%	88.5%	91.9%	0.96×	1.13
Middlesbrough (+1.5)	75.7%	78.5%	80.7%	0.97×	1.27
Southampton (+0.5)	72.0%	73.6%	70.9%	1.04×	1.36
Middlesbrough (+0.5)	54.9%	52.4%	56.6%	0.93×	1.91
Southampton (-0.5)	45.1%	47.6%	43.4%	1.10×	2.10
Middlesbrough (-0.5)	28.0%	26.4%	29.1%	0.91×	3.80
Southampton (-1.5)	24.3%	21.5%	19.3%	1.12×	4.65
Southampton (-2.5)	10.2%	11.5%	8.1%	1.43×	8.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to concede	80.8%	81.5%	77.6%	1.05×	1.23
Middlesbrough clean sheet	19.2%	18.5%	22.4%	0.83×	5.40

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to concede in 1st half	50.8%	50.5%	—	—	1.98
Middlesbrough clean sheet in 1st half	49.2%	49.5%	—	—	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to concede in 2nd half	61.0%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Middlesbrough clean sheet in 2nd half	39.0%	38.4%	—	—	2.60

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough over 2.5 corners	85.9%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Middlesbrough over 3.5 corners	75.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Middlesbrough over 4.5 corners	63.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Middlesbrough under 6.5 corners	58.6%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Middlesbrough over 5.5 corners	52.2%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Middlesbrough under 5.5 corners	47.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Middlesbrough over 6.5 corners	41.4%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Middlesbrough under 4.5 corners	36.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Middlesbrough under 3.5 corners	24.5%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Middlesbrough under 2.5 corners	14.1%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough under 3.5 goals	96.0%	97.5%	97.8%	1.00×	1.03
Middlesbrough under 2.5 goals	86.5%	87.8%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
Middlesbrough over 0.5 goals	71.7%	71.9%	69.5%	1.03×	1.39
Middlesbrough under 1.5 goals	64.0%	63.2%	70.0%	0.90×	1.58
Middlesbrough over 1.5 goals	36.0%	36.8%	30.0%	1.23×	2.72
Middlesbrough under 0.5 goals	28.3%	28.1%	30.5%	0.92×	3.56
Middlesbrough over 2.5 goals	13.5%	12.2%	9.4%	1.29×	8.20
Middlesbrough over 3.5 goals	4.0%	2.5%	2.2%	1.14×	39.83

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough under 1.5 in 1st half	90.8%	93.8%	—	—	1.07
Middlesbrough under 0.5 in 1st half	60.3%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Middlesbrough over 0.5 in 1st half	39.7%	36.6%	—	—	2.74
Middlesbrough over 1.5 in 1st half	9.2%	6.2%	—	—	16.22

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough scores equally in both	40.2%	43.3%	—	—	2.31
Middlesbrough scores more in 2nd half	37.8%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Middlesbrough scores more in 1st half	22.1%	22.0%	—	—	4.55

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (away no bet)	62.6%	61.9%	61.1%	1.01×	1.62
Draw (away no bet)	37.4%	38.1%	38.9%	0.98×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough even goals	54.0%	52.6%	52.4%	1.00×	1.90
Middlesbrough odd goals	46.0%	47.4%	47.6%	1.00×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.6%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.4%	17.3%	—	—	5.79

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	68.3%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	31.7%	31.5%	—	—	3.17

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	59.3%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Southampton to score 2+ in a row	40.1%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Middlesbrough to score 2+ in a row	26.6%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row	22.0%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Southampton to score 3+ in a row	15.0%	12.1%	—	—	8.26
Middlesbrough to score 3+ in a row	7.4%	5.6%	—	—	17.95

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough corners (+3.5)	80.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Middlesbrough corners (+2.5)	74.3%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Southampton corners (+3.5)	73.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Middlesbrough corners (+1.5)	67.0%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Southampton corners (+2.5)	66.2%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Southampton corners (+1.5)	58.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Middlesbrough corners (-1.5)	41.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Middlesbrough corners (-2.5)	33.8%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Southampton corners (-1.5)	33.0%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Middlesbrough corners (-3.5)	26.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Southampton corners (-2.5)	25.7%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Southampton corners (-3.5)	19.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.94

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	49.0%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
0-8 corners	26.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
9-11 corners	24.4%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	80.6%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	73.4%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 9.5 corners	65.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	58.8%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	57.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 11.5 corners	51.0%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 11.5 corners	49.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 10.5 corners	42.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 12.5 corners	41.2%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 9.5 corners	34.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 8.5 corners	26.6%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	19.4%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.7%	11.5%	14.5%	0.79×	8.72
2-1	9.3%	7.4%	11.5%	0.65×	13.50
0-0	6.8%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
1-0	7.6%	7.4%	11.0%	0.67×	13.50
1-2	7.2%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.51
2-0	7.4%	7.4%	6.1%	1.21×	13.50
0-1	5.5%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.51
2-2	5.9%	7.4%	5.2%	1.43×	13.51
3-1	5.1%	7.4%	4.3%	1.71×	13.51
0-2	4.3%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	58.29
0-3	1.8%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.31
0-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.4%	4.04×	58.32
1-3	3.0%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.30
1-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.6%	2.88×	58.31
2-3	2.5%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
2-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.31
3-0	4.1%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.30
3-2	3.2%	1.7%	1.8%	0.96×	58.30
3-3	1.4%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.31
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.32
4-0	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
4-1	2.1%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.31
4-2	1.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.24×	58.31
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.2%	10.09×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.1%	20.18×	58.32
Any other score	3.6%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (2nd half DNB)	57.8%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
Middlesbrough (2nd half DNB)	42.2%	40.4%	—	—	2.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton leading at HT (DNB)	61.1%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Middlesbrough leading at HT (DNB)	38.9%	34.5%	—	—	2.89

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or Middlesbrough (12)	73.1%	72.1%	72.4%	1.00×	1.39
Southampton or draw (1X)	72.0%	72.1%	70.9%	1.02×	1.39
Middlesbrough or draw (X2)	54.9%	52.7%	56.6%	0.93×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or draw at HT	77.3%	79.1%	—	—	1.27
Middlesbrough or draw at HT	64.4%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Southampton or Middlesbrough at HT	58.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or draw (1UP)	72.0%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Middlesbrough or draw (1UP)	54.9%	58.9%	—	—	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or draw in 2nd half	72.5%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Southampton or Middlesbrough in 2nd half	65.2%	65.6%	—	—	1.52
Middlesbrough or draw in 2nd half	62.3%	63.9%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.5%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	39.5%	38.7%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (DNB)	61.7%	62.7%	59.9%	1.05×	1.60
Middlesbrough (DNB)	38.3%	37.3%	40.1%	0.93×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to score first	52.8%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Middlesbrough to score first	40.4%	41.6%	—	—	2.41
No goal scored	6.8%	7.4%	—	—	13.45

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	59.3%	55.0%	54.4%	1.01×	1.82
Not both teams to score	40.7%	45.0%	45.6%	0.99×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	46.7%	44.3%	39.9%	1.11×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	31.6%	34.5%	37.1%	0.93×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	12.7%	12.4%	14.5%	0.85×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	9.1%	8.3%	8.6%	0.97×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	82.3%	82.6%	89.0%	0.93×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	17.7%	17.4%	11.0%	1.59×	5.74

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	67.1%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	32.9%	32.7%	—	—	3.06

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	53.3%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Both score 2nd half only	26.3%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Both score 1st half only	13.9%	10.7%	—	—	9.34
Both score in both halves	6.5%	6.8%	—	—	14.74

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.6%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.4%	18.7%	—	—	5.34

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	58.1%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
A half without a goal	41.9%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.8%	47.2%	50.5%	0.94×	2.12
4-6 goals	30.4%	30.7%	22.4%	1.37×	3.26
0-1 goals	19.9%	20.3%	25.9%	0.78×	4.94
7+ goals	2.9%	1.8%	1.4%	1.36×	54.21

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to score exactly 1	35.7%	35.9%	39.6%	0.91×	2.78
Middlesbrough to score exactly 0	28.3%	27.4%	30.5%	0.90×	3.65
Middlesbrough to score exactly 2	22.6%	22.3%	20.6%	1.08×	4.49
Middlesbrough to score 3+	13.5%	12.9%	9.4%	1.37×	7.76

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to score exactly 1	31.7%	32.5%	37.0%	0.88×	3.07
Southampton to score exactly 2	26.2%	26.5%	24.6%	1.08×	3.77
Southampton to score 3+	23.0%	23.3%	16.1%	1.44×	4.29
Southampton to score exactly 0	19.2%	18.8%	22.4%	0.84×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Southampton leading at HT	35.6%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
Middlesbrough leading at HT	22.7%	20.9%	—	—	4.78

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton -1: 2	54.9%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Southampton -1: 1	24.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Southampton -1: X	20.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (0:1)	54.9%	51.3%	56.6%	0.91×	1.95
Southampton (0:1)	24.3%	24.2%	19.3%	1.26×	4.13
Draw (0:1)	20.8%	24.2%	24.2%	1.00×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (0:2)	75.7%	79.3%	80.7%	0.98×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	14.1%	11.0%	11.3%	0.97×	9.09
Southampton (0:2)	10.2%	11.0%	8.1%	1.36×	9.11

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (0:3)	89.8%	90.7%	91.9%	0.99×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	6.7%	5.8%	4.8%	1.22×	17.22
Southampton (0:3)	3.5%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	42.04

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (0:4)	96.5%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.5%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	81.82
Southampton (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	81.99

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (1:0)	72.0%	72.4%	70.9%	1.02×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	15.6%	17.1%	17.4%	0.98×	5.85
Middlesbrough (1:0)	12.4%	12.7%	11.7%	1.08×	7.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (2:0)	87.6%	88.5%	88.3%	1.00×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.2%	6.4%	8.6%	0.74×	15.68
Middlesbrough (2:0)	4.1%	2.3%	3.2%	0.71×	43.57

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.6%	48.8%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	26.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	25.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to concede	71.7%	73.2%	69.5%	1.05×	1.37
Southampton clean sheet	28.3%	26.8%	30.5%	0.88×	3.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton clean sheet in 1st half	60.3%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Southampton to concede in 1st half	39.7%	36.6%	—	—	2.73

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to concede in 2nd half	53.2%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Southampton clean sheet in 2nd half	46.8%	47.3%	—	—	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton over 2.5 corners	82.5%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Southampton over 3.5 corners	70.6%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Southampton under 6.5 corners	65.2%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Southampton over 4.5 corners	57.9%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Southampton under 5.5 corners	54.3%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Southampton over 5.5 corners	45.7%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Southampton under 4.5 corners	42.1%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Southampton over 6.5 corners	34.8%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Southampton under 3.5 corners	29.4%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Southampton under 2.5 corners	17.5%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton under 3.5 goals	91.4%	92.2%	94.8%	0.97×	1.08
Southampton over 0.5 goals	80.8%	82.2%	77.6%	1.06×	1.22
Southampton under 2.5 goals	77.0%	77.7%	83.9%	0.93×	1.29
Southampton under 1.5 goals	50.9%	53.2%	59.4%	0.90×	1.88
Southampton over 1.5 goals	49.1%	46.8%	40.6%	1.15×	2.14
Southampton over 2.5 goals	23.0%	22.3%	16.1%	1.38×	4.49
Southampton under 0.5 goals	19.2%	17.8%	22.4%	0.79×	5.62
Southampton over 3.5 goals	8.6%	7.8%	5.2%	1.50×	12.87

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton under 1.5 in 1st half	84.1%	83.8%	—	—	1.19
Southampton over 0.5 in 1st half	50.8%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
Southampton under 0.5 in 1st half	49.2%	49.7%	—	—	2.01
Southampton over 1.5 in 1st half	15.9%	16.2%	—	—	6.18

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton scores more in 2nd half	39.4%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Southampton scores equally in both	34.3%	33.0%	—	—	3.03
Southampton scores more in 1st half	26.3%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (home no bet)	51.0%	51.4%	51.3%	1.00×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	49.0%	48.6%	48.7%	1.00×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton even goals	51.8%	50.7%	50.5%	1.00×	1.97
Southampton odd goals	48.2%	49.3%	49.5%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.57
HT 1-0	20.8%	24.4%	—	—	4.10
HT 0-1	14.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.05
HT 1-1	10.9%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 2-0	7.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.48
Any other HT score	5.0%	2.4%	—	—	41.95
HT 0-2	3.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.03
HT 2-1	3.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.03
HT 1-2	2.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.10
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.22

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton at HT / Southampton at FT	27.4%	27.2%	—	—	3.67
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.0%	16.7%	—	—	5.99
Draw at HT / Southampton at FT	15.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Middlesbrough at HT / Middlesbrough at FT	14.9%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Middlesbrough at FT	10.7%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
Southampton at HT / Draw at FT	5.8%	6.0%	—	—	16.66
Middlesbrough at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.69
Middlesbrough at HT / Southampton at FT	2.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.67
Southampton at HT / Middlesbrough at FT	2.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.68

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to score last	52.9%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Middlesbrough to score last	40.3%	39.9%	—	—	2.51
No goal scored	6.8%	7.4%	—	—	13.45

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.2%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Southampton to lead by 1 at any time	61.9%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	49.4%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Middlesbrough to lead by 1 at any time	47.3%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Southampton to lead by 2 at any time	31.3%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.4%	15.0%	—	—	6.68
Middlesbrough to lead by 2 at any time	18.4%	15.0%	—	—	6.68
Southampton to lead by 3 at any time	12.7%	10.5%	—	—	9.56
Middlesbrough to lead by 3 at any time	5.7%	6.7%	—	—	14.98

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough most corners	50.3%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Southampton most corners	41.1%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	8.6%	8.4%	—	—	11.97

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.7%	87.4%	88.8%	0.98×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.2%	78.7%	72.8%	1.08×	1.27
1-4 goals	76.2%	78.7%	83.3%	0.94×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.6%	72.4%	70.2%	1.03×	1.38
2-4 goals	63.1%	63.3%	64.7%	0.98×	1.58
1-3 goals	59.9%	59.1%	69.1%	0.86×	1.69
3-6 goals	52.8%	53.2%	47.2%	1.13×	1.88
3-5 goals	48.2%	48.5%	44.5%	1.09×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.8%	48.5%	50.5%	0.96×	2.06
3-4 goals	38.7%	39.2%	39.1%	1.00×	2.55
1-2 goals	37.5%	39.2%	44.4%	0.88×	2.55
4-6 goals	30.4%	35.2%	22.4%	1.57×	2.84
4-5 goals	25.8%	30.2%	19.8%	1.53×	3.31
5-6 goals	14.1%	14.8%	8.2%	1.82×	6.75
7+ goals	2.9%	2.6%	1.4%	1.88×	39.09

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton never behind	46.0%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Middlesbrough never behind	31.3%	36.2%	—	—	2.77

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.1%	50.9%	49.4%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	52.9%	49.1%	50.6%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.9%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.1%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.6%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.4%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	93.2%	92.3%	92.7%	1.00×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.4%	92.3%	96.0%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	82.9%	82.3%	90.6%	0.91×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	80.1%	82.3%	74.1%	1.11×	1.22
Under 3.5 goals	66.6%	66.3%	76.3%	0.87×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	55.7%	58.6%	48.4%	1.21×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	44.3%	41.4%	51.6%	0.80×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	33.4%	33.7%	23.7%	1.42×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	19.9%	17.7%	25.9%	0.68×	5.65
Over 4.5 goals	17.1%	17.7%	9.4%	1.88×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	7.6%	7.7%	4.0%	1.94×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	6.8%	7.7%	7.3%	1.06×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.9%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.7%	92.4%	95.8%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	79.6%	75.9%	89.0%	0.85×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	73.7%	72.4%	65.1%	1.11×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	57.0%	55.8%	68.5%	0.81×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	43.0%	44.2%	31.5%	1.40×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	26.3%	27.6%	34.9%	0.79×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	20.4%	24.1%	11.0%	2.19×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.3%	7.6%	4.2%	1.80×	13.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.1%	2.8%	1.4%	2.01×	35.57

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.6%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.1%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.5%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.5%	31.6%	—	—	3.16
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.9%	28.2%	—	—	3.54
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.4%	10.8%	—	—	9.25

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.3%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.7%	79.3%	—	—	1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	51.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	48.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.3%	20.7%	—	—	4.84
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.94

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough not to score in both halves	78.9%	78.5%	—	—	1.27
Southampton not to score in both halves	69.0%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Southampton to score in both halves	31.0%	30.1%	—	—	3.33
Middlesbrough to score in both halves	21.1%	21.5%	—	—	4.65

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	59.3%	58.7%	54.4%	1.08×	1.71
Only Southampton scores	21.5%	22.2%	23.3%	0.96×	4.50
Only Middlesbrough scores	12.4%	11.0%	15.2%	0.73×	9.06
Neither team scores	6.8%	7.1%	7.3%	0.97×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.4%	22.6%	25.7%	0.88×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.3%	17.5%	14.4%	1.22×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	13.1%	12.1%	18.7%	0.65×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	9.5%	7.6%	5.5%	1.38×	13.13
6 or more goals	7.6%	7.6%	4.0%	1.91×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	6.8%	7.6%	7.3%	1.04×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.6%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	29.9%	28.3%	—	—	3.53
2 goals in 1st half	22.1%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	12.4%	10.7%	—	—	9.32

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	51.1%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	30.1%	33.7%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	18.7%	16.5%	—	—	6.06

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough not to win both halves	93.6%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Southampton not to win both halves	86.3%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Southampton to win both halves	13.7%	12.2%	—	—	8.22
Middlesbrough to win both halves	6.4%	5.9%	—	—	17.06

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to win either half	59.6%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Middlesbrough to win neither half	56.2%	59.0%	—	—	1.69
Middlesbrough to win either half	43.8%	41.0%	—	—	2.44
Southampton to win neither half	40.4%	40.9%	—	—	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough not to win to nil	87.6%	88.1%	84.8%	1.04×	1.14
Southampton not to win to nil	78.5%	78.1%	76.7%	1.02×	1.28
Southampton to win to nil	21.5%	21.9%	23.3%	0.94×	4.57
Middlesbrough to win to nil	12.4%	11.9%	15.2%	0.78×	8.41

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.9%	27.9%	27.6%	1.01×	3.59
Southampton by 1	20.8%	24.1%	24.2%	1.00×	4.15
Middlesbrough by 1	15.6%	17.0%	17.4%	0.98×	5.87
Southampton by 2	14.1%	11.8%	11.3%	1.04×	8.50
Southampton by 3+	10.2%	11.7%	8.1%	1.46×	8.51
Middlesbrough by 2	8.2%	7.2%	8.6%	0.84×	13.90
Middlesbrough by 3+	4.1%	2.7%	3.2%	0.84×	36.78