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Southampton v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 24 August 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425

Premier League xG

Shots
5 – 23
On target
1 – 8
Shots in box
1 – 14
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 1.57
Goals − xG
-0.21 – -1.92
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.62.53.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Morgan Gibbs-White 69' — goal
Southampton 0.21 xGNottingham Forest 2.92 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Chris Wood 5' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Neco Williams 6' — Saved Shot (0.32 xG, Open Play)Kyle Walker-Peters 11' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Yukinari Sugawara 12' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Chris Wood 15' — Saved Shot (0.39 xG, Open Play)Adam Armstrong 21' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ibrahim Sangare 24' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Nikola Milenkovic 24' — Blocked Shot (0.18 xG, From Corner)Morgan Gibbs-White 25' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Nikola Milenkovic 25' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Chris Wood 33' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Neco Williams 33' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Nikola Milenkovic 33' — Missed Shot (0.62 xG, From Corner)Neco Williams 34' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Kyle Walker-Peters 37' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Neco Williams 44' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Kyle Walker-Peters 56' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Elliot Anderson 60' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Elliot Anderson 60' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Anthony Elanga 62' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Morgan Gibbs-White 69' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Morgan Gibbs-White 69' — Goal (0.51 xG, From Corner)Neco Williams 69' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Anthony Elanga 73' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Callum Hudson-Odoi 77' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Nicolás Domínguez 77' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Morgan Gibbs-White 82' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ryan Yates 82' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
Southampton attacking right Nottingham Forest attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' Nottingham Forest Chris Wood 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Anthony Elanga
6' Nottingham Forest Neco Williams 0.32 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Callum Hudson-Odoi
11' Southampton Kyle Walker-Peters 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Ben Brereton Díaz
12' Southampton Yukinari Sugawara 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
15' Nottingham Forest Chris Wood 0.39 Open Play Saved Shot Ola Aina
21' Southampton Adam Armstrong 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Ben Brereton Díaz
24' Nottingham Forest Ibrahim Sangare 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Nikola Milenkovic
24' Nottingham Forest Nikola Milenkovic 0.18 From Corner Blocked Shot Anthony Elanga
25' Nottingham Forest Morgan Gibbs-White 0.08 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
25' Nottingham Forest Nikola Milenkovic 0.07 From Corner Missed Shot Anthony Elanga
33' Nottingham Forest Chris Wood 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Murillo
33' Nottingham Forest Neco Williams 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
33' Nottingham Forest Nikola Milenkovic 0.62 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Chris Wood
34' Nottingham Forest Neco Williams 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Morgan Gibbs-White
37' Southampton Kyle Walker-Peters 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jan Bednarek
44' Nottingham Forest Neco Williams 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Elliot Anderson
56' Southampton Kyle Walker-Peters 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Flynn Downes
60' Nottingham Forest Elliot Anderson 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Callum Hudson-Odoi
60' Nottingham Forest Elliot Anderson 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
62' Nottingham Forest Anthony Elanga 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Morgan Gibbs-White
69' Nottingham Forest Morgan Gibbs-White 0.05 From Corner Blocked Shot Callum Hudson-Odoi
69' Nottingham Forest Morgan Gibbs-White 0.51 From Corner Right Foot Goal
69' Nottingham Forest Neco Williams 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
73' Nottingham Forest Anthony Elanga 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ryan Yates
77' Nottingham Forest Callum Hudson-Odoi 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Morgan Gibbs-White
77' Nottingham Forest Nicolás Domínguez 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
82' Nottingham Forest Morgan Gibbs-White 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Nicolás Domínguez
82' Nottingham Forest Ryan Yates 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Callum Hudson-Odoi

Players

Nottingham Forest

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Nikola Milenkovic DC 90 0 0 3 1 0.87 0.02 0.02
Morgan Gibbs-White AMC 90 1 0 4 3 0.65 0.20 0.25
Neco Williams DR 90 0 0 5 0 0.45 0.00 0.47
Anthony Elanga AMR 90 0 0 2 3 0.22 0.33 0.38
Callum Hudson-Odoi AML 90 0 0 1 4 0.05 0.43 0.83
Ola Aina DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.39 0.60
Murillo DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.02
Matz Sels GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Chris Wood FW 77 0 0 3 1 0.51 0.62 0.47
Elliot Anderson DMC 76 0 0 2 1 0.05 0.02 0.39
Ibrahim Sangare DMC 67 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.35
Ryan Yates Sub 23 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.12 0.20
Nicolás Domínguez Sub 14 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.02 0.10
Taiwo Awoniyi Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Jota Silva Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Willy Boly Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Southampton

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Kyle Walker-Peters DML 90 0 0 3 0 0.16 0.00 0.19
Jan Bednarek DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.08
Alex McCarthy GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Ben Brereton Díaz FW 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.08 0.08
Jack Stephens DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Flynn Downes MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.11
William Smallbone MC 85 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Taylor Harwood-Bellis DC 77 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Joe Ayodele-Aribo MC 77 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Adam Armstrong FW 73 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Yukinari Sugawara DMR 73 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.03
Samuel Edozie Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cameron Archer Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Charlie Taylor Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mateus Fernandes Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tyler Dibling Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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