Sparta Rotterdam v AZ Alkmaar — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 November 2026 · NED-Eredivisie · 2627

Eredivisie results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Sparta Rotterdam

20:00 UTC

AZ Alkmaar

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 681h before kick-off

Sparta Rotterdam win

22.2%

model 20.1%

Draw

22.2%

model 23.4%

AZ Alkmaar win

55.6%

model 56.4%

222256

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.8%
1-2 9.9%
0-2 8.5%
0-1 7.4%
1-3 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	61.5%	Under 2.5	38.5%
BTTS yes	60.5%	BTTS no	39.5%
Sparta Rotterdam 1+	68.4%	Sparta Rotterdam 2+	32.0%
AZ Alkmaar 1+	86.8%	AZ Alkmaar 2+	60.0%

Expected goals 1.15 – 2.02. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

75/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

93%

★ Best pick

AZ Alkmaar (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 30%

57.0% fair odds 1.75

strong signal · 1154 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

AZ Alkmaar not to win both halves

Win both halves

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 588 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger rating, 1662 Elo against 1469.
Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

AZ Alkmaar have an estimated 55.6% win probability, against 22.2% for the draw and 22.2% for Sparta Rotterdam. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.15 for Sparta Rotterdam and 2.02 for AZ Alkmaar.

Why Sparta Rotterdam

Nothing in the data singles out Sparta Rotterdam.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why AZ Alkmaar can win

AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger rating, 1662 Elo against 1469. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Sparta Rotterdam, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for AZ Alkmaar, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Sparta Rotterdam: 49% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. AZ Alkmaar: 59% possession, 20.8 shots a match, 8.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

AZ Alkmaar are the model's most likely outcome at 55.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.8%. Confidence 75/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	202356	1.15–2.02	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	242749	1.14–1.70	1-1 13%	54%	57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to win	49.2%	47.4%	30.1%	1.57×	2.11
Draw	26.5%	27.9%	25.6%	1.09×	3.59
Sparta Rotterdam to win	24.3%	24.5%	44.4%	0.55×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar & not both score	24.9%	21.8%	13.1%	1.67×	4.58
AZ Alkmaar & both teams score	24.3%	21.8%	17.2%	1.27×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	19.4%	18.0%	22.2%	0.81×	5.56
Sparta Rotterdam & both teams score	13.1%	13.3%	21.2%	0.63×	7.54
Sparta Rotterdam & not both score	11.2%	13.3%	23.4%	0.57×	7.54
Draw & not both score	7.1%	8.3%	3.5%	2.38×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar & over 1.5	40.5%	40.2%	26.2%	1.54×	2.49
AZ Alkmaar & over 2.5	32.0%	30.8%	20.4%	1.51×	3.25
AZ Alkmaar & under 3.5	31.6%	30.8%	19.9%	1.54×	3.25
Draw & under 2.5	19.7%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	19.7%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.56
Sparta Rotterdam & over 1.5	18.9%	18.0%	36.2%	0.50×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	19.4%	18.0%	22.2%	0.81×	5.56
AZ Alkmaar & over 3.5	17.6%	18.0%	10.4%	1.74×	5.56
Sparta Rotterdam & under 3.5	17.1%	18.0%	27.5%	0.65×	5.56
AZ Alkmaar & under 2.5	17.2%	18.0%	9.9%	1.82×	5.56
Sparta Rotterdam & over 2.5	15.1%	18.0%	28.9%	0.62×	5.56
Sparta Rotterdam & under 2.5	9.2%	7.9%	15.7%	0.51×	12.63
AZ Alkmaar & under 1.5	8.7%	7.9%	4.1%	1.93×	12.63
Sparta Rotterdam & over 3.5	7.2%	7.9%	17.0%	0.46×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	7.1%	7.9%	3.5%	2.26×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.8%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.8%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.63
Sparta Rotterdam & under 1.5	5.4%	7.9%	8.4%	0.95×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (1UP)	64.7%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
Sparta Rotterdam (1UP)	43.2%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (2UP)	49.2%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Sparta Rotterdam (2UP)	24.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to win 2nd half	43.1%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
2nd half drawn	34.4%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
Sparta Rotterdam to win 2nd half	22.4%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar under 1.5 in 2nd half	72.9%	75.4%	—	—	1.33
AZ Alkmaar over 0.5 in 2nd half	63.9%	60.3%	—	—	1.66
AZ Alkmaar under 0.5 in 2nd half	36.1%	39.7%	—	—	2.52
AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 in 2nd half	27.1%	24.6%	—	—	4.06

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.2%	88.2%	—	—	1.13
Sparta Rotterdam under 0.5 in 2nd half	52.3%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Sparta Rotterdam over 0.5 in 2nd half	47.7%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
Sparta Rotterdam over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.8%	11.8%	—	—	8.50

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (+2.5)	97.0%	96.3%	86.8%	1.11×	1.04
AZ Alkmaar (+1.5)	90.0%	92.1%	74.7%	1.23×	1.09
AZ Alkmaar (+0.5)	75.7%	78.5%	55.6%	1.41×	1.27
Sparta Rotterdam (+0.5)	50.8%	52.4%	69.9%	0.75×	1.91
AZ Alkmaar (-0.5)	49.2%	47.6%	30.1%	1.58×	2.10
Sparta Rotterdam (-0.5)	24.3%	21.5%	44.4%	0.48×	4.65
Sparta Rotterdam (-1.5)	10.0%	7.9%	25.3%	0.31×	12.66
Sparta Rotterdam (-2.5)	3.0%	3.7%	13.2%	0.28×	27.11

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to concede	68.0%	72.4%	83.6%	0.87×	1.38
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet	32.0%	27.6%	16.4%	1.68×	3.62

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet in 1st half	61.3%	64.8%	—	—	1.54
AZ Alkmaar to concede in 1st half	38.7%	35.2%	—	—	2.84

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet in 2nd half	52.3%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
AZ Alkmaar to concede in 2nd half	47.7%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar over 2.5 corners	92.7%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
AZ Alkmaar over 3.5 corners	85.0%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
AZ Alkmaar over 4.5 corners	74.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
AZ Alkmaar over 5.5 corners	63.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
AZ Alkmaar over 6.5 corners	51.0%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
AZ Alkmaar under 6.5 corners	49.1%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
AZ Alkmaar under 5.5 corners	37.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
AZ Alkmaar under 4.5 corners	25.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
AZ Alkmaar under 3.5 corners	15.0%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
AZ Alkmaar under 2.5 corners	7.3%	10.1%	—	—	9.90

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar under 3.5 goals	90.7%	92.3%	94.4%	0.98×	1.08
AZ Alkmaar over 0.5 goals	81.7%	81.5%	73.2%	1.11×	1.23
AZ Alkmaar under 2.5 goals	75.8%	76.2%	84.9%	0.90×	1.31
AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 goals	50.6%	53.5%	41.9%	1.28×	1.87
AZ Alkmaar under 1.5 goals	49.4%	46.5%	58.1%	0.80×	2.15
AZ Alkmaar over 2.5 goals	24.2%	23.8%	15.1%	1.58×	4.21
AZ Alkmaar under 0.5 goals	18.3%	18.5%	26.8%	0.69×	5.39
AZ Alkmaar over 3.5 goals	9.3%	7.7%	5.6%	1.36×	13.04

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar under 1.5 in 1st half	85.1%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
AZ Alkmaar under 0.5 in 1st half	50.7%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
AZ Alkmaar over 0.5 in 1st half	49.3%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 in 1st half	14.9%	11.0%	—	—	9.13

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar scores more in 2nd half	42.8%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
AZ Alkmaar scores equally in both	33.3%	33.4%	—	—	2.99
AZ Alkmaar scores more in 1st half	23.9%	22.1%	—	—	4.52

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	52.2%	51.7%	36.5%	1.42×	1.94
Sparta Rotterdam (away no bet)	47.8%	48.3%	63.5%	0.76×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar even goals	51.7%	52.6%	57.4%	0.92×	1.90
AZ Alkmaar odd goals	48.3%	47.4%	42.6%	1.11×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	83.8%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	16.2%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	66.7%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	33.3%	31.6%	—	—	3.16

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	58.3%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
AZ Alkmaar to score 2+ in a row	42.2%	38.7%	—	—	2.58
Sparta Rotterdam to score 2+ in a row	22.7%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.9%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
AZ Alkmaar to score 3+ in a row	16.5%	16.2%	—	—	6.16
Sparta Rotterdam to score 3+ in a row	5.7%	5.5%	—	—	18.10

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar corners (+3.5)	92.6%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
AZ Alkmaar corners (+2.5)	88.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
AZ Alkmaar corners (+1.5)	82.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Sparta Rotterdam corners (+3.5)	61.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
AZ Alkmaar corners (-1.5)	57.9%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Sparta Rotterdam corners (+2.5)	51.8%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
AZ Alkmaar corners (-2.5)	48.2%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Sparta Rotterdam corners (+1.5)	42.1%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
AZ Alkmaar corners (-3.5)	38.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Sparta Rotterdam corners (-1.5)	17.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Sparta Rotterdam corners (-2.5)	11.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Sparta Rotterdam corners (-3.5)	7.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	46.6%	41.8%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	27.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
0-8 corners	25.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	82.3%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	74.4%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 9.5 corners	65.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	62.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 10.5 corners	56.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 11.5 corners	53.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 11.5 corners	46.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 10.5 corners	44.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 12.5 corners	37.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 9.5 corners	34.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 8.5 corners	25.6%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	17.7%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.6%	11.5%	11.7%	0.98×	8.72
0-1	8.7%	7.4%	4.1%	1.80×	13.51
0-2	8.5%	7.4%	5.9%	1.25×	13.51
1-2	9.6%	7.4%	8.1%	0.92×	13.50
0-0	7.1%	7.4%	3.5%	2.11×	13.51
1-0	5.4%	7.4%	8.4%	0.88×	13.51
1-3	5.4%	7.4%	2.6%	2.86×	13.51
2-1	6.5%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.51
2-2	5.5%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.51
0-3	4.8%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.29
0-4	2.0%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.31
1-4	2.3%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.31
2-0	3.8%	1.7%	7.5%	0.23×	58.30
2-3	3.1%	1.7%	2.4%	0.70×	58.30
2-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.76×	58.31
3-0	1.4%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.31
3-1	2.4%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.31
3-2	2.1%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.31
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.31
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.82×	58.32
4-0	0.4%	1.7%	1.8%	0.94×	58.32
4-1	0.7%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.32
4-2	0.6%	1.7%	1.2%	1.41×	58.32
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.6%	2.82×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	11.27×	58.32
Any other score	3.5%	1.7%	6.5%	0.26×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (2nd half DNB)	65.8%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Sparta Rotterdam (2nd half DNB)	34.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar leading at HT (DNB)	60.6%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Sparta Rotterdam leading at HT (DNB)	39.4%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar or draw (X2)	75.7%	75.5%	55.6%	1.36×	1.32
Sparta Rotterdam or AZ Alkmaar (12)	73.5%	72.1%	74.4%	0.97×	1.39
Sparta Rotterdam or draw (1X)	50.8%	52.6%	69.9%	0.75×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar or draw at HT	77.4%	79.3%	—	—	1.26
Sparta Rotterdam or draw at HT	65.3%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Sparta Rotterdam or AZ Alkmaar at HT	57.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar or draw (1UP)	75.7%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
Sparta Rotterdam or draw (1UP)	50.8%	58.6%	—	—	1.71

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar or draw in 2nd half	77.6%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Sparta Rotterdam or AZ Alkmaar in 2nd half	65.6%	65.6%	—	—	1.52
Sparta Rotterdam or draw in 2nd half	56.9%	57.9%	—	—	1.73

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.1%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	38.9%	38.5%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (DNB)	67.0%	67.4%	40.4%	1.67×	1.49
Sparta Rotterdam (DNB)	33.0%	32.6%	59.6%	0.55×	3.06

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to score first	55.6%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Sparta Rotterdam to score first	37.3%	32.7%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	7.1%	7.4%	—	—	13.43

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.8%	55.0%	60.3%	0.91×	1.82
Not both teams to score	43.2%	45.0%	39.7%	1.13×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.2%	41.6%	48.7%	0.85×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	33.5%	34.5%	28.8%	1.20×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	12.6%	12.4%	11.7%	1.05×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	9.7%	8.3%	11.1%	0.75×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.1%	82.6%	80.4%	1.03×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	15.9%	17.4%	19.6%	0.89×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.1%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.9%	32.5%	—	—	3.08

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	55.6%	59.8%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	25.1%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Both score 1st half only	13.5%	10.8%	—	—	9.30
Both score in both halves	5.8%	6.8%	—	—	14.77

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.7%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	19.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.96

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	56.5%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	43.5%	42.8%	—	—	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.1%	47.2%	46.7%	1.01×	2.12
4-6 goals	29.0%	26.6%	33.8%	0.79×	3.76
0-1 goals	21.3%	22.9%	15.7%	1.46×	4.37
7+ goals	2.6%	1.8%	4.1%	0.45×	54.24

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to score exactly 1	31.1%	33.8%	31.5%	1.07×	2.96
AZ Alkmaar to score exactly 2	26.4%	27.4%	26.9%	1.02×	3.66
AZ Alkmaar to score 3+	24.2%	22.3%	15.1%	1.48×	4.48
AZ Alkmaar to score exactly 0	18.3%	19.6%	26.8%	0.73×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.6%	33.2%	1.07×	2.81
Sparta Rotterdam to score exactly 0	32.0%	32.6%	16.4%	1.98×	3.07
Sparta Rotterdam to score exactly 2	20.8%	23.3%	26.9%	0.87×	4.29
Sparta Rotterdam to score 3+	10.7%	14.3%	23.7%	0.60×	7.00

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
AZ Alkmaar leading at HT	34.7%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Sparta Rotterdam leading at HT	22.6%	20.7%	—	—	4.82

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar -1: 1	50.8%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
AZ Alkmaar -1: 2	27.2%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
AZ Alkmaar -1: X	22.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (0:1)	75.7%	73.7%	55.6%	1.33×	1.36
Draw (0:1)	14.3%	13.7%	19.3%	0.71×	7.28
Sparta Rotterdam (0:1)	10.0%	9.3%	25.3%	0.37×	10.76

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (0:2)	90.0%	90.7%	74.7%	1.21×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	6.9%	7.7%	12.2%	0.63×	13.05
Sparta Rotterdam (0:2)	3.0%	3.7%	13.2%	0.28×	26.70

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (0:3)	97.0%	96.6%	86.8%	1.11×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.3%	2.4%	7.8%	0.31×	42.11
Sparta Rotterdam (0:3)	0.8%	2.4%	5.6%	0.42×	42.18

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (0:4)	99.2%	98.1%	94.4%	1.04×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	2.6%	0.47×	82.04
Sparta Rotterdam (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	3.2%	0.38×	82.09

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam (1:0)	50.8%	53.9%	69.9%	0.77×	1.86
AZ Alkmaar (1:0)	27.2%	25.0%	15.5%	1.61×	3.99
Draw (1:0)	22.0%	21.7%	14.8%	1.47×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam (2:0)	72.8%	76.6%	84.5%	0.91×	1.31
Draw (2:0)	15.4%	15.8%	8.8%	1.79×	6.35
AZ Alkmaar (2:0)	11.8%	10.3%	6.8%	1.50×	9.73

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.0%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
Halves equal	26.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
1st half highest scoring	25.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam to concede	81.7%	80.9%	73.2%	1.10×	1.24
Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet	18.3%	19.1%	26.8%	0.71×	5.22

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet in 1st half	50.7%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Sparta Rotterdam to concede in 1st half	49.3%	44.4%	—	—	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam to concede in 2nd half	63.9%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet in 2nd half	36.1%	40.0%	—	—	2.50

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam under 6.5 corners	79.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Sparta Rotterdam over 2.5 corners	77.2%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Sparta Rotterdam under 5.5 corners	68.7%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Sparta Rotterdam over 3.5 corners	61.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Sparta Rotterdam under 4.5 corners	54.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Sparta Rotterdam over 4.5 corners	45.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Sparta Rotterdam under 3.5 corners	38.7%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Sparta Rotterdam over 5.5 corners	31.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Sparta Rotterdam under 2.5 corners	22.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Sparta Rotterdam over 6.5 corners	20.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam under 3.5 goals	97.1%	96.4%	89.2%	1.08×	1.04
Sparta Rotterdam under 2.5 goals	89.3%	87.3%	76.3%	1.14×	1.15
Sparta Rotterdam under 1.5 goals	68.5%	68.0%	49.5%	1.37×	1.47
Sparta Rotterdam over 0.5 goals	68.0%	68.0%	83.6%	0.81×	1.47
Sparta Rotterdam under 0.5 goals	32.0%	32.0%	16.4%	1.95×	3.12
Sparta Rotterdam over 1.5 goals	31.5%	32.0%	50.5%	0.63×	3.12
Sparta Rotterdam over 2.5 goals	10.7%	12.7%	23.7%	0.54×	7.86
Sparta Rotterdam over 3.5 goals	2.9%	3.6%	10.8%	0.34×	27.54

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam under 1.5 in 1st half	91.3%	94.6%	—	—	1.06
Sparta Rotterdam under 0.5 in 1st half	61.3%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
Sparta Rotterdam over 0.5 in 1st half	38.7%	35.4%	—	—	2.82
Sparta Rotterdam over 1.5 in 1st half	8.7%	5.4%	—	—	18.63

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam scores equally in both	43.1%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Sparta Rotterdam scores more in 2nd half	33.6%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Sparta Rotterdam scores more in 1st half	23.3%	21.3%	—	—	4.70

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (home no bet)	65.0%	60.1%	54.1%	1.11×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	35.0%	39.9%	45.9%	0.87×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam even goals	55.1%	55.2%	51.0%	1.08×	1.81
Sparta Rotterdam odd goals	44.9%	44.8%	49.0%	0.91×	2.23

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.3%	33.1%	—	—	3.02
HT 0-1	20.9%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 1-0	15.0%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 1-1	10.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 0-2	7.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.47
Any other HT score	4.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.00
HT 2-0	3.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.05
HT 1-2	3.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.07
HT 2-1	2.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.13
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.24

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar at HT / AZ Alkmaar at FT	28.2%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Draw at HT / AZ Alkmaar at FT	17.7%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.1%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Sparta Rotterdam at HT / Sparta Rotterdam at FT	13.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Sparta Rotterdam at FT	9.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.57
Sparta Rotterdam at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.0%	—	—	16.66
AZ Alkmaar at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.61
Sparta Rotterdam at HT / AZ Alkmaar at FT	3.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.67
AZ Alkmaar at HT / Sparta Rotterdam at FT	1.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.73

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to score last	55.7%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Sparta Rotterdam to score last	37.2%	38.7%	—	—	2.58
No goal scored	7.1%	7.4%	—	—	13.43

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.9%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
AZ Alkmaar to lead by 1 at any time	64.7%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	49.0%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Sparta Rotterdam to lead by 1 at any time	43.2%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
AZ Alkmaar to lead by 2 at any time	34.0%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.6%	15.0%	—	—	6.69
Sparta Rotterdam to lead by 2 at any time	15.3%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
AZ Alkmaar to lead by 3 at any time	14.3%	10.5%	—	—	9.53
Sparta Rotterdam to lead by 3 at any time	4.3%	1.7%	—	—	60.55

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar most corners	67.3%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Sparta Rotterdam most corners	24.3%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Corners level	8.5%	8.4%	—	—	11.97

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.1%	87.4%	87.5%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.1%	78.7%	75.8%	1.04×	1.27
2-6 goals	76.2%	78.7%	80.4%	0.98×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.9%	72.4%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
2-4 goals	63.0%	63.3%	63.6%	1.00×	1.58
1-3 goals	61.3%	63.3%	58.9%	1.08×	1.58
3-6 goals	51.3%	53.2%	55.7%	0.95×	1.88
2-3 goals	47.1%	48.5%	46.7%	1.04×	2.06
3-5 goals	47.1%	48.5%	50.7%	0.96×	2.06
1-2 goals	39.0%	39.2%	37.0%	1.06×	2.55
3-4 goals	38.1%	39.2%	39.0%	1.01×	2.55
4-6 goals	29.0%	30.2%	33.8%	0.89×	3.31
4-5 goals	24.8%	24.5%	28.8%	0.85×	4.08
5-6 goals	13.2%	14.8%	16.9%	0.88×	6.75
7+ goals	2.6%	2.6%	4.1%	0.62×	39.11

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar never behind	49.7%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Sparta Rotterdam never behind	28.2%	30.0%	—	—	3.33

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.3%	50.9%	48.9%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	52.7%	49.1%	51.1%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.3%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	44.7%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.6%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.4%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	93.2%	92.3%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.9%	92.3%	96.5%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.2%	82.3%	79.1%	1.04×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	78.7%	77.3%	84.3%	0.92×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	68.4%	66.3%	62.3%	1.07×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	53.9%	52.5%	59.7%	0.88×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	46.1%	47.5%	40.3%	1.18×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	31.6%	33.7%	37.7%	0.89×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	21.3%	22.7%	15.7%	1.45×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	15.8%	17.7%	20.9%	0.85×	5.65
Under 0.5 goals	7.1%	7.7%	3.5%	2.21×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	6.8%	7.7%	9.1%	0.85×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.3%	97.2%	95.7%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.5%	92.4%	89.7%	1.03×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	81.2%	81.1%	74.9%	1.08×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	71.7%	72.4%	79.2%	0.91×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	59.3%	55.8%	51.7%	1.08×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	40.7%	44.2%	48.3%	0.91×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	28.3%	27.6%	20.8%	1.33×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	18.8%	18.9%	25.1%	0.75×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.5%	7.6%	10.3%	0.73×	13.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.7%	2.8%	4.3%	0.65×	35.58

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.6%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.7%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.2%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.8%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.3%	31.4%	—	—	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.4%	10.8%	—	—	9.27

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.7%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	76.6%	79.1%	—	—	1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.1%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	49.9%	47.1%	—	—	2.12
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	23.4%	20.9%	—	—	4.79
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam not to score in both halves	81.5%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
AZ Alkmaar not to score in both halves	68.5%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
AZ Alkmaar to score in both halves	31.5%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Sparta Rotterdam to score in both halves	18.5%	15.7%	—	—	6.35

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	56.8%	58.6%	60.3%	0.97×	1.71
Only AZ Alkmaar scores	24.9%	22.3%	13.1%	1.70×	4.49
Only Sparta Rotterdam scores	11.2%	11.0%	23.4%	0.47×	9.07
Neither team scores	7.1%	7.1%	3.5%	2.03×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.8%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	22.1%	1.02×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	15.8%	17.5%	17.0%	1.02×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	14.1%	12.1%	12.3%	0.98×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	9.0%	7.6%	11.9%	0.64×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	7.1%	7.6%	3.5%	2.17×	13.14
6 or more goals	6.8%	7.6%	9.1%	0.83×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.9%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	31.3%	35.8%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	21.4%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	11.4%	10.7%	—	—	9.35

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	50.1%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
1 goal in 2nd half	30.6%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	19.3%	16.5%	—	—	6.06

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam not to win both halves	94.8%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
AZ Alkmaar not to win both halves	84.8%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
AZ Alkmaar to win both halves	15.2%	16.1%	—	—	6.23
Sparta Rotterdam to win both halves	5.2%	5.8%	—	—	17.14

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to win either half	62.6%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
Sparta Rotterdam to win neither half	60.2%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Sparta Rotterdam to win either half	39.8%	35.0%	—	—	2.86
AZ Alkmaar to win neither half	37.4%	34.9%	—	—	2.87

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam not to win to nil	88.8%	88.1%	76.6%	1.15×	1.14
AZ Alkmaar not to win to nil	75.1%	78.1%	86.9%	0.90×	1.28
AZ Alkmaar to win to nil	24.9%	21.9%	13.1%	1.67×	4.57
Sparta Rotterdam to win to nil	11.2%	11.9%	23.4%	0.51×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.5%	27.9%	25.6%	1.09×	3.59
AZ Alkmaar by 1	22.0%	24.1%	14.8%	1.63×	4.15
AZ Alkmaar by 2	15.4%	17.0%	8.8%	1.93×	5.87
Sparta Rotterdam by 1	14.3%	11.8%	19.3%	0.61×	8.50
AZ Alkmaar by 3+	11.8%	11.8%	6.8%	1.72×	8.51
Sparta Rotterdam by 2	6.9%	7.2%	12.2%	0.59×	13.91
Sparta Rotterdam by 3+	3.0%	2.7%	13.2%	0.21×	36.81