Spartak Moscow v Rubin Kazan — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 18 October 2026 · RUS-Premier League · 2627
RUS-Premier League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (2,277 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-0 12.3%
- 1-1 12.2%
- 2-0 11.5%
- 2-1 9.6%
- 0-0 8.9%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 47.0% | Under 2.5 | 53.0% |
| BTTS yes | 47.5% | BTTS no | 52.5% |
| Spartak Moscow 1+ | 82.2% | Spartak Moscow 2+ | 51.4% |
| Rubin Kazan 1+ | 56.4% | Rubin Kazan 2+ | 20.2% |
Expected goals 1.72 – 0.83. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Spartak Moscow carry the stronger rating, 1658 Elo against 1553.
- Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Spartak Moscow have an estimated 55.9% win probability, against 26.2% for the draw and 17.9% for Rubin Kazan. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.72 for Spartak Moscow and 0.83 for Rubin Kazan.
Why Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow carry the stronger rating, 1658 Elo against 1553. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 26.2%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.
Why Rubin Kazan can win
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Spartak Moscow, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Rubin Kazan, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Spartak Moscow: 63% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 10.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Rubin Kazan: 50% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Spartak Moscow are the model's most likely outcome at 55.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 12.3%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.61–0.84 | 1-1 13% | 44% | 47% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.