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Sport Boys v UTC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · PER-Liga 1 · 2627

PER-Liga 1 results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Sport Boys win
65.5%
model 64.6%
Draw
23.3%
model 20.8%
UTC win
11.2%
model 14.7%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 14.0%
  2. 2-0 12.8%
  3. 1-1 9.8%
  4. 2-1 9.5%
  5. 3-0 8.0%

Goals

Over 2.548.8% Under 2.551.2%
BTTS yes44.2% BTTS no55.8%
Sport Boys 1+84.7% Sport Boys 2+55.9%
UTC 1+52.7% UTC 2+17.3%

Expected goals 1.88 – 0.75. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
84/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Sport Boys (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 50%
63.8% fair odds 1.57
strong signal · 1134 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
UTC (0:3)
Handicap 0:3 · usually 89%
84.4% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 296 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Sport Boys carry the stronger rating, 1515 Elo against 1319.
  • Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Sport Boys have an estimated 65.5% win probability, against 23.3% for the draw and 11.2% for UTC. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.88 for Sport Boys and 0.75 for UTC.

Why Sport Boys

Sport Boys carry the stronger rating, 1515 Elo against 1319. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.3%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why UTC can win

Nothing in the data singles out UTC.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Sport Boys, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for UTC, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Sport Boys: 49% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 10.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. UTC: 48% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 21.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Sport Boys are the model's most likely outcome at 65.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 14.0%. Confidence 84/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.88–0.75 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.90–0.65 1-0 15% 47% 40%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys to win 67.6% 64.8% 49.8% 1.30× 1.54
Draw 20.1% 24.5% 25.0% 0.98× 4.09
UTC to win 12.3% 13.4% 25.4% 0.53× 7.44
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys & not both score 44.7% 40.2% 26.4% 1.52× 2.49
Sport Boys & both teams score 22.9% 21.8% 23.6% 0.93× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 12.7% 13.3% 17.4% 0.76× 7.54
UTC & not both score 7.5% 8.3% 12.3% 0.68× 12.00
Draw & not both score 7.4% 8.3% 7.8% 1.07× 12.00
UTC & both teams score 4.8% 4.9% 13.2% 0.37× 20.47
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys & over 1.5 52.4% 48.9% 38.0% 1.28× 2.05
Sport Boys & under 3.5 47.3% 45.1% 33.7% 1.34× 2.22
Sport Boys & over 2.5 38.4% 34.9% 30.8% 1.13× 2.87
Sport Boys & under 2.5 29.2% 26.1% 19.2% 1.36× 3.84
Sport Boys & over 3.5 20.3% 21.6% 16.3% 1.33× 4.63
Draw & under 2.5 16.6% 18.0% 18.8% 0.96× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 16.6% 18.0% 18.8% 0.96× 5.56
Sport Boys & under 1.5 15.2% 18.0% 12.0% 1.51× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 12.7% 12.8% 17.4% 0.74× 7.79
UTC & under 3.5 10.6% 12.8% 19.4% 0.66× 7.79
Draw & under 1.5 7.4% 7.9% 7.8% 1.02× 12.63
UTC & over 1.5 6.9% 7.9% 17.4% 0.46× 12.63
UTC & under 2.5 7.1% 7.9% 11.1% 0.72× 12.63
UTC & under 1.5 5.4% 7.9% 8.2% 0.97× 12.63
UTC & over 2.5 5.2% 7.9% 14.5% 0.55× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 3.4% 4.8% 6.3% 0.76× 20.82
Draw & over 3.5 3.4% 4.8% 6.3% 0.76× 20.82
UTC & over 3.5 1.7% 4.8% 6.2% 0.78× 20.83
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys (1UP) 76.2% 78.2% — — 1.28
UTC (1UP) 26.3% 26.4% — — 3.79
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys (2UP) 67.6% 68.1% — — 1.47
UTC (2UP) 12.3% 13.8% — — 7.23
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys to win 2nd half 53.2% 52.1% — — 1.92
2nd half drawn 33.4% 34.0% — — 2.94
UTC to win 2nd half 13.4% 11.2% — — 8.89
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC under 1.5 in 2nd half 94.1% 92.0% — — 1.09
UTC under 0.5 in 2nd half 67.6% 69.6% — — 1.44
UTC over 0.5 in 2nd half 32.4% 30.4% — — 3.29
UTC over 1.5 in 2nd half 5.9% 8.0% — — 12.44
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys under 1.5 in 2nd half 70.5% 74.3% — — 1.35
Sport Boys over 0.5 in 2nd half 66.2% 70.6% — — 1.42
Sport Boys under 0.5 in 2nd half 33.8% 29.4% — — 3.41
Sport Boys over 1.5 in 2nd half 29.5% 25.7% — — 3.89
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys (+0.5) 87.7% 88.5% 74.6% 1.19× 1.13
UTC (+2.5) 79.7% 78.5% 88.6% 0.89× 1.27
Sport Boys (-0.5) 67.6% 68.7% 49.8% 1.38× 1.46
UTC (+1.5) 58.9% 57.1% 75.4% 0.76× 1.75
Sport Boys (-1.5) 41.1% 42.9% 24.6% 1.74× 2.33
UTC (+0.5) 32.4% 31.3% 50.2% 0.62× 3.19
Sport Boys (-2.5) 20.3% 21.5% 11.4% 1.88× 4.65
UTC (-0.5) 12.3% 11.5% 25.4% 0.45× 8.67
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC to concede 85.1% 86.2% 80.1% 1.08× 1.16
UTC clean sheet 14.9% 13.8% 19.9% 0.69× 7.26
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC to concede in 1st half 55.9% 56.4% — — 1.77
UTC clean sheet in 1st half 44.1% 43.6% — — 2.29
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC to concede in 2nd half 66.2% 65.5% — — 1.53
UTC clean sheet in 2nd half 33.8% 34.5% — — 2.90
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC under 6.5 corners 87.0% 85.2% — — 1.17
UTC under 5.5 corners 78.1% 76.0% — — 1.32
UTC over 2.5 corners 69.0% 67.6% — — 1.48
UTC under 4.5 corners 65.4% 67.6% — — 1.48
UTC over 3.5 corners 50.9% 53.1% — — 1.88
UTC under 3.5 corners 49.1% 46.9% — — 2.13
UTC over 4.5 corners 34.6% 32.4% — — 3.09
UTC under 2.5 corners 31.0% 32.4% — — 3.09
UTC over 5.5 corners 21.9% 24.0% — — 4.18
UTC over 6.5 corners 13.0% 14.8% — — 6.77
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC under 3.5 goals 99.5% 97.5% 97.5% 1.00× 1.03
UTC under 2.5 goals 97.1% 97.5% 92.0% 1.06× 1.03
UTC under 1.5 goals 86.0% 87.8% 71.6% 1.23× 1.14
UTC under 0.5 goals 52.0% 53.5% 34.1% 1.57× 1.87
UTC over 0.5 goals 48.0% 46.5% 65.9% 0.70× 2.15
UTC over 1.5 goals 14.0% 12.2% 28.4% 0.43× 8.19
UTC over 2.5 goals 2.9% 2.5% 8.0% 0.32× 39.82
UTC over 3.5 goals 0.5% 2.5% 2.5% 0.99× 39.95
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC under 1.5 in 1st half 97.1% 96.2% — — 1.04
UTC under 0.5 in 1st half 77.0% 75.0% — — 1.33
UTC over 0.5 in 1st half 23.0% 25.0% — — 4.00
UTC over 1.5 in 1st half 2.9% 3.8% — — 26.37
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC scores equally in both 57.5% 53.4% — — 1.87
UTC scores more in 2nd half 26.2% 26.4% — — 3.78
UTC scores more in 1st half 16.3% 17.9% — — 5.58
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys (away no bet) 77.1% 73.4% 66.6% 1.10× 1.36
Draw (away no bet) 22.9% 26.6% 33.4% 0.80× 3.76
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC even goals 63.5% 59.1% 56.9% 1.04× 1.69
UTC odd goals 36.5% 40.9% 43.1% 0.95× 2.45
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 87.2% 87.9% — — 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 12.8% 12.1% — — 8.25
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 59.8% 60.7% — — 1.65
Both halves under 1.5 goals 40.2% 39.3% — — 2.54
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 57.4% 54.9% — — 1.82
Sport Boys to score 2+ in a row 51.4% 50.8% — — 1.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row 25.2% 24.9% — — 4.02
Sport Boys to score 3+ in a row 24.0% 19.6% — — 5.11
UTC to score 2+ in a row 9.1% 5.5% — — 18.04
UTC to score 3+ in a row 1.3% 2.5% — — 40.15
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys corners (+3.5) 92.6% 89.6% — — 1.12
Sport Boys corners (+2.5) 87.9% 84.5% — — 1.18
Sport Boys corners (+1.5) 81.3% 79.8% — — 1.25
UTC corners (+3.5) 69.2% 65.9% — — 1.52
UTC corners (+2.5) 59.3% 57.2% — — 1.75
Sport Boys corners (-1.5) 51.6% 52.4% — — 1.91
UTC corners (+1.5) 48.4% 47.6% — — 2.10
Sport Boys corners (-2.5) 40.7% 42.8% — — 2.34
Sport Boys corners (-3.5) 30.8% 34.1% — — 2.93
UTC corners (-1.5) 18.7% 20.2% — — 4.94
UTC corners (-2.5) 12.1% 15.5% — — 6.45
UTC corners (-3.5) 7.4% 10.4% — — 9.60
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 43.1% 38.3% — — 2.61
9-11 corners 29.4% 31.2% — — 3.21
12+ corners 27.6% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 79.7% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 11.5 corners 72.4% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 67.6% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 10.5 corners 63.7% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 56.9% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 53.8% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 9.5 corners 46.2% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 8.5 corners 43.1% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 10.5 corners 36.3% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 7.5 corners 32.4% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 27.6% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 20.3% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 15.2% 13.8% 12.0% 1.15× 7.24
2-0 14.1% 11.5% 7.4% 1.55× 8.71
1-1 9.3% 7.4% 11.2% 0.66× 13.51
2-1 9.2% 7.4% 9.8% 0.76× 13.51
3-0 8.9% 7.4% 5.1% 1.46× 13.51
0-0 7.4% 7.4% 7.8% 0.95× 13.51
0-1 5.4% 7.4% 8.2% 0.91× 13.51
3-1 5.8% 7.4% 5.3% 1.41× 13.51
0-2 1.7% 1.7% 3.1% 0.56× 58.31
0-3 0.4% 1.7% 1.1% 1.58× 58.32
0-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.16× 58.32
1-2 3.1% 1.7% 7.6% 0.23× 58.30
1-3 0.7% 1.7% 2.0% 0.86× 58.32
1-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 58.32
2-2 3.0% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.30
2-3 0.7% 1.7% 2.0% 0.86× 58.32
2-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 58.32
3-2 1.9% 1.7% 3.8% 0.45× 58.31
3-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 58.32
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.7% 2.37× 58.32
4-0 4.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.30
4-1 2.8% 1.7% 2.5% 0.68× 58.30
4-2 0.9% 1.7% 1.1% 1.58× 58.31
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 4.73× 58.32
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 9.47× 58.32
Any other score 4.5% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.29
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys (2nd half DNB) 79.9% 80.1% — — 1.25
UTC (2nd half DNB) 20.1% 19.9% — — 5.02
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys leading at HT (DNB) 80.7% 84.4% — — 1.18
UTC leading at HT (DNB) 19.3% 15.6% — — 6.42
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys or draw (1X) 87.7% 86.6% 74.6% 1.16× 1.16
Sport Boys or UTC (12) 79.9% 75.5% 75.0% 1.01× 1.32
UTC or draw (X2) 32.4% 35.2% 50.2% 0.70× 2.84
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys or draw at HT 88.7% 88.5% — — 1.13
Sport Boys or UTC at HT 58.5% 57.5% — — 1.74
UTC or draw at HT 52.8% 48.6% — — 2.06
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys or draw (1UP) 87.7% 92.1% — — 1.09
UTC or draw (1UP) 32.4% 39.2% — — 2.55
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys or draw in 2nd half 86.6% 88.8% — — 1.13
Sport Boys or UTC in 2nd half 66.6% 66.0% — — 1.52
UTC or draw in 2nd half 46.8% 47.9% — — 2.09
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 61.4% 61.3% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 38.6% 38.7% — — 2.58
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys (DNB) 84.6% 80.5% 66.3% 1.21× 1.24
UTC (DNB) 15.4% 19.5% 33.7% 0.58× 5.12
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys to score first 69.0% 69.3% — — 1.44
UTC to score first 23.7% 23.0% — — 4.35
No goal scored 7.4% 7.6% — — 13.21
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 59.6% 55.0% 46.2% 1.19× 1.82
Both teams to score 40.4% 45.0% 53.8% 0.84× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 43.7% 41.6% 37.7% 1.10× 2.40
Both score & over 2.5 31.2% 34.6% 42.8% 0.81× 2.89
Not both score & over 2.5 15.9% 21.5% 8.7% 2.47× 4.66
Both score & under 2.5 9.3% 8.3% 11.2% 0.74× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 92.1% 89.0% 85.7% 1.04× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 7.9% 11.0% 14.3% 0.77× 9.10
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 78.7% 75.4% — — 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 21.3% 24.6% — — 4.06
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 68.6% 63.7% — — 1.57
Both score 2nd half only 18.6% 15.0% — — 6.68
Both score 1st half only 10.0% 10.7% — — 9.34
Both score in both halves 2.8% 4.9% — — 20.60
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 87.2% 85.0% — — 1.18
Both teams to score by HT 12.8% 15.0% — — 6.65
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 50.8% 52.6% — — 1.90
A half without a goal 49.2% 47.4% — — 2.11
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.6% 47.2% 44.2% 1.07× 2.12
0-1 goals 28.0% 26.6% 27.5% 0.97× 3.76
4-6 goals 23.9% 22.9% 26.8% 0.86× 4.36
7+ goals 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.01× 54.41
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC to score exactly 0 52.0% 47.1% 34.1% 1.38× 2.12
UTC to score exactly 1 34.0% 33.8% 37.7% 0.90× 2.96
UTC to score exactly 2 11.1% 12.9% 20.7% 0.62× 7.77
UTC to score 3+ 2.9% 4.6% 8.0% 0.57× 21.88
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys to score 3+ 29.7% 26.6% 22.5% 1.18× 3.77
Sport Boys to score exactly 1 28.4% 26.6% 33.0% 0.81× 3.77
Sport Boys to score exactly 2 27.0% 26.6% 25.0% 1.06× 3.77
Sport Boys to score exactly 0 14.9% 14.3% 19.9% 0.72× 6.98
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys leading at HT 47.2% 51.4% — — 1.94
Draw at HT 41.5% 42.5% — — 2.35
UTC leading at HT 11.3% 11.5% — — 8.70
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys -1: 1 41.1% 42.7% — — 2.34
Sport Boys -1: 2 32.4% 30.1% — — 3.33
Sport Boys -1: X 26.4% 26.5% — — 3.77
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys (0:1) 41.1% 42.5% 24.6% 1.73× 2.35
UTC (0:1) 32.4% 30.1% 50.2% 0.60× 3.32
Draw (0:1) 26.4% 27.0% 25.4% 1.06× 3.70
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC (0:2) 58.9% 63.4% 75.4% 0.84× 1.58
Draw (0:2) 20.9% 20.3% 13.4% 1.51× 4.94
Sport Boys (0:2) 20.3% 20.2% 11.4% 1.77× 4.94
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC (0:3) 79.7% 80.8% 88.6% 0.91× 1.24
Draw (0:3) 12.1% 9.9% 7.6% 1.30× 10.12
Sport Boys (0:3) 8.2% 5.8% 4.0% 1.46× 17.23
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC (0:4) 91.8% 94.5% 96.0% 0.98× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 5.4% 4.6% 2.5% 1.82× 21.70
Sport Boys (0:4) 2.8% 1.2% 1.6% 0.75× 81.59
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys (1:0) 87.7% 86.1% 74.6% 1.15× 1.16
Draw (1:0) 9.3% 6.9% 17.9% 0.39× 14.46
UTC (1:0) 3.0% 3.3% 7.6% 0.43× 30.66
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys (2:0) 97.0% 96.8% 92.4% 1.05× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 2.5% 2.3% 5.6% 0.41× 43.77
UTC (2:0) 0.6% 2.3% 2.2% 1.05× 43.89
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.6% 48.6% — — 2.06
1st half highest scoring 27.9% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 25.5% 26.2% — — 3.81
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys clean sheet 52.0% 53.1% 34.1% 1.56× 1.88
Sport Boys to concede 48.0% 46.9% 65.9% 0.71× 2.13
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys clean sheet in 1st half 77.0% 77.7% — — 1.29
Sport Boys to concede in 1st half 23.0% 22.3% — — 4.48
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys clean sheet in 2nd half 67.6% 66.8% — — 1.50
Sport Boys to concede in 2nd half 32.4% 33.2% — — 3.01
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys over 2.5 corners 86.2% 86.2% — — 1.16
Sport Boys over 3.5 corners 74.3% 71.9% — — 1.39
Sport Boys under 6.5 corners 65.7% 66.7% — — 1.50
Sport Boys over 4.5 corners 60.5% 62.3% — — 1.61
Sport Boys under 5.5 corners 53.3% 52.6% — — 1.90
Sport Boys over 5.5 corners 46.7% 47.4% — — 2.11
Sport Boys under 4.5 corners 39.5% 37.7% — — 2.65
Sport Boys over 6.5 corners 34.3% 33.3% — — 3.00
Sport Boys under 3.5 corners 25.7% 28.1% — — 3.56
Sport Boys under 2.5 corners 13.8% 13.8% — — 7.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys under 3.5 goals 87.4% 87.3% 92.4% 0.94× 1.15
Sport Boys over 0.5 goals 85.1% 87.3% 80.1% 1.09× 1.15
Sport Boys under 2.5 goals 70.3% 74.2% 77.5% 0.96× 1.35
Sport Boys over 1.5 goals 56.7% 58.6% 47.3% 1.24× 1.71
Sport Boys under 1.5 goals 43.3% 41.4% 52.7% 0.78× 2.42
Sport Boys over 2.5 goals 29.7% 25.8% 22.5% 1.15× 3.88
Sport Boys under 0.5 goals 14.9% 12.7% 19.9% 0.64× 7.84
Sport Boys over 3.5 goals 12.6% 12.7% 7.6% 1.67× 7.85
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys under 1.5 in 1st half 80.2% 83.9% — — 1.19
Sport Boys over 0.5 in 1st half 55.9% 56.2% — — 1.78
Sport Boys under 0.5 in 1st half 44.1% 43.8% — — 2.28
Sport Boys over 1.5 in 1st half 19.8% 16.1% — — 6.22
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys scores more in 2nd half 41.4% 41.6% — — 2.40
Sport Boys scores equally in both 31.4% 33.2% — — 3.01
Sport Boys scores more in 1st half 27.2% 27.8% — — 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 61.9% 60.0% 49.6% 1.21× 1.67
UTC (home no bet) 38.1% 40.0% 50.4% 0.79× 2.50
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys even goals 51.1% 50.7% 50.5% 1.00× 1.97
Sport Boys odd goals 48.9% 49.3% 49.5% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 33.9% 33.6% — — 2.98
HT 1-0 27.9% 28.4% — — 3.52
HT 2-0 11.4% 11.0% — — 9.11
HT 0-1 8.9% 6.9% — — 14.52
HT 1-1 7.2% 6.9% — — 14.55
Any other HT score 5.2% 6.9% — — 14.58
HT 2-1 3.0% 2.4% — — 42.21
HT 0-2 1.2% 2.4% — — 42.33
HT 1-2 0.9% 2.4% — — 42.34
HT 2-2 0.4% 2.4% — — 42.38
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys at HT / Sport Boys at FT 42.9% 41.1% — — 2.44
Draw at HT / Sport Boys at FT 22.3% 21.6% — — 4.63
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 13.4% 12.7% — — 7.89
UTC at HT / UTC at FT 5.8% 6.1% — — 16.52
Draw at HT / UTC at FT 5.8% 6.1% — — 16.53
Sport Boys at HT / Draw at FT 3.5% 3.5% — — 28.89
UTC at HT / Draw at FT 3.1% 3.5% — — 28.91
UTC at HT / Sport Boys at FT 2.3% 3.5% — — 28.94
Sport Boys at HT / UTC at FT 0.7% 3.4% — — 28.99
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys to score last 68.9% 70.4% — — 1.42
UTC to score last 23.8% 25.9% — — 3.87
No goal scored 7.4% 7.6% — — 13.21
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 92.6% 92.5% — — 1.08
Sport Boys to lead by 1 at any time 76.2% 77.9% — — 1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 51.3% 50.6% — — 1.98
Sport Boys to lead by 2 at any time 46.0% 44.3% — — 2.26
UTC to lead by 1 at any time 26.3% 25.3% — — 3.96
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 23.3% 19.5% — — 5.12
Sport Boys to lead by 3 at any time 22.4% 19.5% — — 5.12
UTC to lead by 2 at any time 5.4% 6.6% — — 15.13
UTC to lead by 3 at any time 0.9% 1.6% — — 64.36
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys most corners 62.6% 60.6% — — 1.65
UTC most corners 27.3% 31.1% — — 3.21
Corners level 10.1% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 88.1% 87.4% 87.1% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 81.0% 83.4% 78.1% 1.07× 1.20
2-6 goals 70.5% 72.3% 70.8% 1.02× 1.38
2-5 goals 67.5% 68.8% 67.4% 1.02× 1.45
1-3 goals 67.2% 68.8% 63.9% 1.08× 1.45
2-4 goals 60.4% 63.3% 58.3% 1.09× 1.58
2-3 goals 46.6% 48.4% 44.2% 1.10× 2.06
1-2 goals 45.6% 48.4% 41.1% 1.18× 2.06
3-6 goals 45.5% 48.4% 49.6% 0.98× 2.06
3-5 goals 42.5% 43.6% 46.2% 0.94× 2.29
3-4 goals 35.4% 39.2% 37.1% 1.05× 2.55
4-6 goals 23.9% 24.5% 26.8% 0.91× 4.09
4-5 goals 20.9% 24.4% 23.4% 1.05× 4.09
5-6 goals 10.1% 14.8% 12.7% 1.17× 6.76
7+ goals 1.6% 2.6% 1.8% 1.41× 39.20
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys never behind 66.4% 69.1% — — 1.45
UTC never behind 16.4% 18.2% — — 5.49
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.5% 50.9% 46.7% 1.09× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.5% 49.1% 53.3% 0.92× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.6% 57.8% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 44.4% 42.2% — — 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.3% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.7% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 95.4% 95.4% 94.7% 1.01× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 92.6% 92.3% 92.2% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 88.4% 87.6% 85.7% 1.02× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 74.5% 72.5% 71.6% 1.01× 1.38
Over 1.5 goals 72.0% 72.5% 72.5% 1.00× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 52.9% 52.5% 48.7% 1.08× 1.90
Over 2.5 goals 47.1% 47.5% 51.3% 0.93× 2.11
Under 1.5 goals 28.0% 27.5% 27.5% 1.00× 3.63
Over 3.5 goals 25.5% 27.5% 28.4% 0.97× 3.64
Over 4.5 goals 11.6% 12.4% 14.3% 0.87× 8.07
Under 0.5 goals 7.4% 7.7% 7.8% 0.99× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 4.6% 4.6% 5.3% 0.87× 21.80
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.4% 97.2% 98.1% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 95.1% 97.2% 94.2% 1.03× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 86.5% 86.7% 83.3% 1.04× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 67.5% 67.5% 63.1% 1.07× 1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 62.7% 61.9% 65.1% 0.95× 1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 37.3% 38.1% 34.9% 1.09× 2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 32.5% 32.5% 36.9% 0.88× 3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 13.5% 13.3% 16.7% 0.80× 7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 4.9% 2.8% 5.8% 0.49× 35.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.6% 2.8% 1.9% 1.50× 35.63
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 90.4% 92.7% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 70.7% 71.3% — — 1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half 66.1% 68.5% — — 1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half 33.9% 31.5% — — 3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half 29.3% 28.7% — — 3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half 9.6% 7.3% — — 13.63
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 81.5% 82.9% — — 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 77.3% 79.5% — — 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 56.7% 55.1% — — 1.81
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 43.3% 44.9% — — 2.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 22.7% 20.5% — — 4.88
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 18.5% 17.1% — — 5.86
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC not to score in both halves 92.5% 90.6% — — 1.10
Sport Boys not to score in both halves 63.0% 63.4% — — 1.58
Sport Boys to score in both halves 37.0% 36.6% — — 2.73
UTC to score in both halves 7.5% 9.4% — — 10.64
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Only Sport Boys scores 44.7% 46.6% 26.4% 1.76× 2.15
Both teams score 40.4% 46.6% 53.8% 0.87× 2.15
Only UTC scores 7.5% 7.1% 12.3% 0.58× 14.00
Neither team scores 7.4% 7.1% 7.8% 0.92× 14.00
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 25.0% 22.6% 21.4% 1.06× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 21.6% 22.6% 23.0% 0.98× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 20.6% 22.6% 19.9% 1.13× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 13.8% 12.1% 14.3% 0.85× 8.25
Exactly 0 goals 7.4% 7.6% 7.8% 0.98× 13.14
Exactly 5 goals 7.1% 7.6% 9.2% 0.82× 13.14
6 or more goals 4.6% 4.5% 5.3% 0.85× 22.33
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.8% 37.2% — — 2.69
No goals in 1st half 33.9% 35.8% — — 2.79
2 goals in 1st half 19.7% 15.8% — — 6.33
3+ goals in 1st half 9.6% 7.3% — — 13.63
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 43.3% 44.7% — — 2.24
1 goal in 2nd half 34.0% 34.0% — — 2.94
No goals in 2nd half 22.7% 22.9% — — 4.36
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC not to win both halves 98.5% 97.3% — — 1.03
Sport Boys not to win both halves 75.0% 74.0% — — 1.35
Sport Boys to win both halves 25.0% 26.0% — — 3.85
UTC to win both halves 1.5% 2.7% — — 36.60
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC to win neither half 76.8% 79.6% — — 1.26
Sport Boys to win either half 75.4% 79.4% — — 1.26
Sport Boys to win neither half 24.6% 20.6% — — 4.86
UTC to win either half 23.2% 20.4% — — 4.89
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC not to win to nil 92.5% 92.1% 87.7% 1.05× 1.09
Sport Boys not to win to nil 55.3% 59.0% 73.6% 0.80× 1.70
Sport Boys to win to nil 44.7% 41.0% 26.4% 1.55× 2.44
UTC to win to nil 7.5% 7.9% 12.3% 0.64× 12.65
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys by 1 26.4% 27.9% 25.4% 1.10× 3.59
Sport Boys by 2 20.9% 24.1% 13.4% 1.80× 4.15
Sport Boys by 3+ 20.3% 24.1% 11.4% 2.11× 4.15
Draw 20.1% 24.1% 25.0% 0.96× 4.15
UTC by 1 9.3% 7.2% 17.9% 0.40× 13.90
UTC by 2 2.5% 2.7% 5.6% 0.48× 36.90
UTC by 3+ 0.6% 2.7% 2.2% 1.24× 36.95
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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