Sporting CP v Estoril — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 December 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627

Primeira Liga results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Sporting CP

20:00 UTC

Estoril

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 1,425h before kick-off

Sporting CP win

82.2%

model 79.9%

Draw

10.7%

model 12.5%

Estoril win

7.1%

model 7.6%

82117

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (68 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 11.0%
3-0 10.3%
2-1 8.4%
1-0 8.0%
3-1 7.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	69.6%	Under 2.5	30.4%
BTTS yes	50.2%	BTTS no	49.8%
Sporting CP 1+	94.1%	Sporting CP 2+	77.3%
Estoril 1+	53.6%	Estoril 2+	18.0%

Expected goals 2.83 – 0.77. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Sporting CP (-1.5)

Asian handicap · usually 22%

57.1% fair odds 1.75

strong signal · 1154 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

83.6% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 387 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Sporting CP carry the stronger rating, 1826 Elo against 1417.
Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Sporting CP have an estimated 82.2% win probability, against 10.7% for the draw and 7.1% for Estoril. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.83 for Sporting CP and 0.77 for Estoril.

Why Sporting CP

Sporting CP carry the stronger rating, 1826 Elo against 1417. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 10.7%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Estoril can win

Nothing in the data singles out Estoril.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Sporting CP, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Estoril, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Sporting CP: 54% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 9.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Estoril: 45% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Sporting CP are the model's most likely outcome at 82.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 11.0%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	80128	2.83–0.77	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	84106	3.11–0.74	3-0 11%	74%	50%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to win	83.6%	81.7%	42.1%	1.94×	1.22
Draw	10.4%	13.4%	26.7%	0.50×	7.45
Estoril to win	5.9%	8.0%	31.4%	0.26×	12.44

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP & not both score	45.6%	43.0%	26.0%	1.65×	2.33
Sporting CP & both teams score	38.0%	33.3%	16.2%	2.06×	3.00
Draw & both teams score	8.5%	8.3%	20.3%	0.41×	12.01
Estoril & both teams score	3.4%	4.9%	11.7%	0.41×	20.59
Estoril & not both score	2.5%	4.9%	19.9%	0.24×	20.62
Draw & not both score	2.0%	4.8%	6.5%	0.75×	20.63

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP & over 1.5	76.8%	75.3%	31.4%	2.40×	1.33
Sporting CP & over 2.5	66.5%	67.6%	24.7%	2.74×	1.48
Sporting CP & over 3.5	48.2%	45.1%	13.1%	3.44×	2.22
Sporting CP & under 3.5	35.5%	34.9%	29.1%	1.20×	2.87
Sporting CP & under 2.5	17.1%	18.0%	17.6%	1.02×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	8.5%	7.9%	20.3%	0.39×	12.63
Sporting CP & under 1.5	6.8%	7.9%	10.8%	0.73×	12.63
Draw & under 2.5	6.8%	7.9%	17.3%	0.46×	12.63
Draw & under 3.5	6.8%	7.9%	17.3%	0.46×	12.63
Estoril & over 1.5	4.2%	4.8%	22.5%	0.21×	20.81
Estoril & under 3.5	4.3%	4.8%	25.4%	0.19×	20.81
Draw & over 2.5	3.7%	4.8%	9.6%	0.50×	20.81
Draw & over 3.5	3.7%	4.8%	9.6%	0.50×	20.81
Estoril & over 2.5	3.6%	4.8%	17.4%	0.28×	20.82
Estoril & under 2.5	2.3%	4.8%	14.2%	0.34×	20.82
Draw & under 1.5	2.0%	4.8%	6.5%	0.74×	20.83
Estoril & under 1.5	1.7%	4.8%	9.1%	0.53×	20.83
Estoril & over 3.5	1.6%	4.8%	6.2%	0.78×	20.83

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (1UP)	89.8%	91.5%	—	—	1.09
Estoril (1UP)	21.6%	21.8%	—	—	4.60

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (2UP)	83.6%	87.1%	—	—	1.15
Estoril (2UP)	5.9%	7.8%	—	—	12.75

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to win 2nd half	70.0%	64.4%	—	—	1.55
2nd half drawn	21.3%	24.2%	—	—	4.14
Estoril to win 2nd half	8.7%	7.3%	—	—	13.75

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril under 1.5 in 2nd half	92.6%	92.0%	—	—	1.09
Estoril under 0.5 in 2nd half	64.1%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
Estoril over 0.5 in 2nd half	35.9%	39.8%	—	—	2.51
Estoril over 1.5 in 2nd half	7.4%	8.0%	—	—	12.52

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.9%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Sporting CP over 1.5 in 2nd half	52.7%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
Sporting CP under 1.5 in 2nd half	47.3%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
Sporting CP under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.1%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (+0.5)	94.1%	92.1%	68.6%	1.34×	1.09
Sporting CP (-0.5)	83.6%	82.5%	42.1%	1.96×	1.21
Sporting CP (-1.5)	65.6%	68.7%	22.2%	3.09×	1.46
Estoril (+2.5)	55.3%	57.0%	89.7%	0.64×	1.75
Sporting CP (-2.5)	44.7%	43.0%	10.3%	4.16×	2.33
Estoril (+1.5)	34.4%	31.3%	77.8%	0.40×	3.19
Estoril (+0.5)	16.4%	17.5%	57.9%	0.30×	5.73
Estoril (-0.5)	5.9%	7.9%	31.4%	0.25×	12.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to concede	95.5%	96.2%	73.8%	1.30×	1.04
Estoril clean sheet	4.5%	3.8%	26.2%	0.14×	26.54

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to concede in 1st half	73.7%	77.8%	—	—	1.29
Estoril clean sheet in 1st half	26.3%	22.2%	—	—	4.50

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to concede in 2nd half	82.9%	81.0%	—	—	1.23
Estoril clean sheet in 2nd half	17.1%	19.0%	—	—	5.27

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril under 6.5 corners	93.1%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Estoril under 5.5 corners	86.8%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Estoril under 4.5 corners	76.4%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Estoril under 3.5 corners	61.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Estoril over 2.5 corners	58.3%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Estoril under 2.5 corners	41.7%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Estoril over 3.5 corners	38.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Estoril over 4.5 corners	23.6%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Estoril over 5.5 corners	13.2%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
Estoril over 6.5 corners	6.9%	10.1%	—	—	9.91

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril under 3.5 goals	99.3%	97.5%	96.0%	1.02×	1.03
Estoril under 2.5 goals	96.1%	97.5%	88.8%	1.10×	1.03
Estoril under 1.5 goals	82.9%	81.5%	65.3%	1.25×	1.23
Estoril over 0.5 goals	52.4%	53.5%	67.6%	0.79×	1.87
Estoril under 0.5 goals	47.6%	46.5%	32.4%	1.44×	2.15
Estoril over 1.5 goals	17.1%	18.5%	34.7%	0.53×	5.40
Estoril over 2.5 goals	3.9%	2.5%	11.2%	0.22×	39.83
Estoril over 3.5 goals	0.7%	2.5%	4.0%	0.62×	40.00

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril under 1.5 in 1st half	96.4%	96.1%	—	—	1.04
Estoril under 0.5 in 1st half	74.3%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Estoril over 0.5 in 1st half	25.7%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
Estoril over 1.5 in 1st half	3.6%	3.9%	—	—	25.51

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril scores equally in both	54.1%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
Estoril scores more in 2nd half	28.4%	26.3%	—	—	3.80
Estoril scores more in 1st half	17.5%	18.0%	—	—	5.57

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (away no bet)	88.9%	84.9%	61.2%	1.39×	1.18
Draw (away no bet)	11.1%	15.1%	38.8%	0.39×	6.61

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril even goals	61.3%	59.0%	58.7%	1.01×	1.69
Estoril odd goals	38.7%	41.0%	41.3%	0.99×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	68.6%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Both halves over 1.5 goals	31.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	81.8%	78.5%	—	—	1.28
Both halves under 1.5 goals	18.2%	21.5%	—	—	4.64

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	80.1%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Sporting CP to score 2+ in a row	76.5%	75.5%	—	—	1.32
Either team to score 3+ in a row	51.2%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Sporting CP to score 3+ in a row	50.2%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Estoril to score 2+ in a row	9.1%	5.6%	—	—	17.82
Estoril to score 3+ in a row	1.2%	2.5%	—	—	39.96

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP corners (+3.5)	96.8%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Sporting CP corners (+2.5)	94.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Sporting CP corners (+1.5)	89.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Sporting CP corners (-1.5)	65.5%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Estoril corners (+3.5)	56.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Sporting CP corners (-2.5)	54.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Estoril corners (+2.5)	45.3%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Sporting CP corners (-3.5)	43.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Estoril corners (+1.5)	34.5%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Estoril corners (-1.5)	10.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Estoril corners (-2.5)	5.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Estoril corners (-3.5)	3.2%	4.3%	—	—	23.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	43.0%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	29.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	27.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	79.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	72.1%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	67.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	63.5%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	57.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	53.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	46.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	43.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	36.5%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	32.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	27.9%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	20.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	20.1%	20.1%	2.9%	6.85×	4.99
3-0	10.7%	11.5%	4.8%	2.40×	8.72
2-0	10.3%	11.5%	6.9%	1.65×	8.72
1-0	6.8%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.51
2-1	7.7%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.50
3-1	7.9%	7.4%	4.8%	1.55×	13.50
4-0	8.3%	7.4%	2.8%	2.67×	13.50
4-1	6.2%	7.4%	1.4%	5.34×	13.51
1-1	4.8%	1.7%	10.9%	0.16×	58.29
0-0	2.0%	1.7%	6.5%	0.27×	58.31
0-1	1.7%	1.7%	9.1%	0.19×	58.31
0-2	0.6%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.32
0-3	0.1%	1.7%	3.9%	0.45×	58.32
0-4	0.0%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.32
1-2	1.8%	1.7%	7.7%	0.22×	58.31
1-3	0.5%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.32
1-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.32
2-2	2.8%	1.7%	8.3%	0.21×	58.30
2-3	0.7%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.32
2-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.6%	2.78×	58.32
3-2	2.9%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.30
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	11.13×	58.32
4-2	2.3%	1.7%	0.6%	2.78×	58.31
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.3%	5.56×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.56×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (2nd half DNB)	88.9%	87.2%	—	—	1.15
Estoril (2nd half DNB)	11.1%	12.8%	—	—	7.80

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP leading at HT (DNB)	88.7%	88.9%	—	—	1.13
Estoril leading at HT (DNB)	11.3%	11.1%	—	—	9.03

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP or draw (1X)	94.1%	92.0%	68.6%	1.34×	1.09
Sporting CP or Estoril (12)	89.6%	86.6%	73.3%	1.18×	1.16
Estoril or draw (X2)	16.4%	18.3%	57.9%	0.32×	5.47

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP or draw at HT	91.9%	91.3%	—	—	1.10
Sporting CP or Estoril at HT	71.9%	75.1%	—	—	1.33
Estoril or draw at HT	36.2%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP or draw (1UP)	94.1%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Estoril or draw (1UP)	21.6%	23.3%	—	—	4.30

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP or draw in 2nd half	91.3%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Sporting CP or Estoril in 2nd half	78.7%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Estoril or draw in 2nd half	30.0%	35.6%	—	—	2.81

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	56.4%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
A half drawn	43.6%	41.6%	—	—	2.40

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (DNB)	93.4%	93.4%	57.2%	1.63×	1.07
Estoril (DNB)	6.6%	6.6%	42.8%	0.15×	15.13

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to score first	79.1%	81.6%	—	—	1.23
Estoril to score first	18.9%	18.4%	—	—	5.43
No goal scored	2.0%	4.2%	—	—	23.62

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	50.1%	51.3%	52.1%	0.98×	1.95
Both teams to score	49.9%	48.7%	47.9%	1.02×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	45.1%	44.3%	37.1%	1.19×	2.26
Not both score & over 2.5	28.7%	33.3%	14.3%	2.33×	3.00
Not both score & under 2.5	21.4%	27.7%	37.9%	0.73×	3.60
Both score & under 2.5	4.8%	4.8%	10.9%	0.44×	21.00

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.1%	85.6%	86.0%	1.00×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.9%	14.4%	14.0%	1.03×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.3%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.7%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	57.0%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	24.1%	21.1%	—	—	4.73
Both score 1st half only	13.3%	10.7%	—	—	9.35
Both score in both halves	5.6%	6.8%	—	—	14.78

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.1%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	18.9%	16.8%	—	—	5.95

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	71.6%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
A half without a goal	28.4%	26.0%	—	—	3.85

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	44.2%	42.1%	27.7%	1.52×	2.37
2-3 goals	36.0%	35.1%	45.6%	0.77×	2.85
0-1 goals	10.5%	16.9%	26.0%	0.65×	5.92
7+ goals	9.3%	7.6%	0.9%	8.27×	13.07

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to score exactly 0	47.6%	42.9%	32.4%	1.32×	2.33
Estoril to score exactly 1	35.3%	35.9%	33.1%	1.08×	2.78
Estoril to score exactly 2	13.1%	12.9%	23.6%	0.55×	7.76
Estoril to score 3+	3.9%	4.6%	11.2%	0.41×	21.79

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to score 3+	59.9%	45.4%	19.1%	2.38×	2.20
Sporting CP to score exactly 2	21.7%	23.3%	23.6%	0.99×	4.29
Sporting CP to score exactly 1	14.0%	14.3%	31.4%	0.46×	6.98
Sporting CP to score exactly 0	4.5%	6.2%	26.2%	0.24×	16.09

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP leading at HT	63.8%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Draw at HT	28.1%	24.9%	—	—	4.01
Estoril leading at HT	8.1%	8.7%	—	—	11.56

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP -1: 1	65.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Sporting CP -1: X	18.0%	17.5%	—	—	5.71
Sporting CP -1: 2	16.4%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (0:1)	65.6%	65.2%	22.2%	2.94×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	18.0%	17.8%	20.0%	0.89×	5.61
Estoril (0:1)	16.4%	17.8%	57.9%	0.31×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (0:2)	44.7%	39.1%	10.3%	3.79×	2.55
Estoril (0:2)	34.4%	29.0%	77.8%	0.37×	3.45
Draw (0:2)	20.9%	20.3%	12.0%	1.69×	4.93

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (0:3)	55.3%	68.9%	89.7%	0.77×	1.45
Sporting CP (0:3)	26.3%	23.0%	4.5%	5.14×	4.36
Draw (0:3)	18.4%	16.2%	6.0%	2.70×	6.17

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (0:4)	73.8%	77.8%	95.5%	0.81×	1.29
Sporting CP (0:4)	13.3%	10.0%	1.4%	7.23×	9.97
Draw (0:4)	12.9%	10.0%	3.2%	3.09×	10.01

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (1:0)	94.1%	92.8%	68.6%	1.35×	1.08
Draw (1:0)	4.4%	3.3%	17.7%	0.19×	30.42
Estoril (1:0)	1.5%	3.2%	13.9%	0.23×	30.86

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (2:0)	98.5%	96.8%	86.1%	1.12×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	1.2%	2.3%	7.1%	0.32×	43.76
Estoril (2:0)	0.3%	2.3%	6.9%	0.33×	43.81

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	51.2%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
1st half highest scoring	28.6%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	20.2%	24.3%	—	—	4.12

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to concede	52.4%	53.2%	67.6%	0.79×	1.88
Sporting CP clean sheet	47.6%	46.8%	32.4%	1.45×	2.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP clean sheet in 1st half	74.3%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Sporting CP to concede in 1st half	25.7%	32.1%	—	—	3.11

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP clean sheet in 2nd half	64.1%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Sporting CP to concede in 2nd half	35.9%	40.1%	—	—	2.50

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP over 2.5 corners	90.0%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Sporting CP over 3.5 corners	80.5%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Sporting CP over 4.5 corners	68.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Sporting CP under 6.5 corners	57.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Sporting CP over 5.5 corners	55.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Sporting CP under 5.5 corners	44.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Sporting CP over 6.5 corners	43.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Sporting CP under 4.5 corners	31.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Sporting CP under 3.5 corners	19.5%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
Sporting CP under 2.5 corners	10.0%	10.8%	—	—	9.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP over 0.5 goals	95.5%	96.4%	73.8%	1.31×	1.04
Sporting CP over 1.5 goals	81.5%	82.2%	42.5%	1.93×	1.22
Sporting CP under 3.5 goals	62.5%	63.6%	93.5%	0.68×	1.57
Sporting CP over 2.5 goals	59.9%	58.6%	19.1%	3.07×	1.71
Sporting CP under 2.5 goals	40.1%	41.4%	80.9%	0.51×	2.42
Sporting CP over 3.5 goals	37.5%	36.4%	6.5%	5.63×	2.75
Sporting CP under 1.5 goals	18.5%	17.8%	57.5%	0.31×	5.62
Sporting CP under 0.5 goals	4.5%	3.6%	26.2%	0.14×	27.46

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP over 0.5 in 1st half	73.7%	79.2%	—	—	1.26
Sporting CP under 1.5 in 1st half	61.5%	64.8%	—	—	1.54
Sporting CP over 1.5 in 1st half	38.5%	35.2%	—	—	2.84
Sporting CP under 0.5 in 1st half	26.3%	20.8%	—	—	4.82

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP scores more in 2nd half	47.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Sporting CP scores more in 1st half	29.1%	27.9%	—	—	3.59
Sporting CP scores equally in both	23.3%	21.2%	—	—	4.71

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	63.8%	60.0%	45.9%	1.31×	1.67
Estoril (home no bet)	36.2%	40.0%	54.1%	0.74×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP even goals	50.1%	50.7%	54.7%	0.93×	1.97
Sporting CP odd goals	49.9%	49.3%	45.3%	1.09×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	26.1%	27.9%	—	—	3.58
HT 0-0	19.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 2-0	17.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Any other HT score	15.4%	18.5%	—	—	5.39
HT 1-1	7.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.48
HT 0-1	5.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.51
HT 2-1	5.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.52
HT 1-2	1.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.20
HT 0-2	0.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.22
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.23

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP at HT / Sporting CP at FT	60.7%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Draw at HT / Sporting CP at FT	19.7%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	5.8%	6.0%	—	—	16.67
Estoril at HT / Sporting CP at FT	3.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.65
Estoril at HT / Estoril at FT	2.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.66
Sporting CP at HT / Draw at FT	2.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.67
Draw at HT / Estoril at FT	2.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.67
Estoril at HT / Draw at FT	2.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.69
Sporting CP at HT / Estoril at FT	0.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.74

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to score last	79.0%	77.4%	—	—	1.29
Estoril to score last	19.0%	14.5%	—	—	6.90
No goal scored	2.0%	4.2%	—	—	23.62

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	98.0%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Sporting CP to lead by 1 at any time	89.8%	91.7%	—	—	1.09
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	74.5%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Sporting CP to lead by 2 at any time	70.9%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	48.9%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Sporting CP to lead by 3 at any time	48.3%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Estoril to lead by 1 at any time	21.6%	19.6%	—	—	5.09
Estoril to lead by 2 at any time	4.1%	1.6%	—	—	60.78
Estoril to lead by 3 at any time	0.7%	1.6%	—	—	64.05

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP most corners	75.4%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Estoril most corners	16.4%	19.2%	—	—	5.21
Corners level	8.2%	8.4%	—	—	11.97

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	80.2%	83.4%	73.2%	1.14×	1.20
1-5 goals	79.1%	78.7%	89.8%	0.88×	1.27
2-5 goals	70.6%	72.4%	70.3%	1.03×	1.38
3-6 goals	64.5%	63.3%	50.5%	1.25×	1.58
1-4 goals	64.1%	63.3%	83.1%	0.76×	1.58
2-4 goals	55.5%	59.1%	63.5%	0.93×	1.69
3-5 goals	54.9%	53.2%	47.6%	1.12×	1.88
1-3 goals	44.5%	43.6%	65.2%	0.67×	2.29
4-6 goals	44.2%	43.6%	27.7%	1.57×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.8%	39.2%	40.8%	0.96×	2.55
2-3 goals	36.0%	39.2%	45.6%	0.86×	2.55
4-5 goals	34.6%	35.2%	24.8%	1.42×	2.84
5-6 goals	24.7%	24.5%	9.9%	2.48×	4.08
1-2 goals	24.2%	24.5%	42.4%	0.58×	4.08
7+ goals	9.3%	8.9%	0.9%	9.61×	11.25

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP never behind	76.5%	77.0%	—	—	1.30
Estoril never behind	8.2%	4.5%	—	—	22.19

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.7%	50.9%	50.2%	1.01×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.3%	49.1%	49.8%	0.99×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	51.9%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	48.1%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.5%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.5%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	98.0%	95.4%	93.5%	1.02×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	89.5%	87.6%	74.0%	1.18×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	81.1%	82.3%	96.1%	0.86×	1.22
Over 2.5 goals	73.8%	72.5%	51.3%	1.41×	1.38
Under 4.5 goals	66.1%	66.3%	89.4%	0.74×	1.51
Over 3.5 goals	53.5%	52.5%	28.5%	1.84×	1.90
Under 3.5 goals	46.5%	47.5%	71.5%	0.66×	2.11
Over 4.5 goals	33.9%	33.7%	10.6%	3.17×	2.97
Under 2.5 goals	26.2%	27.5%	48.7%	0.57×	3.63
Over 5.5 goals	18.9%	17.7%	3.9%	4.60×	5.65
Under 1.5 goals	10.5%	12.4%	26.0%	0.48×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	2.0%	4.6%	6.5%	0.71×	21.89

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	89.7%	86.7%	99.0%	0.88×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	87.5%	86.7%	66.3%	1.31×	1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	77.7%	75.9%	95.9%	0.79×	1.32
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	67.1%	67.4%	36.9%	1.83×	1.48
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	57.8%	55.8%	87.1%	0.64×	1.79
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	42.2%	44.2%	12.9%	3.42×	2.26
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	32.9%	32.6%	63.1%	0.52×	3.07
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	22.3%	24.1%	4.1%	5.83×	4.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	12.5%	13.3%	33.7%	0.39×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	10.3%	13.3%	1.0%	13.92×	7.54

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	80.5%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 1st half	77.5%	78.1%	—	—	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	51.5%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Over 1.5 in 1st half	48.5%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Over 2.5 in 1st half	22.5%	21.9%	—	—	4.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	19.5%	14.3%	—	—	6.99

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	89.1%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	64.8%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	62.0%	61.6%	—	—	1.63
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	38.0%	38.4%	—	—	2.60
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	35.2%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	10.9%	14.4%	—	—	6.94

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril not to score in both halves	90.8%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Sporting CP to score in both halves	61.1%	63.5%	—	—	1.57
Sporting CP not to score in both halves	38.9%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Estoril to score in both halves	9.2%	10.0%	—	—	10.01

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.9%	50.7%	47.9%	1.06×	1.97
Only Sporting CP scores	45.6%	50.7%	26.0%	1.95×	1.97
Only Estoril scores	2.5%	4.6%	19.9%	0.23×	21.74
Neither team scores	2.0%	4.6%	6.5%	0.71×	21.76

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	20.3%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	19.5%	17.5%	18.0%	0.97×	5.73
6 or more goals	18.9%	17.5%	3.9%	4.53×	5.73
Exactly 2 goals	15.7%	17.5%	22.8%	0.77×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	15.0%	17.5%	6.9%	2.52×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	8.6%	7.6%	19.7%	0.39×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	2.0%	4.5%	6.5%	0.69×	22.41

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	32.0%	35.8%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	26.0%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
3+ goals in 1st half	22.5%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
No goals in 1st half	19.5%	15.7%	—	—	6.37

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	64.8%	58.9%	—	—	1.70
1 goal in 2nd half	24.3%	22.9%	—	—	4.37
No goals in 2nd half	10.9%	14.2%	—	—	7.04

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril not to win both halves	99.3%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
Sporting CP not to win both halves	55.4%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Sporting CP to win both halves	44.6%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
Estoril to win both halves	0.7%	2.7%	—	—	36.49

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to win either half	89.2%	92.9%	—	—	1.08
Estoril to win neither half	83.8%	83.7%	—	—	1.19
Estoril to win either half	16.2%	16.3%	—	—	6.15
Sporting CP to win neither half	10.8%	7.1%	—	—	14.05

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril not to win to nil	97.5%	96.2%	80.1%	1.20×	1.04
Sporting CP not to win to nil	54.4%	53.9%	74.0%	0.73×	1.85
Sporting CP to win to nil	45.6%	46.1%	26.0%	1.77×	2.17
Estoril to win to nil	2.5%	3.8%	19.9%	0.19×	26.14

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP by 3+	44.7%	35.5%	10.3%	3.44×	2.82
Sporting CP by 2	20.9%	24.1%	12.0%	2.01×	4.15
Sporting CP by 1	18.0%	17.1%	20.0%	0.85×	5.87
Draw	10.4%	11.8%	26.7%	0.44×	8.51
Estoril by 1	4.4%	2.7%	17.7%	0.15×	36.77
Estoril by 2	1.2%	2.7%	7.1%	0.38×	36.87
Estoril by 3+	0.3%	2.7%	6.9%	0.39×	36.90