Sporting CP v Galatasaray — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 9 September 2026 · EUR-Champions League · 2627

Champions League results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

Sporting CP

3–1

19:00 UTC

Galatasaray

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 9 Sep, 11:32 · 7h before kick-off

Sporting CP win

56.7%

model 56.2%

Draw

21.6%

model 20.7%

Galatasaray win

21.7%

model 23.1%

572222

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (317 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.8%
1-1 9.4%
1-0 9.0%
2-0 8.3%
3-1 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	60.8%	Under 2.5	39.2%
BTTS yes	59.0%	BTTS no	41.0%
Sporting CP 1+	86.0%	Sporting CP 2+	58.5%
Galatasaray 1+	69.2%	Galatasaray 2+	33.0%

Expected goals 1.97 – 1.18. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

76/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Draw (home no bet)

Home no bet · usually 32%

50.7% fair odds 1.97

strong signal · 488 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Galatasaray (0:3)

Handicap 0:3 · usually 82%

84.0% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 274 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Sporting CP carry the stronger rating, 1812 Elo against 1746.
Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.
They have had 12 days' rest to Galatasaray's 5.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Sporting CP have an estimated 56.7% win probability, against 21.7% for Galatasaray and 21.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.97 for Sporting CP and 1.18 for Galatasaray.

Why Sporting CP

Sporting CP carry the stronger rating, 1812 Elo against 1746. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five. They have had 12 days' rest to Galatasaray's 5.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.6%. Draws run at 16% in this competition.

Why Galatasaray can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Sporting CP, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Galatasaray, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Sporting CP: 59% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 9.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Galatasaray: 51% possession, 18.8 shots a match, 6.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Sporting CP are the model's most likely outcome at 56.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.8%. Confidence 76/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	562123	1.97–1.18	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
ai-blend-oos	582220	2.08–1.16	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg	622018	2.03–0.97	1-0 11%	58%	53%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	632017	2.06–0.96	1-0 10%	58%	53%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to win	62.3%	58.0%	50.5%	1.15×	1.73
Draw	19.8%	19.5%	15.8%	1.23×	5.14
Galatasaray to win	17.9%	19.4%	33.9%	0.57×	5.15

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP & not both score	33.3%	29.7%	24.9%	1.19×	3.37
Sporting CP & both teams score	28.9%	25.2%	25.9%	0.97×	3.98
Draw & both teams score	15.3%	17.9%	10.9%	1.65×	5.58
Galatasaray & both teams score	9.2%	8.4%	18.7%	0.45×	11.93
Galatasaray & not both score	8.7%	8.4%	15.5%	0.54×	11.93
Draw & not both score	4.5%	4.9%	5.2%	0.95×	20.33

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP & over 1.5	51.6%	48.6%	42.2%	1.15×	2.06
Sporting CP & over 2.5	41.4%	40.3%	36.0%	1.12×	2.48
Sporting CP & under 3.5	37.7%	34.8%	26.9%	1.29×	2.87
Sporting CP & over 3.5	24.5%	21.6%	23.8%	0.91×	4.63
Sporting CP & under 2.5	20.9%	21.6%	14.8%	1.46×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	15.3%	18.0%	10.9%	1.65×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	13.8%	12.9%	10.6%	1.21×	7.76
Draw & under 3.5	13.8%	12.9%	10.6%	1.21×	7.76
Galatasaray & over 1.5	12.5%	12.9%	28.5%	0.45×	7.76
Galatasaray & under 3.5	13.3%	12.9%	19.2%	0.67×	7.76
Sporting CP & under 1.5	10.6%	12.9%	8.5%	1.51×	7.76
Galatasaray & over 2.5	10.2%	12.9%	24.1%	0.53×	7.76
Galatasaray & under 2.5	7.7%	7.9%	10.1%	0.78×	12.65
Draw & over 2.5	6.0%	7.9%	5.4%	1.45×	12.65
Draw & over 3.5	6.0%	7.9%	5.4%	1.45×	12.65
Galatasaray & under 1.5	5.4%	7.9%	5.7%	1.39×	12.65
Draw & under 1.5	4.5%	4.8%	5.2%	0.93×	20.85
Galatasaray & over 3.5	4.6%	4.8%	15.0%	0.32×	20.85

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (1UP)	74.3%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Galatasaray (1UP)	35.8%	34.2%	—	—	2.92

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (2UP)	62.3%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Galatasaray (2UP)	17.9%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to win 2nd half	49.9%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
2nd half drawn	31.2%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Galatasaray to win 2nd half	18.8%	19.1%	—	—	5.22

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.3%	86.7%	—	—	1.15
Galatasaray under 0.5 in 2nd half	55.8%	55.4%	—	—	1.81
Galatasaray over 0.5 in 2nd half	44.2%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Galatasaray over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.7%	13.3%	—	—	7.54

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP over 0.5 in 2nd half	68.5%	71.2%	—	—	1.41
Sporting CP under 1.5 in 2nd half	67.9%	71.1%	—	—	1.41
Sporting CP over 1.5 in 2nd half	32.1%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
Sporting CP under 0.5 in 2nd half	31.5%	28.8%	—	—	3.47

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (+0.5)	82.1%	82.5%	66.1%	1.25×	1.21
Galatasaray (+2.5)	81.0%	82.4%	81.9%	1.01×	1.21
Sporting CP (-0.5)	62.3%	62.9%	50.5%	1.25×	1.59
Galatasaray (+1.5)	62.2%	62.9%	68.9%	0.91×	1.59
Sporting CP (-1.5)	37.8%	37.1%	31.1%	1.19×	2.70
Galatasaray (+0.5)	37.7%	37.1%	49.5%	0.75×	2.70
Sporting CP (-2.5)	19.0%	17.6%	18.1%	0.97×	5.70
Galatasaray (-0.5)	17.9%	17.5%	33.9%	0.52×	5.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray to concede	86.8%	86.3%	79.5%	1.08×	1.16
Galatasaray clean sheet	13.2%	13.7%	20.5%	0.67×	7.28

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray to concede in 1st half	58.1%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Galatasaray clean sheet in 1st half	41.9%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray to concede in 2nd half	68.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Galatasaray clean sheet in 2nd half	31.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.00

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray under 6.5 corners	87.1%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Galatasaray under 5.5 corners	78.8%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Galatasaray under 4.5 corners	67.1%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Galatasaray over 2.5 corners	65.9%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Galatasaray under 3.5 corners	51.7%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Galatasaray over 3.5 corners	48.3%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Galatasaray under 2.5 corners	34.1%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Galatasaray over 4.5 corners	32.9%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Galatasaray over 5.5 corners	21.2%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Galatasaray over 6.5 corners	12.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.76

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray under 3.5 goals	98.3%	97.5%	92.2%	1.06×	1.03
Galatasaray under 2.5 goals	92.5%	92.3%	78.8%	1.17×	1.08
Galatasaray under 1.5 goals	74.6%	71.9%	59.3%	1.21×	1.39
Galatasaray over 0.5 goals	62.2%	63.1%	70.2%	0.90×	1.59
Galatasaray under 0.5 goals	37.8%	36.9%	29.8%	1.24×	2.71
Galatasaray over 1.5 goals	25.4%	28.1%	40.7%	0.69×	3.56
Galatasaray over 2.5 goals	7.5%	7.7%	21.2%	0.36×	13.00
Galatasaray over 3.5 goals	1.7%	2.5%	7.8%	0.32×	40.09

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray under 1.5 in 1st half	94.1%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Galatasaray under 0.5 in 1st half	67.8%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Galatasaray over 0.5 in 1st half	32.2%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Galatasaray over 1.5 in 1st half	5.9%	5.8%	—	—	17.36

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray scores equally in both	46.9%	48.4%	—	—	2.07
Galatasaray scores more in 2nd half	33.2%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Galatasaray scores more in 1st half	20.0%	18.1%	—	—	5.52

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (away no bet)	75.9%	73.5%	76.2%	0.97×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	24.1%	26.5%	23.8%	1.11×	3.78

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray even goals	57.1%	56.9%	54.4%	1.05×	1.76
Galatasaray odd goals	42.9%	43.1%	45.6%	0.95×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	81.4%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.6%	17.1%	—	—	5.85

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	68.9%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	31.1%	31.4%	—	—	3.19

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	63.1%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Sporting CP to score 2+ in a row	52.4%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
Either team to score 3+ in a row	27.5%	25.0%	—	—	3.99
Sporting CP to score 3+ in a row	24.3%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Galatasaray to score 2+ in a row	17.0%	16.3%	—	—	6.14
Galatasaray to score 3+ in a row	3.5%	2.6%	—	—	38.46

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP corners (+3.5)	91.0%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Sporting CP corners (+2.5)	85.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Sporting CP corners (+1.5)	78.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Galatasaray corners (+3.5)	71.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Galatasaray corners (+2.5)	62.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Galatasaray corners (+1.5)	51.8%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Sporting CP corners (-1.5)	48.2%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Sporting CP corners (-2.5)	37.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Sporting CP corners (-3.5)	28.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Galatasaray corners (-1.5)	21.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Galatasaray corners (-2.5)	14.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Galatasaray corners (-3.5)	9.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.57

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	49.2%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	27.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	23.8%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.6%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	76.2%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	68.5%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	61.4%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	59.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	50.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	49.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	40.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	38.6%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	31.5%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	23.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	17.4%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	10.6%	11.4%	8.5%	1.34×	8.74
2-0	10.2%	11.4%	6.5%	1.77×	8.74
1-1	9.3%	7.4%	5.7%	1.30×	13.50
2-1	10.0%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.50
3-0	6.9%	7.4%	5.2%	1.43×	13.50
3-1	6.7%	7.4%	5.7%	1.30×	13.50
Any other score	5.8%	7.4%	11.1%	0.67×	13.50
0-1	5.4%	7.4%	5.7%	1.30×	13.50
1-2	4.8%	1.7%	5.7%	0.30×	58.29
2-2	4.8%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.29
0-0	4.5%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.29
0-2	2.4%	1.7%	4.7%	0.37×	58.31
0-3	0.8%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.31
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.32
1-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.31
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.32
2-3	1.6%	1.7%	5.4%	0.32×	58.31
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.0%	1.65×	58.32
3-2	3.3%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	58.30
3-3	1.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.31×	58.32
4-0	3.5%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	58.30
4-1	3.4%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
4-2	1.7%	1.7%	1.3%	1.32×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.21×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.31×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (2nd half DNB)	72.6%	68.3%	—	—	1.46
Galatasaray (2nd half DNB)	27.4%	31.7%	—	—	3.15

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP leading at HT (DNB)	74.2%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Galatasaray leading at HT (DNB)	25.8%	27.3%	—	—	3.66

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP or draw (1X)	82.1%	80.6%	66.1%	1.22×	1.24
Sporting CP or Galatasaray (12)	80.2%	80.5%	84.2%	0.96×	1.24
Galatasaray or draw (X2)	37.7%	42.0%	49.5%	0.85×	2.38

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP or draw at HT	84.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Sporting CP or Galatasaray at HT	61.4%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Galatasaray or draw at HT	54.5%	47.8%	—	—	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP or draw (1UP)	82.1%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
Galatasaray or draw (1UP)	37.7%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP or draw in 2nd half	81.2%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Sporting CP or Galatasaray in 2nd half	68.8%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Galatasaray or draw in 2nd half	50.1%	54.3%	—	—	1.84

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.4%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Neither half drawn	41.6%	42.0%	—	—	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (DNB)	77.6%	74.5%	59.8%	1.25×	1.34
Galatasaray (DNB)	22.4%	25.5%	40.2%	0.63×	3.93

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to score first	64.5%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Galatasaray to score first	31.0%	27.1%	—	—	3.70
No goal scored	4.5%	4.3%	—	—	23.21

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.5%	51.4%	54.9%	0.94×	1.95
Not both teams to score	46.5%	48.6%	45.1%	1.08×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.2%	41.7%	49.5%	0.84×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	33.1%	34.4%	29.5%	1.16×	2.91
Not both score & over 2.5	13.5%	12.3%	15.8%	0.78×	8.11
Both score & under 2.5	9.3%	8.3%	5.7%	1.46×	11.99

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.7%	82.9%	80.6%	1.03×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	15.3%	17.1%	19.4%	0.88×	5.84

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.10

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.9%	59.3%	—	—	1.69
Both score 2nd half only	24.4%	20.9%	—	—	4.78
Both score 1st half only	13.0%	10.7%	—	—	9.32
Both score in both halves	5.7%	6.7%	—	—	14.86

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.3%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	18.7%	17.6%	—	—	5.68

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	58.8%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
A half without a goal	41.2%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.3%	42.1%	37.6%	1.12×	2.38
4-6 goals	31.9%	30.7%	37.3%	0.82×	3.25
0-1 goals	20.5%	22.8%	18.9%	1.21×	4.38
7+ goals	3.3%	1.8%	6.7%	0.27×	54.55

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray to score exactly 0	37.8%	36.0%	29.8%	1.21×	2.78
Galatasaray to score exactly 1	36.8%	36.0%	29.8%	1.21×	2.78
Galatasaray to score exactly 2	17.9%	19.6%	19.7%	1.00×	5.10
Galatasaray to score 3+	7.5%	8.5%	21.2%	0.40×	11.72

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to score 3+	33.0%	32.6%	30.8%	1.06×	3.07
Sporting CP to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.5%	23.8%	1.11×	3.77
Sporting CP to score exactly 1	26.7%	26.5%	25.4%	1.04×	3.77
Sporting CP to score exactly 0	13.2%	14.4%	20.5%	0.70×	6.94

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP leading at HT	45.5%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Draw at HT	38.6%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Galatasaray leading at HT	15.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.46

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP -1: 1	37.8%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Sporting CP -1: 2	37.7%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Sporting CP -1: X	24.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (0:1)	37.8%	37.4%	31.1%	1.20×	2.68
Galatasaray (0:1)	37.7%	37.4%	49.5%	0.76×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	24.4%	24.3%	19.7%	1.23×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray (0:2)	62.2%	67.3%	68.9%	0.98×	1.49
Sporting CP (0:2)	19.0%	15.3%	18.1%	0.84×	6.55
Draw (0:2)	18.8%	15.3%	13.2%	1.16×	6.55

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray (0:3)	81.0%	85.2%	81.9%	1.04×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	11.1%	10.0%	9.1%	1.10×	10.04
Sporting CP (0:3)	7.9%	5.8%	9.3%	0.62×	17.27

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray (0:4)	92.1%	94.7%	90.7%	1.04×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.1%	4.6%	5.7%	0.80×	21.81
Sporting CP (0:4)	2.8%	1.2%	3.9%	0.31×	83.42

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (1:0)	82.1%	81.4%	66.1%	1.23×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	12.0%	12.8%	16.8%	0.76×	7.84
Galatasaray (1:0)	5.9%	6.9%	17.4%	0.40×	14.43

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (2:0)	94.1%	93.9%	82.6%	1.14×	1.07
Draw (2:0)	4.4%	2.3%	8.0%	0.29×	43.58
Galatasaray (2:0)	1.6%	2.3%	9.6%	0.24×	43.75

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.1%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
1st half highest scoring	28.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	22.8%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to concede	62.2%	63.5%	70.2%	0.91×	1.57
Sporting CP clean sheet	37.8%	36.5%	29.8%	1.22×	2.74

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP clean sheet in 1st half	67.8%	68.9%	—	—	1.45
Sporting CP to concede in 1st half	32.2%	31.1%	—	—	3.21

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP clean sheet in 2nd half	55.8%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Sporting CP to concede in 2nd half	44.2%	44.5%	—	—	2.25

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP over 2.5 corners	81.3%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Sporting CP under 6.5 corners	70.5%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Sporting CP over 3.5 corners	68.1%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Sporting CP under 5.5 corners	59.2%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Sporting CP over 4.5 corners	54.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Sporting CP under 4.5 corners	46.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Sporting CP over 5.5 corners	40.8%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Sporting CP under 3.5 corners	31.9%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Sporting CP over 6.5 corners	29.5%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Sporting CP under 2.5 corners	18.7%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP over 0.5 goals	86.8%	87.2%	79.5%	1.10×	1.15
Sporting CP under 3.5 goals	85.3%	87.2%	84.2%	1.04×	1.15
Sporting CP under 2.5 goals	67.0%	67.9%	69.2%	0.98×	1.47
Sporting CP over 1.5 goals	60.1%	63.5%	54.4%	1.17×	1.58
Sporting CP under 1.5 goals	39.9%	36.5%	45.6%	0.80×	2.74
Sporting CP over 2.5 goals	33.0%	32.1%	30.8%	1.04×	3.11
Sporting CP over 3.5 goals	14.7%	12.8%	15.8%	0.81×	7.81
Sporting CP under 0.5 goals	13.2%	12.8%	20.5%	0.63×	7.82

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP under 1.5 in 1st half	78.3%	77.3%	—	—	1.29
Sporting CP over 0.5 in 1st half	58.1%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Sporting CP under 0.5 in 1st half	41.9%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
Sporting CP over 1.5 in 1st half	21.7%	22.7%	—	—	4.40

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP scores more in 2nd half	42.3%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Sporting CP scores equally in both	30.2%	32.7%	—	—	3.05
Sporting CP scores more in 1st half	27.5%	28.0%	—	—	3.57

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	52.5%	51.5%	31.8%	1.62×	1.94
Galatasaray (home no bet)	47.5%	48.5%	68.2%	0.71×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP even goals	50.9%	50.6%	53.4%	0.95×	1.98
Sporting CP odd goals	49.1%	49.4%	46.6%	1.06×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.3%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
HT 1-0	24.8%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
HT 0-1	11.1%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 2-0	10.8%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 1-1	9.5%	7.1%	—	—	13.99
Any other HT score	6.5%	7.1%	—	—	14.04
HT 2-1	4.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.40
HT 0-2	2.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.55
HT 1-2	1.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.57
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.65

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP at HT / Sporting CP at FT	39.6%	41.3%	—	—	2.42
Draw at HT / Sporting CP at FT	19.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Galatasaray at HT / Galatasaray at FT	8.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.62
Draw at HT / Galatasaray at FT	7.6%	6.0%	—	—	16.66
Sporting CP at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.75
Galatasaray at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.77
Galatasaray at HT / Sporting CP at FT	3.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.80
Sporting CP at HT / Galatasaray at FT	1.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.87

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to score last	64.4%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Galatasaray to score last	31.1%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	4.5%	4.3%	—	—	23.21

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.5%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Sporting CP to lead by 1 at any time	74.3%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	54.6%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Sporting CP to lead by 2 at any time	44.6%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Galatasaray to lead by 1 at any time	35.8%	34.8%	—	—	2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	24.4%	19.6%	—	—	5.09
Sporting CP to lead by 3 at any time	22.0%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Galatasaray to lead by 2 at any time	10.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
Galatasaray to lead by 3 at any time	2.4%	1.6%	—	—	61.96

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP most corners	59.2%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Galatasaray most corners	30.4%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Corners level	10.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.2%	87.4%	81.6%	1.07×	1.15
1-4 goals	77.1%	78.6%	67.4%	1.17×	1.27
2-6 goals	76.2%	78.6%	74.6%	1.05×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.2%	72.4%	67.9%	1.07×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.1%	63.4%	53.6%	1.18×	1.58
1-3 goals	60.3%	63.4%	51.3%	1.24×	1.58
3-6 goals	54.3%	53.2%	58.5%	0.91×	1.88
3-5 goals	49.3%	48.6%	51.8%	0.94×	2.06
2-3 goals	44.3%	43.6%	37.6%	1.16×	2.30
3-4 goals	39.2%	39.2%	37.6%	1.04×	2.55
1-2 goals	37.9%	39.2%	30.1%	1.30×	2.55
4-6 goals	31.9%	35.3%	37.3%	0.95×	2.83
4-5 goals	26.9%	30.3%	30.6%	0.99×	3.30
5-6 goals	15.1%	18.7%	21.2%	0.88×	5.34
7+ goals	3.3%	2.6%	6.7%	0.38×	39.09

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP never behind	59.7%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
Galatasaray never behind	21.2%	24.2%	—	—	4.13

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.1%	50.8%	45.3%	1.12×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.9%	49.2%	54.7%	0.90×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.8%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.2%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.2%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.8%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.5%	95.4%	94.8%	1.01×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	91.7%	92.2%	86.5%	1.07×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	81.6%	82.3%	72.3%	1.14×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	79.5%	77.4%	81.1%	0.95×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	64.8%	61.8%	56.2%	1.10×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	57.6%	58.7%	65.0%	0.90×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	42.4%	41.3%	35.0%	1.18×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	35.2%	38.2%	43.8%	0.87×	2.61
Under 1.5 goals	20.5%	22.6%	18.9%	1.20×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	18.4%	17.7%	27.7%	0.64×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	8.4%	7.8%	13.5%	0.58×	12.87
Under 0.5 goals	4.5%	4.6%	5.2%	0.88×	21.91

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.5%	97.2%	92.8%	1.05×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.7%	92.4%	84.3%	1.10×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	77.9%	75.9%	67.0%	1.13×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	73.8%	72.5%	77.5%	0.94×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.6%	52.0%	44.4%	1.17×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.4%	48.0%	55.6%	0.86×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	26.2%	27.5%	22.5%	1.22×	3.64
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	22.1%	24.1%	33.0%	0.73×	4.14
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.3%	7.6%	15.7%	0.48×	13.14
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.5%	2.8%	7.2%	0.39×	35.82

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.6%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.7%	71.2%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	64.2%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.8%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.3%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.4%	11.0%	—	—	9.06

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.6%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	74.7%	77.8%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	51.7%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	48.3%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	25.3%	22.2%	—	—	4.50
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.4%	17.2%	—	—	5.80

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray not to score in both halves	85.7%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Sporting CP not to score in both halves	60.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Sporting CP to score in both halves	39.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Galatasaray to score in both halves	14.3%	14.3%	—	—	6.99

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.5%	53.9%	54.9%	0.98×	1.86
Only Sporting CP scores	33.3%	33.3%	24.9%	1.34×	3.00
Only Galatasaray scores	8.7%	7.2%	15.5%	0.46×	13.90
Neither team scores	4.5%	4.7%	5.2%	0.90×	21.41

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	21.5%	1.05×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	21.9%	22.6%	16.3%	1.38×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.8%	17.4%	16.3%	1.07×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	16.0%	17.4%	14.0%	1.25×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	10.1%	12.1%	14.5%	0.83×	8.28
6 or more goals	8.4%	7.6%	13.5%	0.57×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	4.5%	4.5%	5.2%	0.86×	22.41

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.9%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
No goals in 1st half	28.3%	28.5%	—	—	3.50
2 goals in 1st half	22.4%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
3+ goals in 1st half	13.4%	10.9%	—	—	9.15

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	51.7%	51.4%	—	—	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	30.9%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	17.4%	17.2%	—	—	5.81

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray not to win both halves	97.1%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Sporting CP not to win both halves	77.4%	75.3%	—	—	1.33
Sporting CP to win both halves	22.6%	24.7%	—	—	4.04
Galatasaray to win both halves	2.9%	2.8%	—	—	36.01

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to win either half	72.8%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Galatasaray to win neither half	68.2%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
Galatasaray to win either half	31.8%	31.9%	—	—	3.13
Sporting CP to win neither half	27.2%	27.1%	—	—	3.69

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray not to win to nil	91.3%	92.0%	84.5%	1.09×	1.09
Sporting CP not to win to nil	66.7%	69.7%	75.1%	0.93×	1.44
Sporting CP to win to nil	33.3%	30.3%	24.9%	1.22×	3.30
Galatasaray to win to nil	8.7%	8.0%	15.5%	0.52×	12.48

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP by 1	24.4%	24.2%	19.7%	1.23×	4.14
Draw	19.8%	16.9%	15.8%	1.07×	5.90
Sporting CP by 2	18.8%	16.9%	13.2%	1.28×	5.91
Sporting CP by 3+	19.0%	16.9%	18.1%	0.93×	5.91
Galatasaray by 1	12.0%	11.8%	16.8%	0.70×	8.49
Galatasaray by 2	4.4%	2.7%	8.0%	0.34×	36.62
Galatasaray by 3+	1.6%	2.7%	9.6%	0.28×	36.71

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.