Sporting CP v Maritimo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 6 December 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627
Primeira Liga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-0 10.8%
- 3-0 9.7%
- 2-1 8.9%
- 1-0 8.2%
- 3-1 8.0%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 68.3% | Under 2.5 | 31.7% |
| BTTS yes | 52.0% | BTTS no | 48.0% |
| Sporting CP 1+ | 93.3% | Sporting CP 2+ | 75.1% |
| Maritimo 1+ | 56.0% | Maritimo 2+ | 19.9% |
Expected goals 2.70 – 0.82. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Sporting CP carry the stronger rating, 1826 Elo against 1515.
- Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Maritimo have only 4 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Sporting CP have an estimated 77.2% win probability, against 13.8% for the draw and 9.1% for Maritimo. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.70 for Sporting CP and 0.82 for Maritimo.
Why Sporting CP
Sporting CP carry the stronger rating, 1826 Elo against 1515. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 13.8%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.
Why Maritimo can win
Nothing in the data singles out Maritimo.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Sporting CP, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Maritimo, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Sporting CP: 54% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 9.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Maritimo: 43% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Sporting CP are the model's most likely outcome at 77.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 10.8%. Confidence 66/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 2.70–0.82 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 2.87–0.85 | 2-0 10% | 72% | 54% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.