Sporting Gijón v Las Palmas — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 22 November 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Sporting Gijón

20:00 UTC

Las Palmas

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 705h before kick-off

Sporting Gijón win

39.9%

model 39.4%

Draw

28.9%

model 27.2%

Las Palmas win

31.2%

model 33.4%

402931

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.8%
1-0 11.9%
0-1 10.8%
0-0 9.0%
2-1 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	42.3%	Under 2.5	57.7%
BTTS yes	47.8%	BTTS no	52.2%
Sporting Gijón 1+	71.3%	Sporting Gijón 2+	35.5%
Las Palmas 1+	67.5%	Las Palmas 2+	31.0%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.13. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

54/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Not both teams to score

GG/NG · usually 46%

53.4% fair odds 1.87

moderate signal · 1528 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Las Palmas (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 80%

83.7% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Sporting Gijón have an estimated 39.9% win probability, against 31.2% for Las Palmas and 28.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.25 for Sporting Gijón and 1.12 for Las Palmas.

Why Sporting Gijón

Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.9%. A combined 2.37 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.25 to 1.12. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Las Palmas can win

Las Palmas carry the stronger rating, 1574 Elo against 1543. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Las Palmas's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Fabio Silva (0.41), Oliver McBurnie (0.26), Alberto Moleiro (0.21).

Availability

No lineup on record for Sporting Gijón, so availability is unknown. 3 of Las Palmas's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Sporting Gijón: 45% possession, 8.8 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Las Palmas: 56% possession, 8.8 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.28 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Sporting Gijón are the model's most likely outcome at 39.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.8%. Confidence 54/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Las Palmas have scored 8 from 9.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DLWWLLLLLL last 10 scored 8 from 9.8 xG conceded 14 from 15.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	392733	1.25–1.13	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	392833	1.19–1.05	1-1 13%	39%	45%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón to win	39.2%	36.4%	45.5%	0.80×	2.75
Las Palmas to win	32.6%	30.4%	28.1%	1.08×	3.29
Draw	28.1%	27.9%	26.5%	1.05×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón & not both score	24.5%	21.8%	23.6%	0.93×	4.58
Las Palmas & not both score	20.2%	21.8%	13.4%	1.62×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	17.8%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.56
Sporting Gijón & both teams score	14.7%	13.3%	22.0%	0.60×	7.53
Las Palmas & both teams score	12.4%	13.3%	14.8%	0.90×	7.54
Draw & not both score	10.4%	13.3%	9.1%	1.45×	7.54

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón & under 3.5	31.3%	30.8%	32.2%	0.96×	3.25
Las Palmas & under 3.5	26.5%	26.1%	19.6%	1.33×	3.84
Sporting Gijón & over 1.5	26.3%	26.1%	32.6%	0.80×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	23.4%	21.6%	20.2%	1.07×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	23.4%	21.6%	20.2%	1.07×	4.63
Las Palmas & over 1.5	21.1%	21.6%	19.5%	1.11×	4.63
Sporting Gijón & under 2.5	20.4%	21.6%	19.3%	1.12×	4.63
Sporting Gijón & over 2.5	18.8%	18.0%	26.3%	0.68×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.8%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.56
Las Palmas & under 2.5	17.5%	18.0%	11.5%	1.56×	5.56
Las Palmas & over 2.5	15.2%	18.0%	16.7%	1.08×	5.56
Sporting Gijón & under 1.5	12.9%	12.8%	13.0%	0.99×	7.79
Las Palmas & under 1.5	11.5%	12.8%	8.7%	1.48×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	10.4%	12.8%	9.1%	1.41×	7.79
Sporting Gijón & over 3.5	7.9%	7.9%	13.4%	0.59×	12.63
Las Palmas & over 3.5	6.1%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	4.8%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.81
Draw & over 3.5	4.8%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón (1UP)	53.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Las Palmas (1UP)	47.2%	43.9%	—	—	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón (2UP)	39.2%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Las Palmas (2UP)	32.6%	30.5%	—	—	3.28

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	39.7%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
Sporting Gijón to win 2nd half	31.5%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Las Palmas to win 2nd half	28.8%	25.9%	—	—	3.86

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Las Palmas under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.8%	87.0%	—	—	1.15
Las Palmas under 0.5 in 2nd half	53.2%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Las Palmas over 0.5 in 2nd half	46.8%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Las Palmas over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.2%	13.0%	—	—	7.67

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón under 1.5 in 2nd half	85.3%	88.1%	—	—	1.14
Sporting Gijón under 0.5 in 2nd half	50.9%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Sporting Gijón over 0.5 in 2nd half	49.1%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Sporting Gijón over 1.5 in 2nd half	14.7%	11.9%	—	—	8.43

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Las Palmas (+2.5)	94.6%	92.1%	92.3%	1.00×	1.09
Las Palmas (+1.5)	83.4%	82.5%	80.4%	1.03×	1.21
Sporting Gijón (+0.5)	67.4%	68.7%	71.9%	0.95×	1.46
Las Palmas (+0.5)	60.8%	62.9%	54.5%	1.15×	1.59
Sporting Gijón (-0.5)	39.2%	37.1%	45.5%	0.82×	2.70
Las Palmas (-0.5)	32.6%	31.3%	28.1%	1.12×	3.19
Sporting Gijón (-1.5)	16.6%	17.5%	19.6%	0.89×	5.73
Sporting Gijón (-2.5)	5.4%	7.9%	7.7%	1.03×	12.71

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Las Palmas to concede	69.4%	72.4%	77.6%	0.93×	1.38
Las Palmas clean sheet	30.6%	27.6%	22.4%	1.23×	3.62

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Las Palmas clean sheet in 1st half	60.1%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Las Palmas to concede in 1st half	39.9%	35.3%	—	—	2.84

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Las Palmas clean sheet in 2nd half	50.9%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Las Palmas to concede in 2nd half	49.1%	45.2%	—	—	2.21

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Las Palmas under 6.5 corners	83.3%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Las Palmas over 2.5 corners	74.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Las Palmas under 5.5 corners	73.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Las Palmas under 4.5 corners	59.0%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Las Palmas over 3.5 corners	57.7%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Las Palmas under 3.5 corners	42.3%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Las Palmas over 4.5 corners	41.0%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Las Palmas over 5.5 corners	27.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Las Palmas under 2.5 corners	25.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Las Palmas over 6.5 corners	16.7%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Las Palmas under 3.5 goals	97.8%	97.5%	97.0%	1.01×	1.03
Las Palmas under 2.5 goals	91.0%	92.3%	89.1%	1.04×	1.08
Las Palmas under 1.5 goals	71.6%	71.9%	69.4%	1.04×	1.39
Las Palmas over 0.5 goals	65.1%	68.0%	67.4%	1.01×	1.47
Las Palmas under 0.5 goals	34.9%	32.0%	32.6%	0.98×	3.12
Las Palmas over 1.5 goals	28.4%	28.1%	30.6%	0.92×	3.56
Las Palmas over 2.5 goals	9.0%	7.7%	10.9%	0.70×	13.04
Las Palmas over 3.5 goals	2.2%	2.5%	3.0%	0.82×	39.92

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Las Palmas under 1.5 in 1st half	93.3%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Las Palmas under 0.5 in 1st half	65.6%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Las Palmas over 0.5 in 1st half	34.4%	30.5%	—	—	3.28
Las Palmas over 1.5 in 1st half	6.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.78

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Las Palmas scores equally in both	44.8%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
Las Palmas scores more in 2nd half	34.6%	33.5%	—	—	2.99
Las Palmas scores more in 1st half	20.6%	22.1%	—	—	4.53

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón (away no bet)	58.2%	57.4%	63.2%	0.91×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	41.8%	42.6%	36.8%	1.16×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Las Palmas even goals	56.1%	56.9%	54.6%	1.04×	1.76
Las Palmas odd goals	43.9%	43.1%	45.4%	0.95×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	91.0%	91.8%	—	—	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	9.0%	8.2%	—	—	12.20

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	52.3%	50.5%	—	—	1.98
Both halves under 1.5 goals	47.7%	49.5%	—	—	2.02

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	45.4%	46.0%	—	—	2.17
Sporting Gijón to score 2+ in a row	26.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Las Palmas to score 2+ in a row	22.2%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Either team to score 3+ in a row	13.4%	12.1%	—	—	8.29
Sporting Gijón to score 3+ in a row	7.9%	5.6%	—	—	17.93
Las Palmas to score 3+ in a row	5.7%	5.5%	—	—	18.10

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón corners (+3.5)	87.0%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Las Palmas corners (+3.5)	82.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Sporting Gijón corners (+2.5)	79.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Las Palmas corners (+2.5)	74.5%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Sporting Gijón corners (+1.5)	70.5%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Las Palmas corners (+1.5)	64.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Sporting Gijón corners (-1.5)	35.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Las Palmas corners (-1.5)	29.5%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Sporting Gijón corners (-2.5)	25.5%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Las Palmas corners (-2.5)	20.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Sporting Gijón corners (-3.5)	17.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Las Palmas corners (-3.5)	13.0%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	50.1%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	29.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	20.7%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	85.7%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	79.3%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	71.1%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	61.6%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	61.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 8.5 corners	50.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	49.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	38.4%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 9.5 corners	38.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	28.9%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	20.7%	23.4%	—	—	4.28
Over 12.5 corners	14.3%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	12.9%	11.5%	13.0%	0.88×	8.72
1-1	13.0%	11.5%	11.2%	1.02×	8.72
0-1	11.5%	11.5%	8.7%	1.32×	8.72
0-0	10.4%	11.5%	9.1%	1.26×	8.72
1-2	7.0%	7.4%	7.0%	1.05×	13.51
2-0	7.5%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.51
2-1	7.9%	7.4%	10.1%	0.74×	13.51
0-2	5.9%	7.4%	2.9%	2.52×	13.51
1-3	2.5%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.31
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.32
2-2	4.2%	1.7%	5.7%	0.30×	58.30
2-3	1.5%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.31
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.32
3-0	3.0%	1.7%	3.0%	0.56×	58.30
3-1	3.1%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.30
3-2	1.6%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.31
3-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.32
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	8.18×	58.32
4-0	0.9%	1.7%	1.2%	1.49×	58.31
4-1	0.9%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.31
4-2	0.5%	1.7%	1.2%	1.49×	58.32
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.45×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	8.18×	58.32
Any other score	1.2%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.31
0-3	2.1%	1.7%	1.3%	1.36×	58.31
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón (2nd half DNB)	52.2%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Las Palmas (2nd half DNB)	47.8%	47.2%	—	—	2.12

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón leading at HT (DNB)	55.9%	57.0%	—	—	1.76
Las Palmas leading at HT (DNB)	44.1%	43.0%	—	—	2.33

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón or Las Palmas (12)	71.9%	72.1%	73.5%	0.98×	1.39
Sporting Gijón or draw (1X)	67.4%	69.6%	71.9%	0.97×	1.44
Las Palmas or draw (X2)	60.8%	63.6%	54.5%	1.17×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón or draw at HT	77.2%	79.2%	—	—	1.26
Las Palmas or draw at HT	71.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Sporting Gijón or Las Palmas at HT	51.8%	47.8%	—	—	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón or draw (1UP)	67.4%	76.2%	—	—	1.31
Las Palmas or draw (1UP)	60.8%	71.5%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón or draw in 2nd half	71.2%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Las Palmas or draw in 2nd half	68.5%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Sporting Gijón or Las Palmas in 2nd half	60.3%	63.9%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	69.1%	68.3%	—	—	1.46
Neither half drawn	30.9%	31.7%	—	—	3.16

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón (DNB)	54.6%	51.0%	61.8%	0.82×	1.96
Las Palmas (DNB)	45.4%	49.0%	38.2%	1.28×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón to score first	47.5%	46.0%	—	—	2.17
Las Palmas to score first	42.2%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	10.4%	9.4%	—	—	10.68

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	55.1%	55.0%	45.9%	1.20×	1.82
Both teams to score	44.9%	45.0%	54.1%	0.83×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	48.3%	44.3%	39.7%	1.12×	2.26
Both score & over 2.5	31.9%	34.5%	43.0%	0.80×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	13.0%	12.4%	11.2%	1.10×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	6.9%	8.3%	6.3%	1.32×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	90.6%	89.0%	85.6%	1.04×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	9.4%	11.0%	14.4%	0.77×	9.08

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	77.1%	74.6%	—	—	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	22.9%	25.4%	—	—	3.94

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	66.6%	63.1%	—	—	1.58
Both score 2nd half only	19.7%	15.1%	—	—	6.62
Both score 1st half only	10.5%	10.7%	—	—	9.34
Both score in both halves	3.2%	4.9%	—	—	20.41

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	86.3%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	13.7%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	56.0%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
A goal in each half	44.0%	42.8%	—	—	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.3%	47.2%	41.3%	1.14×	2.12
0-1 goals	34.8%	30.8%	30.6%	1.00×	3.25
4-6 goals	18.0%	20.2%	26.7%	0.76×	4.94
7+ goals	0.8%	1.8%	1.6%	1.17×	54.42

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Las Palmas to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.9%	36.9%	0.97×	2.78
Las Palmas to score exactly 0	34.9%	33.9%	32.6%	1.04×	2.95
Las Palmas to score exactly 2	19.3%	19.6%	19.8%	0.99×	5.11
Las Palmas to score 3+	9.0%	8.6%	10.9%	0.79×	11.68

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón to score exactly 1	36.2%	35.6%	35.6%	1.00×	2.81
Sporting Gijón to score exactly 0	30.6%	32.5%	22.4%	1.45×	3.07
Sporting Gijón to score exactly 2	21.5%	23.3%	24.9%	0.93×	4.29
Sporting Gijón to score 3+	11.7%	14.3%	17.2%	0.83×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	48.2%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Sporting Gijón leading at HT	28.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.98
Las Palmas leading at HT	22.8%	20.8%	—	—	4.82

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón -1: 2	60.8%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Sporting Gijón -1: X	22.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Sporting Gijón -1: 1	16.6%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Las Palmas (0:1)	60.8%	61.3%	54.5%	1.13×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	22.7%	24.2%	26.0%	0.93×	4.13
Sporting Gijón (0:1)	16.6%	17.8%	19.6%	0.91×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Las Palmas (0:2)	83.4%	82.9%	80.4%	1.03×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.1%	11.0%	12.1%	0.91×	9.10
Sporting Gijón (0:2)	5.4%	7.7%	7.7%	1.00×	13.06

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Las Palmas (0:3)	94.6%	92.7%	92.3%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.0%	2.4%	5.3%	0.45×	42.03
Sporting Gijón (0:3)	1.4%	2.4%	2.4%	0.98×	42.15

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Las Palmas (0:4)	98.6%	98.1%	97.6%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.1%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	81.98
Sporting Gijón (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	0.4%	2.91×	82.07

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón (1:0)	67.4%	70.1%	71.9%	0.98×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	20.2%	21.7%	17.9%	1.21×	4.61
Las Palmas (1:0)	12.5%	12.7%	10.3%	1.24×	7.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón (2:0)	87.5%	88.5%	89.7%	0.99×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.8%	6.4%	7.1%	0.90×	15.67
Las Palmas (2:0)	3.7%	2.3%	3.2%	0.71×	43.60

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.5%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
Halves equal	27.7%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	26.8%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón to concede	65.1%	66.6%	67.4%	0.99×	1.50
Sporting Gijón clean sheet	34.9%	33.4%	32.6%	1.02×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón clean sheet in 1st half	65.6%	69.8%	—	—	1.43
Sporting Gijón to concede in 1st half	34.4%	30.2%	—	—	3.32

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón clean sheet in 2nd half	53.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Sporting Gijón to concede in 2nd half	46.8%	47.5%	—	—	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón under 6.5 corners	79.7%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Sporting Gijón over 2.5 corners	78.2%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Sporting Gijón under 5.5 corners	68.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Sporting Gijón over 3.5 corners	62.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Sporting Gijón under 4.5 corners	54.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Sporting Gijón over 4.5 corners	45.9%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Sporting Gijón under 3.5 corners	37.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Sporting Gijón over 5.5 corners	31.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Sporting Gijón under 2.5 corners	21.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Sporting Gijón over 6.5 corners	20.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón under 3.5 goals	96.8%	96.4%	93.7%	1.03×	1.04
Sporting Gijón under 2.5 goals	88.3%	87.3%	82.8%	1.05×	1.15
Sporting Gijón over 0.5 goals	69.4%	68.0%	77.6%	0.88×	1.47
Sporting Gijón under 1.5 goals	66.8%	68.0%	58.0%	1.17×	1.47
Sporting Gijón over 1.5 goals	33.2%	32.0%	42.0%	0.76×	3.12
Sporting Gijón under 0.5 goals	30.6%	32.0%	22.4%	1.43×	3.12
Sporting Gijón over 2.5 goals	11.7%	12.7%	17.2%	0.74×	7.85
Sporting Gijón over 3.5 goals	3.2%	3.6%	6.3%	0.58×	27.52

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón under 1.5 in 1st half	90.7%	94.6%	—	—	1.06
Sporting Gijón under 0.5 in 1st half	60.1%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Sporting Gijón over 0.5 in 1st half	39.9%	35.5%	—	—	2.82
Sporting Gijón over 1.5 in 1st half	9.3%	5.4%	—	—	18.47

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón scores equally in both	42.0%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Sporting Gijón scores more in 2nd half	34.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Sporting Gijón scores more in 1st half	23.7%	21.3%	—	—	4.70

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Las Palmas (home no bet)	53.7%	51.4%	51.4%	1.00×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	46.3%	48.6%	48.6%	1.00×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón even goals	54.7%	50.7%	51.7%	0.98×	1.97
Sporting Gijón odd goals	45.3%	49.3%	48.3%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	39.4%	39.5%	—	—	2.53
HT 1-0	20.1%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	16.7%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 1-1	8.4%	6.9%	—	—	14.46
HT 2-0	5.1%	6.9%	—	—	14.51
HT 0-2	3.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.07
Any other HT score	2.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.14
HT 2-1	2.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.16
HT 1-2	1.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.18
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.27

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón at HT / Sporting Gijón at FT	22.2%	21.6%	—	—	4.62
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	18.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Las Palmas at HT / Las Palmas at FT	16.8%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Sporting Gijón at FT	15.4%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Las Palmas at FT	14.1%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Sporting Gijón at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.61
Las Palmas at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.63
Sporting Gijón at HT / Las Palmas at FT	1.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.72
Las Palmas at HT / Sporting Gijón at FT	1.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.73

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón to score last	47.5%	46.5%	—	—	2.15
Las Palmas to score last	42.2%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	10.4%	8.8%	—	—	11.41

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	89.6%	91.6%	—	—	1.09
Sporting Gijón to lead by 1 at any time	53.1%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Las Palmas to lead by 1 at any time	47.2%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	37.9%	34.6%	—	—	2.89
Sporting Gijón to lead by 2 at any time	21.2%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Las Palmas to lead by 2 at any time	16.8%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	11.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Sporting Gijón to lead by 3 at any time	6.7%	6.7%	—	—	14.95
Las Palmas to lead by 3 at any time	4.7%	1.7%	—	—	60.22

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón most corners	47.5%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Las Palmas most corners	40.6%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.0%	87.4%	85.8%	1.02×	1.14
1-4 goals	82.0%	83.4%	78.1%	1.07×	1.20
1-3 goals	70.8%	72.4%	62.8%	1.15×	1.38
2-6 goals	64.3%	63.3%	67.9%	0.93×	1.58
2-5 goals	62.5%	63.3%	64.4%	0.98×	1.58
2-4 goals	57.5%	59.1%	56.6%	1.04×	1.69
1-2 goals	50.9%	53.2%	41.8%	1.27×	1.88
2-3 goals	46.3%	48.5%	41.3%	1.17×	2.06
3-6 goals	37.9%	39.2%	47.7%	0.82×	2.55
3-5 goals	36.1%	39.2%	44.1%	0.89×	2.55
3-4 goals	31.1%	35.2%	36.4%	0.97×	2.84
4-6 goals	18.0%	18.8%	26.7%	0.70×	5.31
4-5 goals	16.1%	18.8%	23.2%	0.81×	5.31
5-6 goals	6.9%	8.9%	11.4%	0.78×	11.27
7+ goals	0.8%	2.6%	1.6%	1.62×	39.19

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón never behind	42.4%	48.5%	—	—	2.06
Las Palmas never behind	36.5%	44.0%	—	—	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	50.0%	50.9%	48.5%	1.05×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.0%	49.1%	51.5%	0.95×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	42.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.38

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.4%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.6%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.3%	95.4%	94.9%	1.01×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	92.3%	92.3%	87.1%	1.06×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	89.6%	87.6%	90.9%	0.96×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	81.2%	82.3%	71.8%	1.15×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	65.2%	66.3%	69.4%	0.96×	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	61.3%	61.7%	50.8%	1.21×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	38.7%	38.3%	49.2%	0.78×	2.61
Under 1.5 goals	34.8%	33.7%	30.6%	1.10×	2.97
Over 3.5 goals	18.8%	17.7%	28.2%	0.63×	5.65
Under 0.5 goals	10.4%	12.4%	9.1%	1.36×	8.07
Over 4.5 goals	7.7%	7.7%	12.9%	0.60×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	2.7%	4.6%	5.1%	0.89×	21.88

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.2%	97.2%	98.4%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	97.2%	97.2%	94.4%	1.03×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	91.4%	92.4%	84.8%	1.09×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	76.5%	75.9%	64.3%	1.18×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	52.6%	51.9%	61.6%	0.84×	1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	47.4%	48.1%	38.4%	1.25×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	23.5%	24.1%	35.7%	0.68×	4.14
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	8.6%	7.6%	15.2%	0.50×	13.14
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	2.8%	2.8%	5.6%	0.50×	35.57
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.8%	2.8%	1.6%	1.72×	35.63

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	93.2%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	76.2%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half	60.6%	63.1%	—	—	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	39.4%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
Over 1.5 in 1st half	23.8%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Over 2.5 in 1st half	6.8%	7.3%	—	—	13.73

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	85.5%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	73.0%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	62.5%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	37.5%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	27.0%	22.4%	—	—	4.46
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	14.5%	14.6%	—	—	6.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Las Palmas not to score in both halves	83.9%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Sporting Gijón not to score in both halves	80.4%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Sporting Gijón to score in both halves	19.6%	15.8%	—	—	6.33
Las Palmas to score in both halves	16.1%	15.6%	—	—	6.39

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	44.9%	46.6%	54.1%	0.86×	2.15
Only Sporting Gijón scores	24.5%	22.3%	23.6%	0.94×	4.49
Only Las Palmas scores	20.2%	22.2%	13.4%	1.66×	4.50
Neither team scores	10.4%	11.0%	9.1%	1.21×	9.07

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.4%	24.9%	20.3%	1.22×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	24.5%	22.6%	21.6%	1.05×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	19.9%	17.5%	21.1%	0.83×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	11.2%	12.1%	15.4%	0.79×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	10.4%	12.1%	9.1%	1.33×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	5.0%	4.5%	7.9%	0.57×	22.36
6 or more goals	2.7%	4.5%	5.1%	0.87×	22.40

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	39.4%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
1 goal in 1st half	36.8%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	17.0%	15.6%	—	—	6.39
3+ goals in 1st half	6.8%	7.3%	—	—	13.73

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	37.5%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
1 goal in 2nd half	35.6%	38.9%	—	—	2.57
No goals in 2nd half	27.0%	29.2%	—	—	3.43

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Las Palmas not to win both halves	93.5%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Sporting Gijón not to win both halves	90.9%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Sporting Gijón to win both halves	9.1%	5.9%	—	—	16.87
Las Palmas to win both halves	6.5%	5.9%	—	—	17.05

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Las Palmas to win neither half	54.9%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Sporting Gijón to win either half	51.4%	54.2%	—	—	1.84
Sporting Gijón to win neither half	48.6%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
Las Palmas to win either half	45.1%	45.7%	—	—	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Las Palmas not to win to nil	79.8%	78.2%	86.6%	0.90×	1.28
Sporting Gijón not to win to nil	75.5%	78.1%	76.4%	1.02×	1.28
Sporting Gijón to win to nil	24.5%	21.9%	23.6%	0.93×	4.57
Las Palmas to win to nil	20.2%	21.8%	13.4%	1.63×	4.58

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	28.1%	27.9%	26.5%	1.05×	3.59
Sporting Gijón by 1	22.7%	24.1%	26.0%	0.93×	4.15
Las Palmas by 1	20.2%	24.1%	17.9%	1.34×	4.15
Sporting Gijón by 2	11.1%	11.8%	12.1%	0.97×	8.51
Las Palmas by 2	8.8%	7.2%	7.1%	1.01×	13.90
Sporting Gijón by 3+	5.4%	7.2%	7.7%	0.94×	13.92
Las Palmas by 3+	3.7%	2.7%	3.2%	0.84×	36.79