St Johnstone v Celtic — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 9 September 2026 · SCO-Premiership · 2627

SCO-Premiership results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

St Johnstone

0–1

19:00 UTC

Celtic

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 9 Sep, 11:32 · 7h before kick-off

St Johnstone win

11.0%

model 14.8%

Draw

19.6%

model 18.6%

Celtic win

69.4%

model 66.6%

112069

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (160 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

0-2 9.8%
1-2 9.8%
1-1 8.5%
0-1 8.5%
0-3 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	63.9%	Under 2.5	36.1%
BTTS yes	56.7%	BTTS no	43.3%
St Johnstone 1+	63.0%	St Johnstone 2+	26.2%
Celtic 1+	90.0%	Celtic 2+	66.9%

Expected goals 0.99 – 2.30. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

81/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Celtic (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 31%

69.1% fair odds 1.45

strong signal · 1062 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 393 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Celtic carry the stronger rating, 1769 Elo against 1355.
Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Celtic have an estimated 69.4% win probability, against 19.6% for the draw and 11.0% for St Johnstone. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.99 for St Johnstone and 2.30 for Celtic.

Why St Johnstone

Nothing in the data singles out St Johnstone.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 19.6%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Celtic can win

Celtic carry the stronger rating, 1769 Elo against 1355. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for St Johnstone, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Celtic, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

St Johnstone: 54% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Celtic: 64% possession, 22.2 shots a match, 9.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Celtic are the model's most likely outcome at 69.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-2 at 9.8%. Confidence 81/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	151967	0.99–2.30	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
ai-blend-oos	212059	1.20–2.15	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
dc-xg	111673	0.85–2.46	0-2 11%	64%	52%	Away ✓
dc-xg-oos	111673	0.85–2.46	0-2 11%	64%	52%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic to win	72.6%	73.5%	30.9%	2.38×	1.36
Draw	16.5%	19.4%	23.4%	0.83×	5.15
St Johnstone to win	11.0%	13.3%	45.9%	0.29×	7.50

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic & not both score	39.0%	33.2%	14.7%	2.26×	3.01
Celtic & both teams score	33.6%	29.7%	16.4%	1.81×	3.37
Draw & both teams score	12.8%	13.3%	17.8%	0.74×	7.54
St Johnstone & both teams score	6.1%	8.4%	18.7%	0.45×	11.94
St Johnstone & not both score	4.9%	4.9%	27.4%	0.18×	20.32
Draw & not both score	3.7%	4.9%	5.8%	0.85×	20.35

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic & over 1.5	63.6%	54.5%	24.5%	2.23×	1.84
Celtic & over 2.5	52.6%	48.6%	20.5%	2.37×	2.06
Celtic & under 3.5	38.4%	34.8%	22.4%	1.56×	2.87
Celtic & over 3.5	34.1%	30.8%	8.7%	3.54×	3.24
Celtic & under 2.5	20.0%	18.0%	10.6%	1.70×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	12.8%	12.9%	17.8%	0.72×	7.76
Draw & under 2.5	11.4%	12.9%	14.9%	0.86×	7.76
Draw & under 3.5	11.4%	12.9%	14.9%	0.86×	7.76
Celtic & under 1.5	8.9%	7.9%	6.6%	1.19×	12.65
St Johnstone & over 1.5	7.9%	7.9%	36.7%	0.22×	12.65
St Johnstone & under 3.5	8.0%	7.9%	30.1%	0.26×	12.65
St Johnstone & over 2.5	6.6%	7.9%	28.2%	0.28×	12.65
Draw & over 2.5	5.1%	7.9%	8.7%	0.91×	12.65
Draw & over 3.5	5.1%	7.9%	8.7%	0.91×	12.65
St Johnstone & under 2.5	4.4%	4.8%	17.8%	0.27×	20.85
St Johnstone & under 1.5	3.1%	4.8%	9.3%	0.51×	20.86
Draw & under 1.5	3.7%	4.8%	5.8%	0.83×	20.86
St Johnstone & over 3.5	3.0%	4.8%	16.0%	0.30×	20.86

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic (1UP)	82.1%	87.0%	—	—	1.15
St Johnstone (1UP)	28.5%	27.0%	—	—	3.70

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic (2UP)	72.6%	80.5%	—	—	1.24
St Johnstone (2UP)	11.0%	13.1%	—	—	7.61

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic to win 2nd half	61.8%	59.0%	—	—	1.69
2nd half drawn	26.2%	26.4%	—	—	3.79
St Johnstone to win 2nd half	12.0%	12.2%	—	—	8.20

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.1%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Celtic under 1.5 in 2nd half	56.7%	55.4%	—	—	1.81
Celtic over 1.5 in 2nd half	43.3%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Celtic under 0.5 in 2nd half	22.9%	20.5%	—	—	4.89

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St Johnstone under 1.5 in 2nd half	91.4%	93.5%	—	—	1.07
St Johnstone under 0.5 in 2nd half	61.5%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
St Johnstone over 0.5 in 2nd half	38.5%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
St Johnstone over 1.5 in 2nd half	8.6%	6.5%	—	—	15.47

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic (+2.5)	99.2%	96.3%	87.8%	1.10×	1.04
Celtic (+1.5)	96.7%	96.3%	73.4%	1.31×	1.04
Celtic (+0.5)	89.0%	88.6%	54.1%	1.64×	1.13
Celtic (-0.5)	72.6%	73.7%	30.9%	2.39×	1.36
St Johnstone (+0.5)	27.4%	26.3%	69.1%	0.38×	3.81
St Johnstone (-0.5)	11.0%	11.4%	45.9%	0.25×	8.74
St Johnstone (-1.5)	3.3%	3.7%	26.6%	0.14×	26.85
St Johnstone (-2.5)	0.8%	3.7%	12.2%	0.30×	27.01

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic to concede	57.3%	62.5%	79.7%	0.78×	1.60
Celtic clean sheet	42.7%	37.5%	20.3%	1.84×	2.67

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic clean sheet in 1st half	69.3%	69.6%	—	—	1.44
Celtic to concede in 1st half	30.7%	30.4%	—	—	3.29

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic clean sheet in 2nd half	61.5%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
Celtic to concede in 2nd half	38.5%	39.8%	—	—	2.51

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic over 2.5 corners	92.4%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Celtic over 3.5 corners	84.0%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Celtic over 4.5 corners	72.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Celtic over 5.5 corners	59.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Celtic under 6.5 corners	53.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Celtic over 6.5 corners	46.7%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Celtic under 5.5 corners	40.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Celtic under 4.5 corners	27.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Celtic under 3.5 corners	16.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
Celtic under 2.5 corners	7.6%	10.0%	—	—	9.95

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic over 0.5 goals	91.4%	92.3%	67.0%	1.38×	1.08
Celtic under 3.5 goals	76.7%	76.2%	96.3%	0.79×	1.31
Celtic over 1.5 goals	70.4%	71.8%	36.9%	1.95×	1.39
Celtic under 2.5 goals	55.5%	59.4%	85.5%	0.69×	1.68
Celtic over 2.5 goals	44.5%	40.6%	14.5%	2.80×	2.46
Celtic under 1.5 goals	29.6%	28.2%	63.1%	0.45×	3.55
Celtic over 3.5 goals	23.3%	23.8%	3.7%	6.37×	4.21
Celtic under 0.5 goals	8.6%	7.7%	33.0%	0.23×	12.99

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic under 1.5 in 1st half	74.2%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Celtic over 0.5 in 1st half	62.6%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
Celtic under 0.5 in 1st half	37.4%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
Celtic over 1.5 in 1st half	25.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic scores more in 2nd half	48.5%	48.5%	—	—	2.06
Celtic scores equally in both	26.3%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Celtic scores more in 1st half	25.2%	26.1%	—	—	3.84

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	60.0%	57.4%	33.8%	1.70×	1.74
St Johnstone (away no bet)	40.0%	42.6%	66.2%	0.64×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic even goals	50.4%	52.8%	57.7%	0.92×	1.90
Celtic odd goals	49.6%	47.2%	42.3%	1.12×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	77.2%	82.0%	—	—	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	22.8%	18.0%	—	—	5.56

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	74.6%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	25.4%	32.5%	—	—	3.08

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	70.5%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Celtic to score 2+ in a row	63.8%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row	36.9%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Celtic to score 3+ in a row	35.0%	29.2%	—	—	3.43
St Johnstone to score 2+ in a row	12.8%	12.2%	—	—	8.23
St Johnstone to score 3+ in a row	2.2%	2.5%	—	—	39.28

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic corners (+3.5)	94.6%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Celtic corners (+2.5)	91.0%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Celtic corners (+1.5)	85.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
St Johnstone corners (+3.5)	61.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Celtic corners (-1.5)	59.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
St Johnstone corners (+2.5)	51.1%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Celtic corners (-2.5)	48.9%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
St Johnstone corners (+1.5)	40.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Celtic corners (-3.5)	38.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
St Johnstone corners (-1.5)	14.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
St Johnstone corners (-2.5)	9.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.57
St Johnstone corners (-3.5)	5.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	38.2%	34.0%	—	—	2.95
0-8 corners	31.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	30.6%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	78.2%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 12.5 corners	70.6%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	68.8%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	61.8%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	58.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	51.9%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	48.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	41.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 11.5 corners	38.2%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
Under 8.5 corners	31.2%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 12.5 corners	29.4%	27.4%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	21.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-2	11.0%	11.4%	4.1%	2.76×	8.74
Any other score	10.4%	11.4%	4.1%	2.76×	8.74
0-1	8.9%	7.4%	6.6%	1.12×	13.50
0-3	9.0%	7.4%	3.3%	2.23×	13.50
1-2	9.4%	7.4%	8.9%	0.83×	13.50
1-1	7.7%	7.4%	9.3%	0.79×	13.50
1-3	7.7%	7.4%	3.1%	2.38×	13.50
0-4	5.6%	7.4%	0.4%	17.85×	13.50
1-4	4.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.07×	58.29
0-0	3.7%	1.7%	5.8%	0.30×	58.30
1-0	3.1%	1.7%	9.3%	0.18×	58.30
2-0	1.3%	1.7%	8.7%	0.20×	58.31
2-1	3.3%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.30
2-2	4.0%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.30
2-3	3.3%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.30
2-4	2.0%	1.7%	0.8%	2.07×	58.31
3-0	0.4%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.32
3-1	0.9%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.31
3-2	1.1%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.31
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.31
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.4%	4.13×	58.32
4-0	0.1%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.32
4-1	0.2%	1.7%	1.5%	1.18×	58.32
4-2	0.2%	1.7%	0.6%	2.76×	58.32
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.07×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	8.27×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic (2nd half DNB)	83.7%	82.0%	—	—	1.22
St Johnstone (2nd half DNB)	16.3%	18.0%	—	—	5.55

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic leading at HT (DNB)	78.8%	78.1%	—	—	1.28
St Johnstone leading at HT (DNB)	21.2%	21.9%	—	—	4.56

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic or draw (X2)	89.0%	86.7%	54.1%	1.60×	1.15
St Johnstone or Celtic (12)	83.5%	80.6%	76.6%	1.05×	1.24
St Johnstone or draw (1X)	27.4%	26.5%	69.1%	0.38×	3.77

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic or draw at HT	86.5%	88.1%	—	—	1.14
St Johnstone or Celtic at HT	63.8%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
St Johnstone or draw at HT	49.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic or draw (1UP)	89.0%	92.0%	—	—	1.09
St Johnstone or draw (1UP)	28.5%	32.0%	—	—	3.13

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic or draw in 2nd half	88.0%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
St Johnstone or Celtic in 2nd half	73.8%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
St Johnstone or draw in 2nd half	38.2%	41.0%	—	—	2.44

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	47.2%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
A half drawn	52.8%	49.9%	—	—	2.00

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic (DNB)	86.9%	87.0%	40.3%	2.16×	1.15
St Johnstone (DNB)	13.1%	13.0%	59.7%	0.22×	7.71

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic to score first	71.5%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
St Johnstone to score first	24.8%	23.3%	—	—	4.28
No goal scored	3.7%	4.3%	—	—	23.34

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.5%	51.4%	52.5%	0.98×	1.95
Not both teams to score	47.5%	48.7%	47.5%	1.02×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.8%	41.7%	43.4%	0.96×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	28.1%	33.6%	33.8%	0.99×	2.98
Not both score & over 2.5	19.5%	21.7%	13.9%	1.56×	4.61
Both score & under 2.5	7.7%	8.3%	9.3%	0.89×	12.00

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.2%	85.6%	83.8%	1.02×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.8%	14.4%	16.2%	0.89×	6.93

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.3%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.7%	26.1%	—	—	3.84

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.8%	59.3%	—	—	1.69
Both score 2nd half only	24.0%	20.9%	—	—	4.79
Both score 1st half only	13.5%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score in both halves	5.7%	6.7%	—	—	14.86

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.8%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	19.2%	17.6%	—	—	5.68

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	63.7%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
A half without a goal	36.3%	41.2%	—	—	2.43

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	42.1%	42.1%	45.9%	0.92×	2.38
4-6 goals	37.1%	35.1%	31.3%	1.12×	2.85
0-1 goals	15.7%	20.3%	21.4%	0.95×	4.93
7+ goals	5.1%	7.6%	1.9%	4.06×	13.21

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic to score 3+	44.5%	37.2%	14.5%	2.56×	2.69
Celtic to score exactly 2	25.9%	27.4%	22.6%	1.21×	3.65
Celtic to score exactly 1	21.0%	22.4%	30.3%	0.74×	4.47
Celtic to score exactly 0	8.6%	8.5%	33.0%	0.26×	11.71

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St Johnstone to score exactly 1	36.3%	35.6%	31.1%	1.14×	2.81
St Johnstone to score exactly 0	42.7%	34.9%	20.3%	1.72×	2.86
St Johnstone to score exactly 2	15.5%	18.9%	25.1%	0.75×	5.29
St Johnstone to score 3+	5.5%	10.3%	23.9%	0.43×	9.70

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic leading at HT	50.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Draw at HT	36.2%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
St Johnstone leading at HT	13.5%	11.9%	—	—	8.37

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic -1: 2	50.3%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Celtic -1: 1	27.4%	26.6%	—	—	3.77
Celtic -1: X	22.3%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic (0:1)	89.0%	89.4%	54.1%	1.65×	1.12
Draw (0:1)	7.7%	9.3%	19.5%	0.48×	10.77
St Johnstone (0:1)	3.3%	5.8%	26.6%	0.22×	17.39

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic (0:2)	96.7%	94.1%	73.4%	1.28×	1.06
Draw (0:2)	2.5%	3.8%	14.5%	0.26×	26.46
St Johnstone (0:2)	0.8%	3.8%	12.2%	0.31×	26.56

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic (0:3)	99.2%	96.6%	87.8%	1.10×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	0.6%	2.4%	6.8%	0.35×	42.20
St Johnstone (0:3)	0.1%	2.4%	5.6%	0.42×	42.22

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic (0:4)	99.9%	98.1%	94.4%	1.04×	1.02
St Johnstone (0:4)	0.0%	1.2%	1.0%	1.15×	83.75
Draw (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	4.8%	0.25×	83.74

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic (1:0)	50.3%	53.9%	13.5%	3.99×	1.86
St Johnstone (1:0)	27.4%	25.1%	69.1%	0.36×	3.99
Draw (1:0)	22.3%	21.8%	17.6%	1.24×	4.58

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St Johnstone (2:0)	49.7%	48.8%	86.5%	0.56×	2.05
Celtic (2:0)	29.2%	24.2%	6.0%	4.02×	4.14
Draw (2:0)	21.1%	19.1%	7.7%	2.49×	5.23

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	51.6%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	26.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.78
Halves equal	22.0%	24.1%	—	—	4.16

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St Johnstone to concede	91.4%	93.0%	67.0%	1.39×	1.08
St Johnstone clean sheet	8.6%	7.0%	33.0%	0.21×	14.31

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St Johnstone to concede in 1st half	62.6%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
St Johnstone clean sheet in 1st half	37.4%	35.9%	—	—	2.79

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St Johnstone to concede in 2nd half	77.1%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
St Johnstone clean sheet in 2nd half	22.9%	17.1%	—	—	5.85

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St Johnstone under 6.5 corners	85.8%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
St Johnstone under 5.5 corners	75.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
St Johnstone over 2.5 corners	72.9%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
St Johnstone under 4.5 corners	62.1%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
St Johnstone over 3.5 corners	54.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
St Johnstone under 3.5 corners	45.1%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
St Johnstone over 4.5 corners	37.9%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
St Johnstone under 2.5 corners	27.1%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
St Johnstone over 5.5 corners	24.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
St Johnstone over 6.5 corners	14.2%	13.7%	—	—	7.30

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St Johnstone under 3.5 goals	98.9%	96.4%	92.1%	1.05×	1.04
St Johnstone under 2.5 goals	94.5%	92.2%	76.1%	1.21×	1.08
St Johnstone under 1.5 goals	79.0%	77.7%	51.2%	1.52×	1.29
St Johnstone over 0.5 goals	57.3%	58.8%	79.7%	0.74×	1.70
St Johnstone under 0.5 goals	42.7%	41.2%	20.3%	2.03×	2.43
St Johnstone over 1.5 goals	21.0%	22.3%	48.8%	0.46×	4.49
St Johnstone over 2.5 goals	5.5%	7.8%	23.9%	0.33×	12.90
St Johnstone over 3.5 goals	1.1%	3.7%	7.9%	0.46×	27.40

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St Johnstone under 1.5 in 1st half	94.7%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
St Johnstone under 0.5 in 1st half	69.3%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
St Johnstone over 0.5 in 1st half	30.7%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
St Johnstone over 1.5 in 1st half	5.3%	4.4%	—	—	22.66

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St Johnstone scores equally in both	50.6%	55.9%	—	—	1.79
St Johnstone scores more in 2nd half	28.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.57
St Johnstone scores more in 1st half	20.5%	21.5%	—	—	4.66

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic (home no bet)	81.5%	85.7%	56.9%	1.51×	1.17
Draw (home no bet)	18.5%	14.3%	43.1%	0.33×	7.01

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St Johnstone even goals	59.1%	55.4%	51.7%	1.07×	1.81
St Johnstone odd goals	40.9%	44.6%	48.3%	0.92×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	25.9%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
HT 0-1	25.5%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
HT 0-2	12.5%	10.9%	—	—	9.15
HT 1-0	9.5%	7.1%	—	—	13.99
HT 1-1	9.4%	7.1%	—	—	13.99
Any other HT score	8.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.01
HT 1-2	4.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.37
HT 2-0	1.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.58
HT 2-1	1.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.58
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.64

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic at HT / Celtic at FT	46.3%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Draw at HT / Celtic at FT	22.3%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	9.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.60
St Johnstone at HT / St Johnstone at FT	5.8%	6.0%	—	—	16.71
Draw at HT / St Johnstone at FT	4.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.75
St Johnstone at HT / Celtic at FT	4.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.77
St Johnstone at HT / Draw at FT	3.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.78
Celtic at HT / Draw at FT	3.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.79
Celtic at HT / St Johnstone at FT	0.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.89

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic to score last	71.5%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
St Johnstone to score last	24.8%	26.9%	—	—	3.72
No goal scored	3.7%	4.3%	—	—	23.34

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.3%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Celtic to lead by 1 at any time	82.1%	87.1%	—	—	1.15
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	63.1%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Celtic to lead by 2 at any time	56.7%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	34.0%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
Celtic to lead by 3 at any time	32.6%	29.4%	—	—	3.41
St Johnstone to lead by 1 at any time	28.5%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
St Johnstone to lead by 2 at any time	6.8%	6.6%	—	—	15.13
St Johnstone to lead by 3 at any time	1.4%	1.6%	—	—	63.05

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic most corners	69.7%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
St Johnstone most corners	21.4%	25.8%	—	—	3.88
Corners level	8.9%	8.4%	—	—	11.88

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.5%	83.4%	86.9%	0.96×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.2%	78.6%	77.0%	1.02×	1.27
1-4 goals	72.4%	72.4%	79.7%	0.91×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.5%	72.4%	71.4%	1.01×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.4%	63.4%	64.1%	0.99×	1.58
3-6 goals	59.2%	59.1%	55.4%	1.07×	1.69
1-3 goals	54.2%	53.2%	61.4%	0.87×	1.88
3-5 goals	52.5%	53.1%	49.8%	1.07×	1.88
2-3 goals	42.1%	43.6%	45.9%	0.95×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.4%	43.6%	42.5%	1.02×	2.30
4-6 goals	37.1%	39.2%	31.3%	1.25×	2.55
1-2 goals	32.1%	35.3%	37.3%	0.95×	2.83
4-5 goals	30.4%	35.3%	25.7%	1.37×	2.83
5-6 goals	18.8%	18.7%	13.1%	1.43×	5.34
7+ goals	5.1%	8.8%	1.9%	4.73×	11.34

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic never behind	67.9%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
St Johnstone never behind	14.2%	13.2%	—	—	7.58

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	48.5%	1.05×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	51.5%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.4%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.6%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.0%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.0%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.3%	95.4%	94.2%	1.01×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	88.2%	87.6%	92.5%	0.95×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	84.3%	82.3%	78.6%	1.05×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	76.1%	77.4%	85.3%	0.91×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	64.2%	61.7%	57.1%	1.08×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	57.8%	58.7%	67.0%	0.88×	1.70
Over 3.5 goals	42.2%	41.3%	33.0%	1.25×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	35.8%	38.3%	42.9%	0.89×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	23.9%	22.6%	14.7%	1.54×	4.42
Under 1.5 goals	15.7%	17.7%	21.4%	0.83×	5.66
Over 5.5 goals	11.8%	12.4%	7.5%	1.66×	8.08
Under 0.5 goals	3.7%	4.6%	5.8%	0.79×	21.92

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.6%	92.4%	98.0%	0.94×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	86.6%	86.7%	91.9%	0.94×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	80.4%	81.0%	72.8%	1.11×	1.24
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	70.8%	72.5%	82.0%	0.88×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.1%	52.0%	43.4%	1.20×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.9%	48.0%	56.6%	0.85×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	29.2%	27.5%	18.0%	1.53×	3.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	19.6%	19.0%	27.2%	0.70×	5.26
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	13.4%	13.3%	8.1%	1.65×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.4%	7.6%	2.0%	3.84×	13.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	84.6%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	74.1%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	60.9%	63.5%	—	—	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	39.1%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Under 0.5 in 1st half	25.9%	28.7%	—	—	3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half	15.4%	13.7%	—	—	7.33

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	85.9%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	68.8%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	58.3%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	41.7%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	31.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	14.1%	14.7%	—	—	6.81

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St Johnstone not to score in both halves	88.2%	85.9%	—	—	1.17
Celtic not to score in both halves	51.7%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Celtic to score in both halves	48.3%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
St Johnstone to score in both halves	11.8%	14.1%	—	—	7.08

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.5%	53.9%	52.5%	1.03×	1.86
Only Celtic scores	39.0%	39.9%	14.7%	2.71×	2.51
Only St Johnstone scores	4.9%	4.7%	27.4%	0.17×	21.40
Neither team scores	3.7%	4.7%	5.8%	0.80×	21.45

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.6%	24.3%	0.93×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	20.1%	22.6%	21.8%	1.04×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	18.3%	17.4%	18.5%	0.94×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	12.0%	12.1%	15.8%	0.77×	8.28
Exactly 5 goals	12.1%	12.1%	7.5%	1.62×	8.28
6 or more goals	11.8%	12.1%	7.5%	1.62×	8.28
Exactly 0 goals	3.7%	4.5%	5.8%	0.77×	22.42

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.0%	35.9%	—	—	2.78
No goals in 1st half	25.9%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
2 goals in 1st half	23.6%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
3+ goals in 1st half	15.4%	15.2%	—	—	6.59

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	58.3%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
1 goal in 2nd half	27.6%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
No goals in 2nd half	14.1%	14.5%	—	—	6.88

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St Johnstone not to win both halves	98.4%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
Celtic not to win both halves	68.9%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Celtic to win both halves	31.1%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
St Johnstone to win both halves	1.6%	2.7%	—	—	36.59

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic to win either half	81.0%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
St Johnstone to win neither half	76.1%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
St Johnstone to win either half	23.9%	20.4%	—	—	4.89
Celtic to win neither half	19.0%	17.3%	—	—	5.79

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St Johnstone not to win to nil	95.1%	96.0%	72.6%	1.32×	1.04
Celtic not to win to nil	61.0%	66.7%	85.3%	0.78×	1.50
Celtic to win to nil	39.0%	33.3%	14.7%	2.26×	3.00
St Johnstone to win to nil	4.9%	4.0%	27.4%	0.15×	25.01

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celtic by 3+	29.2%	27.9%	6.0%	4.63×	3.59
Celtic by 1	22.3%	24.2%	17.6%	1.37×	4.14
Celtic by 2	21.1%	24.2%	7.7%	3.15×	4.14
Draw	16.5%	16.9%	23.4%	0.72×	5.91
St Johnstone by 1	7.7%	7.2%	19.5%	0.37×	13.81
St Johnstone by 2	2.5%	2.7%	14.5%	0.19×	36.68
St Johnstone by 3+	0.8%	2.7%	12.2%	0.22×	36.73

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.