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St Johnstone v Dundee — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · SCO-Premiership · 2627

SCO-Premiership results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
St Johnstone win
39.9%
model 39.5%
Draw
28.9%
model 25.6%
Dundee win
31.3%
model 34.9%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.2%
  2. 1-0 9.7%
  3. 0-1 9.0%
  4. 2-1 8.5%
  5. 1-2 7.9%

Goals

Over 2.549.9% Under 2.550.1%
BTTS yes54.1% BTTS no45.9%
St Johnstone 1+75.0% St Johnstone 2+40.3%
Dundee 1+72.4% Dundee 2+36.8%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.29. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
85/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Under 2.5 goals
Over/Under · usually 43%
52.8% fair odds 1.89
moderate signal · 1367 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Dundee (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 74%
83.6% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out St Johnstone.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

St Johnstone have an estimated 39.9% win probability, against 31.3% for Dundee and 28.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.39 for St Johnstone and 1.29 for Dundee.

Why St Johnstone

Nothing in the data singles out St Johnstone.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.39 to 1.29. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Dundee can win

Dundee carry the stronger rating, 1461 Elo against 1351.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for St Johnstone, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Dundee, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

St Johnstone: 51% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Dundee: 39% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

St Johnstone are the model's most likely outcome at 39.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.2%. Confidence 85/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.39–1.29 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.30–1.29 1-1 12% 48% 53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone to win 37.1% 36.3% 45.9% 0.79× 2.75
Dundee to win 36.8% 36.3% 31.0% 1.17× 2.75
Draw 26.1% 27.9% 23.3% 1.19× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone & not both score 20.1% 21.8% 27.5% 0.79× 4.59
Dundee & not both score 19.9% 18.0% 14.9% 1.21× 5.56
Draw & both teams score 18.8% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.56
St Johnstone & both teams score 17.0% 18.0% 18.6% 0.97× 5.57
Dundee & both teams score 16.8% 18.0% 16.3% 1.10× 5.57
Draw & not both score 7.3% 8.3% 5.8% 1.44× 12.00
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone & over 1.5 27.2% 26.1% 36.6% 0.71× 3.84
St Johnstone & under 3.5 27.1% 26.1% 30.2% 0.86× 3.84
Dundee & over 1.5 26.9% 26.1% 24.4% 1.07× 3.84
Dundee & under 3.5 26.9% 26.1% 22.5% 1.16× 3.84
St Johnstone & over 2.5 20.9% 21.6% 28.1% 0.77× 4.63
Dundee & over 2.5 20.7% 21.6% 20.5% 1.06× 4.63
Draw & under 2.5 19.8% 18.0% 14.9% 1.21× 5.55
Draw & under 3.5 19.8% 18.0% 14.9% 1.21× 5.55
Draw & over 1.5 18.8% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.55
St Johnstone & under 2.5 16.2% 18.0% 18.0% 1.00× 5.56
Dundee & under 2.5 16.1% 18.0% 10.7% 1.68× 5.56
St Johnstone & over 3.5 10.0% 7.9% 15.9% 0.50× 12.63
St Johnstone & under 1.5 9.9% 7.9% 9.5% 0.83× 12.63
Dundee & under 1.5 9.8% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.63
Dundee & over 3.5 9.9% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 7.3% 7.9% 5.8% 1.37× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 6.4% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 6.4% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone (1UP) 53.3% 52.4% — — 1.91
Dundee (1UP) 53.0% 52.4% — — 1.91
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone (2UP) 37.1% 37.3% — — 2.68
Dundee (2UP) 36.8% 37.3% — — 2.68
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 36.4% 36.4% — — 2.75
Dundee to win 2nd half 32.8% 34.0% — — 2.94
St Johnstone to win 2nd half 30.8% 34.0% — — 2.94
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee under 1.5 in 2nd half 81.8% 84.1% — — 1.19
Dundee over 0.5 in 2nd half 53.9% 52.5% — — 1.91
Dundee under 0.5 in 2nd half 46.1% 47.5% — — 2.11
Dundee over 1.5 in 2nd half 18.2% 15.9% — — 6.28
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone under 1.5 in 2nd half 83.0% 82.4% — — 1.21
St Johnstone over 0.5 in 2nd half 52.3% 55.0% — — 1.82
St Johnstone under 0.5 in 2nd half 47.7% 45.0% — — 2.22
St Johnstone over 1.5 in 2nd half 17.0% 17.6% — — 5.69
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (+2.5) 94.3% 92.1% 87.8% 1.05× 1.09
Dundee (+1.5) 83.6% 82.6% 73.6% 1.12× 1.21
St Johnstone (+0.5) 63.2% 63.0% 69.0% 0.91× 1.59
Dundee (+0.5) 62.9% 63.0% 54.1% 1.16× 1.59
St Johnstone (-0.5) 37.1% 37.0% 45.9% 0.81× 2.70
Dundee (-0.5) 36.8% 37.0% 31.0% 1.20× 2.70
St Johnstone (-1.5) 16.4% 17.4% 26.4% 0.66× 5.74
St Johnstone (-2.5) 5.7% 7.9% 12.2% 0.65× 12.72
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee to concede 72.7% 76.7% 79.5% 0.96× 1.30
Dundee clean sheet 27.3% 23.3% 20.5% 1.14× 4.29
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee clean sheet in 1st half 57.2% 56.5% — — 1.77
Dundee to concede in 1st half 42.8% 43.5% — — 2.30
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee to concede in 2nd half 52.3% 54.5% — — 1.84
Dundee clean sheet in 2nd half 47.7% 45.5% — — 2.20
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee under 6.5 corners 82.9% 81.4% — — 1.23
Dundee over 2.5 corners 76.0% 76.0% — — 1.32
Dundee under 5.5 corners 72.2% 71.6% — — 1.40
Dundee over 3.5 corners 59.0% 57.2% — — 1.75
Dundee under 4.5 corners 57.9% 57.2% — — 1.75
Dundee over 4.5 corners 42.1% 42.8% — — 2.34
Dundee under 3.5 corners 41.0% 42.8% — — 2.34
Dundee over 5.5 corners 27.8% 28.4% — — 3.52
Dundee under 2.5 corners 24.0% 24.0% — — 4.17
Dundee over 6.5 corners 17.1% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee under 3.5 goals 95.8% 97.5% 96.3% 1.01× 1.03
Dundee under 2.5 goals 85.9% 87.8% 85.5% 1.03× 1.14
Dundee over 0.5 goals 72.5% 71.8% 66.9% 1.07× 1.39
Dundee under 1.5 goals 63.0% 63.2% 63.2% 1.00× 1.58
Dundee over 1.5 goals 37.0% 36.8% 36.8% 1.00× 2.72
Dundee under 0.5 goals 27.5% 28.2% 33.1% 0.85× 3.55
Dundee over 2.5 goals 14.1% 12.2% 14.5% 0.84× 8.19
Dundee over 3.5 goals 4.2% 2.5% 3.7% 0.68× 39.75
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee under 1.5 in 1st half 90.5% 93.9% — — 1.07
Dundee under 0.5 in 1st half 59.6% 62.5% — — 1.60
Dundee over 0.5 in 1st half 40.4% 37.5% — — 2.67
Dundee over 1.5 in 1st half 9.5% 6.1% — — 16.29
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee scores equally in both 39.6% 37.4% — — 2.67
Dundee scores more in 2nd half 38.2% 37.4% — — 2.68
Dundee scores more in 1st half 22.2% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone (away no bet) 58.7% 57.4% 66.3% 0.87× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 41.3% 42.6% 33.7% 1.26× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee even goals 53.8% 52.6% 57.6% 0.91× 1.90
Dundee odd goals 46.2% 47.4% 42.4% 1.12× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 86.9% 87.9% — — 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 13.1% 12.1% — — 8.24
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 60.8% 57.4% — — 1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals 39.2% 42.6% — — 2.35
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 52.7% 50.9% — — 1.96
St Johnstone to score 2+ in a row 29.3% 25.0% — — 4.00
Dundee to score 2+ in a row 29.1% 25.0% — — 4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row 17.4% 16.1% — — 6.19
St Johnstone to score 3+ in a row 8.9% 5.5% — — 18.07
Dundee to score 3+ in a row 8.8% 5.5% — — 18.08
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone corners (+3.5) 88.4% 84.5% — — 1.18
St Johnstone corners (+2.5) 81.7% 79.8% — — 1.25
Dundee corners (+3.5) 80.2% 79.8% — — 1.25
St Johnstone corners (+1.5) 73.0% 70.8% — — 1.41
Dundee corners (+2.5) 71.4% 70.8% — — 1.41
Dundee corners (+1.5) 60.8% 61.8% — — 1.62
St Johnstone corners (-1.5) 39.2% 38.2% — — 2.62
St Johnstone corners (-2.5) 28.6% 29.2% — — 3.42
Dundee corners (-1.5) 27.0% 29.2% — — 3.42
St Johnstone corners (-3.5) 19.8% 20.2% — — 4.94
Dundee corners (-2.5) 18.3% 20.2% — — 4.95
Dundee corners (-3.5) 11.6% 15.5% — — 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 45.1% 41.7% — — 2.40
9-11 corners 30.6% 33.2% — — 3.01
12+ corners 24.3% 25.7% — — 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 82.8% 80.7% — — 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 75.7% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 66.8% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 7.5 corners 66.3% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 9.5 corners 56.4% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 54.9% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 8.5 corners 45.1% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 43.6% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 7.5 corners 33.7% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 10.5 corners 33.2% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 24.3% 23.4% — — 4.27
Over 12.5 corners 17.2% 19.3% — — 5.17
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.4% 11.5% 9.3% 1.23× 8.71
0-1 9.8% 7.4% 6.8% 1.09× 13.51
1-0 9.9% 7.4% 9.5% 0.78× 13.51
0-0 7.3% 7.4% 5.8% 1.28× 13.51
1-2 8.1% 7.4% 8.9% 0.83× 13.51
2-1 8.2% 7.4% 7.0% 1.05× 13.51
0-2 6.3% 7.4% 4.1% 1.79× 13.51
2-0 6.3% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.51
2-2 5.3% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.51
0-3 2.7% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.30
0-4 0.9% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.31
1-3 3.5% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.30
1-4 1.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.08× 58.31
2-3 2.3% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.31
2-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.8% 2.08× 58.32
3-0 2.7% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.30
3-1 3.5% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.30
3-2 2.3% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.31
3-3 1.0% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.31
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.32
4-0 0.9% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.31
4-1 1.1% 1.7% 1.4% 1.19× 58.31
4-2 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.77× 58.32
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 8.30× 58.32
Any other score 2.1% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (2nd half DNB) 51.6% 54.4% — — 1.84
St Johnstone (2nd half DNB) 48.4% 45.6% — — 2.19
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone leading at HT (DNB) 52.5% 56.1% — — 1.78
Dundee leading at HT (DNB) 47.5% 43.9% — — 2.28
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone or Dundee (12) 73.9% 72.1% 76.7% 0.94× 1.39
St Johnstone or draw (1X) 63.2% 63.7% 69.0% 0.92× 1.57
Dundee or draw (X2) 62.9% 63.7% 54.1% 1.18× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone or draw at HT 73.7% 74.5% — — 1.34
Dundee or draw at HT 70.9% 74.4% — — 1.34
St Johnstone or Dundee at HT 55.4% 57.4% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone or draw (1UP) 63.2% 71.7% — — 1.40
Dundee or draw (1UP) 62.9% 71.7% — — 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee or draw in 2nd half 69.2% 66.0% — — 1.51
St Johnstone or draw in 2nd half 67.2% 66.0% — — 1.52
St Johnstone or Dundee in 2nd half 63.6% 63.6% — — 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 65.0% 61.5% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 35.0% 38.5% — — 2.59
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone (DNB) 50.2% 50.8% 59.7% 0.85× 1.97
Dundee (DNB) 49.8% 49.2% 40.3% 1.22× 2.03
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone to score first 46.5% 45.8% — — 2.18
Dundee to score first 46.2% 45.8% — — 2.18
No goal scored 7.3% 7.6% — — 13.21
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 52.6% 51.3% 52.3% 0.98× 1.95
Not both teams to score 47.4% 48.7% 47.7% 1.02× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 40.2% 41.6% 43.2% 0.96× 2.41
Not both score & under 2.5 39.6% 38.5% 34.1% 1.13× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 12.4% 12.4% 9.3% 1.33× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 7.8% 8.3% 13.8% 0.60× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 86.2% 85.6% 83.9% 1.02× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 13.8% 14.4% 16.1% 0.89× 6.95
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 71.8% 73.6% — — 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 28.2% 26.4% — — 3.79
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 59.5% 60.2% — — 1.66
Both score 2nd half only 23.3% 21.3% — — 4.70
Both score 1st half only 12.4% 10.7% — — 9.32
Both score in both halves 4.9% 5.0% — — 20.16
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 82.8% 83.5% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 17.2% 16.5% — — 6.05
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 51.3% 52.5% — — 1.90
A half without a goal 48.7% 47.5% — — 2.11
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.7% 47.2% 45.7% 1.03× 2.12
0-1 goals 27.1% 26.6% 21.7% 1.23× 3.76
4-6 goals 24.5% 22.9% 31.2% 0.74× 4.36
7+ goals 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 0.99× 54.39
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee to score exactly 1 35.5% 35.9% 30.4% 1.18× 2.79
Dundee to score exactly 0 27.5% 27.5% 33.1% 0.83× 3.64
Dundee to score exactly 2 22.9% 22.3% 22.5% 0.99× 4.49
Dundee to score 3+ 14.1% 12.9% 14.5% 0.89× 7.75
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone to score exactly 1 35.4% 35.5% 31.2% 1.14× 2.81
St Johnstone to score exactly 0 27.3% 26.6% 20.5% 1.30× 3.77
St Johnstone to score exactly 2 23.0% 23.3% 25.0% 0.93× 4.29
St Johnstone to score 3+ 14.3% 14.3% 23.8% 0.60× 6.99
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 44.6% 42.6% — — 2.35
St Johnstone leading at HT 29.1% 25.6% — — 3.91
Dundee leading at HT 26.3% 25.5% — — 3.93
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone -1: 2 62.9% 62.6% — — 1.60
St Johnstone -1: X 20.7% 23.5% — — 4.26
St Johnstone -1: 1 16.4% 17.5% — — 5.72
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (0:1) 62.9% 61.5% 54.1% 1.14× 1.63
Draw (0:1) 20.7% 24.2% 19.6% 1.23× 4.13
St Johnstone (0:1) 16.4% 17.8% 26.4% 0.67× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (0:2) 83.6% 83.0% 73.6% 1.13× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 10.7% 11.0% 14.5% 0.76× 9.11
St Johnstone (0:2) 5.7% 7.7% 12.2% 0.63× 13.07
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (0:3) 94.3% 92.7% 87.8% 1.06× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.1% 2.4% 6.8% 0.35× 41.96
St Johnstone (0:3) 1.6% 2.4% 5.6% 0.43× 42.07
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (0:4) 98.4% 98.1% 94.4% 1.04× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.2% 1.2% 4.8% 0.26× 81.83
St Johnstone (0:4) 0.4% 1.2% 1.0% 1.18× 81.93
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone (1:0) 63.2% 65.3% 69.0% 0.95× 1.53
Draw (1:0) 20.6% 21.7% 17.8% 1.22× 4.62
Dundee (1:0) 16.2% 17.1% 13.4% 1.27× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone (2:0) 83.8% 84.6% 86.6% 0.98× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 10.6% 10.3% 7.6% 1.34× 9.73
Dundee (2:0) 5.6% 6.4% 6.0% 1.06× 15.68
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.5% 48.6% — — 2.06
1st half highest scoring 27.0% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 25.5% 26.2% — — 3.82
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone to concede 72.5% 73.0% 66.9% 1.09× 1.37
St Johnstone clean sheet 27.5% 27.0% 33.1% 0.82× 3.70
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone clean sheet in 1st half 59.6% 62.5% — — 1.60
St Johnstone to concede in 1st half 40.4% 37.5% — — 2.67
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone to concede in 2nd half 53.9% 52.6% — — 1.90
St Johnstone clean sheet in 2nd half 46.1% 47.4% — — 2.11
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone over 2.5 corners 82.3% 81.0% — — 1.24
St Johnstone under 6.5 corners 75.4% 76.5% — — 1.31
St Johnstone over 3.5 corners 67.7% 66.7% — — 1.50
St Johnstone under 5.5 corners 63.1% 62.3% — — 1.61
St Johnstone over 4.5 corners 51.7% 52.6% — — 1.90
St Johnstone under 4.5 corners 48.3% 47.4% — — 2.11
St Johnstone over 5.5 corners 36.9% 37.7% — — 2.65
St Johnstone under 3.5 corners 32.3% 33.3% — — 3.01
St Johnstone over 6.5 corners 24.6% 23.5% — — 4.26
St Johnstone under 2.5 corners 17.7% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone under 3.5 goals 95.7% 96.4% 92.1% 1.05× 1.04
St Johnstone under 2.5 goals 85.7% 87.3% 76.2% 1.14× 1.15
St Johnstone over 0.5 goals 72.7% 74.2% 79.5% 0.93× 1.35
St Johnstone under 1.5 goals 62.7% 63.6% 51.4% 1.24× 1.57
St Johnstone over 1.5 goals 37.3% 36.4% 48.6% 0.75× 2.75
St Johnstone under 0.5 goals 27.3% 25.8% 20.5% 1.26× 3.88
St Johnstone over 2.5 goals 14.3% 12.7% 23.8% 0.54× 7.85
St Johnstone over 3.5 goals 4.3% 3.6% 7.9% 0.46× 27.50
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone under 1.5 in 1st half 89.2% 90.2% — — 1.11
St Johnstone under 0.5 in 1st half 57.2% 56.3% — — 1.78
St Johnstone over 0.5 in 1st half 42.8% 43.7% — — 2.29
St Johnstone over 1.5 in 1st half 10.8% 9.8% — — 10.16
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone scores equally in both 39.8% 38.2% — — 2.62
St Johnstone scores more in 2nd half 35.7% 38.1% — — 2.63
St Johnstone scores more in 1st half 24.5% 21.0% — — 4.75
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (home no bet) 58.4% 56.4% 57.0% 0.99× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 41.6% 43.6% 43.0% 1.01× 2.29
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone even goals 53.7% 50.8% 51.7% 0.98× 1.97
St Johnstone odd goals 46.3% 49.2% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 34.1% 33.5% — — 2.98
HT 1-0 19.1% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 0-1 17.7% 18.6% — — 5.39
HT 1-1 9.8% 6.9% — — 14.51
HT 2-0 5.3% 6.9% — — 14.58
HT 0-2 4.6% 2.4% — — 42.12
Any other HT score 3.5% 2.4% — — 42.19
HT 1-2 2.5% 2.4% — — 42.25
HT 2-1 2.8% 2.4% — — 42.24
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.4% — — 42.37
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone at HT / St Johnstone at FT 21.3% 21.6% — — 4.64
Dundee at HT / Dundee at FT 19.6% 16.8% — — 5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 16.1% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Dundee at FT 14.7% 12.7% — — 7.88
Draw at HT / St Johnstone at FT 13.8% 12.7% — — 7.89
St Johnstone at HT / Draw at FT 5.4% 6.0% — — 16.54
Dundee at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.5% — — 28.87
St Johnstone at HT / Dundee at FT 2.4% 3.5% — — 28.95
Dundee at HT / St Johnstone at FT 2.0% 3.5% — — 28.96
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone to score last 46.5% 46.3% — — 2.16
Dundee to score last 46.2% 46.3% — — 2.16
No goal scored 7.3% 7.6% — — 13.21
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 92.7% 92.5% — — 1.08
St Johnstone to lead by 1 at any time 53.3% 50.7% — — 1.97
Dundee to lead by 1 at any time 53.0% 50.6% — — 1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 43.7% 39.2% — — 2.55
St Johnstone to lead by 2 at any time 22.1% 19.5% — — 5.13
Dundee to lead by 2 at any time 21.8% 19.5% — — 5.13
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 14.5% 10.6% — — 9.40
St Johnstone to lead by 3 at any time 7.3% 6.6% — — 15.05
Dundee to lead by 3 at any time 7.2% 6.6% — — 15.05
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone most corners 50.8% 51.6% — — 1.94
Dundee most corners 37.5% 39.3% — — 2.54
Corners level 11.6% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.8% 87.4% 87.0% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 80.5% 83.4% 79.8% 1.05× 1.20
2-6 goals 71.2% 72.3% 76.7% 0.94× 1.38
2-5 goals 68.1% 68.8% 71.1% 0.97× 1.45
1-3 goals 66.5% 68.8% 61.6% 1.12× 1.45
2-4 goals 60.8% 63.3% 63.8% 0.99× 1.58
2-3 goals 46.7% 48.4% 45.7% 1.06× 2.06
3-6 goals 46.2% 48.4% 55.2% 0.88× 2.06
1-2 goals 44.7% 43.6% 37.6% 1.16× 2.29
3-5 goals 43.1% 43.6% 49.6% 0.88× 2.29
3-4 goals 35.8% 39.2% 42.4% 0.92× 2.55
4-6 goals 24.5% 24.5% 31.2% 0.78× 4.09
4-5 goals 21.4% 24.4% 25.6% 0.95× 4.09
5-6 goals 10.4% 14.8% 13.0% 1.14× 6.76
7+ goals 1.7% 2.6% 1.9% 1.37× 39.19
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone never behind 39.7% 44.3% — — 2.26
Dundee never behind 39.4% 44.3% — — 2.26
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 50.0% 50.9% 51.2% 0.99× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.0% 49.1% 48.8% 1.01× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.8% 57.7% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 44.2% 42.3% — — 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.3% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.7% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 95.2% 95.4% 92.6% 1.03× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 92.7% 92.3% 94.2% 0.98× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 87.9% 87.6% 85.3% 1.03× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 73.8% 72.5% 67.1% 1.08× 1.38
Over 1.5 goals 72.9% 72.5% 78.3% 0.93× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 52.1% 52.5% 43.2% 1.22× 1.90
Over 2.5 goals 47.9% 47.5% 56.8% 0.84× 2.11
Under 1.5 goals 27.1% 27.5% 21.7% 1.27× 3.63
Over 3.5 goals 26.2% 27.5% 32.9% 0.84× 3.63
Over 4.5 goals 12.1% 12.4% 14.7% 0.85× 8.07
Under 0.5 goals 7.3% 7.7% 5.8% 1.34× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 4.8% 4.6% 7.4% 0.62× 21.80
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.3% 97.2% 98.0% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 94.8% 92.4% 92.0% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 85.9% 86.7% 82.1% 1.06× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 66.5% 67.5% 56.8% 1.19× 1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 63.9% 61.9% 72.4% 0.86× 1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 36.1% 38.1% 27.6% 1.38× 2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 33.5% 32.5% 43.2% 0.75× 3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 14.1% 13.3% 17.9% 0.74× 7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 5.2% 7.6% 8.0% 0.94× 13.21
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.7% 2.8% 2.0% 1.42× 35.64
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 90.5% 92.7% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 70.8% 71.3% — — 1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half 65.9% 68.6% — — 1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half 34.1% 31.4% — — 3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half 29.2% 28.7% — — 3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half 9.5% 7.3% — — 13.64
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 80.5% 82.9% — — 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 78.1% 79.6% — — 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 55.3% 55.2% — — 1.81
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 44.7% 44.8% — — 2.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 21.9% 20.4% — — 4.90
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 19.5% 17.1% — — 5.84
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee not to score in both halves 78.2% 78.5% — — 1.27
St Johnstone not to score in both halves 77.6% 78.5% — — 1.28
St Johnstone to score in both halves 22.4% 21.5% — — 4.64
Dundee to score in both halves 21.8% 21.5% — — 4.65
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 52.6% 53.8% 52.3% 1.03× 1.86
Only St Johnstone scores 20.1% 22.2% 27.5% 0.81× 4.50
Only Dundee scores 19.9% 16.1% 14.9% 1.08× 6.23
Neither team scores 7.3% 7.1% 5.8% 1.23× 14.00
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 25.0% 24.9% 21.7% 1.15× 4.02
Exactly 3 goals 21.7% 22.6% 24.2% 0.93× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 19.7% 17.5% 16.1% 1.08× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 14.1% 12.1% 18.4% 0.66× 8.25
Exactly 5 goals 7.3% 7.6% 7.4% 1.02× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 7.3% 7.6% 5.8% 1.32× 13.14
6 or more goals 4.8% 4.5% 7.4% 0.60× 22.33
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.7% 37.3% — — 2.68
No goals in 1st half 34.1% 35.7% — — 2.80
2 goals in 1st half 19.7% 15.7% — — 6.35
3+ goals in 1st half 9.5% 7.3% — — 13.64
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 44.7% 44.9% — — 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 33.4% 33.9% — — 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 21.9% 22.9% — — 4.38
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee not to win both halves 91.4% 94.1% — — 1.06
St Johnstone not to win both halves 91.1% 94.1% — — 1.06
St Johnstone to win both halves 8.9% 5.9% — — 17.01
Dundee to win both halves 8.6% 5.9% — — 17.04
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone to win either half 50.9% 54.3% — — 1.84
Dundee to win either half 50.5% 54.3% — — 1.84
Dundee to win neither half 49.5% 45.7% — — 2.19
St Johnstone to win neither half 49.1% 45.7% — — 2.19
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee not to win to nil 80.1% 83.1% 85.1% 0.98× 1.20
St Johnstone not to win to nil 79.9% 78.2% 72.5% 1.08× 1.28
St Johnstone to win to nil 20.1% 21.8% 27.5% 0.80× 4.58
Dundee to win to nil 19.9% 16.9% 14.9% 1.14× 5.91
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 26.1% 27.9% 23.3% 1.19× 3.59
St Johnstone by 1 20.7% 24.1% 19.6% 1.23× 4.15
Dundee by 1 20.6% 24.1% 17.8% 1.36× 4.15
St Johnstone by 2 10.7% 11.8% 14.5% 0.81× 8.51
Dundee by 2 10.6% 11.8% 7.6% 1.54× 8.51
St Johnstone by 3+ 5.7% 7.2% 12.2% 0.59× 13.92
Dundee by 3+ 5.6% 7.2% 6.0% 1.20× 13.92
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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