St. Pauli v Bayer Leverkusen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 20 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 6
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
5 – 4
xG per shot
0.24 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
1.48 – 0.66
Goals − xG
-1.37 – -0.13
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.St. Pauli win
18.1%
Draw
28.5%
Bayer Leverkusen win
53.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWWLWWLDLW last 10
scored 25
from 28.0 xG
conceded 17
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.73–1.44 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
St. Pauli 2.37 xGBayer Leverkusen 1.13 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
St. Pauli attacking right
Bayer Leverkusen attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 St. Pauli |
Manolis Saliakas | 0.48 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Carlo Boukhalfa |
| 10' |
St. Pauli |
Carlo Boukhalfa | 0.33 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 13' |
 Bayer Leverkusen |
Jeremie Frimpong | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nathan Tella |
| 14' |
St. Pauli |
Carlo Boukhalfa | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Philipp Treu |
| 31' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.58 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Álex Grimaldo |
| 40' |
St. Pauli |
Morgan Guilavogui | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Carlo Boukhalfa |
| 49' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Exequiel Palacios | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jeremie Frimpong |
| 60' |
St. Pauli |
Eric Smith | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
St. Pauli |
Eric Smith | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
St. Pauli |
Carlo Boukhalfa | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 77' |
St. Pauli |
Carlo Boukhalfa | 0.92 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 77' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 80' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Piero Hincapié | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 80' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Edmond Tapsoba |
| 88' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jonathan Tah | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Florian Wirtz |
Players
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremie Frimpong DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.04 | 0.35 |
| Jonathan Tah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Piero Hincapié DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Exequiel Palacios MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Álex Grimaldo DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.66 | 0.17 |
| Lukas Hradecky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Granit Xhaka MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Florian Wirtz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.42 |
| Edmond Tapsoba DC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| Nathan Tella AMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| Patrik Schick FW | 66 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Amine Adli Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Victor Boniface Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emiliano Buendía Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manolis Saliakas DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Morgan Guilavogui FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| Eric Smith MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Danel Sinani FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.35 | 0.00 |
| Philipp Treu DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.89 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hauke Wahl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| David Nemeth DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Siebe Van der Heyden DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlo Boukhalfa MC | 84 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1.29 | 0.87 | 0.89 |
| Connor Metcalfe FWR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noah Weißhaupt Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robert Wagner Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Elias Saad Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oladapo Afolayan Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |