St. Pauli v Bayer Leverkusen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 27 September 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 5
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 4
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.26
Set-piece xG
0.59 – 0.54
Goals − xG
+0.19 – +0.71
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.St. Pauli win
22.3%
Draw
30.5%
Bayer Leverkusen win
47.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWWLWWLDLW last 10
scored 25
from 28.0 xG
conceded 17
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.85–1.35 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.04–1.48 | 1-1 12% | 46% | 50% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
St. Pauli 0.81 xGBayer Leverkusen 1.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
St. Pauli attacking right
Bayer Leverkusen attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 St. Pauli |
Eric Smith | 0.28 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pereira Lage |
| 6' |
 Bayer Leverkusen |
Jarell Quansah | 0.37 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ben Seghir |
| 10' |
St. Pauli |
Andréas Hountondji | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 12' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joel Chima Fujita |
| 17' |
St. Pauli |
Hauke Wahl | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pereira Lage |
| 19' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | James Sands |
| 24' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Edmond Tapsoba | 0.54 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 31' |
St. Pauli |
Hauke Wahl | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 52' |
St. Pauli |
Louis Oppie | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pereira Lage |
| 53' |
St. Pauli |
Manolis Saliakas | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 54' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 57' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ernest Poku | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Álex Grimaldo |
| 67' |
St. Pauli |
Joel Chima Fujita | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pereira Lage |
| 72' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pereira Lage |
| 83' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jonas Hofmann |
| 90' |
St. Pauli |
Eric Smith | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 95' |
St. Pauli |
Abdoulie Ceesay | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 97' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jonas Hofmann | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Kofane |
Players
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmond Tapsoba DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Jarell Quansah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Álex Grimaldo DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| Aleix García MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Patrik Schick FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Loic Bade DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Malik Tillman AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Axel Tape DMR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Ben Seghir AMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| Robert Andrich MC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ezequiél Fernández Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Ernest Poku Sub | 30 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Lucas Vázquez Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Jonas Hofmann Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Christian Kofane Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Smith DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hauke Wahl DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danel Sinani AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Manolis Saliakas MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Louis Oppie ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| James Sands MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Pereira Lage FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.02 | 0.45 | 0.11 |
| Joel Chima Fujita MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Andréas Hountondji FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Lars Ritzka DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Adam Dzwigala Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martijn Kaars Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Connor Metcalfe Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oladapo Afolayan Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdoulie Ceesay Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |