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St. Pauli v Bayern Munich — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 9 November 2024 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

0–1
0.08 – 1.67 xG
Shots
3 – 13
On target
0 – 6
Shots in box
1 – 7
xG per shot
0.03 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.08 – -0.74
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.01.51.90'15'30'45'60'75'90'Jamal Musiala 21' — goal
St. Pauli 0.08 xGBayern Munich 1.74 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Jamal Musiala 13' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Jamal Musiala 21' — Goal (0.01 xG, Open Play)Harry Kane 23' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Morgan Guilavogui 27' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Karol Mets 28' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Leroy Sané 40' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Harry Kane 52' — Missed Shot (0.33 xG, Open Play)Harry Kane 70' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Leon Goretzka 74' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Leroy Sané 75' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Leroy Sané 78' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Morgan Guilavogui 78' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Harry Kane 81' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Jamal Musiala 85' — Blocked Shot (0.31 xG, Open Play)Harry Kane 88' — Saved Shot (0.49 xG, Open Play)Serge Gnabry 88' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)
St. Pauli attacking right Bayern Munich attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
13' Bayern Munich Jamal Musiala 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
21' Bayern Munich Jamal Musiala 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Goal
23' Bayern Munich Harry Kane 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jamal Musiala
27' St. Pauli Morgan Guilavogui 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
28' St. Pauli Karol Mets 0.04 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Carlo Boukhalfa
40' Bayern Munich Leroy Sané 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
52' Bayern Munich Harry Kane 0.33 Open Play Missed Shot Dayotchanculle Upamecano
70' Bayern Munich Harry Kane 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Leon Goretzka
74' Bayern Munich Leon Goretzka 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Leroy Sané
75' Bayern Munich Leroy Sané 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
78' Bayern Munich Leroy Sané 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Harry Kane
78' St. Pauli Morgan Guilavogui 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
81' Bayern Munich Harry Kane 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Alphonso Davies
85' Bayern Munich Jamal Musiala 0.31 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Harry Kane
88' Bayern Munich Harry Kane 0.49 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jamal Musiala
88' Bayern Munich Serge Gnabry 0.13 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot

Players

St. Pauli

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Karol Mets DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.00
Morgan Guilavogui MR 90 0 0 2 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Carlo Boukhalfa MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.00
Eric Smith DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nikola Vasilj GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Manolis Saliakas DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lars Ritzka DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hauke Wahl DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jackson Irvine MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Johannes Eggestein FW 82 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Oladapo Afolayan ML 75 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Robert Wagner Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andreas Albers Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Danel Sinani Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Adam Dzwigala Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Bayern Munich

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Harry Kane FW 90 0 0 5 2 1.00 0.34 1.34
Jamal Musiala AMC 90 1 0 3 2 0.37 0.53 1.25
Alphonso Davies DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.11 0.14
Joshua Kimmich DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.52
Kim Min-Jae DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.67
Manuel Neuer GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.36
Dayotchanculle Upamecano DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.33 1.29
Leroy Sané AMR 83 0 0 3 1 0.14 0.10 0.75
Leon Goretzka DMC 83 0 0 1 1 0.10 0.03 0.17
Raphael Guerreiro DR 71 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Kingsley Coman AML 70 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Serge Gnabry Sub 20 0 0 1 0 0.13 0.00 0.27
Konrad Laimer Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.51
João Palhinha Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Michael Olise Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.80
Thomas Müller Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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