St. Pauli v Bayern Munich — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 11 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 20
On target
3 – 8
Shots in box
4 – 15
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.64
Goals − xG
-0.36 – +0.85
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.St. Pauli win
7.4%
Draw
14.8%
Bayern Munich win
77.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
Bayern Munich are conceding fewer than expected — 3.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWWDWWWD last 10
scored 34
from 32.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.76–2.72 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.89–2.66 | 0-2 10% | 69% | 55% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
St. Pauli 0.36 xGBayern Munich 4.15 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
St. Pauli attacking right
Bayern Munich attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.55 | Open Play | — | Goal | Konrad Laimer |
| 8' |
Bayern Munich |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 10' |
Bayern Munich |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kim Min-Jae |
| 15' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 16' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jamal Musiala |
| 17' |
Bayern Munich |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 24' |
 St. Pauli |
Hauke Wahl | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 25' |
St. Pauli |
Joel Chima Fujita | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mathias Rasmussen |
| 26' |
Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Raphael Guerreiro |
| 28' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mathias Rasmussen |
| 29' |
St. Pauli |
Tomoya Ando | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Lars Ritzka |
| 33' |
Bayern Munich |
Tom Bischof | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 41' |
Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Raphael Guerreiro |
| 42' |
Bayern Munich |
Konrad Laimer | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Bayern Munich |
Raphael Guerreiro | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 46' |
St. Pauli |
Andréas Hountondji | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Joel Chima Fujita |
| 52' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.48 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 53' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Leon Goretzka |
| 60' |
Bayern Munich |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 61' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jamal Musiala |
| 64' |
Bayern Munich |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Josip Stanisic |
| 64' |
Bayern Munich |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jamal Musiala |
| 77' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Raphael Guerreiro |
| 79' |
St. Pauli |
Connor Metcalfe | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arkadiusz Pyrka |
| 87' |
Bayern Munich |
Raphael Guerreiro | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Nicolas Jackson |
| 91' |
Bayern Munich |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.24 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tom Bischof |
Players
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomoya Ando DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Hauke Wahl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danel Sinani AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Arkadiusz Pyrka DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Karol Mets DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathias Rasmussen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pereira Lage AMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Andréas Hountondji FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Lars Ritzka DML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| Joel Chima Fujita MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| Connor Metcalfe Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Martijn Kaars Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Louis Oppie Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Taichi Hara Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Jackson FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1.38 | 0.44 | 2.57 |
| Leon Goretzka DMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.07 | 1.18 |
| Raphael Guerreiro AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 1.49 |
| Tom Bischof DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| Manuel Neuer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Kim Min-Jae DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.99 |
| Jamal Musiala AML | 85 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1.02 | 0.95 | 2.58 |
| Hiroki Ito DC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Michael Olise AMR | 60 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Joshua Kimmich DMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.44 |
| Konrad Laimer DR | 59 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| Josip Stanisic Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.68 |
| Luis Díaz Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.08 | 0.42 |
| Alphonso Davies Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Jonathan Tah Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Bara Sapoko Ndiaye Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |