St. Pauli v Eintracht Frankfurt — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 8 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 8
On target
2 – 2
Shots in box
6 – 6
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.29 – 0.18
Goals − xG
-0.47 – -0.45
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.St. Pauli win
25.6%
Draw
28.2%
Eintracht Frankfurt win
46.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
Eintracht Frankfurt have scored 16 from 17.9 expected and conceded 24 from 22.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDDLWDLW last 10
scored 16
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 22.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.05–1.49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.16–1.51 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 53% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
St. Pauli 0.47 xGEintracht Frankfurt 0.45 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
St. Pauli attacking right
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 3' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
 St. Pauli |
Arkadiusz Pyrka | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 8' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Manolis Saliakas |
| 21' |
St. Pauli |
Jackson Irvine | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 22' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Tomoya Ando |
| 22' |
St. Pauli |
Tomoya Ando | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 30' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Pereira Lage |
| 45' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jean Négoce | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Oscar Højlund |
| 59' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jean Négoce | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Oscar Højlund |
| 64' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | James Sands |
| 78' |
St. Pauli |
Jackson Irvine | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Arkadiusz Pyrka |
| 78' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Farès Chaïbi |
| 90' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jean Négoce | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Joel Chima Fujita |
| 90' |
St. Pauli |
Joel Chima Fujita | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Connor Metcalfe |
| 93' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Aurèle Amenda | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Jean Négoce |
Players
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Négoce FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Jonathan Burkardt FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Farès Chaïbi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Aurèle Amenda DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Nathaniel Brown DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Michael Zetterer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nnamdi Collins DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Hugo Larsson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Robin Koch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga FWR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Oscar Højlund MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Ritsu Doan Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Love Arrhov Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pereira Lage AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Danel Sinani FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Jackson Irvine MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joel Chima Fujita AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Arkadiusz Pyrka DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Eric Smith DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Hauke Wahl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| James Sands MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Tomoya Ando DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| Manolis Saliakas DMR | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Lars Ritzka Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Dzwigala Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Connor Metcalfe Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |