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St. Pauli v FC Heidenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 August 2024 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

0–2
1.16 – 1.17 xG
Shots
11 – 5
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
6 – 3
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
0.59 – 0.69
Goals − xG
-1.16 – +0.83
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.71.01.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Paul Wanner 65' — goalJan Schöppner 81' — goal
St. Pauli 1.16 xGFC Heidenheim 1.17 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Adrian Beck 3' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Connor Metcalfe 19' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Eric Smith 21' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Connor Metcalfe 29' — Saved Shot (0.37 xG, Open Play)Philipp Treu 40' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Morgan Guilavogui 46' — Missed Shot (0.42 xG, Set Piece)Lars Ritzka 54' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Léo Scienza 57' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Morgan Guilavogui 58' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Morgan Guilavogui 60' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Paul Wanner 65' — Goal (0.39 xG, Open Play)Hauke Wahl 65' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Lars Ritzka 65' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Connor Metcalfe 68' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Jan Schöppner 81' — Goal (0.62 xG, From Corner)Marvin Pieringer 91' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)
St. Pauli attacking right FC Heidenheim attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' FC Heidenheim Adrian Beck 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Maximilian Breunig
19' St. Pauli Connor Metcalfe 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Johannes Eggestein
21' St. Pauli Eric Smith 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot
29' St. Pauli Connor Metcalfe 0.37 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Morgan Guilavogui
40' St. Pauli Philipp Treu 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
46' St. Pauli Morgan Guilavogui 0.42 Set Piece Missed Shot Eric Smith
54' St. Pauli Lars Ritzka 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Johannes Eggestein
57' FC Heidenheim Léo Scienza 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jan Schöppner
58' St. Pauli Morgan Guilavogui 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Lars Ritzka
60' St. Pauli Morgan Guilavogui 0.01 From Corner Missed Shot Eric Smith
65' FC Heidenheim Paul Wanner 0.39 Open Play Right Foot Goal Marvin Pieringer
65' St. Pauli Hauke Wahl 0.09 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Morgan Guilavogui
65' St. Pauli Lars Ritzka 0.01 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
68' St. Pauli Connor Metcalfe 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Morgan Guilavogui
81' FC Heidenheim Jan Schöppner 0.62 From Corner Right Foot Goal Mathias Honsak
91' FC Heidenheim Marvin Pieringer 0.06 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot

Players

St. Pauli

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Hauke Wahl DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.45
Eric Smith DC 90 0 0 1 2 0.05 0.44 0.37
Philipp Treu DMR 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.54
Karol Mets DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.45
Johannes Eggestein FW 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.13 0.51
Jackson Irvine MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.00 0.13
Nikola Vasilj GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Connor Metcalfe MC 84 0 0 3 0 0.44 0.00 0.45
Morgan Guilavogui FW 76 0 0 3 3 0.45 0.47 0.53
Lars Ritzka DML 76 0 0 2 1 0.09 0.01 0.09
Robert Wagner MC 76 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.52
Oladapo Afolayan Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Manolis Saliakas Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Carlo Boukhalfa Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Elias Saad Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

FC Heidenheim

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jan Schöppner DMC 90 1 0 1 1 0.62 0.07 0.07
Benedikt Gimber DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Jonas Föhrenbach DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Kevin Müller GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lennard Maloney DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Omar Traoré DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Patrick Mainka DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Paul Wanner AMC 81 1 0 1 0 0.39 0.00 0.46
Maximilian Breunig FW 81 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.09
Léo Scienza AML 62 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.07
Adrian Beck AMR 62 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Marvin Pieringer Sub 28 0 1 1 1 0.06 0.39 0.39
Sirlord Conteh Sub 28 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.39
Mathias Honsak Sub 9 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.62 0.00
Luca Kerber Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marnon Busch Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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