St. Pauli v Hamburger SV — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 23 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 5
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
5 – 2
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.19 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-0.31 – -0.33
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.St. Pauli win
28.5%
Draw
31.8%
Hamburger SV win
39.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
Hamburger SV have scored 12 from 11.8 expected and conceded 20 from 18.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWDLLLWWWL last 10
scored 12
from 11.8 xG
conceded 20
from 18.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.02–1.24 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.33–1.08 | 1-1 13% | 43% | 49% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
St. Pauli 0.31 xGHamburger SV 0.33 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
St. Pauli attacking right
Hamburger SV attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15' |
 St. Pauli |
Eric Smith | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
 Hamburger SV |
Fabio Baldé | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Damion Downs |
| 48' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 62' |
St. Pauli |
James Sands | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Karol Mets |
| 62' |
St. Pauli |
Joel Chima Fujita | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pereira Lage |
| 66' |
Hamburger SV |
Damion Downs | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ransford Königsdörffer |
| 75' |
St. Pauli |
Eric Smith | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 78' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arkadiusz Pyrka |
| 78' |
St. Pauli |
Louis Oppie | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
St. Pauli |
Arkadiusz Pyrka | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Smith MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Louis Oppie DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| James Sands MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Arkadiusz Pyrka DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Joel Chima Fujita FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Karol Mets DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Hauke Wahl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pereira Lage FWL | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Adam Dzwigala DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martijn Kaars FW | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ricky-Jade Jones Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danel Sinani Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Jackson Irvine Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Vuskovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Fábio Vieira DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bakery Jatta AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Nicolai Remberg DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Torunarigha DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Miro Muheim DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 |
| Nicolás Capaldo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Damion Downs FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| Ransford Königsdörffer AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Fabio Baldé Sub | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Robert Glatzel Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rayan Philippe Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Luc Dompe Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit AML | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |