St. Pauli v Hertha Berlin — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 December 2026 · GER-2. Bundesliga · 2627

GER-2. Bundesliga results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

St. Pauli

20:00 UTC

Hertha Berlin

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 23 Oct, 10:58 · 1,377h before kick-off

St. Pauli win

30.9%

model 32.8%

Draw

23.8%

model 24.7%

Hertha Berlin win

45.3%

model 42.4%

312445

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.4%
1-2 9.0%
2-1 7.8%
0-1 7.2%
2-2 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	59.1%	Under 2.5	40.9%
BTTS yes	61.6%	BTTS no	38.4%
St. Pauli 1+	75.9%	St. Pauli 2+	41.5%
Hertha Berlin 1+	80.6%	Hertha Berlin 2+	48.8%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.64. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

22/100

Data quality

55/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Hertha Berlin (+0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 57%

68.7% fair odds 1.46

moderate signal · 1169 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Hertha Berlin (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 78%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Hertha Berlin carry the stronger rating, 1556 Elo against 1319.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
The model's measured edge in this competition is 0.0032 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Hertha Berlin have an estimated 45.3% win probability, against 30.9% for St. Pauli and 23.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.42 for St. Pauli and 1.64 for Hertha Berlin.

Why St. Pauli

Nothing in the data singles out St. Pauli.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.8%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.42 to 1.64. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Hertha Berlin can win

Hertha Berlin carry the stronger rating, 1556 Elo against 1319. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

St. Pauli's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Danel Sinani (0.27), Andréas Hountondji (0.25), Ricky-Jade Jones (0.25).

Availability

2 of St. Pauli's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Hertha Berlin, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

St. Pauli: 45% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.56 xG a match from set pieces. Hertha Berlin: 46% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 19.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. St. Pauli's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-23 14:52 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-23 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Hertha Berlin are the model's most likely outcome at 45.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.4%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DLLDLDLLLL last 10 scored 6 from 10.7 xG conceded 20 from 22.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	332542	1.42–1.64	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	322643	1.29–1.54	1-1 12%	54%	57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin to win	42.6%	42.9%	31.0%	1.39×	2.33
St. Pauli to win	31.5%	30.4%	43.2%	0.70×	3.29
Draw	25.9%	27.9%	26.0%	1.07×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin & both teams score	21.5%	21.8%	18.0%	1.21×	4.59
Hertha Berlin & not both score	21.1%	21.8%	13.2%	1.66×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.5%	18.0%	19.8%	0.91×	5.56
St. Pauli & both teams score	16.4%	18.0%	22.3%	0.81×	5.57
St. Pauli & not both score	15.1%	18.0%	21.1%	0.85×	5.57
Draw & not both score	6.4%	8.3%	6.3%	1.31×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin & over 1.5	34.0%	30.8%	25.7%	1.20×	3.25
Hertha Berlin & under 3.5	28.2%	26.1%	20.9%	1.25×	3.84
Hertha Berlin & over 2.5	27.0%	26.1%	22.0%	1.19×	3.84
St. Pauli & over 1.5	24.3%	21.6%	34.5%	0.63×	4.63
St. Pauli & under 3.5	21.8%	21.6%	28.0%	0.77×	4.63
St. Pauli & over 2.5	19.4%	18.0%	28.0%	0.64×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	19.5%	18.0%	19.8%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	18.6%	18.0%	16.9%	1.07×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.6%	18.0%	16.9%	1.07×	5.56
Hertha Berlin & under 2.5	15.6%	18.0%	9.1%	1.97×	5.56
Hertha Berlin & over 3.5	14.4%	12.8%	10.2%	1.26×	7.79
St. Pauli & under 2.5	12.1%	12.8%	15.3%	0.84×	7.79
St. Pauli & over 3.5	9.7%	7.9%	15.3%	0.52×	12.63
Hertha Berlin & under 1.5	8.6%	7.9%	5.4%	1.46×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.3%	7.9%	9.3%	0.85×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.3%	7.9%	9.3%	0.85×	12.63
St. Pauli & under 1.5	7.2%	7.9%	8.8%	0.90×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.4%	7.9%	6.3%	1.25×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin (1UP)	59.3%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
St. Pauli (1UP)	49.7%	44.1%	—	—	2.27

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin (2UP)	42.6%	47.1%	—	—	2.12
St. Pauli (2UP)	31.5%	30.4%	—	—	3.29

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin to win 2nd half	37.9%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
2nd half drawn	34.7%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
St. Pauli to win 2nd half	27.4%	25.8%	—	—	3.88

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin under 1.5 in 2nd half	76.5%	78.9%	—	—	1.27
Hertha Berlin over 0.5 in 2nd half	60.2%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Hertha Berlin under 0.5 in 2nd half	39.8%	40.1%	—	—	2.50
Hertha Berlin over 1.5 in 2nd half	23.5%	21.1%	—	—	4.75

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli under 1.5 in 2nd half	83.2%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
St. Pauli over 0.5 in 2nd half	52.0%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
St. Pauli under 0.5 in 2nd half	48.0%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
St. Pauli over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.73

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin (+2.5)	95.3%	96.3%	90.6%	1.06×	1.04
Hertha Berlin (+1.5)	86.2%	88.5%	77.7%	1.14×	1.13
Hertha Berlin (+0.5)	68.5%	68.7%	56.8%	1.21×	1.46
St. Pauli (+0.5)	57.4%	57.0%	69.0%	0.83×	1.75
Hertha Berlin (-0.5)	42.6%	43.0%	31.0%	1.39×	2.33
St. Pauli (-0.5)	31.5%	31.3%	43.2%	0.73×	3.19
St. Pauli (-1.5)	13.8%	11.5%	22.3%	0.52×	8.66
St. Pauli (-2.5)	4.7%	3.7%	9.4%	0.39×	27.00

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin to concede	72.4%	76.7%	80.7%	0.95×	1.30
Hertha Berlin clean sheet	27.6%	23.3%	19.4%	1.20×	4.29

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin clean sheet in 1st half	57.4%	57.0%	—	—	1.76
Hertha Berlin to concede in 1st half	42.6%	43.0%	—	—	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin to concede in 2nd half	52.0%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Hertha Berlin clean sheet in 2nd half	48.0%	45.2%	—	—	2.21

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin under 6.5 corners	82.3%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Hertha Berlin over 2.5 corners	75.8%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Hertha Berlin under 5.5 corners	71.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Hertha Berlin over 3.5 corners	59.0%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Hertha Berlin under 4.5 corners	57.7%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Hertha Berlin over 4.5 corners	42.3%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Hertha Berlin under 3.5 corners	41.0%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Hertha Berlin over 5.5 corners	28.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Hertha Berlin under 2.5 corners	24.2%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Hertha Berlin over 6.5 corners	17.7%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin under 3.5 goals	93.0%	92.3%	94.6%	0.98×	1.08
Hertha Berlin under 2.5 goals	80.0%	81.4%	83.7%	0.97×	1.23
Hertha Berlin over 0.5 goals	78.5%	76.3%	72.8%	1.05×	1.31
Hertha Berlin under 1.5 goals	54.6%	53.6%	60.4%	0.89×	1.87
Hertha Berlin over 1.5 goals	45.4%	46.4%	39.6%	1.17×	2.15
Hertha Berlin under 0.5 goals	21.5%	23.7%	27.2%	0.87×	4.21
Hertha Berlin over 2.5 goals	20.0%	18.6%	16.3%	1.14×	5.39
Hertha Berlin over 3.5 goals	7.0%	7.7%	5.4%	1.41×	13.06

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin under 1.5 in 1st half	87.3%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Hertha Berlin under 0.5 in 1st half	54.1%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Hertha Berlin over 0.5 in 1st half	45.9%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Hertha Berlin over 1.5 in 1st half	12.7%	10.7%	—	—	9.35

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin scores more in 2nd half	41.1%	43.4%	—	—	2.31
Hertha Berlin scores equally in both	35.6%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Hertha Berlin scores more in 1st half	23.3%	22.0%	—	—	4.55

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli (away no bet)	54.9%	51.8%	62.4%	0.83×	1.93
Draw (away no bet)	45.1%	48.2%	37.6%	1.28×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin even goals	52.3%	52.6%	54.0%	0.97×	1.90
Hertha Berlin odd goals	47.7%	47.4%	46.0%	1.03×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	83.9%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	16.1%	17.2%	—	—	5.81

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	66.1%	68.3%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	33.9%	31.7%	—	—	3.16

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	57.4%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Hertha Berlin to score 2+ in a row	36.5%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
St. Pauli to score 2+ in a row	27.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.5%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Hertha Berlin to score 3+ in a row	12.8%	12.1%	—	—	8.30
St. Pauli to score 3+ in a row	8.0%	5.6%	—	—	17.90

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli corners (+3.5)	90.7%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
St. Pauli corners (+2.5)	85.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
St. Pauli corners (+1.5)	78.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Hertha Berlin corners (+3.5)	72.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Hertha Berlin corners (+2.5)	62.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Hertha Berlin corners (+1.5)	52.3%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
St. Pauli corners (-1.5)	47.7%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
St. Pauli corners (-2.5)	37.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
St. Pauli corners (-3.5)	27.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Hertha Berlin corners (-1.5)	21.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Hertha Berlin corners (-2.5)	14.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.44
Hertha Berlin corners (-3.5)	9.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	37.1%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	32.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	30.6%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	75.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	73.1%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	67.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	62.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	58.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	52.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	47.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	41.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	37.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	32.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	26.9%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	24.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.2%	11.5%	10.7%	1.07×	8.72
0-1	8.6%	7.4%	5.4%	1.37×	13.50
1-2	9.0%	7.4%	9.0%	0.82×	13.50
0-2	7.0%	7.4%	3.9%	1.91×	13.51
1-0	7.2%	7.4%	8.8%	0.84×	13.51
2-1	7.6%	7.4%	9.0%	0.82×	13.50
0-0	6.4%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.51
2-2	5.8%	7.4%	7.3%	1.02×	13.51
2-0	4.9%	1.7%	6.7%	0.26×	58.29
0-3	3.6%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
0-4	1.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.58×	58.31
1-3	4.6%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.29
1-4	1.8%	1.7%	0.9%	1.85×	58.31
2-3	3.0%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.30
2-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.8%	2.22×	58.31
3-0	2.1%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.31
3-1	3.3%	1.7%	5.4%	0.32×	58.30
3-2	2.5%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.31
3-3	1.3%	1.7%	2.0%	0.85×	58.31
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.9%	1.85×	58.32
4-0	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	1.85×	58.32
4-1	1.0%	1.7%	2.0%	0.85×	58.31
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	0.8%	2.22×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.6%	2.77×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.54×	58.32
Any other score	3.0%	1.7%	5.4%	0.32×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin (2nd half DNB)	58.0%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
St. Pauli (2nd half DNB)	42.0%	40.4%	—	—	2.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin leading at HT (DNB)	53.3%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
St. Pauli leading at HT (DNB)	46.7%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli or Hertha Berlin (12)	74.1%	72.1%	74.0%	0.97×	1.39
Hertha Berlin or draw (X2)	68.5%	69.6%	56.8%	1.23×	1.44
St. Pauli or draw (1X)	57.4%	57.1%	69.0%	0.83×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin or draw at HT	73.3%	75.1%	—	—	1.33
St. Pauli or draw at HT	69.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
St. Pauli or Hertha Berlin at HT	57.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin or draw (1UP)	68.5%	76.3%	—	—	1.31
St. Pauli or draw (1UP)	57.4%	63.0%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin or draw in 2nd half	72.6%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
St. Pauli or Hertha Berlin in 2nd half	65.3%	65.6%	—	—	1.52
St. Pauli or draw in 2nd half	62.1%	63.9%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.1%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	37.9%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin (DNB)	57.5%	58.1%	41.8%	1.39×	1.72
St. Pauli (DNB)	42.5%	41.9%	58.2%	0.72×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin to score first	50.9%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
St. Pauli to score first	42.7%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	6.4%	7.4%	—	—	13.47

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.3%	55.0%	59.8%	0.92×	1.82
Not both teams to score	42.7%	45.0%	40.2%	1.12×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	45.1%	44.3%	49.2%	0.90×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	34.2%	34.5%	30.5%	1.13×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	12.2%	12.4%	10.7%	1.16×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.5%	8.3%	9.9%	0.84×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	83.2%	82.6%	80.5%	1.03×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	16.8%	17.4%	19.5%	0.89×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	68.5%	67.4%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	31.5%	32.6%	—	—	3.07

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	55.0%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	25.4%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
Both score 1st half only	13.5%	10.7%	—	—	9.35
Both score in both halves	6.1%	6.8%	—	—	14.76

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.4%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	19.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.94

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	56.0%	57.3%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	44.0%	42.7%	—	—	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.4%	47.2%	45.4%	1.04×	2.12
4-6 goals	28.8%	26.6%	30.5%	0.87×	3.76
0-1 goals	22.2%	22.9%	20.3%	1.13×	4.37
7+ goals	2.5%	1.8%	4.2%	0.44×	54.25

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin to score exactly 1	33.1%	33.8%	33.3%	1.02×	2.96
Hertha Berlin to score exactly 2	25.4%	27.4%	23.5%	1.16×	3.66
Hertha Berlin to score exactly 0	21.5%	22.3%	27.2%	0.82×	4.49
Hertha Berlin to score 3+	20.0%	19.6%	16.3%	1.21×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli to score exactly 1	35.5%	35.6%	31.7%	1.12×	2.81
St. Pauli to score exactly 0	27.6%	26.5%	19.4%	1.37×	3.77
St. Pauli to score exactly 2	22.9%	23.3%	26.6%	0.88×	4.29
St. Pauli to score 3+	14.0%	14.3%	22.6%	0.63×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Hertha Berlin leading at HT	30.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
St. Pauli leading at HT	26.7%	24.9%	—	—	4.02

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin -1: 1	57.4%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Hertha Berlin -1: 2	21.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Hertha Berlin -1: X	21.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin (0:1)	68.5%	65.3%	56.8%	1.15×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	17.7%	17.8%	21.1%	0.85×	5.61
St. Pauli (0:1)	13.8%	13.7%	22.3%	0.62×	7.28

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin (0:2)	86.2%	87.1%	77.7%	1.12×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.1%	7.7%	13.0%	0.59×	13.02
St. Pauli (0:2)	4.7%	3.8%	9.4%	0.40×	26.59

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin (0:3)	95.3%	96.6%	90.6%	1.07×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.4%	2.4%	6.0%	0.39×	42.04
St. Pauli (0:3)	1.3%	2.4%	3.6%	0.67×	42.14

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin (0:4)	98.7%	98.1%	96.4%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	2.0%	0.61×	81.99
St. Pauli (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	1.7%	0.72×	82.07

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli (1:0)	57.4%	58.3%	69.0%	0.84×	1.71
Hertha Berlin (1:0)	21.4%	21.7%	13.2%	1.65×	4.61
Draw (1:0)	21.2%	21.7%	18.0%	1.21×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli (2:0)	78.6%	80.5%	86.8%	0.93×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	12.9%	10.3%	7.1%	1.45×	9.71
Hertha Berlin (2:0)	8.5%	6.4%	6.2%	1.03×	15.67

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.4%	48.8%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	26.6%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	25.0%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli to concede	78.5%	76.1%	72.8%	1.05×	1.31
St. Pauli clean sheet	21.5%	23.9%	27.2%	0.88×	4.18

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli clean sheet in 1st half	54.1%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
St. Pauli to concede in 1st half	45.9%	44.4%	—	—	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli to concede in 2nd half	60.2%	59.7%	—	—	1.68
St. Pauli clean sheet in 2nd half	39.8%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli over 2.5 corners	87.5%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
St. Pauli over 3.5 corners	76.0%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
St. Pauli under 6.5 corners	64.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
St. Pauli over 4.5 corners	62.2%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
St. Pauli under 5.5 corners	51.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
St. Pauli over 5.5 corners	48.1%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
St. Pauli under 4.5 corners	37.8%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
St. Pauli over 6.5 corners	35.1%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
St. Pauli under 3.5 corners	24.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
St. Pauli under 2.5 corners	12.5%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli under 3.5 goals	95.8%	96.4%	92.4%	1.04×	1.04
St. Pauli under 2.5 goals	86.0%	87.2%	77.4%	1.13×	1.15
St. Pauli over 0.5 goals	72.4%	74.2%	80.7%	0.92×	1.35
St. Pauli under 1.5 goals	63.1%	63.6%	50.9%	1.25×	1.57
St. Pauli over 1.5 goals	36.9%	36.4%	49.1%	0.74×	2.75
St. Pauli under 0.5 goals	27.6%	25.8%	19.4%	1.33×	3.88
St. Pauli over 2.5 goals	14.0%	12.8%	22.6%	0.56×	7.84
St. Pauli over 3.5 goals	4.2%	3.6%	7.6%	0.48×	27.47

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli under 1.5 in 1st half	89.3%	90.3%	—	—	1.11
St. Pauli under 0.5 in 1st half	57.4%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
St. Pauli over 0.5 in 1st half	42.6%	43.3%	—	—	2.31
St. Pauli over 1.5 in 1st half	10.7%	9.7%	—	—	10.29

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli scores equally in both	40.0%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
St. Pauli scores more in 2nd half	35.6%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
St. Pauli scores more in 1st half	24.4%	21.3%	—	—	4.70

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin (home no bet)	62.2%	60.0%	54.3%	1.10×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	37.8%	40.0%	45.7%	0.88×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli even goals	53.8%	50.7%	50.9%	1.00×	1.97
St. Pauli odd goals	46.2%	49.3%	49.1%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
HT 0-1	19.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 1-0	17.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-1	10.7%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 0-2	5.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.51
HT 2-0	4.8%	2.4%	—	—	41.97
Any other HT score	4.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.00
HT 1-2	3.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.07
HT 2-1	2.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.09
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.22

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin at HT / Hertha Berlin at FT	23.6%	21.8%	—	—	4.58
St. Pauli at HT / St. Pauli at FT	18.1%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Hertha Berlin at FT	15.9%	16.7%	—	—	5.99
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.4%	16.7%	—	—	5.99
Draw at HT / St. Pauli at FT	11.5%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
St. Pauli at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.0%	—	—	16.67
Hertha Berlin at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.59
St. Pauli at HT / Hertha Berlin at FT	3.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.65
Hertha Berlin at HT / St. Pauli at FT	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.69

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin to score last	50.9%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
St. Pauli to score last	42.7%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	6.4%	7.4%	—	—	13.47

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.6%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Hertha Berlin to lead by 1 at any time	59.3%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
St. Pauli to lead by 1 at any time	49.7%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	47.7%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Hertha Berlin to lead by 2 at any time	28.1%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
St. Pauli to lead by 2 at any time	19.8%	15.0%	—	—	6.67
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.1%	14.9%	—	—	6.69
Hertha Berlin to lead by 3 at any time	10.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
St. Pauli to lead by 3 at any time	6.3%	6.7%	—	—	14.95

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli most corners	58.7%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Hertha Berlin most corners	30.9%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	10.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.9%	87.4%	84.7%	1.03×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.0%	78.7%	75.7%	1.04×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.2%	78.7%	75.7%	1.04×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.1%	72.4%	70.7%	1.02×	1.38
1-3 goals	62.3%	63.3%	59.3%	1.07×	1.58
2-4 goals	62.2%	63.3%	61.8%	1.03×	1.58
3-6 goals	51.1%	53.2%	55.0%	0.97×	1.88
3-5 goals	46.9%	48.5%	50.0%	0.97×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.4%	48.5%	45.4%	1.07×	2.06
1-2 goals	40.0%	39.2%	34.8%	1.13×	2.55
3-4 goals	38.0%	39.2%	41.0%	0.96×	2.55
4-6 goals	28.8%	30.2%	30.5%	0.99×	3.31
4-5 goals	24.6%	24.5%	25.5%	0.96×	4.08
5-6 goals	13.1%	14.8%	14.1%	1.05×	6.75
7+ goals	2.5%	2.6%	4.2%	0.61×	39.11

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin never behind	43.8%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
St. Pauli never behind	34.3%	36.3%	—	—	2.75

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.9%	50.9%	50.6%	1.01×	1.96
Even number of goals	51.1%	49.1%	49.4%	0.99×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.0%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.0%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.1%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.9%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	93.6%	92.3%	93.7%	0.99×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.3%	92.3%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.4%	82.3%	81.9%	1.01×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	77.8%	77.3%	79.7%	0.97×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	68.7%	66.3%	65.5%	1.01×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	53.6%	52.5%	59.0%	0.89×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	46.4%	47.5%	41.0%	1.16×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	31.3%	33.7%	34.5%	0.98×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	22.2%	22.7%	20.3%	1.12×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	15.6%	17.7%	18.1%	0.98×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	6.7%	7.7%	9.1%	0.85×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	6.4%	7.7%	6.3%	1.22×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.4%	97.2%	95.6%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.6%	92.4%	90.0%	1.03×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	81.5%	81.1%	78.3%	1.04×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	70.7%	72.4%	74.4%	0.97×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	59.7%	55.8%	54.3%	1.03×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	40.3%	44.2%	45.7%	0.97×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	29.3%	27.6%	25.6%	1.08×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	18.5%	18.9%	21.7%	0.87×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.4%	7.6%	10.0%	0.76×	13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.6%	2.8%	4.4%	0.64×	35.58

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.6%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.8%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.3%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.7%	31.6%	—	—	3.17
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.2%	31.5%	—	—	3.17
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.4%	10.8%	—	—	9.28

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.7%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	76.9%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	50.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	49.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	23.1%	20.6%	—	—	4.84
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.3%	16.9%	—	—	5.93

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli not to score in both halves	77.9%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Hertha Berlin not to score in both halves	72.4%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Hertha Berlin to score in both halves	27.6%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
St. Pauli to score in both halves	22.1%	21.6%	—	—	4.64

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	57.3%	58.6%	59.8%	0.98×	1.71
Only Hertha Berlin scores	21.1%	22.2%	13.2%	1.69×	4.50
Only St. Pauli scores	15.1%	16.0%	21.1%	0.76×	6.25
Neither team scores	6.4%	7.1%	6.3%	1.12×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.1%	22.6%	20.9%	1.08×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	24.6%	0.92×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	15.8%	17.5%	14.1%	1.24×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.7%	17.5%	16.6%	1.05×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	8.9%	7.6%	9.1%	0.83×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	6.4%	7.6%	6.3%	1.20×	13.14
6 or more goals	6.7%	7.6%	9.1%	0.83×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.2%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	31.2%	35.8%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	21.3%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	11.4%	10.7%	—	—	9.35

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	49.4%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	31.3%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	19.3%	16.5%	—	—	6.05

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli not to win both halves	92.6%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Hertha Berlin not to win both halves	88.3%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Hertha Berlin to win both halves	11.7%	12.1%	—	—	8.27
St. Pauli to win both halves	7.4%	5.9%	—	—	16.99

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin to win either half	56.8%	59.0%	—	—	1.69
St. Pauli to win neither half	53.3%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
St. Pauli to win either half	46.7%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Hertha Berlin to win neither half	43.2%	41.0%	—	—	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli not to win to nil	84.9%	83.1%	78.9%	1.05×	1.20
Hertha Berlin not to win to nil	78.9%	78.1%	86.8%	0.90×	1.28
Hertha Berlin to win to nil	21.1%	21.9%	13.2%	1.66×	4.57
St. Pauli to win to nil	15.1%	16.9%	21.1%	0.80×	5.93

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.9%	27.9%	26.0%	1.07×	3.59
Hertha Berlin by 1	21.2%	24.1%	18.0%	1.34×	4.15
St. Pauli by 1	17.7%	17.1%	21.1%	0.81×	5.87
Hertha Berlin by 2	12.9%	11.8%	7.1%	1.65×	8.51
St. Pauli by 2	9.1%	7.2%	13.0%	0.55×	13.90
Hertha Berlin by 3+	8.5%	7.2%	6.2%	1.16×	13.90
St. Pauli by 3+	4.7%	2.7%	9.4%	0.29×	36.76