St. Pauli v Union Berlin — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 November 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 8
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 7
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.16
Goals − xG
-0.57 – +0.60
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.St. Pauli win
25.7%
Draw
27.9%
Union Berlin win
46.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
Union Berlin have scored 16 from 14.7 expected and conceded 23 from 23.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLLDWWDL last 10
scored 16
from 14.7 xG
conceded 23
from 23.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.01–1.44 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.26–1.14 | 1-1 13% | 43% | 49% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
St. Pauli 0.57 xGUnion Berlin 0.40 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
St. Pauli attacking right
Union Berlin attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 St. Pauli |
Joel Chima Fujita | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' |
 Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 28' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 29' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andréas Hountondji |
| 38' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Leopold Querfeld |
| 38' |
Union Berlin |
Tom Rothe | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 40' |
Union Berlin |
Tom Rothe | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Oliver Burke |
| 43' |
Union Berlin |
Rani Khedira | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 43' |
Union Berlin |
Rani Khedira | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Andrej Ilic |
| 59' |
St. Pauli |
Joel Chima Fujita | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jackson Irvine |
| 62' |
St. Pauli |
Hauke Wahl | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Louis Oppie |
| 64' |
St. Pauli |
Louis Oppie | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | James Sands |
| 73' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Danel Sinani |
| 82' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joel Chima Fujita |
| 83' |
St. Pauli |
Eric Smith | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | James Sands |
| 84' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 90' |
St. Pauli |
James Sands | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 90' |
Union Berlin |
Tim Skarke | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Kral |
Players
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rani Khedira MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Christopher Trimmel DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Diogo Leite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ilyas Ansah AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom Rothe DML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Oliver Burke AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Aljoscha Kemlein MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrej Ilic FW | 68 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Alex Kral Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Derrick Köhn Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Janik Haberer Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tim Skarke Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pereira Lage FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Eric Smith DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Hauke Wahl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Sands MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Louis Oppie DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| Joel Chima Fujita MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Karol Mets DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Arkadiusz Pyrka DMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jackson Irvine MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Andréas Hountondji FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Danel Sinani Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Abdoulie Ceesay Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Connor Metcalfe Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Martijn Kaars Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |