St. Pauli v VfB Stuttgart — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 8
On target
7 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 6
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.92 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.33 – +0.09
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.St. Pauli win
18.4%
Draw
27.4%
VfB Stuttgart win
54.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
VfB Stuttgart are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDWDLWLLWL last 10
scored 17
from 22.3 xG
conceded 17
from 23.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.88–1.65 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.94–1.66 | 0-1 12% | 48% | 49% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
St. Pauli 1.67 xGVfB Stuttgart 0.91 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
St. Pauli attacking right
VfB Stuttgart attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 St. Pauli |
Karol Mets | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
St. Pauli |
Mathias Rasmussen | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martijn Kaars |
| 11' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 18' |
St. Pauli |
Martijn Kaars | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | James Sands |
| 22' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mathias Rasmussen |
| 23' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Chris Führich |
| 28' |
St. Pauli |
Arkadiusz Pyrka | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jackson Irvine |
| 32' |
St. Pauli |
Arkadiusz Pyrka | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
St. Pauli |
Martijn Kaars | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Manolis Saliakas |
| 34' |
St. Pauli |
Manolis Saliakas | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Arkadiusz Pyrka |
| 41' |
St. Pauli |
James Sands | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arkadiusz Pyrka |
| 54' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 58' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ermedin Demirovic |
| 62' |
St. Pauli |
James Sands | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 79' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Lorenz Assignon | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
St. Pauli |
Martijn Kaars | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arkadiusz Pyrka |
| 83' |
St. Pauli |
Jackson Irvine | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 85' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arkadiusz Pyrka |
| 85' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chema Andres | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jeremy Arévalo |
| 89' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jeremy Arévalo | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Chema Andres |
| 93' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jeremy Arévalo | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
Players
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deniz Undav AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Ramon Hendriks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| Finn Jeltsch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Angelo Stiller DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Atakan Karazor DMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Ermedin Demirovic FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Chris Führich AML | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.03 | 0.33 |
| Joshua Vagnoman DR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Bilal El Khannouss AMR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jamie Leweling Sub | 43 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lorenz Assignon Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Badredine Bouanani Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeremy Arévalo Sub | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| Chema Andres Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.16 |
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danel Sinani AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.82 | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| Martijn Kaars FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.02 | 0.52 |
| James Sands MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| Arkadiusz Pyrka DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.08 | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| Manolis Saliakas DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.23 |
| Jackson Irvine MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.34 |
| Mathias Rasmussen AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Karol Mets DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Adam Dzwigala DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tomoya Ando DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Taichi Hara Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lars Ritzka Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |