St. Pauli v VfL Wolfsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 12 September 2026 · GER-2. Bundesliga · 2627
GER-2. Bundesliga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 0-2 10.1%
- 1-2 9.9%
- 1-1 9.9%
- 0-1 9.5%
- 0-3 7.0%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 58.8% | Under 2.5 | 41.2% |
| BTTS yes | 55.0% | BTTS no | 45.0% |
| St. Pauli 1+ | 62.5% | St. Pauli 2+ | 25.8% |
| VfL Wolfsburg 1+ | 87.4% | VfL Wolfsburg 2+ | 61.2% |
Expected goals 0.98 – 2.07. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- VfL Wolfsburg carry the stronger rating, 1547 Elo against 1319.
- Form is good: 2.33 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- The model's measured edge in this competition is 0.0041 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
- VfL Wolfsburg have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
VfL Wolfsburg have an estimated 62.1% win probability, against 21.1% for the draw and 16.8% for St. Pauli. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.98 for St. Pauli and 2.07 for VfL Wolfsburg.
Why St. Pauli
Nothing in the data singles out St. Pauli.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 21.1%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.
Why VfL Wolfsburg can win
VfL Wolfsburg carry the stronger rating, 1547 Elo against 1319. Form is good: 2.33 points a match from the last five.
Key players
St. Pauli's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Danel Sinani (0.27), Ricky-Jade Jones (0.26), Andréas Hountondji (0.26).
Availability
2 of St. Pauli's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for VfL Wolfsburg, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
St. Pauli: 45% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.56 xG a match from set pieces. VfL Wolfsburg: 57% possession, 21.3 shots a match, 13.3 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·
VfL Wolfsburg are the model's most likely outcome at 62.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-2 at 10.1%. Confidence 20/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 0.98–2.07 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 0.84–1.90 | 0-1 12% | 52% | 49% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.