Stade Nyonnais v Neuchâtel Xamax — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · SUI-Challenge League · 2627

SUI-Challenge League results-only Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 19:28 UTC

Stade Nyonnais

1–3

17:30 UTC

Neuchâtel Xamax

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 11 Sep, 11:38 · 6h before kick-off

Stade Nyonnais win

23.9%

model 24.5%

Draw

27.5%

model 28.8%

Neuchâtel Xamax win

48.6%

model 46.7%

242749

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (5,541 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.8%
1-2 9.4%
0-1 8.8%
0-0 8.7%
0-2 8.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	50.6%	Under 2.5	49.4%
BTTS yes	55.3%	BTTS no	44.7%
Stade Nyonnais 1+	66.9%	Stade Nyonnais 2+	30.3%
Neuchâtel Xamax 1+	79.7%	Neuchâtel Xamax 2+	47.3%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.59. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

27/100

Data quality

30/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Neuchâtel Xamax (DNB)

Draw no bet · usually 43%

67.1% fair odds 1.49

strong signal · 3256 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time

82.6% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1603 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Away from home Neuchâtel Xamax average 1.35 xG a match.
They have had 14 days' rest to Stade Nyonnais's 5.

Risk factors

Data quality is 30/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Stade Nyonnais have only 1 matches on record.
Neuchâtel Xamax have only 0 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Neuchâtel Xamax have an estimated 48.6% win probability, against 27.5% for the draw and 23.9% for Stade Nyonnais. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.11 for Stade Nyonnais and 1.59 for Neuchâtel Xamax.

Why Stade Nyonnais

At home Stade Nyonnais average 1.35 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.5%.

Why Neuchâtel Xamax can win

Away from home Neuchâtel Xamax average 1.35 xG a match. They have had 14 days' rest to Stade Nyonnais's 5.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Stade Nyonnais, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Neuchâtel Xamax, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Stade Nyonnais: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Neuchâtel Xamax: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·

Neuchâtel Xamax are the model's most likely outcome at 48.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.8%. Confidence 27/100, data quality 30/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	242947	1.11–1.59	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
ai-blend-oos	242848	1.18–1.74	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
dc-xg	213049	0.96–1.55	1-1 14%	46%	50%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax to win	49.0%	47.6%	33.2%	1.43×	2.10
Draw	29.6%	27.7%	22.6%	1.23×	3.61
Stade Nyonnais to win	21.4%	24.6%	44.7%	0.55×	4.07

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax & not both score	28.3%	25.5%	14.3%	1.78×	3.93
Neuchâtel Xamax & both teams score	20.8%	21.8%	19.4%	1.12×	4.60
Draw & both teams score	19.4%	18.0%	16.6%	1.09×	5.55
Stade Nyonnais & not both score	11.1%	13.3%	22.6%	0.59×	7.55
Stade Nyonnais & both teams score	10.3%	13.2%	22.6%	0.59×	7.55
Draw & not both score	10.2%	13.2%	6.5%	2.05×	7.55

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax & over 1.5	38.4%	34.7%	29.5%	1.18×	2.89
Neuchâtel Xamax & under 3.5	34.9%	31.1%	21.2%	1.47×	3.22
Neuchâtel Xamax & over 2.5	28.6%	25.9%	23.0%	1.13×	3.85
Draw & under 2.5	24.3%	21.6%	14.7%	1.47×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	24.3%	21.6%	14.7%	1.47×	4.63
Neuchâtel Xamax & under 2.5	20.5%	21.6%	10.6%	2.04×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.4%	18.0%	16.6%	1.08×	5.57
Stade Nyonnais & under 3.5	16.6%	18.0%	30.4%	0.59×	5.57
Stade Nyonnais & over 1.5	15.5%	18.0%	36.4%	0.49×	5.57
Neuchâtel Xamax & over 3.5	14.2%	12.9%	12.4%	1.03×	7.78
Stade Nyonnais & over 2.5	11.8%	12.9%	30.4%	0.42×	7.78
Neuchâtel Xamax & under 1.5	10.7%	12.9%	4.1%	3.10×	7.78
Draw & under 1.5	10.2%	12.9%	6.5%	1.99×	7.78
Stade Nyonnais & under 2.5	9.6%	8.0%	14.7%	0.54×	12.57
Stade Nyonnais & under 1.5	5.8%	8.0%	8.8%	0.91×	12.57
Draw & over 2.5	5.3%	8.0%	8.3%	0.96×	12.57
Draw & over 3.5	5.3%	8.0%	8.3%	0.96×	12.57
Stade Nyonnais & over 3.5	4.8%	4.9%	14.7%	0.33×	20.57

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax (1UP)	63.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Stade Nyonnais (1UP)	38.7%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax (2UP)	49.0%	50.0%	—	—	2.00
Stade Nyonnais (2UP)	21.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax to win 2nd half	42.5%	41.1%	—	—	2.43
2nd half drawn	37.5%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Stade Nyonnais to win 2nd half	20.1%	23.0%	—	—	4.35

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax under 1.5 in 2nd half	76.3%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Neuchâtel Xamax over 0.5 in 2nd half	60.4%	58.9%	—	—	1.70
Neuchâtel Xamax under 0.5 in 2nd half	39.6%	41.1%	—	—	2.43
Neuchâtel Xamax over 1.5 in 2nd half	23.7%	20.5%	—	—	4.87

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stade Nyonnais under 1.5 in 2nd half	89.6%	88.2%	—	—	1.13
Stade Nyonnais under 0.5 in 2nd half	58.0%	58.9%	—	—	1.70
Stade Nyonnais over 0.5 in 2nd half	42.0%	41.1%	—	—	2.43
Stade Nyonnais over 1.5 in 2nd half	10.4%	11.8%	—	—	8.45

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax (+2.5)	97.8%	96.3%	88.5%	1.09×	1.04
Neuchâtel Xamax (+1.5)	91.9%	92.1%	78.8%	1.17×	1.09
Neuchâtel Xamax (+0.5)	78.6%	78.4%	55.3%	1.42×	1.28
Stade Nyonnais (+0.5)	51.0%	52.1%	66.8%	0.78×	1.92
Neuchâtel Xamax (-0.5)	49.0%	47.9%	33.2%	1.45×	2.09
Stade Nyonnais (-0.5)	21.4%	21.6%	44.7%	0.48×	4.62
Stade Nyonnais (-1.5)	8.1%	7.9%	21.2%	0.37×	12.69
Stade Nyonnais (-2.5)	2.2%	3.7%	11.5%	0.32×	26.91

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax to concede	61.6%	67.9%	79.7%	0.85×	1.47
Neuchâtel Xamax clean sheet	38.4%	32.1%	20.3%	1.58×	3.12

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax clean sheet in 1st half	66.3%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
Neuchâtel Xamax to concede in 1st half	33.7%	30.8%	—	—	3.25

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax clean sheet in 2nd half	58.0%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Neuchâtel Xamax to concede in 2nd half	42.0%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax under 3.5 goals	92.9%	92.2%	93.5%	0.99×	1.09
Neuchâtel Xamax under 2.5 goals	79.8%	76.1%	82.9%	0.92×	1.31
Neuchâtel Xamax over 0.5 goals	78.7%	76.1%	71.4%	1.07×	1.31
Neuchâtel Xamax under 1.5 goals	54.3%	53.6%	56.7%	0.95×	1.87
Neuchâtel Xamax over 1.5 goals	45.7%	46.4%	43.3%	1.07×	2.15
Neuchâtel Xamax under 0.5 goals	21.3%	23.9%	28.6%	0.84×	4.19
Neuchâtel Xamax over 2.5 goals	20.2%	23.9%	17.1%	1.40×	4.19
Neuchâtel Xamax over 3.5 goals	7.1%	7.8%	6.5%	1.21×	12.82

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax under 1.5 in 1st half	87.2%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Neuchâtel Xamax under 0.5 in 1st half	53.9%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Neuchâtel Xamax over 0.5 in 1st half	46.1%	44.2%	—	—	2.26
Neuchâtel Xamax over 1.5 in 1st half	12.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.06

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax scores more in 2nd half	41.2%	43.8%	—	—	2.29
Neuchâtel Xamax scores equally in both	35.4%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Neuchâtel Xamax scores more in 1st half	23.4%	22.4%	—	—	4.46

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	58.0%	57.4%	33.6%	1.71×	1.74
Stade Nyonnais (away no bet)	42.0%	42.6%	66.4%	0.64×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax even goals	52.3%	52.8%	58.5%	0.90×	1.90
Neuchâtel Xamax odd goals	47.7%	47.2%	41.5%	1.14×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.1%	87.7%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.9%	12.3%	—	—	8.16

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	59.9%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Both halves under 1.5 goals	40.1%	39.4%	—	—	2.54

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	52.2%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
Neuchâtel Xamax to score 2+ in a row	38.8%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.2%	16.3%	—	—	6.13
Stade Nyonnais to score 2+ in a row	18.0%	16.3%	—	—	6.13
Neuchâtel Xamax to score 3+ in a row	14.4%	12.2%	—	—	8.19
Stade Nyonnais to score 3+ in a row	4.0%	2.6%	—	—	38.19

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.1%	11.4%	8.8%	1.30×	8.80
0-1	10.7%	11.4%	4.1%	2.74×	8.80
0-0	10.2%	11.4%	6.5%	1.76×	8.80
0-2	9.8%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.52
1-2	9.4%	7.4%	8.3%	0.89×	13.53
0-3	5.0%	7.4%	3.2%	2.29×	13.53
1-0	5.8%	7.4%	8.8%	0.84×	13.53
2-1	5.8%	7.4%	12.0%	0.62×	13.53
0-4	1.9%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	57.67
1-3	4.8%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	57.65
1-4	1.9%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	57.67
2-0	3.7%	1.7%	6.5%	0.27×	57.66
2-2	4.5%	1.7%	6.9%	0.25×	57.66
2-3	2.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	57.67
2-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.8%	0.94×	57.67
3-0	1.2%	1.7%	4.6%	0.38×	57.67
3-1	1.8%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	57.67
3-2	1.4%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	57.67
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	1.8%	0.94×	57.68
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	57.68
4-0	0.3%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	57.68
4-1	0.4%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	57.68
4-2	0.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	57.68
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.76×	57.68
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.76×	57.68
Any other score	2.4%	1.7%	7.4%	0.24×	57.67

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax (2nd half DNB)	67.9%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Stade Nyonnais (2nd half DNB)	32.1%	30.1%	—	—	3.32

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax leading at HT (DNB)	62.8%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Stade Nyonnais leading at HT (DNB)	37.2%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax or draw (X2)	78.6%	75.4%	55.3%	1.36×	1.33
Stade Nyonnais or Neuchâtel Xamax (12)	70.4%	72.3%	77.4%	0.93×	1.38
Stade Nyonnais or draw (1X)	51.0%	52.4%	66.8%	0.78×	1.91

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax or draw at HT	79.9%	80.1%	—	—	1.25
Stade Nyonnais or draw at HT	66.2%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
Stade Nyonnais or Neuchâtel Xamax at HT	53.9%	47.8%	—	—	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax or draw (1UP)	78.6%	84.0%	—	—	1.19
Stade Nyonnais or draw (1UP)	51.0%	59.1%	—	—	1.69

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax or draw in 2nd half	79.9%	77.0%	—	—	1.30
Stade Nyonnais or Neuchâtel Xamax in 2nd half	62.5%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Stade Nyonnais or draw in 2nd half	57.5%	58.9%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.1%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	35.9%	38.3%	—	—	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax (DNB)	69.6%	66.9%	42.6%	1.57×	1.50
Stade Nyonnais (DNB)	30.4%	33.1%	57.4%	0.58×	3.02

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax to score first	55.5%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Stade Nyonnais to score first	34.3%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
No goal scored	10.2%	9.4%	—	—	10.59

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	50.4%	51.6%	57.6%	0.90×	1.94
Not both teams to score	49.6%	48.4%	42.4%	1.14×	2.07

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	40.3%	41.7%	30.9%	1.35×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	36.3%	38.6%	49.3%	0.78×	2.59
Both score & under 2.5	14.1%	12.3%	8.8%	1.40×	8.15
Not both score & over 2.5	9.3%	8.4%	12.0%	0.70×	11.93

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.7%	85.5%	81.6%	1.05×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	11.3%	14.5%	18.4%	0.79×	6.88

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	73.9%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	26.1%	25.9%	—	—	3.87

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	62.0%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
Both score 2nd half only	22.1%	20.8%	—	—	4.80
Both score 1st half only	11.9%	10.7%	—	—	9.33
Both score in both halves	3.9%	5.0%	—	—	19.93

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.1%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	15.9%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	50.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
A half without a goal	49.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	49.0%	46.9%	47.5%	0.99×	2.13
0-1 goals	26.7%	26.9%	18.4%	1.46×	3.71
4-6 goals	22.8%	23.0%	30.4%	0.76×	4.34
7+ goals	1.4%	1.9%	4.6%	0.40×	54.07

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax to score exactly 1	33.0%	33.7%	28.6%	1.18×	2.97
Neuchâtel Xamax to score exactly 2	25.5%	27.6%	26.7%	1.03×	3.63
Neuchâtel Xamax to score exactly 0	21.3%	22.5%	28.6%	0.79×	4.45
Neuchâtel Xamax to score 3+	20.2%	22.5%	17.1%	1.32×	4.45

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stade Nyonnais to score exactly 0	38.4%	35.5%	20.3%	1.75×	2.81
Stade Nyonnais to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.5%	31.8%	1.12×	2.81
Stade Nyonnais to score exactly 2	17.6%	19.2%	26.3%	0.73×	5.22
Stade Nyonnais to score 3+	7.2%	10.5%	22.6%	0.46×	9.56

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	46.1%	52.2%	—	—	1.91
Neuchâtel Xamax leading at HT	33.8%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
Stade Nyonnais leading at HT	20.1%	19.9%	—	—	5.02

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax -1: 1	51.0%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Neuchâtel Xamax -1: 2	26.4%	26.6%	—	—	3.76
Neuchâtel Xamax -1: X	22.6%	23.6%	—	—	4.23

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax (0:1)	78.6%	73.8%	55.3%	1.33×	1.36
Draw (0:1)	13.3%	13.9%	24.0%	0.58×	7.17
Stade Nyonnais (0:1)	8.1%	9.1%	21.2%	0.43×	10.96

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax (0:2)	91.9%	91.0%	78.8%	1.15×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	6.0%	7.7%	10.1%	0.76×	13.02
Stade Nyonnais (0:2)	2.2%	3.8%	11.5%	0.33×	26.53

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax (0:3)	97.8%	96.6%	88.5%	1.09×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	1.7%	2.4%	6.9%	0.34×	42.38
Stade Nyonnais (0:3)	0.5%	2.4%	5.1%	0.46×	42.43

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax (0:4)	99.5%	98.1%	94.9%	1.03×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	3.2%	0.38×	81.79
Stade Nyonnais (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	2.3%	0.53×	81.82

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stade Nyonnais (1:0)	51.0%	53.2%	66.8%	0.80×	1.88
Neuchâtel Xamax (1:0)	26.4%	25.2%	19.4%	1.30×	3.98
Draw (1:0)	22.6%	21.7%	14.3%	1.52×	4.60

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stade Nyonnais (2:0)	73.6%	75.6%	80.6%	0.94×	1.32
Draw (2:0)	15.6%	15.4%	14.3%	1.08×	6.49
Neuchâtel Xamax (2:0)	10.8%	10.4%	5.5%	1.88×	9.63

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.7%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
Halves equal	29.2%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	25.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stade Nyonnais to concede	78.7%	76.3%	71.4%	1.07×	1.31
Stade Nyonnais clean sheet	21.3%	23.7%	28.6%	0.83×	4.22

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stade Nyonnais clean sheet in 1st half	53.9%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Stade Nyonnais to concede in 1st half	46.1%	44.2%	—	—	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stade Nyonnais to concede in 2nd half	60.4%	58.7%	—	—	1.70
Stade Nyonnais clean sheet in 2nd half	39.6%	41.3%	—	—	2.42

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stade Nyonnais under 3.5 goals	98.4%	96.3%	90.3%	1.07×	1.04
Stade Nyonnais under 2.5 goals	92.8%	92.1%	77.4%	1.19×	1.09
Stade Nyonnais under 1.5 goals	75.2%	77.4%	51.6%	1.50×	1.29
Stade Nyonnais over 0.5 goals	61.6%	63.3%	79.7%	0.79×	1.58
Stade Nyonnais under 0.5 goals	38.4%	36.7%	20.3%	1.81×	2.72
Stade Nyonnais over 1.5 goals	24.8%	22.6%	48.4%	0.47×	4.43
Stade Nyonnais over 2.5 goals	7.2%	7.9%	22.6%	0.35×	12.70
Stade Nyonnais over 3.5 goals	1.6%	3.7%	9.7%	0.38×	27.06

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stade Nyonnais under 1.5 in 1st half	93.5%	95.5%	—	—	1.05
Stade Nyonnais under 0.5 in 1st half	66.3%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Stade Nyonnais over 0.5 in 1st half	33.7%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Stade Nyonnais over 1.5 in 1st half	6.5%	4.5%	—	—	22.19

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stade Nyonnais scores equally in both	47.5%	47.1%	—	—	2.13
Stade Nyonnais scores more in 2nd half	30.8%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Stade Nyonnais scores more in 1st half	21.7%	21.5%	—	—	4.65

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax (home no bet)	62.4%	59.9%	59.5%	1.01×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	37.6%	40.1%	40.5%	0.99×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stade Nyonnais even goals	57.4%	55.4%	51.2%	1.08×	1.81
Stade Nyonnais odd goals	42.6%	44.6%	48.8%	0.91×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	36.1%	38.5%	—	—	2.60
HT 0-1	21.7%	24.2%	—	—	4.14
HT 1-0	14.3%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 1-1	9.4%	7.1%	—	—	13.99
HT 0-2	6.8%	7.1%	—	—	14.03
Any other HT score	3.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.46
HT 2-0	3.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.48
HT 1-2	2.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.50
HT 2-1	1.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.57
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.66

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax at HT / Neuchâtel Xamax at FT	27.8%	27.0%	—	—	3.70
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	19.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Neuchâtel Xamax at FT	18.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Stade Nyonnais at HT / Stade Nyonnais at FT	11.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Stade Nyonnais at FT	8.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.64
Stade Nyonnais at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.73
Neuchâtel Xamax at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.74
Stade Nyonnais at HT / Neuchâtel Xamax at FT	2.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.81
Neuchâtel Xamax at HT / Stade Nyonnais at FT	1.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.87

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax to score last	55.7%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Stade Nyonnais to score last	34.1%	33.0%	—	—	3.03
No goal scored	10.2%	8.8%	—	—	11.32

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	89.8%	91.0%	—	—	1.10
Neuchâtel Xamax to lead by 1 at any time	63.2%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	44.2%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Stade Nyonnais to lead by 1 at any time	38.7%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Neuchâtel Xamax to lead by 2 at any time	32.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.74
Neuchâtel Xamax to lead by 3 at any time	12.8%	10.5%	—	—	9.55
Stade Nyonnais to lead by 2 at any time	12.3%	10.5%	—	—	9.56
Stade Nyonnais to lead by 3 at any time	3.0%	1.6%	—	—	61.39

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.6%	87.4%	84.3%	1.04×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.9%	78.5%	77.0%	1.02×	1.27
2-6 goals	71.9%	72.3%	77.4%	0.93×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.1%	68.9%	72.4%	0.95×	1.45
1-3 goals	65.5%	68.8%	59.4%	1.16×	1.45
2-4 goals	62.4%	63.2%	65.0%	0.97×	1.58
2-3 goals	49.0%	48.5%	47.5%	1.02×	2.06
3-6 goals	44.2%	43.6%	56.7%	0.77×	2.29
1-2 goals	44.2%	43.6%	33.2%	1.31×	2.29
3-5 goals	41.4%	43.6%	51.6%	0.84×	2.30
3-4 goals	34.8%	35.3%	44.2%	0.80×	2.83
4-6 goals	22.8%	24.8%	30.4%	0.81×	4.04
4-5 goals	20.1%	24.8%	25.3%	0.98×	4.04
5-6 goals	9.5%	9.0%	12.9%	0.70×	11.14
7+ goals	1.4%	2.6%	4.6%	0.56×	39.01

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neuchâtel Xamax never behind	51.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Stade Nyonnais never behind	26.6%	30.0%	—	—	3.33

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	45.7%	51.0%	49.3%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	54.3%	49.0%	50.7%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	42.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.0%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.0%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.8%	95.4%	90.3%	1.06×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	89.8%	87.5%	93.5%	0.93×	1.14
Under 4.5 goals	89.1%	87.5%	82.9%	1.05×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	75.7%	77.2%	65.4%	1.18×	1.30
Over 1.5 goals	73.3%	72.4%	81.6%	0.89×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	54.4%	53.0%	39.2%	1.35×	1.89
Over 2.5 goals	45.6%	47.0%	60.8%	0.77×	2.13
Under 1.5 goals	26.7%	27.6%	18.4%	1.50×	3.62
Over 3.5 goals	24.3%	22.8%	34.6%	0.66×	4.39
Over 4.5 goals	10.9%	12.5%	17.1%	0.74×	7.97
Under 0.5 goals	10.2%	12.5%	6.5%	1.94×	7.97
Over 5.5 goals	4.2%	4.6%	9.7%	0.48×	21.75

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.5%	97.2%	95.1%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.5%	97.2%	89.6%	1.08×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	87.4%	86.6%	79.3%	1.09×	1.16
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	69.1%	67.7%	53.1%	1.27×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	63.1%	61.6%	76.7%	0.80×	1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	36.9%	38.4%	23.3%	1.65×	2.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	30.9%	32.3%	46.9%	0.69×	3.09
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	12.6%	13.4%	20.7%	0.65×	7.47
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.5%	2.9%	10.4%	0.27×	35.08
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.5%	2.8%	4.9%	0.59×	35.16

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.4%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	72.2%	71.2%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	63.9%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	36.1%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half	27.8%	28.8%	—	—	3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.6%	7.4%	—	—	13.58

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	81.6%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	76.4%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	56.0%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	44.0%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	23.6%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	18.4%	17.3%	—	—	5.79

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stade Nyonnais not to score in both halves	85.8%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Neuchâtel Xamax not to score in both halves	72.1%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Neuchâtel Xamax to score in both halves	27.9%	26.3%	—	—	3.81
Stade Nyonnais to score in both halves	14.2%	14.3%	—	—	6.99

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	50.4%	54.2%	57.6%	0.94×	1.85
Only Neuchâtel Xamax scores	28.3%	26.1%	14.3%	1.83×	3.83
Only Stade Nyonnais scores	11.1%	11.1%	22.6%	0.49×	9.02
Neither team scores	10.2%	11.1%	6.5%	1.72×	9.02

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.6%	24.7%	21.2%	1.16×	4.05
Exactly 3 goals	21.4%	22.4%	26.7%	0.84×	4.46
Exactly 1 goals	16.5%	17.5%	12.4%	1.41×	5.70
Exactly 4 goals	13.4%	12.1%	18.0%	0.67×	8.30
Exactly 0 goals	10.2%	12.0%	6.5%	1.87×	8.30
Exactly 5 goals	6.7%	7.8%	7.8%	0.99×	12.86
6 or more goals	4.2%	4.5%	9.7%	0.46×	22.23

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	36.1%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
1 goal in 1st half	36.1%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
2 goals in 1st half	19.3%	15.3%	—	—	6.54
3+ goals in 1st half	8.6%	7.4%	—	—	13.58

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	44.0%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	32.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	23.6%	23.1%	—	—	4.33

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stade Nyonnais not to win both halves	95.8%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Neuchâtel Xamax not to win both halves	85.3%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Neuchâtel Xamax to win both halves	14.7%	12.2%	—	—	8.22
Stade Nyonnais to win both halves	4.2%	2.8%	—	—	35.46

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stade Nyonnais to win neither half	64.1%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
Neuchâtel Xamax to win either half	61.6%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Neuchâtel Xamax to win neither half	38.4%	35.0%	—	—	2.86
Stade Nyonnais to win either half	35.9%	34.9%	—	—	2.87

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stade Nyonnais not to win to nil	88.9%	87.9%	77.4%	1.14×	1.14
Neuchâtel Xamax not to win to nil	71.8%	75.2%	85.7%	0.88×	1.33
Neuchâtel Xamax to win to nil	28.3%	24.8%	14.3%	1.74×	4.03
Stade Nyonnais to win to nil	11.1%	12.1%	22.6%	0.53×	8.29

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	29.6%	27.7%	22.6%	1.23×	3.61
Neuchâtel Xamax by 1	22.6%	24.2%	14.3%	1.69×	4.14
Neuchâtel Xamax by 2	15.6%	16.9%	14.3%	1.18×	5.92
Stade Nyonnais by 1	13.3%	11.7%	24.0%	0.49×	8.53
Neuchâtel Xamax by 3+	10.8%	11.7%	5.5%	2.12×	8.53
Stade Nyonnais by 2	6.0%	7.3%	10.1%	0.72×	13.77
Stade Nyonnais by 3+	2.2%	2.8%	11.5%	0.24×	35.62

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.